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Horse Antepost
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These 95 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Oaks 2017
Epsom Oaks 2017
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Replies: 95
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O/T
PTBT is in the Irish 1000G this sunday, will she run?; she is 16/1, and Winter only evens. |
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O/T
Not anymore, PTBT has been taken out but Rhododendron is still in the Irish 1000G no doubt as a precaution just in case something untoward happens to Winter between now and then. |
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Have added a point e/w on Coronet at 9/1 - market seems to be suggesting she may be the Gosden No.1.
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Loads of opinions about the colts Derby but little or none about this female equivalent.
Rhododendron is the Class runner despite finishing 2nd in the 1000G but rated many lbs superior to all the others. At odds of just a shade against, and possibly with the ground to suit (good/firm) a price worth taking for her 1st run over this 12f trip? With her superiority just a case of turning up and collecting 1st prize similar to Minding last year? |
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Be surprised if not ODDS ON by off time. If the BOYS fancy this it certainly will be!
Very very hard to beat, Abdulla pair interesting if ground stays on soft side! |
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Backed Enable after the Cheshire Oaks, posted on the Derby thread. Rhododendron has the more obvious form but she's no Minding, I have her Guineas form 11lbs lower. She didn't have a clear run at Newmarket but in my view it didn't cost her much ground in the end and certainly didn't cost her the race. The Oaks was always on her agenda but she was still seriously trained for the Guineas and I wouldn't bank on her improving on that form. My reading of Enabled's latest win doesn't leave her with much to find and I think she can improve again. Difficult to fancy the rest.
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agree figgis. I'm all over enable, think the prices are all wrong here.
my main concern is the ground, think enable bounced off the quick ground at chester, but if it came up soft I would be concerned. |
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Is the Prix de Diane still the number one target for Sobetsu? She is still quite a big price here.
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sobetsu decision will be made on the amount of rain we getting france is first target but its looking more like she might come ere
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Thanks sinfin, unless the heavens open again the ground here could be bordering on good/good to firm come friday.
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trainer clearly said awhile ago that shes staying in france after winning over there but shes still in here not without backers but they need plenty of rain
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Why the big drift on Enable?
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can only b the amount of rain but surely it wont have soft in the going come friday
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Enable certainly has taken a big walk...never a good sign so close to the race or is it just market manipulation? No new news in the public info (yet).
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Assumed it's the strength in Rhodo's price which has caused the Enable drift. A lot of premature talk about soft ground, led by deceiver-in-chief, the Racing Post. If you can trust the forecast, no rain forecast at Epsom & getting warmer as week progresses, so will end up on the fast side of good unless Cooper gets his hosepipe out. I think Coronet is the dark horse this year. Pretty sure she will relish the trip & be a lot better on better ground - she didn't like the soft going in France lto & was given a tender ride with a view to Epsom no doubt. She really impressed me when she won at HQ last year.
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I'd say it's just a belief by many that the fav virtually only has to turn up to win, as stated on this thread. That belief seems to have been strengthened after Winter followed up on Sunday. It's always been a weak market barring the fav, Rhododendron has traded 4 times the amount traded on the second fav. Hopefully that's not just wishful thinking on my part and the sign of something more concerning instead.
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Beat me to it johnny
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its a good chance for enable backers to get a little bit more on
no one seems interested at the moment |
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Rhododendron prefers good/firm ground thus should it come up soft, and over 4f extra may be a concerned for connections too; she's evens best price, rated head and shoulder over the rest...value?
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She is going to be very difficult to beat.
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I agree if she shows her Guineas form to the pound she'll be hard to beat but it would still put her behind the level of some Oaks winners gone by so it's not an exceptional standard. Looking back at her form last year when she ran to a new peak in the Debutante she definitely ran a bit below that next time when favourite for the Moyglare, with no obvious excuse. She bounced back to form next time in the Fillies Mile but it is possible that she's better with more time between races. I'd also argue that her Guineas second was virtually the same level she showed last year. I have her just 1lb higher so wouldn't class that as real improvement. Whereas Winter made huge improvement since last year. The 1000 Guineas has often been called the final 2yo race and I reckon there's something in that description. There have been a lot of fillies that continued in the 1000 where they left off the year before but then went downhill afterwards. If Rhododendron hasn't really improved since last year I don't think it's guaranteed she'll maintain that level. She's obviously the correct favourite on form shown but I think there are just enough doubts about her to think she's not a bet at the price and she's worth taking on.
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Has the trainer suggested somewhere SOFT ground be an issue for Enable in Oaks?? Not that i think will be Soft.
I cant have it be a problem for her in the slightest.The Dam Concentric Sire is The Magnificent Sadlers Wells who has lots of progeny across the board who do not mind cut.And Gallop all the way to the line!  Nathaniel himself also NO issues there at all.Bookmakers not allowing to go above the Eway price. |
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I'm just giving my opinion that enable would welcome quick ground as she seemed to bounce off the quick ground and looked more in love with it than she did at Newbury.
it's just an opinion nothing more. anyway it looks irrelevant now as she is on the drift so quite possibly a non-runner. |
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Wasnt referring to your post LR just looking for input!My opinion merely differs from yours.All good though!Fav too short for my money round Epsom with plenty to run.
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Final Declarations (10) Alluringly, Coronet, Daddys Lil Darling, Enable, Horseplay, Isabel De Urbina, Natavia, Pocketfullofdreams, Rhododendron, Sobetsu.
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There is an account on twitter - @AntepostPunter who is 9 out of 10 times correct and beats the mainstream press.
PA Racing has also confirmed those 10 - https://twitter.com/PAracing?lang=en-gb |
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Backed and traded Sobetsu each way..Backed Rhododendrum win and Enable each way.
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Backed Rhododendrum win and Enable each way
Just curious, how would you divide your stakes when the win bet is odds on? |
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got a gud green book with the exception of sobetsu so theres the winner got natavia as the best winner gud luck to all
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Assumed 4/5 and 7/1 respectively.£400 Rhododendrum and £90 Enable plus the place to return £140.Win outlay £490 return if win £720 ish. If lose then hope Sobetsu wins if not then so be it.
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Sorry, wasn't being nosey about your stakes, that's your business. Was just curious about the percentage split at the prices.
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Two proper group 1 races this afternoon, any stamina deficiencies ruthlessly exposed, proper class coming to the fore, the Oaks a classic renewal and a top class winner, the runner up not quite getting home but would have won many a renewal.
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Very pleasing.
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brilliant call uncle, figgis and others.
now sitting on a double enable/cracksman- hoping for a gosden double |
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followed figgis in as such a good tipster- just hope he's wrong about cliffs of moher
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Yep good call Figgis. The going looks fine for COM tomorrow too.
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Cheers lads. Well done unc. Yes Howellsy, looks a really good time performance from Enable and the rain hadn't really got into the ground even by the last race. Let's hope it stays that way. Thought that was probably the more difficult part of the double, but it doesn't always turn out that way.
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thought you put Enable up
Figgis. wd GL |
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She looks a lovely filly, well done backers.
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Well done Figgis. Coronet would have been my biggest winner - didn't seem to act on the track. But Enable a very nice AP result. Backed her at 25-1 after her Newbury 3rd behind Shutter Speed - tenderly handled & look a much likely stayer. Chester obviously confirmed that. Rhodo looks a 10f filly. Always felt they was a stamina doubt there so pleased to see Coolmore set up a true stamina test. btw, why doesn't anyone question the 'team' tactics adopted by Coolmore in these races. Appreciate that pacemakers are adopted by lots of yards; just been Coolmore overstep the mark on this.
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