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The Dragon
29 Oct 16 20:51
Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 40,268 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Thistlecrack as low as 4/1, crazy price-  laying for me
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Report The Dragon November 2, 2016 9:37 PM GMT
any views , first jump over fences and goes to head of betting for gold cup, didn't see it but hells teeth has to be a lay
Report Can't Catch Me November 2, 2016 9:59 PM GMT
As impressive as he was, it's surely a ridiculous price.
Report impossible123 November 2, 2016 10:11 PM GMT
One of the best chase debut by a complete novice, and definitely a 'lay' at 4/1 with just one run over fences against 3rd graders. The current price is far from justified but solely on the uncertainties of the reigning champion, Don Cossack, Vautour (target/stamina limitation), Coneygree (long absence/fragility), Djakadam (fully exposed) and the ageing Cue Card. Should Thistlecrack run in the King George (let's hope he does) more will be revealed.
Report impossible123 November 5, 2016 4:44 PM GMT
That was a seriously good performance by Valseur Lido (14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup) beating Silviniaco Conti by an easy 11 lengths. A genuine Gold Cup contender?
Report unclepuncle November 5, 2016 10:38 PM GMT
Definitely a viable contender especially on decent ground.
Report impossible123 November 6, 2016 3:00 PM GMT
Valseur Lido s 12/1 for the King George over x'mas. One of the 4 entered by WPM for the King George ie Avant Tout, was pulled up today leaving Vautour (7/2)2the most likely of the remaining 3 who are Douvan and Vroum Vroum Mag (14/1 and 100/1 respectively.

Valseur Lido is only 7yrs old and open to improvement this year and next; Don Poli looks like Grand National bound.
Report morpteh mackem November 6, 2016 5:55 PM GMT
and no Vatour now Sad. rip
Report impossible123 November 12, 2016 1:28 PM GMT
Thistlecrack will not be carrying my money after today's jumping display.
Report The Dragon November 14, 2016 6:51 PM GMT
layed at 4/1 crazy p[rioce
Report The Dragon November 14, 2016 6:52 PM GMT
be surprised if it goes for it tbbh
Report The Dragon November 14, 2016 6:54 PM GMT
just had a look 3/1 in placesShocked
Report ZenMaster November 21, 2016 8:13 AM GMT
Thstlecrack schooled alongside Native River at a good clip on Saturday. Colin was very impressed with him.

As good as Cue Card, Thistlecrack will have too many gears for him come March and those doubting 7/2 was too skinny will end up thinking he should have been 2/7.Wink
Report ZenMaster November 21, 2016 8:13 AM GMT
*As good as Cue Card is
Report The Dragon November 30, 2016 8:51 PM GMT
5/2 now still a crazy price imvho
Report The Dragon November 30, 2016 8:53 PM GMT
I see some bookies are offering empire of dirt at25/1 after its impressive run at the weeknd
Report Roselier December 1, 2016 8:08 AM GMT
Minella Rocco is one that seems to be having his light hidden under a bushel somewhat. There's no doubting there is potential improvement in him at such a young age. A mark of 159 may look a bit of an oversight in a few weeks time.
Report Autocue December 29, 2016 12:52 PM GMT
Looks like Coneygree is in a worse state than they've been letting on. If he gets there at all it will be without a prep run.
Report impossible123 December 29, 2016 4:45 PM GMT
Cue Card could be backed at 6/1 here (earlier 9/1) without Thistlecrack, value I'd have thought if he runs.
Report sixtwosix December 29, 2016 8:17 PM GMT
Hard to see Coneygree even running based upon the latest media reports.
Report sageform December 30, 2016 11:38 AM GMT
I can't see past Thistlecrack if he turns up fit and well and Native River looks the biggest danger. The Irish contenders finished in a heap in he Lexus so either they are all very good or more likely all just below top class.
Report impossible123 December 30, 2016 6:41 PM GMT
I'm an admirer of Native River especially his last two winning prices - they were tasty.

But Native River is not a 2nd fav Gold Cup (GC) horse; he's been winning over a mark of 151 - at least 25lbs below a GC winner; his win from the front in the Coral Welsh National looked impressive but he was only giving 14lbs to the bottom weight and not 28lbs - the 2nd and 3rd in the race had only won two races between them since 2014; he only carried 11-1 in the Hennessy!

Personally, at the moment Native River is only a very good handicapper, young and improving but not a Gold Cup horse (yet).
Report sageform December 30, 2016 8:05 PM GMT
Agreed but he did win the 2 most valuable and competitive staying handicaps of the season easily and the key asset is stamina. The Gold Cup is nearer to 3.5 miles than 3 so any stamina doubts will be exposed. That rules out the likes of Don Poli, Valseur Lido and Josses Hill. If Cue Card and Coneygree don't run, then surely you are down to Thistlecrack, Don Cosssack who might not get a prep run, Djakadam who has had his chances and Native River.
Report unclepuncle December 30, 2016 8:40 PM GMT
Native River is definitely going the right way, and lets not forget that Jodami couldn't even win the Hennessey (100/30fav) off 151 when carrying just 10st 2lb (beaten by a 40/1 shot who was 21lb out of the h'capShocked) yet he went on to win the Gold Cup the following spring and would have won another with a half decent jockey on his back.
Report impossible123 December 30, 2016 11:14 PM GMT
Native River is a good young horse who is improving by leaps and bounds. Nonetheless, he is still rated 163 (from 151) after the Coral Welsh National which is at least 15lbs below a GC winner. Personally, I think he won this race thro' sheer stamina and constitution. Apart from him there was not one single distinguished runner eg past KG/GC runner, in the field; his carrying top weight looked good on paper but only 14lbs than any one runner.

If Native River carries on improving at this rate then come 2018 GC he'd be a force to be reckoned with, but it is only 10 weeks to the Festival. Maybe he might take with chance in the KG next year.
Report metro john December 31, 2016 10:36 AM GMT

Dec 30, 2016 -- 8:40PM, unclepuncle wrote:

Native River is definitely going the right way, and lets not forget that Jodami couldn't even win the Hennessey (100/30fav) off 151 when carrying just 10st 2lb (beaten by a 40/1 shot who was 21lb out of the h'cap) yet he went on to win the Gold Cup the following spring and would have won another with a half decent jockey on his back.

One of the great mysteries.

Report Autocue December 31, 2016 11:28 AM GMT
Master Oats won the Welsh National off 154 and went on to win the Gold Cup in the same season. I think Native River's a solid each way bet.
Report bustino January 2, 2017 11:48 PM GMT
racehorses are for racing think Bradstock wraps conetgree in cottonwool a bit ott.........ok hes fragilebut srely can get ready hose apparrently slighly jarred with two months to prepare him wish horse was with a more aggressive trainer allow him opportunity prove his legacy.

bradstock has horses interest at heart but loke a soldier is trained for war the aintree bowl or punchestown gold cup are two bit consilation prizes.Cue card looked 80% of his former self finishing alongside silvio conti
Report cryoftruth January 3, 2017 8:57 AM GMT

I remember you very well, the toughest s.o.b. ever.

Your win from Ashmore on the Coronation Cup was a fantsastic effort. With modern wfa you would have beaten Grundy at Ascot.

Not sure about your dismissal of Don Poli. He ran a cracker ffirst time out and may be a better horse this year. He is a huge price for the Gold Cup given hisnclass.
Report bustino January 3, 2017 12:24 PM GMT
i backed him in lexus.....boyles were 22/1 during day...........not sure how handicapper rated him and outlander but feel if there is a horse to beat thislecrack its a fit coneygree but agree has a chance and thislecrack may defeat himself
Report Autocue January 3, 2017 3:57 PM GMT
I'm not convinced by your logic bustino. If Cue Card is only 80% of his normal self then his thrashing of Coneygree gives that horse no chance in the Gold Cup.
Report sageform January 3, 2017 5:53 PM GMT
Jodami had to be ridden to use his relentless gallop as he had no finishing speed. When Rushing Wild set a strong gallop, Jodami was able to track him and the rest were off the bridle more than a mile out and Jodami trotted up. In 1994 there were 6 horses on the bridle at the third last and Mark Dwyer just sat there and got run over by The Fellow, a horse with finishing speed as he did in the Hennessy. Native River is similar but if allowed to lead, he can grind most opposition into the ground but I can't see him getting Thistlecrack of the bridle.
Report impossible123 January 3, 2017 6:33 PM GMT
If Native River takes the field at a real clip for a long while that would set it up for Thistlecrack and Cue Card; Thistlecrack could be susceptible to the odd novicey error/s but Cue Card could/would exploit it to the full, is that why Tizzard has suggested Cue Card for the Ryanair? Out with the old, in with the new?
Report bustino January 4, 2017 12:47 AM GMT
i was referring to cue cards run in king george and how close 3rd and 4th finished to him
Report cryoftruth January 4, 2017 7:09 AM GMT
The King George form is dodgy. Cue Card never ran any sort of race - he is far better than that and usually thrashes Silviano Conte these days. A combination of a right handed track and good ground (maybe he's a bit past it too) did for him. This brings Thistlecrack down a bit. He is very short for the Gold Cup and dour stayers like Don Poli, Native River and realy class like Don Cossack will be very different from what he has faced yet over fences.
The chase form he has can still be taken to pieces. However the big issue for those opposing him is the engine he has. Nothing could get him off the bit last season in grade one staying hurdles.
Report Autocue January 9, 2017 4:52 PM GMT
Coneygree out. Probably a blessing as he'd have led a lot of punters down the garden path thinking he would be as good as he was two years ago.
Report sixtwosix January 9, 2017 4:53 PM GMT
Hardly had to be Nostradamus to see Coneygree not running.
Report boy wonder 07 January 10, 2017 2:32 PM GMT
I bet Thistlecrack at 7/1 on sept 2nd and after betting Native River to win the hennessy I went in e/w for gold cup at 20/1 and again on the eve of the welsh national at 20/1 with Ladbrokes sitting pretty now and could see as few as 7 runners on the day
Report A_T January 10, 2017 3:14 PM GMT
evens at post on reasonable ground would seem a fair price to me. he's much better than any other 3m chaser around - your basically betting on him jumping round and staying the extra 2f. but hhe race itself suits plodders and some top horses never won the Gold Cup - Pendil, Bula, One Man, Weyward Lad etc.
Report boy wonder 07 January 10, 2017 5:09 PM GMT
I do honestly think if Native River is within 3 Lengths of Thistlecrack turning in Native River will win
Report ZenMaster January 10, 2017 8:54 PM GMT
I am not sure how Native River can win when he is all out to go the gallop in staying handicaps.

I doesn't add it up to me. Thistlecrack has struggled to come off the bridle but all of sudden Native River is touted as the next horse to do it.

As much as i admire Native River for being a brilliant nNational type, he was all out to beat Carole's Destrier.  The gap in class is enormous.
Native river's mark of 168 is for the National scene, he may run on into a place like a Hedgehunter.
Report sageform January 11, 2017 8:15 AM GMT
The only doubt about Thistlecrack is the extra distance and nothing in his record casts doubt on his ability to get 3 miles 3 furlongs. Staying 3 miles over hurdles at the World Hurdle level is the stiffest test of stamina outside of extreme races like the Aintree and Scottish National.
Report Desmond Orchard January 11, 2017 1:07 PM GMT
Another potential candidate falls by the wayside, with The Don being retired.
The Gold Cup is such an attritional race, hence why multiple winners are so rare and horses having their first run it boasting a terrific record. Winning it seems to diminish all but the rarest of beasts.
If Thistlecrack lines up and is odds on on the day, I'll have to lay, simply on principal. But not to huge stakes, he's the likeliest winner on what I've seen so far. I'm getting a few rags in my book each way at decent odds, in the hope that one or more could fill the frame - or, in the event of a mishap with the favourite, give us a shock winner.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2017 1:36 PM GMT
I think Native River would be a very unlikely winner: he'd need to finish infront of Thistlecrack (very, very unlikely), Cue Card and Djakadam (again doubly unlikely).
Report Desmond Orchard January 11, 2017 2:11 PM GMT
Assuming they all turn up and complete.
His rating of 168 puts him bang there in a Gold Cup in which a relatively mediocre performance could easily be good enough, given the thinning of the field we've already seen - you've put up a novice, an 11yo and a horse beaten in the race twice before as being the principal protagonists. His profile is much more attractive than any of those, from a stats pov.
Lord Windermere's winning performance was a 163 and that race had horses of the calibre of Bobsworth and Silvi Conte lining up, it could be that NR merely has to run to his current mark. He cannot be dismissed.
Report Autocue January 11, 2017 5:56 PM GMT
I find the Don Cossack story somewhat disturbing. Normally trainers would give a horse a year off following a tendon injury. This news about heat in its leg again smacks of the horse having been rushed back for the Gold Cup. It's a numbers game for Gigginstown and Elliot and one gets the impression the Don is a victim of their championship battle with Mullins.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2017 8:14 PM GMT
To be fair Gigginstown had always said the welfare of Don Cossack was paramount post the injury and if connections could not get him back for this season he'd be retired; recently the vibes and soundings from connections were positive however, once up-in-tempo with his work that proved not so thus today's news.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2017 8:30 PM GMT
Ricci on Djakadam when interviewed by the RP: "Djakadam would be entered in the Ryanair and that option would be considered if it was quicker ground but he would be heading to the Gold Cup if it was soft."

Vautour all over again (?)....with an early warning as courtesy perhaps. But was it with the blessing of Mullins?
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2017 8:34 PM GMT
Surely it should be the other way around? Ryanair if soft?
Report sixtwosix January 11, 2017 8:51 PM GMT
Last man standing to win the Gold Cup at this rate.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2017 8:51 PM GMT
Djakadam needs soft ground to be at his most effective, and he stays the GC distance well; the Ryanair is a bit short however, he could run others ragged from the front right to the line, if necessary. On the other hand quick ground in the GC does not favour him but many of the others who stay the distance just as well.

I think, post the Lexus and emergence of Thistlecrack, connections have come to accept that it would be a much taller order to win it, and the Ryanair gives them the best chance of a win even with Cue Card in it. Ironically, Cue Card is in demand here.
Report sixtwosix January 11, 2017 8:53 PM GMT
Djakadam won the Thystes by running the field into the ground from the front , about time they tried this in the Gold Cup , as he doesn't pick up quite as well as he appears to be travelling when waited with.
Report sageform January 12, 2017 1:19 PM GMT
History is littered with Cheltenham Gold Cup and CH winners that don't come back to defend their crowns. It is a very hard school. Apart from Kauto and Denman, very few recent GC winners have reproduced the run Long Run and Bobsworth both looked good enough to come back and win again as did Coneygree and Don Cossack but their subsequent efforts are more typical than Kauto or Best Mate.
Report Desmond Orchard January 12, 2017 3:39 PM GMT
Not sure Denman ever reproduced that run Sage, admirable though his later career was. I've had 30 years watching Gold Cups and that's the best winning performance I've seen.
He pulverized them and in the process bottomed himself.
The Gold Cup is such a hard race that horses that don't win it, that come back for another go and then win it are even rarer. It's a unique test, they go a yard quicker than any other 3 miles chase, the ground undulates and of course there is the extra 500 yards, most of which is uphill to contend with. It's brutal, every year, regardless of the quality of the field.
Report sageform January 13, 2017 12:18 PM GMT
May be Denman didn't quite reproduce his GC win rating but he was still very good and continued to race. His RPR when winning a second Hennessy was only 1 point below his best and then his third at Newbury and second to Long run were both very close to that. So many other GC winners either don't run much more or if they do they never get close to the form. Imperial Commander is another good example.
Report cyclops January 14, 2017 11:31 AM GMT
Not sure about this argument.
Surely, the Gold Cup is harder on horses that DON'T win it rather than those that do?
And yet we see Djakadam, Don Poli, Cue Card, Irish Cavalier etc all running this season, seemingly not diminished by their efforts. Taking last year's renewal, Don Cossack had nothing like a hard race. "He could have gone round again" said his jockey.
Failure to come back and defend is, in my view, far more attributable to the long career that leads up to such a triumph than the race itself.
In Coneygree's case, he'd always been injury prone and was seemingly as good as ever in his run following the Gold Cup. In Don Cossack's case, he'd been running for five full seasons and, being a huge horse whose connections sought better ground whenever possible,  the cumulative strain eventually told. I don't think the Gold Cup in either case was the cause of their problems.
Report A_T January 14, 2017 2:03 PM GMT
Failure to come back and defend is, in my view, far more attributable to the long career that leads up to such a triumph than the race itself.

Agreed. I don't believe the Gold Cup bottoms horses. With the gruelling nature of racing and steeplechasing in particular many horses only have one season at their peak. Those like Dessie and Kauto who do it year after year are rare. Even some legends of the sport like Burrough Hill Lad only had one great season.
Report sageform January 20, 2017 2:43 PM GMT
Don't agree. Usually only the first 3 or 4 finishers have a hard race as the others are eased or pulled up and don't have to gallop the full distance flat out. There are always exceptions but if you backed the winner ante post for the next running you would only have collected twice in the last 27 years, both on Best Mate. Even Kauto didn't win 2 in a row.
Report TheFear February 11, 2017 9:53 PM GMT
we saw the winner today, didn't we?
Report The Dragon February 12, 2017 7:32 PM GMT
best price is now 7/4 prob shorter on the day?
4/1 was a good price
Report The Dragon February 21, 2017 6:38 PM GMT
thistlecrack out omg!!!!!!!!!!!!
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