Tingle Creek

The betting suggests Douvan is unlikely but Un De Sceaux is probable as WPM needs to keep the two apart over x'mas. No doubt more will be known next week.

Unsure or not whether Ar Mad will turn up, but will have mine if so!

It has been reported that Charlie Moore will have a two-prong Sandown charge for the Tingle Creek with Ar Mad and SDG and both have been backed recently. We'll know for sure by 12pm tomorrow as it is the Confirmation of Entry Stage.

https://youtu.be/qcXMml9khdM

A warrior indeed - view-source:http://www.chroma.premiumtv.co.uk/streaming/watch/RacingUKFlashV...

Still no update on the entries yet on the bha site

Eight entries, race re-opened, according to Sandown twitter.

Cheers Fangsy

Racing Post twitter stating that Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Ar Mad and Sire De Grugy among the 8 entries. Didn't state the other 4 though.

I'm going on Saturday so wanted to have a couple going for me antepost at the moment I've done SDG 14/1 each way and Gods Own 20/1 each way I'm itching to back douvan at 5/1 I know Rich Ricci said he was unlikely but the ground may be on the quick side for un de sceaux and surely willie will run one of them in what looks a good opportunity for some decent prize money!
As for the rest of the field would be surprised if sir Valentino is good enough, top gamble surely needs some rain, I respect ar mad but I'm sure he will come on for the run having been out of action a while, josses hill will like the ground but I'm sure I read was being aimed at the Peterborough, SDG was excellent last time out but would appreciate a bit of rain as well so that leaves me with one of willies or gods own who is race fit and likes decent ground the 20/1 is gone now but still think 10/1 3 places isn't the worst bet!!!

Good luck all

The ground is good to soft at present with no rain forecast between now and then.

Un De Sceaux defo gonna be non runner with good ground forecast. Sire De Grugy might find it too quick too. Gods Own backed e/w with the 3places. Douvan will probably end up running now. Ar Mad loves those fences but after Vaniteaux and Bristol De Mai not boosting the form he looks too short.

5/1 surely gonna be smashed on Douvan shortly. Paddy just cut there to 4/1

Un De Sceaux (UDS) does like it soft and with no rain forecast Paddy has pushed UDS out to 5/2 from 2/1, and clipped Douvan to 3/1 from 5/1.

Just to point out Ar Mad and God's Own both also entered in Peterborough on Sunday.

Yup and Ar Mad will run there if Douvan lines up. Moore said keeping options open until he sees entries. Gods Own might actually stick to Tingle if Ar Mad & UDS non runners. Top Gamble probably non runner given going too.

I'd agree cv - not had a bet but for both races as a spectacle I kinda hope it'll work out like that - God's Own is entitled to have a crack at Douvan on decent ground and it would open up new horizons for Ar Mad if he is impressive in the Peterborough.

Dunno what's up with Special Tiara. Presumably something wrong after the Shloer?

I had forgotten how slow it is to get these entries up????

looks like douvan going to run

The books have been very generous with the Douvan prices, I suspect they know something I don't

I had £300 @7/2 this morning guessing uds wouldn't run ground too fast . so heres hoping usualy do me dough antepost so got everything crossed for nxt hour or so

The betting market for this race last night was very fishy with only money for Douvan yet one entity was still offering 5.1 right down to 4 for several £100s; Douvan is 4/7 now with the main bookies but will it definitely run? If so, will Douvan take in another 2m race in Ireland over the x'mas period and not turn up for the King George?

Ar Mad 157
Douvan 169
God's Own 165
Sire De Grugy 166
Sir Valentino 151
The Game Changer 151
Un De Scaeux 169
Vibrato Valtat 157

Hope they run Ar Mad, obviously been some rumours about Douvan judging the ante-post market.

Great race should they all stand their ground.

This is a statement made by the representative of the Boy***sport about the money for Douvan.

Rep: "Douvan was 7/2 at half-ten. That quickly became 3/1, then 2/1 into 11/8, shortened further into 10/11 and now 4/7. All the people we respect are on. It happened quickly and it was the right faces who wanted to back him. They got on decent sums of cash without the figures being earth-shattering."

Really? People we respect; right faces; decent sums of cash. Is he being truthful or on a PR spiel? 

From experienced, bet would be sent to trader and a a fraction of bet accepted eg Cue Card at 2/1 for KG; with Douvan at 7/2, absolutely no chance especially 'right faces' wanting to bet unless of course they are cronies and/or industry parasites.

Rather happy the punt paid off so far. I've hedged my stake as you can't trust Mullins. Can't wait for race now as I'm headed to Sandown

PR bullshIt of the highest order from ****. Max people got on at 7/2 was 50 euro. They cut the b0llox out of the price then 'really quickly' because they are spineless bean counters. Not bookmakers at all.

B0ylesports

Think my max bet allowed with them was £1.36 back in the day

Boyles sent me an email (long while back) advising me they would no longer accept my bets on Horse Racing and Greyhounds.  However, I was still free to bet on other sports and enjoy their online Casino. Jokers.

Anyway got a few quid on Douvan, but bailed out as who knows what Mullins will do. No lose gamble for me on this one, but will kick myself for bailing if as I expect Douvan hacks up.

Market on the Mullins duo has flip-flopped again.

A serious look into the betting pattern of Mullins fancied runners for the big races is long overdue eg Faugheen / Annie Power in the 2016 Champion Hurdle and now Douvan and Un De Sceaux (UDS) in this race, to name two; Douvan is on the drift with UDS back in favour again.

Vautour ..... Ryanair   if he aint in the Gold Cup he wont be going to Cheltenham..............

Impossible123, Willie Mullins is entitled to run either Douvan, UDS, both or none in the Tingle Creek as he sees fit. He is perfectly entitled to leave his decision as late as possible. If you, me or anybody else wants to have an antepost bet on the race it is our own decision. Nobody is forcing you to have a bet and don't expect anyone to hold your hand and give you a cuddle if you do your dough.

firstimevisor,
I agree entirely, and I also fully understand the risks associated with Antepost betting. However, if the privileged few who are associated with the stable in one way or another, are in the know ie the respected or right faces, can manipulate the betting market to their own advantage and gain each and every time with impunity then the BHA must instigate an investigation - that is part of the BHA's remit.

I'm only asking for a level playing field; how often have we seen the betting vibes here have been proven correct sopt-on. I sincerely hope Douvan runs as it would the 1st time he has taken on seasoned chasers the likes of SDR, Gods Own and Sir Valentino and give the bookies a bashing despite I'm on at 5 but offloaded most.

geoff m,
Indeed, the Vautour / Ryanair saga; the Faugheen / Annie Power Champion Hurdle stitched-up; Yorkhill / Bellshill Neptune / Supreme swap, etc.

There are just so many contradictions there I don't know where to begin. You complain that you don't have a level playing field in the antepost market(do you think big brother type cameras should by placed in trainer's yards?).
The right faces connected to the yard are getting on and gaining with impunity each and every time,are these the same right faces who backed Douvan into 4-7 who can now be backed at 2-1?
The BHA must instigate an investigation cos its part of their remit- what rubbish - trainers are entitled to make multiple entries and run or not run wherever they want. The rules of racing do not change just because bookies open ante post markets on certain races. The BHA's remit does not include dictating to trainers where, or which horses,run in high profile races.
And if you had a problem with Annie Power switching from the Mares to the Champion hurdle or with Yorkhill switching from the Supreme to the Neptune then you must have a lot of problems.

Completely chaotic market this morning.  I guess we'll find out after 10 what is happening, but there seems to be an awful lot of ill-informed money flying around.

Agreed Fangsy. It suggests that nobody really knows, because a concrete decision still hasnt been made.

Im on UDS and have got everything crossed. I don't think the ground is a huge concern. Its not going to be quick. Clearly he would prefer it softer, but if he runs and Douvan doesnt, I think he will win in spite of it.

douvan non/runner.
un de sceaux with ruby riding runs.

Result.

Good news CCM: UDS, SDG, Ar Mad, God's and Sir V declared.

Think God's Own is the main danger. He will love the ground

Time to lay off some of your big-price backs CCM - it's a trappy little contest.

Willie Mullins is well within his rights the way he withholds information but good luck to Gary Moore anyway.

Do you think the books would have ever gone 5/1 if they were not sure?

Gods own was a big price also? 16-20/1 when will he be rerouted?

Not laying off yet Fangsy... i fancy UDS pretty strongly and can see him being nearer Even money at the off.

The right faces have become the wrong faces imo.

I don't know if Willie said either horse would def run or not. And without informed info everybody would just be guessing. Seems to me like a few people were trying to second guess Mullins and got it wrong.

Spot on Blackrock. All Willie has done is kept his options open, and he had every right to do so.

They meant to say that the right faces were laying the 5 4 3 2

There has been manipulation of the market aided and abetted by the industry PR people and known and respected faces, and that is the truth. I challenge anyone getting sums of cash on backing only one of the two fancies from the same stable - you will be knocked back ie bet send to trader with no reason given.

The thing is this has been happening regularly and consistently especially from the Mullins stable, and the parasites must be stopped. I sincerely hope the enquiry instigated by the BHA into this eg Faugheen/Annie Power in the Champion Hurdle 2015 puts an end to this unsavoury saga for good.

Bookies proclaiming from the roof tops that the right faces are on simply serves as a tactic to get perhaps the more naïve among the punting ranks to part with their money.

Nobody interested in backing @ initial offer of 5s but plenty no doubt did there dough naievely when the supposed gamble started to mount
Bookmaker PR bollax @ its finest in hoodwinking the unsuspecting

There is nothing to investigate. Mullins, as he always does, said he would wait until the last minute to make a decision on his two entries. Of course those really close to him might have known UDS was always going to be the chosen one and taken advantage but that is how it should be for owners / stable staff etc.

Some punters just seem desperate to gain an edge, or enjoy willy waving about how 'shrewd' they are, by backing a horse antepost at a price that will be shorter on that day - but then they squeal when they back a non runner.

If this had happened in any other event/sport the betting market would have been suspended straight away eg Sports Personality of the Year, and many others.

If what had happened?

As you yourself have said nobody can get any proper money on with the bookies - even a £20 bet at 7/2 would be knocked back so other than the usual bookies PR bullshit and over dramatic reporting by the Racing Post there is nothing to worry about.

It is not just what has happened over the Tingle Creek that could upset some ante post punters, it is the systematic misinformation. I very rarely bet ante post and never on Mullins or A. O'Brien horses. I might lay them if the price is low enough though.

sageform,
Indeed, constant systematic misinformation.

Why did Mullins not say Douvan had been entered for this race but her preference would be a race in Ireland rather than we'd leave Douvan in until declaration? Why say something that can be construed both ways which could attract market manipulation by some privileged individuals?

Now compare that with what Mrs Haggas said about Rivet after Rivet had just won the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster? Mrs Haggas: "Rivet did not enjoy Newmarket much (Dewhurst). It will be up to William and the owners, we could avoid Newmarket and look at France or Ireland."

So, anyone interested in backing Rivet for the English Guineas would know there is a risk Rivet might not turn up.

Mullins told the Irish Times: "Hopefully he (Douvan) will be able to run soon.

"He is entered for both the Tingle Creek and the Hilly Way (Cork, December 11).

"Un De Sceaux is also in at Sandown so we'll see how things work out this week, but I would imagine Douvan would run in one of the two.

"The other route to go would be the John Durkan (at Punchestown on Sunday week) but we have Djakadam for that.

"If they had different owners they might take each other on.

"But for now at least I think Douvan will stay at two miles."

Impossible. You're not making any sense. This is what MUllins said. If you could point out whats incorrect, or misleading, I'd be grateful. You've been sucked in by the Bookies PR. Thats nothing to do with Willie Mullins.

Anyone who jumped on the Douvan bandwagon when price was shortening, deserve their fate.

Nice slight of hand by the firms.

CCM

I do not listen to TV pundits or industry PR people - I go on horses forms, betting pattern and vibes; I do antepost to extract value whenever possible knowing the risks associated.

Btw I struck a UDS bet at 3/1 early last week. However, I had been forced to trade because of the market manipulation by unscrupulous individuals close to the stable (it seems to only affect the Mullins' stable) aided and abetted by some bookies, but Mullins is not doing anything positive to negate it; he must know who the people responsible (cannot be joe public) as if so, not a penny will be accommodated by bookies.

I hope the BHA will ask the bookies involved for identities of these respected and known faces.

Spot on CCM.

WPM said on Monday that a final decision would not be made on running plans until declaration time and no other statement was made thereafter.
So the entries were made Tuesday morning, declarations were made this morning meaning a 48 hour window for an antepost market for anybody who wished to try and make a quick buck by second guessing the market. Any of us betting this way should be aware of the risks/rewards of betting all in, run or not.

Impossible123 starts off on this thread 27/11 15.59 by saying Douvan unlikely runner but UDS probable.
On 28/11 on another thread he says " I have never back(sic) his(WPM) horses antepost as it is a sure-fire loser".
This thread again 30/11 17.23 " I'm on (Douvan) at 5 but offloaded most"

Now he's screaming for the BHA to start an investigation into the antepost betting patterns of WPM horses!

firstimevisor
You really don't get it, do you?

Two essential ingredients for any of my bets eg (1) it must run (2) to show a profit; if either has been compromised prior I'd take actions appropriately to redress the situation. Now, every runner is a winner for me, some more than others. However, I'd rather just have a selection and not the shenanigans relating to Douvan over the last two days; Douvan at 5/1 was forced upon and strategic.

But this market manipulation is bad for antepost and Horse Racing and needs to be stamped upon. I believe the stable knows the culprit/s as it seems to mainly affect Mullins'. I hope the BHA's enquiry into the Faugheen/Annie Power Champion Hurdle affair will bring the offender/s (with the help of some bookies affected) to task and punishment applied appropriately and justly.

How did you cope with the Vibrato Valtat scenario this morning imp?

He was out when the decs were first released and then back in about 20 minutes later after the race was reoffered. That must have completely done your head in.

ReaseHeath
Tbh VV did not come into the equation at all; VV could be backed at 170/1 here prior to new market. He could turn out to be my nemesis here just like Found in the Arc.

On a serious note , I think Un De Sceau can get turned over. Sire De Grugy and Gods Own are both race fit and can make the favourite work for the prize.

Impossible,were all those Arc runners winners for you?
Not really interested in your betting strategy but if you backed Douvan at 5s and offloaded at lower then are you not manipulating the market in your own way.

What I really want to know is what exactly you believe WPM did wrong here.He entered 2 horses for a race and said a final decision wouldn't be made until declaration time. Nothing unusual there.
When the money came for Douvan you whinged that the right faces all knew the score and had an unfair advantage. If Douvan had been declared for the Tingle Creek you would have claimed it was a stitch up by WPM and a gamble was landed if he won.The BHA should investigate.

But the right faces got it wrong. Douvan wasn't declared. The gamble went south.But Impossible says its still a stitch up and WPM is still to blame because maybe it was the same right faces who laid him. The BHA should investigate.

I think Ar Mad will win. Form has worked out well - I thought he was very impressive last year. Moore said he has 2 better than SDG in his yard and Ar Mad has to be one of them. First run and back from injury is the concern but then I was convinced had he made Cheltenham he would have served it up to Douvan so happy with 5/1.

Not being funny like but out of the dozens and dozens of threads Imp has started I don't recall a single winner. Lots of talk for someone who is so often wrong.


The only issue with the Douvan Tingle market was Ruby Walsh and his PP column. WPM has done anything no other trainer would do with two top class horses.

*done nothing

Without being funny I do not see the need to post/announce each time I've backed a winner eg Who Dares Wins, Native River and Gibralfaro (2nd) for a win double and treble.

All I123 does is back the very obvious favourite (mainly antepost) in the hope that it runs and goes off much shorter - then he can crow about how clever he is.

He gets it right sometimes (Minding in the Nassau, Idaho in the Voltigeur for example) but there is never anything insightful or original about his selections, and his disregard for anything he hasn't backed (Found in the Arc being an obvious example) is quite absurd.

unclepuncle

I was on UDS at 3/1 because I saw value as Douvan, to me, was probably an unlikely runner given another suitable race in Ireland and Mullins' lack of propensity to run his best horses in England this time of the year.

For your info, Idaho was not the 'fav' for the St Leger when he was priced up at 10/1 similarly with Seventh Heaven (9/1) in the Yorkshire Oaks; Lucida (12/1) in the 2015 1000G; The Last Samuri 25/1 (National); Churchill (12/1) 2000G; Altior (5/1) Arkle; Don Cossack (8/1) Gold Cup, and many others. I only go on 'value' given depth of race eg probable opposition/runners.

If Found had not been retired I'd not back her next season either no matter what because her win/run ratio is extremely poor, and on several occasions was beaten at odds-on; she lost in the Champion Stakes and the Breeders Cup - I hope you were not on her for these two races.

Funny market. Everything seems weak.

Backed Un de Sceaux win and Ar Mad each way.

An exciting race for sure but they finished in a heap and if Douvan is half the horse he looks he will hose up in the CC.
If I were Altior's owner I'd be giving him an entry as well.

if the right faces did back it - then ,no one did anything wrong.

mullins can do what he wants as long as he dosent lie on purpose.
bookies can price up any horse - the 5/1 showed you they didnt believe it would run.

so then its the price shrinking that is or isnt an issue.

if you believe bookies can do whatever they want to trick punters into parting with their money,then its fine.

if you believe the bookies need to not trick punters falsely out of a sportsman duty of fair play ,then the price collapse is wrong.

if the faces backed it - then can boilsports ask these people if they re happy to go public and let the public know that they did rush in like fools - even though boilsports fear them.

do the bookies really need to sink to this level.

if it was the faces - they were lucky to get 5 s cos they normally go 2/1 with a run.another anomally.

UDS is still only 8 and has won 16 races.........

A wonderful race to watch after all the unsavoury shenanigans prior. I think the jockey made the difference, but form wise not totally taken in but a very exciting race with some spectacular jumps from Ar Mad.

Douvan will be very hard to beat in the CC, hopefully in 2018 Altior could give him a race if the CC is still Douvan's target but I'd believe not - he could be Gold Cup bound. There is no chance of Altior taking on Douvan in the CC this season the former being a novice; any change in running plan for Altior would more likely be the Champion Hurdle especially if Faugheen and Annie Power are absent. And he would win, I believe.

If anything untoward happened to Douvan I'd actually say the CC is more winnable than the Arkle the way it's looking.

backed the winner online with a bookie 11/2 in the week. tried to withdraw and says winnings under review

anyone else had this ?

You must be one of 'the right faces'.

Ar mad would beat(*reverse)with  that bunch at Cheltenham on soft ground?, a decent run after injury,and not given an hard race, that final kick was not asked for!

Fashion Fever
To be "gifted" a price of 5/1 thro' no fault of one on a winning selection when the antepost was 2/1 and then to be told post race winning is under review is wholly out of order and unacceptable. I think this bookie is saying...we do not appreciate and/or want your custom; small and regular punters just cannot win, regardless.

I experienced that with Limato (8/1 Champion Sprint) despite his not running yet I was hit with a "no price boost, free bets, concession, etc" in the future for being nifty. With hindsight it could be prudent not to obtain the best price.

Intriguing race......plenty of positives for all concerned.

Time suggests a good gallop,nobody foot perfect,and race fitness anyones guess.

Ar Mad looked the eyecatcher,made up plenty ground, after being given easy time half way down the back.Trainer

speaks very highly of the horse,was it his stamina kicking in up the straight,no surprise were he stepped up

shortly,in decent company.

If he does have another,Traffic Fluide got to be the one,another 6 yr old,on the easy list at present,plenty

potential at this stage,nice problem to have if Moore can keep them healthy.

Add in Altior,classy display on the same card,exciting times ahead in the 2m division,we hope.