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I am not sure how Native River can win when he is all out to go the gallop in staying handicaps.
I doesn't add it up to me. Thistlecrack has struggled to come off the bridle but all of sudden Native River is touted as the next horse to do it. As much as i admire Native River for being a brilliant nNational type, he was all out to beat Carole's Destrier. The gap in class is enormous. Native river's mark of 168 is for the National scene, he may run on into a place like a Hedgehunter. |
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The only doubt about Thistlecrack is the extra distance and nothing in his record casts doubt on his ability to get 3 miles 3 furlongs. Staying 3 miles over hurdles at the World Hurdle level is the stiffest test of stamina outside of extreme races like the Aintree and Scottish National.
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Another potential candidate falls by the wayside, with The Don being retired.
The Gold Cup is such an attritional race, hence why multiple winners are so rare and horses having their first run it boasting a terrific record. Winning it seems to diminish all but the rarest of beasts. If Thistlecrack lines up and is odds on on the day, I'll have to lay, simply on principal. But not to huge stakes, he's the likeliest winner on what I've seen so far. I'm getting a few rags in my book each way at decent odds, in the hope that one or more could fill the frame - or, in the event of a mishap with the favourite, give us a shock winner. |
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I think Native River would be a very unlikely winner: he'd need to finish infront of Thistlecrack (very, very unlikely), Cue Card and Djakadam (again doubly unlikely).
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Assuming they all turn up and complete.
His rating of 168 puts him bang there in a Gold Cup in which a relatively mediocre performance could easily be good enough, given the thinning of the field we've already seen - you've put up a novice, an 11yo and a horse beaten in the race twice before as being the principal protagonists. His profile is much more attractive than any of those, from a stats pov. Lord Windermere's winning performance was a 163 and that race had horses of the calibre of Bobsworth and Silvi Conte lining up, it could be that NR merely has to run to his current mark. He cannot be dismissed. |
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I find the Don Cossack story somewhat disturbing. Normally trainers would give a horse a year off following a tendon injury. This news about heat in its leg again smacks of the horse having been rushed back for the Gold Cup. It's a numbers game for Gigginstown and Elliot and one gets the impression the Don is a victim of their championship battle with Mullins.
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To be fair Gigginstown had always said the welfare of Don Cossack was paramount post the injury and if connections could not get him back for this season he'd be retired; recently the vibes and soundings from connections were positive however, once up-in-tempo with his work that proved not so thus today's news.
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Ricci on Djakadam when interviewed by the RP: "Djakadam would be entered in the Ryanair and that option would be considered if it was quicker ground but he would be heading to the Gold Cup if it was soft."
Vautour all over again (?)....with an early warning as courtesy perhaps. But was it with the blessing of Mullins? |
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Surely it should be the other way around? Ryanair if soft?
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Last man standing to win the Gold Cup at this rate.
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Djakadam needs soft ground to be at his most effective, and he stays the GC distance well; the Ryanair is a bit short however, he could run others ragged from the front right to the line, if necessary. On the other hand quick ground in the GC does not favour him but many of the others who stay the distance just as well.
I think, post the Lexus and emergence of Thistlecrack, connections have come to accept that it would be a much taller order to win it, and the Ryanair gives them the best chance of a win even with Cue Card in it. Ironically, Cue Card is in demand here. |
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Djakadam won the Thystes by running the field into the ground from the front , about time they tried this in the Gold Cup , as he doesn't pick up quite as well as he appears to be travelling when waited with.
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History is littered with Cheltenham Gold Cup and CH winners that don't come back to defend their crowns. It is a very hard school. Apart from Kauto and Denman, very few recent GC winners have reproduced the run Long Run and Bobsworth both looked good enough to come back and win again as did Coneygree and Don Cossack but their subsequent efforts are more typical than Kauto or Best Mate.
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Not sure Denman ever reproduced that run Sage, admirable though his later career was. I've had 30 years watching Gold Cups and that's the best winning performance I've seen.
He pulverized them and in the process bottomed himself. The Gold Cup is such a hard race that horses that don't win it, that come back for another go and then win it are even rarer. It's a unique test, they go a yard quicker than any other 3 miles chase, the ground undulates and of course there is the extra 500 yards, most of which is uphill to contend with. It's brutal, every year, regardless of the quality of the field. |
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May be Denman didn't quite reproduce his GC win rating but he was still very good and continued to race. His RPR when winning a second Hennessy was only 1 point below his best and then his third at Newbury and second to Long run were both very close to that. So many other GC winners either don't run much more or if they do they never get close to the form. Imperial Commander is another good example.
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Not sure about this argument.
Surely, the Gold Cup is harder on horses that DON'T win it rather than those that do? And yet we see Djakadam, Don Poli, Cue Card, Irish Cavalier etc all running this season, seemingly not diminished by their efforts. Taking last year's renewal, Don Cossack had nothing like a hard race. "He could have gone round again" said his jockey. Failure to come back and defend is, in my view, far more attributable to the long career that leads up to such a triumph than the race itself. In Coneygree's case, he'd always been injury prone and was seemingly as good as ever in his run following the Gold Cup. In Don Cossack's case, he'd been running for five full seasons and, being a huge horse whose connections sought better ground whenever possible, the cumulative strain eventually told. I don't think the Gold Cup in either case was the cause of their problems. |
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Failure to come back and defend is, in my view, far more attributable to the long career that leads up to such a triumph than the race itself.
Agreed. I don't believe the Gold Cup bottoms horses. With the gruelling nature of racing and steeplechasing in particular many horses only have one season at their peak. Those like Dessie and Kauto who do it year after year are rare. Even some legends of the sport like Burrough Hill Lad only had one great season. |
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Don't agree. Usually only the first 3 or 4 finishers have a hard race as the others are eased or pulled up and don't have to gallop the full distance flat out. There are always exceptions but if you backed the winner ante post for the next running you would only have collected twice in the last 27 years, both on Best Mate. Even Kauto didn't win 2 in a row.
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we saw the winner today, didn't we?
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best price is now 7/4 prob shorter on the day?
4/1 was a good price |
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thistlecrack out omg!!!!!!!!!!!!
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