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sageform
28 Oct 16 07:28
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 6,407 | Blogger: sageform's blog
Theatre Guide runs today and Native River tomorrow as Colin Tizzard brings out his big guns. TG has not run below 3 miles for ages and is unlikely to have the speed for 2.5 so I assume that this is a prep run. NR is over hurdles so would not get a penalty for winning but might not be quite good enough. with her horses right back to form, Rebecca Curtis has O'Faiolains Boy well handicapped.
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Report sageform November 20, 2016 7:31 AM GMT
I shall wait until an hour before the race as conditions could be changing all week depending on rain etc. A short list of stables in blinding form is a good place to start. Tizzard ,Hobbs, George (although he had a slightly disappointing weekend) and Jefferson are my stables to watch at the moment. Henderson is quietly coming into form and loves Newbury.
Report ReaseHeath November 20, 2016 10:25 AM GMT
except Hobbs and George don't have any entries in the race...

which might be good news for Native River backers as Dickie will probably be available to ride and persuade him to run like he did at Aintree.
Report The Dragon November 20, 2016 12:23 PM GMT
I'm on Triolo Dalene at 40/1
Report sintonian November 20, 2016 12:55 PM GMT
I personally think Saphir Du Rheu is a cert for this. He should have no issue with the going either as he has won on soft and Heavy at ffos Las.

My only concern is if they get so much rain the meeting is abandonded!
Report forgotmyusername November 20, 2016 12:55 PM GMT
Has there been any word re Henri Parry Morgan going for the race?
Report GI MAC November 20, 2016 1:29 PM GMT
Had a good look at this race today, I like a few at this stage: Un Temps Pour Tout and Native River both have strong claims, Outlander is interesting if he showed up, Harry Parry Morgan could be on a good mark but a prep would have been good to see. Triolo D'Alene likes this place but would only consider if good ground.

Local Show is interesting off a low weight, but he seems to be better RH and must have soft ground so not sure atm. Otago Trail is also catching my eye, but they have been trying to get a prep race into him, which they haven't, so big ask to win but can see it run well.

I have decided to have small punt at this stage on Hadrians Approach, still retains plenty of ability (6th in Betfred off 144 back in April whilst on the comeback trail) and he has dropped to 139 which is fair. Currently on 9.9 but I expect the weights to go up by 4lbs with Smad Place top weight, so he may only be 1 lb wrong running off a featherweight of 10st. A punt as I've said but at 40/1 one I'm happy to take.
Report Wicketd November 20, 2016 11:59 PM GMT
two i like in this if the ground is soft, WOUNDED WARRIOR at 40/1 and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at 33/1
Report sageform November 21, 2016 8:39 AM GMT
I would have discounted Venetia until the last 2 days but they are running well enough first time out to give them a look.
Report unclepuncle November 21, 2016 8:44 AM GMT
sintonian
20 Nov 16 12:55

I personally think Saphir Du Rheu is a cert for this. He should have no issue with the going either as he has won on soft and Heavy at ffos Las.

My only concern is if they get so much rain the meeting is abandonded!


Hadn't really considered him after his defeat last year but have just watched the video back to see if I missed anything.

He was well ultimately well beat last year after jumping, and travelling really well just behind Smad Place - he just seemed to be outstayed from the 2nd last and was pretty legless after the last. He is 10lb lower in the ratings, and 21lbs better off with Smad Place, and perhaps just as crucially he will have a nice racing weight this time rather than lugging top weight so I can see your reasons for fancying him.
Definite saver material for me.
Report barnesey November 21, 2016 9:41 AM GMT
Does anyone know what's happening with drumacoo? I read somewhere he wasn't qualified for the race but not sure why! He is still in the betting with high street books and there is still money up on here for a few quid wanting to back him?
I think he has a nice weight and a good chance in this but having already backed him I don't want to throw anymore money on him if there is no chance of a run?
Report shockster November 21, 2016 9:51 AM GMT
Trainer thought Drumacoo wasn't qualified because of insufficient runs and said so in Weekender.  However, Weatherby's later confirmed he was eligible to run.
Report barnesey November 21, 2016 10:08 AM GMT
Thanks for the reply shock much appreciated
Report paulo47 November 21, 2016 12:51 PM GMT
Just not sure about LH vs RH tracks , though Newbury is very fair .
Report Facts November 21, 2016 5:26 PM GMT
Taken the 9/1 on Vyta Du Roc
Report everton1978 November 21, 2016 7:38 PM GMT
Smad Place ran an absolute blinder (with this race in mind) first time out. Form franked nicely on the weekend. No ground concerns. Best on a flat track, possibly even this one. Slight issue carrying too weight but those at the top of the handicap don't have too bad a record recently. As always there are 1 or 2 better handicapped horses lurking but if any firm go ew 1st 5 or 6 on the day I will be smashing this
Report sintonian November 21, 2016 8:44 PM GMT
PFN firmly of the opinion he was burly for his Ascot run too, Uncle. 4 times in the last 10 runnings the race has been won by horses having their second attempt at it. I'm hoping Noel Fehil rides.

I have also backed Wounded Warrior who runs off the same rating. At 40/1 he's too big to leave out looking at his novice chase form. But he could head for the Becher too. We'll see. Pandorama was the last horse Noel Meade ran in the race I think.
Report the bloob November 21, 2016 9:05 PM GMT
the Houblon des Obeaux has been backed would suggest that people are expecting heavy going, RP site shows currently good to soft, any rain in the area today?
Report Facts November 21, 2016 11:31 PM GMT
Anything trained by VW needs to be backed off the boards whenever it rains according to every racing ' expert'/ pundit in the media.
Report duffy November 22, 2016 12:05 AM GMT
No firm thoughts but I think I'll have a bet on Blaklion who probably won't get any credit for his RSA win until he backs it up in another big race, he won't mind the ground and will be able to guts it out
Report harry callaghan November 22, 2016 12:38 PM GMT
tricky race this as always...

i'm not keen on the first five in the betting...gagging to see sapphir in the ryannair chase off the front end but will probably never happen, he is a short runner for me until he proves me otherwise...overall he has been quite a disappointing type really but is on a very reasonable mark for this considering his career and i can see why he is fancied again with his trainer starting off in very good form...he continues to annoy me in all fairness and i cannot put a finger on what he really wants

vyta du roc is just a slow boat who i fancied for this i'm just not sure he is an improver after any number of bruising battles down the years, he has his ground to his liking but the deeper i delve into him, the more i unearth things i don't like, he should be a 14 poke and 8's makes no appeal...

i had quite a decent bet on native river in the 4 miler but he was ridden with restraint and his jumping never held up before coming home strongly, he certainly hit lots of flat spots that day and joined in when it was all over... he has since been ridden more prominently and it has certainly helped but i think he is on a stiff mark for this, although i haven't discounted him his price is plenty short enough...i see plenty of front runners so he will have to jump well

i missed the boat with smad place last year and have wish to go to the funeral this year and for me this is a whole lot deeper to the race he won last year and from an 11lbs lower mark, he has been trained for the race again and i see no reason why he couldn't place, it will be a monumental effort to concede the weight but he may just out fox me again...plenty of front runners will always leave him vulnerable to the closer and he is going to have to put plenty away here to triumph, i'll never knock him as he is a proper horse on his day

un temps won well on his reappearance and is another trained for this like many others, he needs to prove to me he can win off this mark and may end up in condition races 9/1 is tight, he is looking difficult to place in my book

anyway still trying to find the right angle to play but will not be playing the top of the market... although they all look to hold there chance, plus have all had prep race, so maybe i'm just plain wrong about the race and looking further down, it isn't easy to find the right play at this stage for me
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 22, 2016 4:38 PM GMT
Extremely wet sunday & monday. I reckon it will be soft at least, but it does drain well. No rain so far on Tuesday.
Report gpz6316 November 22, 2016 5:08 PM GMT
reminds me of the 01 race won by a tenacious street fighter whats up boys over  the big scopey g1 3m hurdler behrajan . weather wise no rain from Tuesday according to the bbc long range report . if theres plenty of juice I like blacklion if its good then native river and the dark horse is empire of dirt .
Report Facts November 22, 2016 5:40 PM GMT
The 2002 Grand National

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jqnhXgTNtQU

Had been backing What's Up Boys for weeks before the race.
Report Roselier November 22, 2016 7:07 PM GMT
The Challow Hurdle form from a couple of seasons back does show Vyta Du Roc in a good light. In these days of over inflated OR's Vyta does look as though he is on an attractive mark of 143. It looks workable. Given that Reynoldstown form, you would think he should be around the 150 mark. The jockey booking is key I think. Jacob is up at Newcastle, so will await with interest. If it's Tinkler, then I'm no longer interested.
Report sintonian November 22, 2016 7:58 PM GMT
Fair write up Harry.

Can see your point a little with SDR possibly being a short runner, he's looked that way sometimes over the last season. However, I'm taking the view he's just not put it all together over fences yet, and off his current mark he'll stand a better chance of seeing out the trip. He's been campaigned a lot over 3 miles in the top races so I can't see an angle for the trainer having any doubts. He's won over 3m+ in his hurdle days so perhaps it's just a case of not being the complete package over fences...yet. He's got a Welsh National entry, fwiw.
Report GI MAC November 22, 2016 8:36 PM GMT
SDR might be 10lbs below his mark of last year, but he was 22 lengths back in 5th; he has gone backwards in my opinion since this run. His best runs have always been on good or g/s ground, if it's soft he has it all to do imo.
Report sintonian November 22, 2016 8:50 PM GMT
Carruthers got beat 20 lengths the year prior to his win. 10lb lower next time and he won. It's a big difference over 26.5f.
Report Can't Catch Me November 22, 2016 9:51 PM GMT
I've had a small dabble on Vyta du Roc. Got a nice weight, and think this might be his time of year. NJH has started the season in great form. He  certain to stay, just need a bit of extra rain for him now. If it does become soft by the weekend, will top up.

Think Saphir du Rheu is just as likely to hose up as pull up. He's not for me because of that, but certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win.
Report Roselier November 22, 2016 10:54 PM GMT
I think horse A is going to do this based on horse B doing something similar a few years ago is an argument that is too often used. That's for spreadsheet peeps. Making a judgement on the horse that's running in the here and now, is all that's required. That judgement should not be based on what a different horse did in a different time. Well, that's what I think anyway.
Report nocturnal November 22, 2016 11:17 PM GMT
Evening Sint/GI.....

Can see both sides of the coin with SDR, through no fault of his own his hurdles mark almost forced their hand at the start of his chasing career.

It may well be his falling mark reflects he had quite a hard time for a young horse,and another summer has seen him strengthen up,his ascot run certainly had the trainer upbeat,he has plenty 150+ chasers to gauge his wellbeing.

The other run worth a mention was the backend sandown run,jumped really well with 1st time headgear, will the ditcheat maestro reach for them again?

Roselier makes a very good point.....if you fancy one of NJH,has he any jocks left?

Still a few pieces of the jigsaw missing........looks a cracking renewal.
Report sageform November 23, 2016 8:37 AM GMT
Nicky Henderson is going to have to book the best jockey available. I doubt if owners they will be happy with Tinkler or McGrath on all of them for the next couple of months. He booked Fehily for Altior on Monday which is a sign that he is already thinking that way.
Report shockster November 23, 2016 9:30 AM GMT
I've already done VDR + SDR and not too worried about jockey bookings.  If I'm honest wouldn't mind seeing young Cobden on SDR and taking another 3lb off his back.  Have also had a saver at 95 on here if Empire Of Dirt turns up. He looked much improved at the backend of last season. Wouldn't be surprised if Local Show went well also.
Report shockster November 23, 2016 10:57 AM GMT
Wounded Warrior declared at Thurles tomorrow.  Assume it's now a non runner here on Saturday.
Report Roselier November 23, 2016 11:16 AM GMT
Double Ross, Smad Place and Native River you would think will try and go off in front. Double Ross doesn’t stay, so you would suppose he may be allowed to go off in front and then when his pace starts to drop, one of the other two will take it up. History suggests that at least one of those two, if not both should still be there jumping the last by which time the field behind are strung out across Berkshire.
Report Roselier November 23, 2016 11:20 AM GMT
Fehily is on Carole's, so NJH can't use him at the moment. He has used Moloney in the past. McGrath is on Triolo. There is no Irish racing on Saturday, so could it be Ruby on VDR?
Report Can't Catch Me November 23, 2016 11:46 AM GMT
Was just thinking the exact same thing Roselier. Reckon Ruby is most likely... he's ridden for connections enough times before and you'd have to think he fancies this meet.
Report Roselier November 23, 2016 12:13 PM GMT
The only other possible I can see is that if Regal Encore comes out BG can't do the weight for the the other two JP horses entered and that would therefore free him up.
Report Facts November 23, 2016 12:29 PM GMT
I sincerely hope BG is not on VDR.
Report shockster November 23, 2016 1:01 PM GMT
Tom O'Brien rides Vyta Du Roc in the Hennessy.   Not unhappy with that.
Report harry callaghan November 23, 2016 2:22 PM GMT
well at first glance at the race yesterday i thought i could get the top of the market beat but will have to eat humble pie a tad, although i still want to get native, sapphir and vyta...

cannot find a play from any of the outsiders...aubusson interested me a tad at 50's but 2 career starts over fences and quite a stiff mark tempers enthusiasm, although a few sheckles never harmed anybodyGrin...hadrians approach isn't without hope off of this mark either

blaklion looks a logical bet...he is tough and has always needed a run so his first run back was ok, the one thing that bugs me a tad is he has never won in a field of this size, he has only tried once and was tailed but was probably over the top at that time...he is solid though and i can see the angle if taking this big field in his stride...i haven't bet him mind you

if henry parry morgan had prepped he would be a danger to all, he is regrettably passed over at the price

i'm going round in circles a tad but think i was a tad harsh on un temps and he maybe able to take the rise in the weights, the major problem with this bet, is does he want this trip but i have to give him the chance, as just feel he has become a very uncomplicated character, whereas as a young horse he was quite a free runner...

he isn't that character anymore though... after spending hours sifting through the runners i think the price is fair on him and have played, he should be able to track the speed and out speed his rivals up the straight...a war of attrition is the unknown with him mind you, so just shut your eyes and prey the petrol gauge doesn't start flickering on the red approaching the last, he should be 5l up by then mind you, so just the longest run in ever to get the heart rate pumpingMischief
Report ReaseHeath November 23, 2016 4:44 PM GMT
No Gigginstown runners in this according to Johnny Ward (Irish Independent) on Twitter - so that's no Outlander, Wounded Warrior or Empire of Dirt - think field size limit is 24 so that means all the others are guaranteed a run except Another Hero (I assume there will be a few more withdrawals when final decs are announced tomorrow).
Report sageform November 23, 2016 4:54 PM GMT
Ruby did an interview on RUK yesterday and didn't suggest he would be riding in England over the weekend. He tipped Native River.
Report sageform November 23, 2016 5:18 PM GMT
Great memories on RUK this afternoon showing the Hennessy winners from 1998. Strong Flow looked so impressive but was never really sound again.
Report sageform November 23, 2016 5:44 PM GMT
Just seen Theatre Guide getting placed twice in the last 3 years and although I expect something to beat him again but he is surely a great place bet.
Report 1st time poster November 23, 2016 5:47 PM GMT
why isnt anyone pushing the midas man hughes for the ride on VDR
Report ReaseHeath November 23, 2016 5:56 PM GMT
looks like he already has a strong book of rides at Newcastle including Definitly Red for Brian Ellison in the Rehearsal Chase
Report gpz6316 November 23, 2016 6:31 PM GMT
no idea what a spreadsheet peep is ? if you don't take on board what has happened in the past then how would you have an iota about which horse has a chance this time ? I  look to the past to see  the race profile i should be looking for . a grade 1 hurdler around 145 plus over three miles whom is a second season chaser . then I  look at this renewal and wow native river is 145 3m ish g1 hurdler big and scopey whom would like a firmer surface and blacklion is a 145 ish 3m g1 hurdler come second season chaser who is much more of a scrapper that would need juice in the ground to blunt the natural galloping speed of native river . a carbon copy of the profiles of 01 . no idea why i cant learn from the past  and think they are the horses I should be looking closely at roselier
Report sintonian November 23, 2016 8:26 PM GMT
Roselier, if you have followed the conversation you'll see that's not the only reason I have backed him. I am just illustrating the point that 10lb over an extended 3 miles can be enough to turn around 20 lengths. Not sure what spreadsheets has to do with anything! Laugh

Fwiw, I was not entirely impressed with his jumping last time out, and he has fallen a couple of times in his career already. However I am putting it down to a lack of fitness (trainers words) and needing the run to bring him forward.
Report Meat Loaf November 23, 2016 8:32 PM GMT
For those interested in Blaklion Ryan Hatch is no longer claiming so will not be getting his 3lb allowance.

Granted he didn't get this in conditions races last year but it would have helped in this handicap.

How many lengths does Saphir du Rheu win by?
Report Can't Catch Me November 23, 2016 8:44 PM GMT
When was the last time Saphir du Rheu ran a race that made you think you'd just seen the Hennessy winner Confused
Report shockster November 23, 2016 8:48 PM GMT
Regal Encore is running Saturday so I suppose BJG will be on board.  He's inconsistent for certain, but has won after a break, is a festival winner and ran well last time out in a big Hcp at the Punchestown festival finishing 2nd.  Worth a small dabble at a big price in case it's a going day.
Report sintonian November 23, 2016 9:07 PM GMT
You could say that about the majority of the field, CCM.
Report Can't Catch Me November 23, 2016 9:28 PM GMT
Not sure tbh. I think you could have said it for all of Un Temps Pour Tout, Native River and Blaklion very recently.
Report sintonian November 23, 2016 9:34 PM GMT
None of those scream Hennessy winner to me but that's what it's all about..Cool
.. at the end of the day this is a handicap not a level weights conditions race. Some folk think SDR is the best handciapped horse others think it's Blacklion etc.
Report sintonian November 23, 2016 9:36 PM GMT
Not sure how Un Temps Pour Tout winning one chase from five says Hennessy winner off an OR of 158. Looks poorly handicapped imo
Report sintonian November 23, 2016 9:39 PM GMT
His prep run at Aintree he was entitled to win, rated 10lb higher and was receiving 4lb from runner up! Looks worst handicapped horse in the field imo.
Report Can't Catch Me November 23, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
Yes of course Sint. TBH, I posted that in the hope someone could convince me! He became a bit of a clif horse for me but have almost given up on him now. Know I will be sick if he wins... but just can't bring myself to back him based on what I've seen the past year or so.

Handicap it may be, but I can't help but feel he's regressing whilst some of the others are improving and that's what is putting me off. I don't think 158 is too bad for UTPT considering he won at the Festival off 148 and has won again since. And also when you consider he was rated as high as 154 over Hurdles yet seems to have improved for fences.

Anyway, best of luck. I've backed Vyta du Roc for a small stake in the hope the rain would come, which looks f*cked now and my only other bet is Native River.
Report sintonian November 23, 2016 9:48 PM GMT
yep best of luck, it's a good race to have a bet in.
Report Roselier November 24, 2016 8:46 AM GMT
Bit of trivia and I don't know the answer but was wondering historically which horse was the highest rated chaser to have never won a Grade 1. 166 is a truly enormous OR for Smad Place (it was 169!).

Try as I might to find an angle on this race, it looks as though the bookies have got it about right. You just keep going back to the Grade 1 winning chasers. Grade 1 winning chasers coming in on marks below 160 and there are four of them, seem to be the way to go. Holywell is one of those at a big price but that's a massive leap of faith!
Report sixtwosix November 24, 2016 8:58 AM GMT
Drumacoo 21 , Local Show 45 , Bishops Road 90
Report barnesey November 24, 2016 11:11 AM GMT
Is there no drumacoo???
Report shockster November 24, 2016 11:11 AM GMT
Drumacoo not declared.
Report barnesey November 24, 2016 11:18 AM GMT
Oh was really nice to hear all the bullish comments from the trainer this week ramping the price down to around 20/1!!!
Report shockster November 24, 2016 11:33 AM GMT
Ben Pauling has had a trying few weeks with Barters Hill being ruled out for the season and now he has had to abandon Drumacoo's Hennessy Gold Cup bid.

While flood warnings remain in parts of the country, Newbury has missed the deluge which means seven-year-old will be staying at home.


"We thought he was a very exciting type for the race but we will have to save him for another day," said the Bourton-on-the-Water trainer.

"The ground has gone too quick. I spoke to Richard Osgood this morning (clerk of the course) and there's absolutely no rain forecast.

"He thinks it will be genuinely good to soft ground.

"After the knee injury he has had and being a fragile horse I am not prepared to risk him.

"I'm gutted for the yard as he was in such amazing form."

Drumacoo won by 38 lengths on his Huntingdon chasing debut last season, which promoted Cheltenham Festival talk.

However, he was only seen once more when a disappointing favourite in the Reynoldstown.

Pauling added that the vet is visiting Barters Hill today to decide on when he will have the operation for his tendon injury.
Report barnesey November 24, 2016 12:05 PM GMT
Thanks for that shock.......... ups and downs of antepost I suppose!!!
Vicente 25/1 with victor last bit of value left for me so have added him each way to
Blacklion 16/1 and 14/1 e/w
Vyta du roc 14/1 e/w
Native river 16/1, 12/1 and 8/1 e/w

Losers
Drumacoo and o'faolains boy Cry

Good luck all should be a cracker
Report Roselier November 24, 2016 12:05 PM GMT
Houblon top RPR in the race. Was quite surprised at that.
Report dunlaying November 24, 2016 12:40 PM GMT
If the ground is drying out Hadrians Approach would be very well treated. Coologue might run well at a big price.
Report dunlaying November 24, 2016 12:40 PM GMT
If the ground is drying out Hadrians Approach would be very well treated. Coologue might run well at a big price.
Report GI MAC November 24, 2016 6:33 PM GMT
The drying ground changes the complexion of this race quite a bit for me.... Can easily rule out the likes of HDO, Local Show etc, but more importantly it has enhanced the chances of the top 3 in the betting amongst others.
Report Giddy November 24, 2016 7:50 PM GMT
Agree with dunlaying re Hadrians Approach. If only you could rely on him to put in a reasonable round of jumping, you could see him running a big race
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 24, 2016 9:09 PM GMT
On sunday their was standing water, all gone now. I guess the longness of dry ground absorbs that.

I take back my earlier post, imo it will be good/good to soft to dead with dead in the ground.

Not rained in newbury since monday evening.
Report Roselier November 25, 2016 2:41 PM GMT
It's good ground by the looks of it. The two Kings Theatre horses will love this ground as will Triolo and Holywell. I might have a bite on all four at their big prices. What I have got to lose apart from money. I lost my respect and dignity a long time ago.
Report Meat Loaf November 25, 2016 3:22 PM GMT
Saphie de Rheu will win this by 10 lengths.
Report Facts November 25, 2016 3:54 PM GMT
This is the sensible forum. hth.
Report 1st time poster November 25, 2016 4:42 PM GMT
anyone wagering at fancy prices or bet to nothing etc skybet going 6 places
Report unclepuncle November 25, 2016 5:29 PM GMT
Have laid off my HDO and Smad Place bets and have backed SDR @ 10/1 and Native River @ 6/1, with a small bet on Trilob@ 50
Report unclepuncle November 25, 2016 5:30 PM GMT
^Triolo
Report Facts November 25, 2016 6:18 PM GMT
Have taken 6/1 BOG on Native River, to go with previous bet ( Vyta Du Roc 9/1)
Report Giddy November 25, 2016 8:40 PM GMT
Going with Blacklion in a race where i can fancy 6 of the runners. Consistent and always tries his best  and  a few quid win and place Hadrians Approach
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 25, 2016 9:03 PM GMT
I have been studying the race for hours if not days, every time i read it their is going to be a 8 way photo. The 2nd season novices seem to have higher ratings than most seasons, im usually on the side of 2nd season novices but this year its hard to make a case for them. To think Blaklion is rated higher than Burtons Point (who only lost one race in his novice season) makes me think the handicapper is trying to stop the 2nd season novice advantage.

Im a massive fan of Un Temps Pour Tout as i am always looking for horses that could contend a gold cup very soon, but his rating puts me off going all on him, off below 152 i would be a backer, still going to have a saver on him as he is one of the few who could improve and end up in a gold cup.

My shortlist consists of Smad Place, Un Temps Pour Tout, Holywell, Blaklion, Saphir Du Rheu & Triolo D'Alene.

So far i have backed Triolo D'Alene & Holywell. Hard to believe this is the first time Holywell has run at Newbury. Just think if it is his favourite track in the world Wink
Report lewisham ranger November 25, 2016 10:34 PM GMT
To think Blaklion is rated higher than Burtons Point (who only lost one race in his novice season) makes me think the handicapper is trying to stop the 2nd season novice advantage.

Sorry, I must have missed the part where Burton Port actually won the RSA.
Report Satrus_Froot November 26, 2016 5:10 AM GMT

Nov 23, 2016 -- 2:44PM, Can't Catch Me wrote:


When was the last time Saphir du Rheu ran a race that made you think you'd just seen the Hennessy winner


I'd say his last run myself, thought he shaped excellently for a reappearance effort.

I'm with Sintonian here. I don't think I've ever backed Saphir Du Rheu before but I do think he has a really strong chance off a good mark today. I don't think ground is all that much of an issue for him but as last years Hennessy was in soft conditions and that mark he had of 163 would have been ridiculously tough to carry in soft ground, I'm glad to see some good in the description this year.

He's clearly a horse with enough class to win a race like this. I've been a big critic of him in the past myself and I'll be the first to admit it's hard to argue against the notion that he's been a talking horse rather than an action horse thus far, but I am starting to get the impression that he'd been hyped up a bit too much and everyone expected too much at too young an age (Gold Cup/Big Bucks standard). His win at Aintree in the Mildmay was his best performance over fences - even if he didn't beat a lot that isn't so much the issue, he jumped so well that day and was in a fine rhythm and he's also beaten solid hurdlers like Reve De Sivola and Whisper as well as running second in a World Hurdle. Class isn't the issue.

He's not the fastest horse by any stretch, he looked outpaced at Ascot on the turn for home but he wasn't stopping at the line. We also know he can go the Hennessy gallop as he was bang there until 2 out last year. Personally think a galloping left handed track, the trip, the ground, the handicap mark and that he now has more experience over fences all stands him in good stead to take this race. It's crazy he's still only 7 as it feels like he's been around forever but then improvement is definitely still possible, although you do get the impression this season is do or die time for him. Time to step up but I'd be surprised if he never took at least one big handicap pot like this at some point in his career, be it here or in a good festival handicap.

He shouldn't be any bigger than Native River in my opinion.

Report sageform November 26, 2016 9:29 AM GMT
HDO non runner. I am on Native River and Saphir to win and Theatre Guide a place so far.
Report pipedreamer November 26, 2016 10:22 AM GMT
Holywell hasn't run at Newbury before because he's a Cheltenham horse.He likes stiff finishes.His latest runs at Aintree and Doncaster tend to suggest that he's not a galloper on a sharp course type.Yes he has run well at Aintree [similar to Newbury] in the past,but they were in smaller fields.
Report SOULDANCER November 26, 2016 10:22 AM GMT
VICENTE 20-1 e.w. looks the only value left, better handicapped compared to Blaklion, Native River on last years form. Goes well fresh and would like the ground to dry out a bit.
Report FELTFAIR November 26, 2016 11:24 AM GMT
Fun time again. Combination tricast and forecast,

Holywell,
Smad Place
Saphir Du Rheu
Coologue
Theatre Guide

All each way six places.
Report go-all-in November 26, 2016 11:44 AM GMT
Hadrians Approach stuck out to me at the prices / weights so going to have a little play on that, good luck all
Report ReaseHeath November 26, 2016 12:39 PM GMT
have backed Smad Place (11/1) and Blaklion (11/1) both each way, mainly because I feel they are amongst the most reliable and the double figure prices sucked me in.

It's very competitive though (as you'd expect) - 13 of 'em who I would n't be surprised if they won!

Would like to see Aubusson run a big race but can't bring myself to back him.
Report nocturnal November 26, 2016 12:48 PM GMT
Really competitive renewal.

Just the two at the prices.

Hadrians Approach......Stood out early entries,OR 139,the handicapper has given him a real chance,was hoping he would get the headgear back on,quirky type,could easily outrun his 40/1 tag.

Triolo D,alene.....Not many miles on the clock,previous winner off 3lb lower mark,the time he won in was very quick,suggesting when he is ready,he has some engine,ground has come right for him.

VDR and SDR both look well handicapped,can see the logic there.

Times yesterday suggest nothing like the good/soft predicted.

Should be a cracker

GL ALL
Report Millerracing67 November 26, 2016 1:30 PM GMT
Wide open: no strong views for me today, with about 6/7 on my win "short list"
Couple of small win interests on Vyta du Roc @ 9.8 & Henri Parry Morgan @ 13.0.
Gd luck lads
Report Steamship November 26, 2016 3:12 PM GMT
Nothing between a lot of them and I think Caroles Destrier is overpriced @40
Report sageform November 26, 2016 3:25 PM GMT
Got it right in the opening post! Just disappointed that Theatre Guide didn't quite manage to get placed.
Report gpz6316 November 26, 2016 3:34 PM GMT
good result for this speadsheet peep
Report nocturnal November 26, 2016 7:37 PM GMT
WP Winners.....Very game from the front.

Some very good shouts for the place money,well done to those players.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 26, 2016 8:41 PM GMT
I managed to get the forecast up for last and 2nd last, that takes some doing.

Just seen the winning time, amazing. I was thinking it was near good ground so that is why i was behind Triolo but his error put paid to that.

Well done any winners
Report Facts November 26, 2016 9:37 PM GMT
Best horse won - and won well. Great ride by RJ too.
Well done to backers of the winner, especially barnesey, securing double fig.prices.
Report unclepuncle November 26, 2016 11:47 PM GMT
Really good ride by Dickie. Can't see Native River being a Gold Cup horse, but he looks tailor made for the National in a year or two's time.
Report sageform November 27, 2016 9:55 AM GMT
His run in the 4 mile novice at Cheltenham was arguably his worst run so he may be better over a fast run 3 miles plus than over 4 miles plus although I know that the National is a law unto itself. The times run by Ultragold, Thistlecrack and NR suggest the going was perfect. A little on the soft side encourages horses to stretch out and can be quicker than good/firm
Report shockster December 6, 2016 11:46 AM GMT
THE HENNESSY IS NO MORE. THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES.

SPONSORSHIP OVER.
Report unclepuncle December 7, 2016 8:45 AM GMT
No actual reason given for Hennessey pulling out after all this time. You would have thought given the race is simply known as "The Hennessey' it would be the perfect advertsing / corporate marketing type thing for such a company. Same as when Whitbread stopped sponsoring the Gold Cup at Sandown.

What do these companies not like about the current state of horse racing that makes them want to put their sponsorship / marketing money elsewhere.

Surely the BHA etc need to ask these questions and address them?
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