Defi Du Seuill

Lived for 12 years in France and very aware of this filly. Very much doubt it will appear her as the prizemoney and flat tracks make for a bit of a punt for connections.

Looks strong form but what race at Cheltenham?

Could be running against Domperignon Du Lys, Zig Zag, Lord Justice and Coeur De Lion in the JCB Triumph Trial Hurdle at Cheltenham this weekend - a hot race, if so.

It is happening: Defi De Seuill and Domperignon Du Lys running in the 1st  at Cheltenham tomorrow, prices are 4/6 and 15/8 respectively.

Defi De Seuill  definitely the better jumper of the two!

triumph bound take the 8/1 now

Watched the race in VIETNAM!15.5 taken on here and if the race cuts up as in recent years he could be very short as long as the next run is positive.

Read some where it could be ground dependent ef it goes well on softish terrain.

He looks good and he does have proven Cheltenham new course form now, but I was also hugely impressed with the filly Dinaria Des Obeuax on Sunday and took some 20/1 for the Triumph

nice one up

Looks a tough task tomorrow giving weight to Evening Hush but suspect he will be up to the task and confirm himself as an exceptional talent.

I'm worried about trainer form. 2 favs today ran like drains

Exceptional talent, just hope is ok after. Might just have tweaked a few muscles and joints. Now time to close out some positions!

Henderson / McManus horse was hugely impressive in the opener at Kempton.

I've gone back in and doubled my stake on DOD @ 20/1. Nothing like having all your eggs in one basket.

^DDO

Yes the Henderson horse looked a bit handy, always looked like winning and is clearly useful. Not sure about your choice, no real opinion either way. I think DDS just lacked company today but still demolished the field. Hopefully 5s on Friday of the festival, well 2s would be good!

I have not lost faith in Landofhopeandglory and Housesofparliament despite defeat suffered by both yesterday and today; the former was giving 3lbs to Bapaume and Bapaume gained vital ground next to the rails rounding the final bend - Landofhopeandglory had to come wide; the latter was encountering slow/soft/yielding ground at Leopardstown today against Meri Devie (MD) who could be going for the Dawn Run Novice Hurdle like Limini last season. Ruby was reluctant to compare MD with Bapaume given the slow pace of the race and ground today.

I think (and hope) the form of Landofhopeandglory against Bapaume and Mega Fortune could turn out to be the best guide for the Triumph Hurdle.

Still have this feeling a Supreme entry might be made. Should remember this but when is the first entry stage?

1st Entry Stage is 12pm on 31st Jan - end of the month.

Thanks for that. Short in the Supreme market but looks 12 pound clear of anything in the Triumph but the owner has plenty of other options! Taken all bets to zero loss but beginning to feel very uneasy as this horse imho is exceptional and mature in every sense so the Supreme route looks very possible.

I will be amazed if he runs anywhere but Triumph, and a tad poorer, he looks a beast, trainer has always said about this race, things can change I know but the owners Irish horses look vastly inferior

JP has several arrows for the Supreme and Triumph Hurdle best of which is Defi De Seuil who is rated 11lbs clear of the others eg Charli Parcs (139, impressive on debut), Landofhopeandglory (138, closely match with Bapaume, 137) and Housesofparliament (134) who was beaten by Meri Devie (receiving 7lbs) on unsuitable ground on his debut. But he has none for the Supreme Hurdle best of which on rating are Saturnas and Finian's Oscar (both rated 147 but unlikely), next best is Moon Racer (140, present fav).

As both Saturnas and Finian's Oscar are unlikely runners in the Supreme Hurdle Defi De Seuil, if rerouted here, would most likely be fav and have an excellent chance of beating Moon Racer (could go Champion Hurdle too) on rating; even if Saturnas and Finian's Oscar do run Defi De Seuil has the rating to beat both, all things being equal.

Hence, I think it does make sense for JP to run Defi De Seuil in the Supreme especially on softish ground and leave the others in the Triumph and yet has an excellent chance of winning both races, if so. Also, I cannot foresee JP running every one of his juvenile hurdlers in the Triumph Hurdle either.

Interesting impossible123 and think you may be pretty close to the likely outcome. I think DDS is a long way ahead of his Triumph rivals, so does the handicapper but that means he is certain to be very competitive in the Supreme. The noises from Hobbs are clear that the Triumph is the target and Saturday will tell us more. We know who has the final say and as a punter you just have to live with it.

Should read Saturday Week Trials Day.

After Thistlecrack everything is possible in my book now; in this game it is prudent (sometimes) to think outside the box or the norm otherwise one's eggs could be cooked prior to the event, and it could proved very costly and hugely disappointing.

the markets on here definitely point towards the Triumph

Not sure the markets on here have any relevance. Most of it is my money and I don't have a clue what race he will run in.

Why would anyone be talking about this horse running in the Supreme unless of course you haven't backed him for the Triumph?

If the horse is much better than the other juveniles then what is the problem with just winning the Triumph? Why the need to push the boat out?

As stated Hobbs has consistently referred to him as a Triumph horse.

JP owns Defi De Seuil and Charli Parcs both rated 150 and 139 respectively plus a few other juveniles hurdlers who are eligible to run in the Triumph and/or the Supreme; the highest rated horses for the Supreme (if they go there) not owned by JP are Finian's Oscar and Saturnas both on 147. Hence, Defi Du Seuil (JP) could win either, all things being equal, and Charli Parcs (JP) could win the Triumph given his highest rating, and his (2nd string) Landofhopeandglory is rated 2nd best on 138 along with Cliffs Of Dover; Housesofparliament (JP) on 134 could improve significantly given good/firm ground from his 1st run on soft.

Defi Du Seuil is the best horse for both races on rating, and firm fav for the Triumph at 6/1 and 16/1 for the Supreme. I think if the ground is soft or worse connection would be tempted to run Defi Du Seuil in the Supreme; if I was thinking of backing Defi Du Seuil I'd wait for confirmation of target and/or only on a "nrnb" from bookies.

It is not as easy as saying one horse is rated higher than the other so it should go for the Supreme. It isn't unknown for JP to have two runners in the Triumph. That would certainly be the best option for punters. Why would you want to argue a move which benefit bookmakers over ante-post punters? As for the ratings Charli Parcs is a very difficult horse to assess accurately. If anything he looked far more the finished article than Defi Du Seuil. You don't get away with many mistakes in a Supreme. Personally, if I was JP I would go with Any Second Now, who could easily find 7-10lbs, and leave the four-year-olds in the Triumph. That way JP has a very good chance in the Triumph, a good chance in the Supreme and best all ante-post punters aren't shafted.

I just checked the final declarations for the last 6 Supreme Novices and only found one 4y/o in all the entries, it's seems as though it's not the done thing

people cite Binocular as a JPM precedent but:

a) that was 9 years ago (scary!)
b) he got beaten in the Supreme - JPM owned the winner in Captain Cee Bee
c) JPM did n't win the Triumph that year
d) Binocular beat the Triumph winner Celestial Halo by 7 lengths at Aintree 3 weeks later so it would n't have been unreasonable to conclude Binocular would have won the Triumph if he'd run in it meaning JPM would have won both the Supreme and the Triumph that year instead of just the Supreme.

Once bitten, twice shy?

I think if JP was prepared to run a juvenile in the Supreme nine years ago he'd be most likely to do so again this year given the numbers he has ie 8 runners; I also do not think JP can/will rely solely on Any Second Now to win the Supreme for him.

Movewiththetimes might make up into a Supreme contender yet.

There's also the possibility that JP might buy another challenger between now and the Supreme - for example if you look at the entries for the trial race at Haydock on Saturday the majority of them do not have high profile owners so an impressive performance by something there and who knows?

When I started this thread in late November the first thing highlighted was the chance that he was exceptional but his target may well not be the Triumph. I have had some significant bets but thankfully due to Betfair the position on the Triumph is now zero loss, decent win.

I understand differentdrums thoughts but to be honest they are a bit naïve when it comes to top owners and their plans. The connections will always do what they feel is best for the horse in their opinion and antepost punters are of no importance to them and why should they be!

Hopefully he will run in the Triumph but he is a mature Ex French horse and painful as it will be I suspect next Saturday we might get some news we don't want to hear.

He could if he wanted to - he has the means. However, there is absolutely no need - he could easily have at least two if he chooses just by running either Defi Du Seuil and/or Charli Parcs along with Any Second Now; if the former, will have an excellent chance of winning it.

Of all his juvenile hurdlers Defi Du Seuil has the most potential to become his next Champion Hurdle prospect next year should he confirm his form, current rating and progress I believe.

Not naive at all. My immediate reaction after Kempton was to see if any bookmaker was quoting Charli Parcs for the Supreme. Just don't quite understand why punters or media for that matter would want to steer an owner away from a target which at the end of the day is just going to benefit bookmakers and as I said shaft the vast majority of ante-post punters. I am sure JP doesn't really need any 'help' in making a decision.

Was Hobbs naive in continually stating the aim was the Triumph? He might not care two hoots about punters but would McManus want to make his trainer look foolish?

Just because nothing has stood out it doesn't mean the older novices are not better than the juveniles. Relative merits at this stage are guesswork. My guess would be that Any Second Now is actually better than the two juveniles and quite possibly the best long term prospect of the three.

The Supreme and Triumph are very different tests and DDS is much more suited to the Triumph from what I have seen, and I'm sure JP will feel the same.

Hope you are right, imo he is unbeatable in the Triumph if he runs his race but that in itself tells you he would not be out of place in the Supreme

'Unbeatable'.

Big chat that!

Just agreeing with the assessor!

Nice to see there is more money queuing up to back my selection than DDS.
I can already envisage an Our Connor type performance come March.

DDS (6/4) against Charli Parcs (8/11) - form against potential. Have the bookies not got it wrong?

We will only know after the race 123.

One thing i will say, DDS was very clumsy at the last two hurdles at Chepstow, which surprised me. Ok, he may have been getting tired but i don't like to see that in novice hurdlers.
Charlie Parcs looked like he really wanted to get on with the job at Kempton, and looked electric on the good ground. Different conditions for him at Chelts tomorrow.

It's a stonking card and this race is an intriguing opener but for me it's a watching brief, i really like both horses and have won on both of them in the past.
Happy to sit this one out, watch and enjoy.

CP a non runner so shoukd be a cake walk for DDS.

Never in doubt but not especially impressive.

JP will not have all his eggs in one basket and with DDS being the most experienced of his juveniles thus the most likely to go for the Supreme Hurdle, I'd think.

Defi will go Triumph, looks a good thing, its a beast, CP for Supreme

Just back, yet to read anything other than The Beast wont run before the Festival. Not sure good to soft which is now default setting ground at the meeting will hinder him and the Supreme sadly for me remains the most likely target. All could change and after the disgraceful late exit of Charlie doubt if we will be any the wiser until Monday lunchtime raceweek.

Mr Hobbs not bothered about good going for him, He seems sure Triumph is the race

Listened to the interview Deptford and as you say Hobbs was very clear on the target. Good news. Despite the ground he was moving really well from 2 out and looks different class in this age group not allowing for Charli Parcs!

Without a shadow of a doubt Charli Parcs showed enormous potential and still an unknown but we said the same about Jenkins too and he is in the Supreme, all things being equal. On the other hand DDS has adequate experience, if not the most of all JP's juveniles (4yr old), thus I just cannot see him lining-up for the Triumph over Charli Parcs - either of these two will go the Supreme or Triumph but not both, in my opinion - if I was the owner of both. And neither would Hendo (I believe) to have two of his in the same race.

DDS could only beat what were put infront of him and do not forget he is still very much a novice but with the best credentials.

FFS i123 give it a rest. The Triumph is a more gruelling race than tne Supreme so the fact DDS has more experience, including two C&D wins on the Triumph track means he is much more suited to it than Charlie Parcs, not to mention the fact the trainer has said repeatedly the Triumph is the target for DDS.
As for Hendo not having two in the same race - what about Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre who were 2nd and 3rd in the Supreme.

Or Altior and BVD last year ffs.

I think Melon might just have made the Triumph the more likely option.

NWK
Melon is a 5 yr old - I do not think he qualifies. Looks like only us two think DDS is more likely Supreme bound but I have always relished being in the minority, anyway; time will prove whether we are correct or wrong.

In the past I had always thought the Triumph was a more gruelling race however, another poster whose name I had forgotten (sorry!) explained why that had changed, and I accepted the explanation given. Like I have always said, horse racing is mainly about opinions!

Oh ffs i133 you are so gormless.

What Now We Kniw meant is that Melon winning impressively today and becoming a warm order for the Supreme for such strong connections is likely to dissuade them from aiming DDS at the Supreme,

Yes unclepuncle that was what I meant. It feels a bit clearer to me now and would just like to see DDS shorten significantly and I can enjoy the race.

My apology,....I still think the more experienced DDS would participate in the Supreme despite not reflected in the market at present.

Melon may have won pretty impressively(although jumping needs to improve imo)in that maiden,but I don't see a reason why that should sway others where to run their horses.

DDS looks exceptional and it is likely Melon might also be. You should never be put off by one horse but the Triumph is looking like the choice for DDS based on recent comments from connections and he looks some way in front of the known form of his rivals. Melon could be capable of anything.

Why is Melon any different to all the other Mullins talking horses that have fallen by the wayside? I am sure some punters are just backing the stable, over and over again. Anyone would think Mullins had won the last ten renewals. You won't see a worse maiden hurdle run at Leopardstown all season. If you look down the Supreme list it is hard to find a horse who has achieved less than Melon. There must be something wrong with any trainer who might be running scared.

Supreme and Triumph entries as expected. Hopefully not a supplement for the Champion to come

Seems like the world and his wife are tipping up Desire Des Obeaux now and she's down to 10/1 or less.

I'll have a stakes saver on Defi at 4/1 and that should have the race covered nicely. What could possibly go wrong.

^Dinaria Des Obeaux - bloody stupid French names.

60 available for the Supreme so hope that is not an error but a clear indication of running plans.

Nothing today in Ireland to think that DDS should win the Triumph if he runs his race. Quite simply he looks on another planet ability wise.

not!

very happy with my 8/1  as its2/1 in places

Tempting to take a significant profit and dread any bad news or change of plan. He really should win the race but ratings and price already tell you that!

Sounds like Henderson is now aiming CP for the Triumph which makes sense yet he remains stronger in the Supreme betting! Starting to turn DDS to decent profit as he now may go for the Supreme or drift if they both run in the Triumph. Not a bad position to be in but no longer a good thing to run in the race never mind winning.

The market is clearly indicating the Supreme for CP however, I understand Hendo has always favoured the Triumph for him. Now with Housesofparliament on the sideline very unlikely CP and DDS will run in the same race, I reckon.

Tend to agree despite what PH has said. If it is soft raceweek the Supreme will be the target for DDS imo but until the ground is sorted we are still guessing.

If so, PH could have his wish on tuesday - the forecast is unsettled, I believe.

Well I am now done and dusted with a terrific profit. May have another look when we know for sure about which race he runs in but my thinking is that he will be about 2ish in the Triumph so happy to sit back. Likely to be painful if he bolts up but would be horrendous if he fails to show up

Charlie Parcs confirmed for the Triumph. The plot may not have thickened but it has been stirred.

I must be the only person that has not joined his fan club.

Good luck!

Thankfully my work is done but this is a race I am really looking forward to. Hope Defi wins and would love to know how much JP paid for him.

Any chance of DDS heading to the Supreme with the going on tuesday could probably be soft (good to soft the the moment) given the weather forecast this weekend and next? If none, DDS and Charli Parcs crossing swords - interesting.

So Defi and Charlie look like facing each other, great race and one of the best this festival.

At the moment the forecast for friday is favouring DDS rather than Charli Parcs who needs better ground.

Will this supposedly good thing oblige tomorrow after the defeats of Unowhatimeanharry and Neon Wolf? The ground was described as "dead" by a jockey riding for Nichols today, and the winning race times supported this.

Well the day has finally arrived and a great race to look forward to. My feeling with Defi Du Seuil has always been that he is an exceptional talent and nothing puts me off today. Great horses tend to operate on most ground and just feel that we will see another terrific performance. GL all.

Great shout, Now We Know.

booooooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm on defi!!!!

well done all and the OP.

Looks a star.

Defi De Seuil was an awesome winner, and Laddies "bog" a bonus too.

Well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Orsum! Had a strong feeling that the better ground would see him travel and jump better and he really was faultless. He tanked round and just did everything very easily and feel really delighted for Phillip Hobbs who is a total gentleman.

The Arkle might be next because of the maturity factor but after today you have to think he could easily be Champion Hurdle class. Well done to all winners.

Awesome winner, and could be a big player whichever discipline connections might choose for him. Unfortunately, I only managed to win with singles - the doubles/trebles/accas went up in smoke on after wednesday.

arkle next then champion hurdle ^^^^

Think you missed the point Howdi.

Defi De Seuil was the only winning horse I did not have in my antepost portfolio otherwise the outcome would have been significantly better; Death Duty, Unwhatimeanharry and Neon Wolf were big let-downs, the last mentioned a touch unlucky at the last.

Looks like Aintree next which is hardly a surprise. Would wrap him up for next season if he was mine

Next season, Champion Hurdle or Arkle I wonder.

think they are running him so much this season because he's small and lacks scope and they are striking while the iron is hot.

in a way he reminds me of katchit, who was also small and tough and also jazzed up in the triumph. He went on to win the champion hurdle but fizzled out very badly after that and I wonder if that will be the same here.

I think you need to look at him a bit closer Lewisham ranger. He is not massive but far bigger than Top Notch for example and has plenty of scope to jump fences. If he was still French owned he would have might been jumping them as a 3 yo such is the strength of French juveniles. Her has no resemblance with Katchit who was a Lady Rebecca type freak.

The problem impossible123 for next season is that the owner can cover so many bases with his horses so all bets are still on. That is the problem antepost these days as big owners have big strings. If I owned him with a one or two horse situation it would be CH next.

I'd go to the CH with him too given his young age despite the presence of Buveur D'air as I'm still not a fan of the latter despite his cosy win there; I think Yorkhill would be kept over fences too thus the CH would be my choice for DDS next season.

1.34! A decent price unless this is a race too many for the Beast Of Bilbrook.

Perhaps not visually his best performance but it may just have been. For the first time he was asked to go and win a race where there was a chance he might. The response was slightly laboured to start with but not for long. Won eased down and hopefully that will be it for the season.

might not!