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The Dragon
29 Oct 16 19:51
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Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 36,647 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Thistlecrack as low as 4/1, crazy price-  laying for me

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Replies: 60
By:
The Dragon
When: 02 Nov 16 21:37
any views , first jump over fences and goes to head of betting for gold cup, didn't see it but hells teeth has to be a lay
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 02 Nov 16 21:59
As impressive as he was, it's surely a ridiculous price.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Nov 16 22:11
One of the best chase debut by a complete novice, and definitely a 'lay' at 4/1 with just one run over fences against 3rd graders. The current price is far from justified but solely on the uncertainties of the reigning champion, Don Cossack, Vautour (target/stamina limitation), Coneygree (long absence/fragility), Djakadam (fully exposed) and the ageing Cue Card. Should Thistlecrack run in the King George (let's hope he does) more will be revealed.
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Nov 16 16:44
That was a seriously good performance by Valseur Lido (14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup) beating Silviniaco Conti by an easy 11 lengths. A genuine Gold Cup contender?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 05 Nov 16 22:38
Definitely a viable contender especially on decent ground.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Nov 16 14:00
Valseur Lido s 12/1 for the King George over x'mas. One of the 4 entered by WPM for the King George ie Avant Tout, was pulled up today leaving Vautour (7/2)2the most likely of the remaining 3 who are Douvan and Vroum Vroum Mag (14/1 and 100/1 respectively.

Valseur Lido is only 7yrs old and open to improvement this year and next; Don Poli looks like Grand National bound.
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 06 Nov 16 16:55
and no Vatour now Sad. rip
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Nov 16 12:28
Thistlecrack will not be carrying my money after today's jumping display.
By:
The Dragon
When: 14 Nov 16 17:51
layed at 4/1 crazy p[rioce
By:
The Dragon
When: 14 Nov 16 17:52
be surprised if it goes for it tbbh
By:
The Dragon
When: 14 Nov 16 17:54
just had a look 3/1 in placesShocked
By:
ZenMaster
When: 21 Nov 16 07:13
Thstlecrack schooled alongside Native River at a good clip on Saturday. Colin was very impressed with him.

As good as Cue Card, Thistlecrack will have too many gears for him come March and those doubting 7/2 was too skinny will end up thinking he should have been 2/7.Wink
By:
ZenMaster
When: 21 Nov 16 07:13
*As good as Cue Card is
By:
The Dragon
When: 30 Nov 16 19:51
5/2 now still a crazy price imvho
By:
The Dragon
When: 30 Nov 16 19:53
I see some bookies are offering empire of dirt at25/1 after its impressive run at the weeknd
By:
Roselier
When: 01 Dec 16 07:08
Minella Rocco is one that seems to be having his light hidden under a bushel somewhat. There's no doubting there is potential improvement in him at such a young age. A mark of 159 may look a bit of an oversight in a few weeks time.
By:
Autocue
When: 29 Dec 16 11:52
Looks like Coneygree is in a worse state than they've been letting on. If he gets there at all it will be without a prep run.
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Dec 16 15:45
Cue Card could be backed at 6/1 here (earlier 9/1) without Thistlecrack, value I'd have thought if he runs.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 29 Dec 16 19:17
Hard to see Coneygree even running based upon the latest media reports.
By:
sageform
When: 30 Dec 16 10:38
I can't see past Thistlecrack if he turns up fit and well and Native River looks the biggest danger. The Irish contenders finished in a heap in he Lexus so either they are all very good or more likely all just below top class.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Dec 16 17:41
I'm an admirer of Native River especially his last two winning prices - they were tasty.

But Native River is not a 2nd fav Gold Cup (GC) horse; he's been winning over a mark of 151 - at least 25lbs below a GC winner; his win from the front in the Coral Welsh National looked impressive but he was only giving 14lbs to the bottom weight and not 28lbs - the 2nd and 3rd in the race had only won two races between them since 2014; he only carried 11-1 in the Hennessy!

Personally, at the moment Native River is only a very good handicapper, young and improving but not a Gold Cup horse (yet).
By:
sageform
When: 30 Dec 16 19:05
Agreed but he did win the 2 most valuable and competitive staying handicaps of the season easily and the key asset is stamina. The Gold Cup is nearer to 3.5 miles than 3 so any stamina doubts will be exposed. That rules out the likes of Don Poli, Valseur Lido and Josses Hill. If Cue Card and Coneygree don't run, then surely you are down to Thistlecrack, Don Cosssack who might not get a prep run, Djakadam who has had his chances and Native River.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 30 Dec 16 19:40
Native River is definitely going the right way, and lets not forget that Jodami couldn't even win the Hennessey (100/30fav) off 151 when carrying just 10st 2lb (beaten by a 40/1 shot who was 21lb out of the h'capShocked) yet he went on to win the Gold Cup the following spring and would have won another with a half decent jockey on his back.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Dec 16 22:14
Native River is a good young horse who is improving by leaps and bounds. Nonetheless, he is still rated 163 (from 151) after the Coral Welsh National which is at least 15lbs below a GC winner. Personally, I think he won this race thro' sheer stamina and constitution. Apart from him there was not one single distinguished runner eg past KG/GC runner, in the field; his carrying top weight looked good on paper but only 14lbs than any one runner.

If Native River carries on improving at this rate then come 2018 GC he'd be a force to be reckoned with, but it is only 10 weeks to the Festival. Maybe he might take with chance in the KG next year.
By:
metro john
When: 31 Dec 16 09:36

Dec 30, 2016 -- 2:40PM, unclepuncle wrote:


Native River is definitely going the right way, and lets not forget that Jodami couldn't even win the Hennessey (100/30fav) off 151 when carrying just 10st 2lb (beaten by a 40/1 shot who was 21lb out of the h'cap) yet he went on to win the Gold Cup the following spring and would have won another with a half decent jockey on his back.


One of the great mysteries.

By:
Autocue
When: 31 Dec 16 10:28
Master Oats won the Welsh National off 154 and went on to win the Gold Cup in the same season. I think Native River's a solid each way bet.
By:
bustino
When: 02 Jan 17 22:48
racehorses are for racing think Bradstock wraps conetgree in cottonwool a bit ott.........ok hes fragilebut srely can get ready hose apparrently slighly jarred with two months to prepare him wish horse was with a more aggressive trainer allow him opportunity prove his legacy.

bradstock has horses interest at heart but loke a soldier is trained for war the aintree bowl or punchestown gold cup are two bit consilation prizes.Cue card looked 80% of his former self finishing alongside silvio conti
By:
cryoftruth
When: 03 Jan 17 07:57
Bustino

I remember you very well, the toughest s.o.b. ever.

Your win from Ashmore on the Coronation Cup was a fantsastic effort. With modern wfa you would have beaten Grundy at Ascot.

Not sure about your dismissal of Don Poli. He ran a cracker ffirst time out and may be a better horse this year. He is a huge price for the Gold Cup given hisnclass.
By:
bustino
When: 03 Jan 17 11:24
i backed him in lexus.....boyles were 22/1 during day...........not sure how handicapper rated him and outlander but feel if there is a horse to beat thislecrack its a fit coneygree but agree has a chance and thislecrack may defeat himself
By:
Autocue
When: 03 Jan 17 14:57
I'm not convinced by your logic bustino. If Cue Card is only 80% of his normal self then his thrashing of Coneygree gives that horse no chance in the Gold Cup.
By:
sageform
When: 03 Jan 17 16:53
Jodami had to be ridden to use his relentless gallop as he had no finishing speed. When Rushing Wild set a strong gallop, Jodami was able to track him and the rest were off the bridle more than a mile out and Jodami trotted up. In 1994 there were 6 horses on the bridle at the third last and Mark Dwyer just sat there and got run over by The Fellow, a horse with finishing speed as he did in the Hennessy. Native River is similar but if allowed to lead, he can grind most opposition into the ground but I can't see him getting Thistlecrack of the bridle.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jan 17 17:33
If Native River takes the field at a real clip for a long while that would set it up for Thistlecrack and Cue Card; Thistlecrack could be susceptible to the odd novicey error/s but Cue Card could/would exploit it to the full, is that why Tizzard has suggested Cue Card for the Ryanair? Out with the old, in with the new?
By:
bustino
When: 03 Jan 17 23:47
i was referring to cue cards run in king george and how close 3rd and 4th finished to him
By:
cryoftruth
When: 04 Jan 17 06:09
The King George form is dodgy. Cue Card never ran any sort of race - he is far better than that and usually thrashes Silviano Conte these days. A combination of a right handed track and good ground (maybe he's a bit past it too) did for him. This brings Thistlecrack down a bit. He is very short for the Gold Cup and dour stayers like Don Poli, Native River and realy class like Don Cossack will be very different from what he has faced yet over fences.
The chase form he has can still be taken to pieces. However the big issue for those opposing him is the engine he has. Nothing could get him off the bit last season in grade one staying hurdles.
By:
Autocue
When: 09 Jan 17 15:52
Coneygree out. Probably a blessing as he'd have led a lot of punters down the garden path thinking he would be as good as he was two years ago.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 09 Jan 17 15:53
Hardly had to be Nostradamus to see Coneygree not running.
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 10 Jan 17 13:32
I bet Thistlecrack at 7/1 on sept 2nd and after betting Native River to win the hennessy I went in e/w for gold cup at 20/1 and again on the eve of the welsh national at 20/1 with Ladbrokes sitting pretty now and could see as few as 7 runners on the day
By:
A_T
When: 10 Jan 17 14:14
evens at post on reasonable ground would seem a fair price to me. he's much better than any other 3m chaser around - your basically betting on him jumping round and staying the extra 2f. but hhe race itself suits plodders and some top horses never won the Gold Cup - Pendil, Bula, One Man, Weyward Lad etc.
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 10 Jan 17 16:09
I do honestly think if Native River is within 3 Lengths of Thistlecrack turning in Native River will win
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