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Epsom Oaks 2017
Epsom Oaks 2017
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I think should Rhododendron meet Enable again over 12f eg Irish Oaks, and on a flat track, given a clear passage Enable will beat Rhododendron again, why? I do not think Rhododendron stay 12f in a truly run race - she's 8f -> 10f horse; I think Alluringly is the same despite finishing 3rd; the others either did not act on the track and/or ground eg Sobetsu/Coronet, and/or had not achieved much prior eg Natavia and Horseplay.
Enable won it on stamina, and if over 8f -> 10f on good/firm ground I'd side with Rhododendron any time, any day! |
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Rhododendron stayed 12 furlongs perfectly well she was just outstayed by a much stronger stayer with a lot more stamina in her pedigree. Coolmore made a rare tactical error setting too strong a pace and that was always going benefit Enable more than the fav.
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She may well be better over 10 furlongs like Minding but that doesn't mean she didn't stay. It was a long way back to the rest in a very truly run race and I think the winner is very good.
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Coolmore made a rare tactical error setting too strong a pace and that was always going benefit Enable more than the fav.
wrong decision in hindsight but very few knew how good Enable was going to be |
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I did.
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There has been some talk about Rhododendron not staying but I have her running close to her previous best. Her second was good enough to take an average running of the race. Nothing to do with having backed her, but I have that performance by Enable as the best I've seen in an Oaks, certainly the fastest performance when allowances have been made for conditions. I backed her thinking she could just about beat an on form Rhododendron if she made the improvement I thought she was capable of. After watching the race I assumed she ran up to my hopes but Rhododendron must have been a bit below her best. However, after looking at the card in more depth the only conclusion is Enable ran even better than I thought she could.
I have her 5lbs better than Taghrooda when she won the King George. Gosden could target the same race with her and she'd surely be very hard to beat with the allowances. The difference with Taghrooda was she had a fairly comfortable race in her Oaks, whereas Enable's win appeared quite demanding. So the question is whether she'll recover in time. There's a two month gap but even that wasn't enough for Workforce to recover from his Derby exertions. My first thoughts were that Gosden should go for the Irish Derby with her, as on the Epsom form she'd have nothing to fear from those colts, especially with her allowance, but the race might come a bit soon. He might just let her have a relatively easy time of things in her next couple of races against her own sex then aim her for the Arc. If he can keep her fresh for the Autumn she'd have a great chance in my view. |
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Be amazed if Gosden / Abdullah went for the Irish Derby. Fully expect it will be the Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks, Arc route.
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Interesting to see how Enable performs today at the Curragh. I have her Oaks win as the best winning performance in that race for more than 30 years, so she really ought to win this easily. It looked quite a tough race at Epsom but she's had 6 weeks to recover so that should be plenty of time to see her back at her best. Nevertheless, I remember Lady Carla never being the same again after her impressive Oaks win and you never really know how they'll come out of it.
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Didn't beat much but won in great style. Possibly the best middle distance 3yo in Europe? Gosden didn't rule out the King George.
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The best thing about yesterday's race apart from her winning impressively was she was able to do it while running a good 9lbs below her Epsom form, by my reckoning. Ideally you want to win these races without having to run to peak form before facing the bigger targets and that's what happened yesterday. So far so good.
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It's not rocket science I know but I did manage to sneak back the King George stakes I had invested on Enable so if she runs it will be a free bet but it must be doubtful. JG has confounded me at almost every step this season though not running Jack Hobbs in the Eclipse was down to the going. It will be interesting what he does in the KG but I will be away on my hols then so I may just have to do a little guessing before I go. And that goes for Goodwood as well.
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Another insane decision by Gosden. Enable missing the King George along with Cracksman. Why? The Yorkshire Oaks and Great Voltigeur are hardly career making targets ffs. He screwed up Taghrooda by running her in the Yorkshire Oaks. Perhaps he wants to see his wife's horse having less opposition? I cannot believe that. The King George looks there for the taking yet again he has swerved it. Odd isn't the word.
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Would have liked Enable in the KG to give the race a bit more gravitas but her Irish Oaks presence put paid to that, I believe. I think Gosden is trying not to overrun her and keeping her fresh for the Arc; her next race in the Yorkshire Oaks is no plain sailing either with Queens Trust, So Mi Dar (SMD) and possibly Journey in the field, but I shan't be piling into SMD - she was absent each time I bet her; Queens Trust and Journey (in season in her last race) are no pushover either.
The betting here does not inspire confidence that Jack Hobbs will show either - 14/1 compare to 9/2 post his Meydan triumph. However, he might get his ground as precipitation is likely on given long range forecast. Otherwise, game, set and match to Highland Reel, I envisaged (confidently), all things being equal, with/out Idaho. |
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Agree it's a great shame and lost opportunity Enable won't run in the KG. It's a race that seems to lose more lustre every year. Think Johnny G is an excellent trainer but some of the campaigning of his horses is baffling and error-strewn imho - running Jack Hobbs on a road over 10f at R.Ascot, for instance. Coronet would also clearly appreciate a step up in trip so running her in the Irish Oaks was another strange one with Enable looking a steering job. Maybe it is partly the demands of owners?
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You could be right Jr. I think one of his biggest errors this year was not running Cracksman in the Dante. I understand his worry about the going but he decided overnight and his opinion of the going was proved to be completely wrong and that could have cost him the Derby.
I know it is easy to criticise trainers and jockeys but there are times when their decisions are baffling. Why not run Enable in the KG? Dahlia won the Irish Oaks then bolted up in the King George 7 days later. Enable is 6s for the Arc and Highland Reel is 14s now compare that with the King George. It's bonkers. I know Grimthorpe is racing manager for the owner plus Chairman at York so that has to be included in the decision imo. I have the greatest respect for JG as a trainer and he never over hypes his horses but some of his decisions this year have been baffling and potentially costly. If he doesn't run Jack Hobbs in the King George without a strong reason he will have completed the nap hand for me. |
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Ya, a few high profile races for Gosden's charges eg So Mi Dar (Epsom/Sandown), Jack Hobbs (PoW), Enable (KG) and now Cracksman (Voltigeur/no Leger) had left sour tastes for antepost punters and puzzling to most. Why bother running Cracksman in the Voltigeur (but no Leger) if a "racing sabbatical" had been planned for him?
In the Yorkshire Oaks we might see the return of Seventh Heaven (2nd to Jack Hobbs at Meydan but beat Found here last year); Queen's Trust; Journey and Nezwaah - these are no slow coaches. And to battle with her elders 1st time in this company on unsuitable ground (possibly) could mean Enable absent on race day. If so, KG opportunity lost after a facile victory in the Irish Oaks. I'd be totally off Gosden's charges esp antepost for good if Jack Hobbs is absent in the KG even on ground similar to the PoW. |