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nocturnal
24 Dec 16 01:32
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Date Joined: 14 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 5,350 | Blogger: nocturnal's blog
Always an intriguing race,run over the king george cd an hour before,its a chance for the pretenders to strut their stuff.

Plenty of interest in this years renewal,the 4 yr old looks to be improving each race,and we have the forecast 2nd favourite travelling over from the emerald Isle.

Very likely to be run at a fair gallop,the emphasis will be on stamina as the race reaches the final turn.

As a punter we are always looking for weakness,the first 3 in the betting here are unproven over the distance,never having been beyond 21 furlongs.

They may well improve,as novices thats what trainers hope,and build them up for.

Looking through the field,one horse looks way overpriced to me.

Carrachi Apache gets the 40/1 price tag from layers,struggling to see why.

Without regurgitating the form book,his novice hurdle  form with Blacklion/Onenightinvienna is top class.

Both chase starts he has jumped for fun,the fall at newbury looked soft,video hard to see, he may have overjumped.

Obviously been difficult to keep sound,the two flat runs suggest he has been back in through the summer months.

NJH is well known not to overface his novices,whatever happens, his current 135 mark looks lenient,hence the surprise at mondays entry.

Hoping he can transfer that novice form to chasing,if so,he will be dangerous to dismiss.

We shall see,gl all.
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Report GI MAC December 24, 2016 6:59 AM GMT
It's a good renewal with a decent sized field this year, should be a good race. Not one that throws up big price winners mind you, but I see where you're coming from RE Carrachi, rated as high as 146 as a hurdler.

I'm happy taking on the front two in the betting. If Frodon wins after a hard race lto he is some animal, and also Anibale Fly who has never travelled to UK before, trainer is not in good form these days.

I like Hendo's other runner and also Amore Alato who I think will make into a good chaser, but no bet yet in the race as yet.
Report lewisham ranger December 24, 2016 11:28 AM GMT
Anibale Fly was a big eyecatcher for me the way that stayed on last time and both of the sires best horses won over 3 miles plus.
Report nocturnal December 24, 2016 12:32 PM GMT
Fair points Lewisham,the last run was indeed eyecatching,will it be soft enough for this one?

Interested to see times of the first couple races,giving it out as good at present,we will see.

GI.....message sent
Report lewisham ranger December 24, 2016 1:27 PM GMT
i ignore trainer form btw.

Not because it's not relevant but just think as a punter you can overwhelm yourself with too much information at times.
Report lewisham ranger December 24, 2016 1:29 PM GMT
I don't think the ground is an issue for it either. That's another factor in racing that is unlikely to put me off a bet. I'll back what I think is the best horse, people are too obsessed about factors like ground, trainer form etc in my opinion.
Report GI MAC December 24, 2016 4:10 PM GMT
received noc.

guess we all have our methids to find winners lewisham.
Report unclepuncle December 25, 2016 7:47 PM GMT
Anibale Fly is the only one in the field who I could see going on to being a top grade 1 horse in the future (Ryanair / Gold Cup etc) so although unproven at the trip he'd be the pick.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2016 10:45 AM GMT
Backed Virgilio each way.
Report lewisham ranger December 26, 2016 2:33 PM GMT
anibale fly was hopeless

i nearly backed the winner, sums up my year Cry

I think what that race showed was the importance of jumping and staying

the 2 mile 4 furlong horses were nowhere
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