Welsh National 27/12/16

I agree Racing Pulse is well handicapped and I've backed him on his last two starts. He'll get me a win but hopefully he'll go for an easier assignment than the Welsh National first. Hopefully thats the Troytown as I've backed him at avg 66.0 on here for it.

The 4 I've backed are as follows

Upswing 25/1
Emperors Choice 25/1
Waldorf Salad 40/1
Unioniste 25/1

Cogry has fallen 4 times over fences and once over hurdles so he's clearly not a great jumper. However he was going really well last time out before being taken out by a loose horse at the 12th. He is 2lb lower than when 3rd in the Midlands National last season and 5lb lower than when finishing 3rd to Taquin Du Seuil the time before that, over an inadequate 20f. He's won on Heavy at Chepstow too. He was PU in the Welsh National last season but he was just a 6yo then and carried 3lb more. At 20/1 he'll do for me.

Shotgun Paddy is 6lb lower than placing last year too and has several pieces of form where he'd be nicely handicapped of 139. But he apparently burst blood vessels last time out so it remains to be seen where he runs next..

i thought i had a dark one with racing pulse...perhaps not

Ha, no sooner have I bet on Emperors Choice & Waldorf Salad and the 25s and 40s are now gone.

Racing Pulse is on my radar too - have backed him in two of the P0PUB races, in the back of my mind would like to see him complete before getting involved again (I appreciate the last time was purely bad luck).

His win on heavy at Chepstow on the Welsh National card at the start of this year was achieved at a time when most of the stable's runners were performing badly.

apologies, GI MAC, I've basically repeated what you wrote, should have read it properly first...

no worries, always good to see others with similar thoughts.

Moving markets CV, but I would imagine it only took a tenner for stanley j to drop their price.

Evening GI......you appear to have too much time on your hands

Just the 102 entries.....roughly 15 a week to sieve through,finnish on xmas eve,only to find you have wrapped 96 yr old aunt Agnes G String in numbers 16-30

Or.....take a guess early doors.

FWIW.....just the one at first glance,hoping he would get an entry,and the trainer agrees.

Onenightinvienna.......currently off 146,at first glance he seems high enough in the weights.

Dig a little deeper,and his exeter/chelt runs from last year suggest otherwise.

Looks a big old fashioned chaser,given plenty of time,goes on soft ground and when asked,keeps trying his best.

Current entries,159 is the highest I can find.

Interestingly,hobbs also has a 157 rated entry,the rascal has already hatched the plan,Vienna would sneak in with around  11-0 st come what may.

Now the big negative......this is a very strong race re stats and carrying weight.

In the last 17 runnings,only 2 horses have carried more than 10-09 st to victory,HG 11-03,NP 11-0,although some of those higher up have gone close.

All in all,should be 25 s the field at this stage,powder kept firmly dry.

Aye, plenty of time today anyways noc. I love this time of the year, big race entries coming out all the time in the lead up to Xmas period. Plenty to get stuck into.

Onenightinvienna is interesting, trainer mentioned the Welsh National as being right up his street in his stable tour, so it looks like he will be going. The weight he carries will be important, like you say early days, I've not struck a bet myself yet, waiting to see what unfolds.

Synchronised won carrying 11-6 noc

Correct CVB....2O10 missing from sporting life history,like last years ran in january,lazy from me.

The three in behind carried no more than 10-4 lb,now you got me thinking,ultravox booming over the prestbury

tannoy one friday in march?

Back to reality,tipping it down south coast,sheds developed a leak,and my trusty heavy duty tarpaulin is covering my sons recently aquired 535 cc cruiser motorbike,he moved out 6 months ago!

Those 102 will have to wait

MILANSBAR looks tailor made for this, 33/1

Arpege D'alene would interest me but only if Bowen rides him, the horse just seems to run well for him. He must stay with that pedigree.

Im pretty sure that Minella Rocco is a Gold Cup horse (that's not the same as a Gold Cup winner!). He is a massive horse with a massive engine. I think he is a worthy favourite for this.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the NH Chase could produce the winner of all four major Nationals, with one in the bag already (VICENTE) plus a Hennessy too. So Waldorf Salad may be a good shout together with Warrantor, Rocco, Vicente and the unlikely runner Native River.

racing pulse and upswing get tipped in a/post column in this weeks rfo if that's any help to anyone

Not a cat in hells chance Minella Rocco wins this off 159. Synchronised managed it off 150 but he actually was a Gold Cup horse.

Not sure it was the best idea of NTD's to run a horse who has fallen FOUR times over the national fences tbh.

Wicketd has already stuck up Milansbar

If there was one to take out of the trial yesterday,he was the one for me.

First time up lumping 11-12,jumped superbly,normally goes from the front,jockey did his best to keep him away from the lead.

Proven on deep ground,should we get that later in the month,he must be a player.

Certainly one to bear in mind off his current mark......good call.

Firebird Flyer looks a pretty solid e/w bet to me @ 16/1

Minella Rocco taken out.

How long does this market have to stay suspended for?

looking like native river may try and carry the weight, certainly looks possible and he will become a big punt here if running...

Weather forecast looks very promising (will still be soft but not the usual mudbath) and it makes sense to run him there for decent money as there isn't much else for him until the Pillar or Denman chases.

I have taken some of the 8/1.

Now looks like there will be plenty of the wet stuff in the next week or two in the west so I expect they will swerve it with Native River. I will have to rely on Firebird Flyer.

my 3 for this race are:

Milansbar  33/1
Shotgun Paddy   25/1
One for Arthur   40/1

Firebird Flyer is a useful yardstick for this race, and I think both Milansbar and Shotgun Paddy are better off at the weights and significantly bigger prices. I think that is where the value lies

Emperor's  Choice  @20/1  initial bet.

Studied long and hard today. Three against the field are

CAROLES DESTRIER
VYTA DU ROC
ONE FOR ARTHUR

The three I backed are

MOUNTANEOUS 25/1 - cant believe he is that price
NATIVE RIVER
FIREBIRD FLYER

Good Luck

Have managed to lay off all my Native River bet at under 8/1 - can't believe they will run him given the weather forecast.
Of course the meeting might yet be abandoned.

Uncle, I can't see any bad weather forecasts, you never know, though.

What forecast you seen punkle

This BBC weather for the week ahead one:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38358035

Torrential rain Thursday morning (1m48s)and then showery rain Sat/Sun and by the looks of it another heavy band coming in on Monday.

Though if you type Chepstow into the search box and look at the next 5-10 days it looks alright and the latest UK video forecast they have just uploaded doesn't show too much.

Ye I went on beeb website didn't look to bad. I have to say punkle I think they'll run it anyway as long as it isn't bottomless, the prize money is to good and isn't to be sniffed at

4lb worse off with Caroles Destrier for a fairly narrow beating, I think the value lies elsewhere

I have a question regarding Native River, with the 4lb penalty that puts him on 11st 12lb, will they amend that to 11st 10lb as that is the usual top weight? and reduce all other runners by 2lb to compensate?

11st 12lbs is the normal top weight bloob so the weights are now are fixed... as long as he is a runner he will carry 11st 12lbs

if he doesn't run the weights will rise and saulsalito will move up 2lbs and carry 11st 12lbs and so on

i'm a tad confused the racing post has native river off of 155 here, however i thought he had to carry a 4lb penalty...am i going mad, can somebody put me straight??

reading colin tizzard in rfo and looking at forecast be astonished if runs, flippers required methinks.

Has anyone heard anything about the wellbeing of Harry Topper. Is he fit to run his race. Absolutely thrown in if he is but its a massive if.

more likely the Rowland Meyrick for him

Very disappointed native river escapes a penalty. Surely they will run him now but from a handicapping perspective am annoyed I didn't spot the horse would get away without being penalised

Thanks for that update GI.

I have done four against the field in the last week or two

CAROLES DESTRIER @ 14/1
VYTA DU ROC @ 25/1
SHOTGUN PADDY @ 25/1
MILANSBAR @ 33/1

The two I am most worried about that I will not be on are Arpege Dalene and Viconte Du Noyer.

Dec 21, 2016 -- 4:22PM, Roselier wrote:

Has anyone heard anything about the wellbeing of Harry Topper. Is he fit to run his race. Absolutely thrown in if he is but its a massive if.

According to Kim Bailey's website he's had a racecourse gallop (or two) and will go wherever the ground is the worst over Christmas.

the RP website showed Native River on 11st 12lb the other day, does he seriously get to run without a penalty? it seems strange that they should get it wrong

or do they only adjust for penalties when the final decs are made?

its a sick joke the bloob imo this is what was said...i still can't get my head round why the weights aren't adjusted


Tizzard's Hennessy Gold Cup hero Native River topped the weights among the acceptors at the six-day stage on Wednesday and, because no penalty can increase a horse's weight to above 11st 12lb in this race, he is able to race off the same mark as at Newbury, meaning he is effectively 8lb well in compared to his current handicap rating of 163. Had he not topped the weights he would have carried a penalty for his Hennessy win. Stablemates Viconte Du Noyer and Theatre Guide also stood their ground.

so what they are saying is if a trainer had declared a horse who was 160 rated and on 11st 12lbs he would of had to of carried 11st 11lbs and raced off of 159, this is nonsense just make him run off of 159 and adjust the weights so the others carry less...this has really annoyed me

Any rain?

Yeah it's been wet and should be more on the way. 

Fwiw Firebird Flyer ew for me. Nice return last time, winner franked the form, runs the course well and on an ok mark compared to its Uttoxeter win, where he admittedly got lucky.

Native River is well in and progressive but near enough 12 stone over 3.5 miles in the Chepstow mud? Could easily win but it won't win carrying the additional penalty of my money

I like the look of Goodtoknow if it gets in at 33/1, have also backed Milansbar 33/1, Firebird Flyer 16/1 and a little on Beg to Differ 40/1.  Good luck all

Much rain lads? Any ground update?

Anyone have list of those balloted out for this race pls ?

those praying for rain didn't get it... i can see native river going off 11/4 or shorter for this and if in the same form as the hennessy he will take a world of beating...i like onenightinvienna but didn't want native river getting away without a penalty so am just hopeful now, although vienna does get ground i think he will like but not sure he can put it up to native river off these weights

Bang on with the price harry. Biggest 3/1 Smallest 5/2  I also like Vienna but a tad concerned about trainer form. Backing Katkeau win and place. Ground will be perfect has course experience and fancy this to run a decent race

Not concerned about poor historic performance of horses carrying a weight in this race ( and the apalling record of coming from Newbury / Hennessey ? I would be wanting 8/1 Native River personally, 11/4 ludicrous dont you think ?

there is a strong trend for horses carrying 10st 9lb in this race, not much use that bottom weight tomorrow is 10st 10lb!

Not quite, winners carrying 11-6 11-3 11-0 10-13 but 11-7 and higher......36 tried and all lost with a paltry 7 placing....considering the odds were such as 5/2, 3/1, 9/2, 9/2, 9/2, 6/1, 15/2, 8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 17/2, and 6 at 10/1 its not like they were unfancied
Couple that with horses coming from the Hennessy and they are 1 winner from 51 (the winner ran over hurdles at Newbury rather than a tough race like the Hennessy)  and surely you have to douby Native River at these odds ?

Have added Houblon Des Obeux @ 33/1

i see your concerns in regards native river and newbury kipper... i think you may have had few to many to think he is an 8/1 shot though... i've got him nearer to 7/4 on my tissue if he repeats his last run and i'd be more concerned him backing that run up if the hennessy was run on soft ground but it wasn't a gruelling affair on such soft ground as can be the case and this race isn't being run on bottomless ground like most years... so disagree with your theory in this particular year which just shows how following trends can be very misleading and especially against these slow horses on this ground...of course i doubt you would be a layer at 8/1

if you are betting purely on him running badly then obviously he is an 8/1 shot but he could be any price then so i'd say he is likely to win and probably win well, of course i'd love him to run badly as my chances of winning increase

anyway i do like to ask people so i will ask you kipper... if he is an 8/1 chance who have you got at favorite, personally i think a lot of the potential horses missed out and a lot of dead wood got in

i like milansbar but this ground may do for him like many others

i will ask the trends followers one more thing because they will know... how many hennessy runners ran on good/soft ground in the hennessy also managed to get the same ground at chepstow??? and also how many welsh nationals have ever been run on good/soft ground so we can maybe find the right type we are looking for

Backed Native River win and Caroles Destrier and Houblon Des Obeaux both each way.

Just noticed Native River is a winner without a penalty. As pointed out earlier, it's a joke. If they don't want a horse to carry more than 11 stone 12lb, just deduct the penalty weight, in this case 4lb, from remaining unpenalised horses. That would be the obvious and fair thing to do though it would never occur to the dimwits running the BHA. All the same I think Carole's Destrier can overturn the Hennessy form with the extra distance despite being 4lb worse off than he should be.

Ended up backing Beg To Differ; progressive novice chaser last year, and early season stabe tour mentioned this as a target. No surprise to see a drastic change of form from this JJ runner, worth a punt at 40's anyways.

Good luck all..

Native River and Beg To Differ are well treated.

I've backed Beg To Differ and Harry Topper each way.

I respect Kipper's observations about the trends but also see harry c's points about reasons why the trends might not be upheld this year - Theatre Guide (not without a chance here) came out and won within two weeks of completing in the Hennessy and Regal Encore has also won since running in this year's Hennessy renewal.

The handicap is relatively compressed and most of those near the foot of it either don't look particularly well handicapped or would prefer softer ground or, in most cases, both.

Agree with GI MAC and dunlaying about Beg To Differ who looks the only potentially progressive one towards the bottom (leap of faith required but you get the price in return) and Harry Topper has been back in training a good while with this as his target plus his form does n't suggest he needs the ground as soft as commonly perceived - recall he likes to belt a fence or two though so that would be a concern.

Good luck, all.

looking quite tiring ground so am happy to play a bit on milansbar at the price...not sure where this leaves native river and he has looked much better on a better surface, one thing it certainly does is leave him more vulnerable to the slow horses so i wouldn't be so confident about his price...i see there is good money for caroles destrier and will be interesting to see him back up his run in the hennessy he has been the one horse in the race i've wanted to get...so much dead wood has made this race very difficult to be very confident

Hello Harry, I like trends as angles and they have done me really well in the past, but yes sometimes I come a cropper as they are just pointers to suggest the right profile for a horse.  When stating 8/1, Im obvioulsy playing devils advocate to a certain extent but do think that the race ought to be more open as alot of good horses have come from Newbury and faltered here (most pull up) but I agree this year on ground and class of horse attracted could be a trend buster. To be honest I backed Caroles Destrier last time and had the view that Native River was the wrong price and came a cropper.  Im hopeful that lightning doesnt strike twice here but yes on form he looks favourite, I just think top weight, won a trial race for this with an apalling record and running over dead ground over this trip and just think the odds are way too short.

In the last 19 years (as far as I can go back) no horse ran at Newbury on gd to soft and then Chepstow on gd to soft

In 2005 the Welsh National was gd to soft and the Hennessy was gd ground, 2 tried and they were 3rd and PU - Cornish Rebel 3rd 9/2 f carried 11-12 and Comply or Die PU 12/1 carried 11-7. Nicholls had the 1-2-3 but the winner was a distance clear Laventure 14/1 off 10-4
Unioniste / Vicente forecast ?!

Ground at Chepstow changed to Soft (Good to Soft in places after race 2.

that's fair enough kipper i'm back tracking a tad as it seems the frost has got in but stand by had it been proper good/soft he would of taken a world of beating, as there really are some poor horses running here imo and the bottom weight is 10st 10lbs...the 4lb penalty has really annoyed me (should be 8lbs) as i've mentioned before, as i think that would of been a nail in his coffin but now he is very well in against really slow horses...anyway we will see but trying to find bets are thin on the ground...raz de maree may just sneak into the places

thx for answering the question and as much as i'm not a trends user i do browse - they are a useful tool, like french breds can't win a national

do you think caroles will back up his last run then kipper?

No, Ive opposed the Hennessy runners, put my shortlist up above a few days ago

"I like the look of Goodtoknow if it gets in at 33/1, have also backed Milansbar 33/1, Firebird Flyer 16/1 and a little on Beg to Differ 40/1.  Good luck all "

Replaced Goodtoknow with Onenightinvienna but the Nicholls pair tempted me but settled on the Hobbs horse

Added Royale Knight place only six places.

Well done those that believed, great performance

Well done backers of Native River.
I convinced myself that he wasn't going to run, so didn't take the 6/1.
Then the 3/1 was too short for me in this type of race. !!

Desperate for vienna backers,looked to take a false step,eased off quickly,hope the horse can come back.

Some performance from the winner,well done to followers,what rating will he get for that?

Desperate for vienna backers,looked to take a false step,eased off quickly,hope the horse can come back.

Some performance from the winner,well done to followers,what rating will he get for that?

Onenightinvienna was put to sleep unfortunately

Many thanks Steamship

Watched every run of his over a number of weeks,always gave his best.

Shamefully even cursed when the poor fella was eased off.

Devastating for connections.

Thats me for a bit.

Rest In Peace.