Breeders CUP Official Thread

I like Seventh Heaven in the Filly and Mare Turf - I'm hoping 'More Rubbish' would not be on her - to show her run in the Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot over the weekend was not her doing; I also like Tepin in the BC Mile as I believe he just had an off-day last time.

California Chrome and Songbird do look exceptional bets - a double perhaps.

mr moore's hold up tactics wont suit around that track.........the guy has become a total disaster

So Mi Dar has been scratched from the Filly and Mare Turf; Seventh Heaven is 2nd 'fav' but yet to be confirmed by AOB is 5/1 from 10/1. Apparently, the ground at Santa Anita is lightning which is music to Seventh Heaven's ears.

The Filly & Mares is my fav race in the breeders cup - The Japanese horse Nuovo Record and South African mare Smart Call interest me at this moment in time.

I believe Nuovo Record is definitely going to be lining up - and i had an interest at 20/1 yesterday.

Smart Call - currently 14/1 - is the South African mare that was pulled out of the Sun Chariot States at Newmarket recently - there are reports that she will be going straight to the race but im not 100% sure she is booked up on the plane- i believe its touch and go if she makes it from what her

quote from owner today "Smart Call is sound and back in work. She missed about ten days work after the Sun Chariot so we obviously had to start slowly. We are still hoping to be ready to go to Santa Anita for the Breeders Cup, but will only make a final call next week after she has done some fast work. As much as we are desperate to be at the Breeders Cup and will do everything we can to help Smart Call prepare, she is our top priority and her health and well being comes first. The European horses fly to California on the 28th, so if she is on track, she will join them. The team will make a final call in the middle of next week and we are hoping to confirm a jockey by then too."

Gd to hear that Limato is having a crack @ the mile, big chance in my book, Tepin being the 1 he will have to beat.
Granted fast ground, he will give her plenty to think about.

limato did not stay over a mile at newbury..........he has bolted up in 6 furlong and 7 furlong races..........as far as i know the sprint is over 6.5 furlongs..........why would u run him in the mile?

Very diff mile over their, very sharp, norm run on very fast ground & a short home str, should suit a speed horse like Limato imo.
Newbury was his first race of the season & run on g/s ground, it's also a stiff str mile.

In an announcement posted on the Alec Laird Racing Facebook page on Monday, 24 October 2016, the connections of 2016 Met winner Smart Call confirmed the end of her Breeders’ Cup aspirations for 2016.

The statement read, “We regret to update that Smart Call will no longer be taking part in the Breeders’ Cup.  Unfortunately she has not had enough time to heal properly

A horse running in the BC Mile would need to stay at least a mile as the race is usually run at a breathtaking pace from the off; Limato has only been over this distance once ie in the Lockinge Stakes but only running on one pace in the final furlong when finishing 4th.

I think the BC Turf Sprint would be a more suitable option given Limato's stamina uncertainty and limitation however, connections fear Limato could extinguish his chance if he is 'slow' out of the stall in this 6.5f race. I'd stick with Tepin who beat Belardo, the conqueror of Limato in the Lockinge Stakes at Ascot over this distance; I hope to get at least 3/1.

found may be taking on two record breaking dirt horses - c chrome & arrogate - in the classic............what a farce........did they learn nothing from g washington, oratorio, galileo, gleneagles and many many more..........if they are keeping the turf for h reel, fair enough but send found to japan or hong kong...........this aint rocket science

Nuovo Record JPN - being steadily shortened in the betting - ladcrookes only 10s now. Billy mills 12s

Now that Seventh Heaven has been declared for this - Pretty Perfect is 1st reserve. I wonder if I'll get a run for my money this time; a bonus if she wins, even with 'Moore' (rubbish) on board - her price is now 7/2. I might do a double with Tepin, at 14/1.

I don't think Seventh Heaven is a 10f filly myself?
She looked a real stayer to me at York back in Aug.
This will be a sharp 10f.

I do agree 10f could be a bit sharp for Seventh Heaven as she needed every inch of the 12f in the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks to show her best but the fast ground will suit her very well. However, with the usual fast pace anticipated straight after the off a runner will need to stay more than 10f to win it; I'm more concerned about the early position Seventh Heaven will need to be able to deliver a 'winnable' challenge. With Alice Springs probably engaged elsewhere Seventh Heaven has several pounds in hand over the next best runners; my two for this race will be Seventh Heaven and Queen's Trust, with 1st reserve, Pretty Perfect, taking them along.

The world's highest rated racehorse, A Shin Hikari (I believe), is running in the Tenno Sho at 06:40 sunday morning, and he is 3/1 2nd 'fav'.

I don't know where the repeated references to "breathtaking pace" and "usual fast pace" come from, certainly not any evidence. These races are turf races and no more likely to be run fast early than ones from the past, which certainly haven't always been quick early.

If Lady Eli is running & at her best, I would expect her to have to much pace for Seventh over a sharp 10f.
The shortish running would be against her as well imo., but it's all about opinions, best of luck with your bets.

Erupt - winner of the Canadian International - taken out of the Breeders Cup Turf - was an 8/1 shot.

turf sprint has cut up badly and is 6.5 furlongs..........how mr candy has decided to go for the mile is beyond me.
likewise frosted going for classic, instead of dirt mile.

Millerracing67,

I just hope Moore stays close to Pretty Perfect (1st Reserve/will get a run with Alice Springs probably heading to the Turf Mile instead) soon after the off and not lay at the back and/or come up the rail to challenge late.

bdj

I wholly agree. Apparently, Mr Candy was reported to have said Limato might have a 'dozy' moment in the stalls something Limato was prone to, if so, curtains, hence the Turf Mile instead. And that means a better price for the backers of Tepin.

tepin's trainer may have left a little to work on in past few mths, hence the below par runs the last two...........alice springs three g1 wins have come against fillies...........if she ran in the queen anne or queen eliz, she would have been unplaced i reckon so tepin should take care of her.........limato might not stay so 11/4 tepin is looking very large

Tepin, on a line with Belardo and Ervedya had nothing to fear from Limato (Lockinge) and Alice Springs (Sun Chariot) respectively; I think the price of Tepin would be closer to 6/4 if he had not fluffed his lines last time.

All things being equal, the Turf Sprint is a 'walk-in-the-park' for Limato compare to the Turf Mile; I think Limato would 'walk' all over Washington DC (current 'fav') 99x out of a 100.

impossible 123, if you have to post your clueless opinions on here, please leave out the apostrophes, which make them even more irritating.

shaw,

With due respect, if you do not like it you could always 'take a hike' - I'd not be offended and good-bye!!!!!!!

another strange won is last years dirt sprint winner running in the dirt mile.........runhappy...........he ran a few weeks ago over a mile, went way too fast and collapsed in the final 2 furlongs........some trainers dont seem to have a clue sometimes...............found running in the classic...........what the heck are they doing...........she should be running in japan in three weeks time.........would probably win the japan cup..........

Found now running in the turf not the classic. 'The boys' must have had a nice little touch on her.

they have been reading my posts

Yep, tasty if one was privileged to get a bit of Found at 8/1, but the Classic (Turf) and over 12f is a more realistic race for her than the Classic (Dirt) over 10f against California Chrome and Arrogate.

I see the draws have been made for the Filly and Mare and Turf Mile races; the prices for Tepin and Limato in the latter have eased but Seventh Heaven in the former has contracted.

I've done my dough on the Japanese horse Nuovo Record - i cant believe that ive just seen that she wasn't even in the draw.

Not one single report that there was a problem  over the last 3 days since she was being exercised on the track on Sunday.

I didn't bet big .....but the fact that there is not one snippet of news anywhere is seriously annoying.

they made a mistake - she is running - widest draw of all though - bizzare as she was not on the screen in their official tweet

interesting thread in many ways...looking forward to the meeting

Alice Springs has drawn 2, Tepin 8 and Limato 10 in the Mile Turf - not good for the last two mentioned hence their prices easing.

Limato doesn't like being too crowded so he was never going to race handily toward the inside anyway.
He will be kept widish and try to sweep past the whole field in the straight - hopefully he will drift to a nice price on the PMU.

For the info of Found supporters.

I have laid Found and backed against her in the Classic Turf; the last time I did that she won the 'Arc'.

I hear Paddy Power are already paying out on her after receiving that info I123.

Over the years I've become less and less interested in this meeting, mainly because it's usually just an afterthought for most European yards. This year's renewal looks no exception with not one runner really primed for the race but I don't know enough about the American runners to take advantage. This year I'll probably just catch a few races on my phone down the pub but good luck to those who put in the effort and are betting seriously on the meeting.

I'm the first to admit I'm not very good when it comes to winners on flat meetings, but can somebody tell me why Songbird is not odds on in the Distaff on Friday night?  What am I missing?

At 2/1 Found will be a 'lay' for me but I like Dortmund in the Dirt Mile a lot.

i think she should be 13/8 shockster against these 2 fillies...pure hype horse, yes she is good but really has been mopping up against mediocre types this will be much tougher yes she can win but she has had a long campaign... i'm having a decent bet against her myself

Fair enough Harry, like I say, flat's not my game.  Just saw the string of 1's and CD wins.  Glad I only had a few quid on.  Good luck.

i'm certainly not saying she won't win she has been winning hard on the snaff in all her races but mostly on easy uncontested leads that isn't to say she won't get that here but there are plenty who will harass her and personally i don't think she has beaten much the other 2 fillies are classy and she won't be winning hard on the snaff here hence the price but my tissue is a mile out from the prices we are getting here personally but i may just be wrong about her and she maybe just be exceptional and in which case i will be wrong...anyway good luck with your wager

No worries Harry, I respect your opinion.  I'll have a few plays for fun on Saturday as I actually like this meeting. It's about the only flat meeting, maybe Kentucky Derby I'd like to attend.  One day maybe.

yes was hoping to go this year myself but haven't been able to make it...maybe next year i also love the meeting...difficult this year but the classic is brewing up to be the best classic class wise i can remember...tight betting heat, i am gagging to pull the trigger in the mile on one at a price but am restraining till after this distaff and will be playing just praying i can get this songbird, no offence!!!!

Absolutely non taken.  It won't make or break me that bet.

Shockster, I'm sure Songbird would be odds-on if she hadn't have been given the dreaded one stall.

Most US racing officianados consider being drawn 1 as the coffin box draw--mainly because if your horse doesn't trap when the gate opens, the odds are the horse will get stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses and is left disadvantaged for the remainder of the race.

That said, I don't think this mishap will befall Songbird, who traps like a dream and has won almost every race she has ever contested by going wire to wire.

So sleep easy my friend. In fact if I was you, I would start spending your winnings as soon as the shops open tomorrow morning.

fwiw I'm against Songbird will be doing the Stellar Wind/Beholder exacta and probably chuck in a couple for the trifecta including Unbridled forever.

However, my main BC bet is Ironicus in the turf mile. Think the race will set up nicely for him in that they will go hard and he will be finishing. Hopefully wont be out of the frame

i also like ironicus in the mile sewter, needs to step up on all known form but his trainer will have him spot on for this and we are getting the right price to play him..limato for me should not be underestimated here though imo

Suedois is a non-runner according to a lady jockey connected to the yard in an interview on ATR.

Suedois (red) has suffered a stress fracture

The French import, a Group Three winner in his homeland, has yet to run a bad race this season and was quietly fancied by some to go close on Saturday.

His best effort came at Newmarket when chasing home Limato in the July Cup, while he has also been placed in Haydock's Sprint Cup, the Duke of York and the Prix de la Foret last time out.

However, he will not get the chance to test himself again after hurting a foot in routine exercise.

O'Meara tweeted: "Unfortunately #Suedois will not run on Saturday. He has a stress fracture in his near fore foot. Will be back for next year."

Lord Nelson also out of the dirt sprint

I like this meeting but there are no obvious stand outs for me this time. The one race I will be dabbling in is the Turf Mile. I'm not yet convinced  Limato is a miler and that Tepin isn't just a little over rated. That leaves Alice Springs and Spectre the three year old fillies. Spectre has pretty solid Gr1 form in France over the trip and will be my bet with Alice Springs as a saver. Nothing big. Good luck all.

dont fancy lancaster bomber and intelligence cross but really fancy hydreana

Impressed with Good Samaritan last time-unoriginal and will probably be fav but think it will win

Can't see past Dortmund tonight either

One I am very interested in tomorrow is Green Mask in the Turf sprint-at first it was only a reserve but I think it runs now due to 2 scratchings.
20/1 each way with Hills was very big. I'm also going to do it in exactas/trifectas with Celestine, A Lot and Obviously

Day 1 poor from Aiden's horses bah the Bomber. Not sure about Seventh Heaven and Washington now.

Not my favourite betting meeting but will venture a little each way on Karar in the turf sprint and Alice Springs in the Turf Mile.

well what a duel that was last night, i didn't think we would get her but she nailed her right on the jam stick songbird certainly got my respect, she was really game in defeat...once again though she got it easy on the lead running 47 for the half is very easy fractions and was unpestered on the lead again, so no excuses for her... you can't beat 2 champions hooking up in any horse race, that really was a real treat for racing fans

anyway we move on and tonight we are treated to arguably one of the best classics in memory imo... people think chrome is a certainty and it is hard to argue with them but the price is tight and although i think he should win we are getting no sweets at the 10/11 running against 2 horses who between them can certainly serve it up to the good horse...arrogate put in a truly astounding performance on ratings in the travers and from a time perspective put in one of the best performances of all time on his 5th start...

for me he could of been a bounce horse but he has been given time by baffert... can he back the massive run up i'm not sure, he has certainly been given every chance to do so though...chrome it has always been said likes to race on the outside of rivals so will be interesting to see how he is ridden with smith a brilliant race rider likely to try and go to the lead with arrogate so a duel may occur which will be interesting to see how chrome reacts to rival on his outside but i'm not sure arrogate has the early speed of chrome so will be interesting to see...

chrome himself has just been awesome, he got it very easy on the lead when he beat beholder and he continues to improve and really has become an exceptional dirt horse

frosted really should get a perfect trip here and this race may well set up for a closer, not saying he is deep closer but he should be able to at least stalk the pace...he himself put up an exceptional time performance in the metropoltian handicap over a mile and some will argue he is best at a mile, not sure of that myself and he was turned over at odds on last time when given a poor ride from the rider, siting off of the pace run at a slow gallop was a nonsense ride and completely unnecessary considering how the horse is normally ridden, that run came off the back of 4 week break and he seems better off of a longer break which he gets here so there really isn't any reason why he shouldn't go well but just not sure he is up to beating the 2 good top notchers, it has to be remembered he is not keen on the whip and i really do see this being a war so that is a negative for me

like i said before this could be set up for a closer so i do see some of the rags getting a slice of the cake...shaman ghost continues to go the right way and is a deep closer however he isn't very quick so see him being to far out of it to get involved...

hoppertunity is the closer i like and can see him plugging into a place especially if frosted tries to go with the 2 good horses

anyway pace is going to be key here and if they run the first quarter in under 22 this could end up a war and it will be interesting to see if arrogate has the early pace to get on chromes outside and harass him but i don't think he has, and if he doesn't i do see chrome making all

anyway not a big betting race for me but looking forward to the race, i may just do a trifecta and try and get arrogate and frosted out but it is a long shot and i do see the race lying between the 3, it'll just be interesting to see how the race develops early and this will be the key...if arrogate can back up his travers run and get on chromes outside he should go close but i have my doubts but baffert is a master trainer and the horse is still entitled to improve further with this being his 6th career lifetime start

enjoy

top work hc

Don't think there was a lot wrong with Flintshire and Tepin last time out....former got bogged down on very soft ground off with the winner stealing the race off a slow pace. Flintshire was never going to get there on that going and the jockey took it incredibly easily on him.

Tepin only lost last time because Leperoux made a poor choice deciding to stay with Celestine and to not reel in Photo Calls. Took a pull right when Kent Desermoux decided to kick on again. I think he thought he was on the best horse and Photo Call would come back to them but the latter has won over 10furlongs and hung on nicely.

Might give both races a miss...if Tepin drifts like Beholder did last night then I'll back her. Her current price is tasty enought but I suspect people might look to take her on tonight. Don't think she's regressing or over the top...just unlucky last time. She could easily slam this lot. 

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Other than that I'm having a bet on Melantonin win and 4places in the Classic.

Trained by an absolute master who has landed a couple of 40-1 upsets at the Breeders Cup in recent times and also claimed the scalps of Cigar and Louis Quatorze when Alphabet Soup won the Classic at 19/1. 

Horse is the only CD winner in the field, thrives at Santa Anita and has landed both the Santa Anita Handicap and the old Hollywood Gold Cup this season.

He's got plenty of heart and doesn't back down from a fight...loves a good ol' re rally.

Sure he hasn't taken on the very best like Chrome as yet but he's coming into the race in fine form and deserves to be in this line up.

Not worried about the layoff because he's been put through some very demanding gallops to get him spot on today...plus he always run well when fresh.

Chrome, Frosted and Arrogate are all good horses...but if there's going to be an upset I'll be backing Melatonin and David Hofmans to do it.

I think it's one of those that if he wins you kick yourself for not having a few quid on him because the clues were all there.

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Surely Limato will be bigger on the US tote?
100/30 best with our books, that's a bit short imo, will want 5s to be playing for ££.

the turf track here is a joke..........watching the races on friday it was a total lottery trying to get a run as they just keep turning. its good that santa anita produces fast ground in november but keenland is a far superior track.

Santa Anita is pretty similar to the Wimbledon Greyhound track eg a short run to the sharp 1st left bend. If one's runner is not positioned well heading towards this bend it is almost curtain as the connections of Stellar Wind experienced last night.

Seventh Heaven (10f instead of 12f) and Found (firm/fast ground) are friendless in the betting, and so is Tepin but I think the 4/1 for Tepin now could signify value if one disregards her last run as a one-off or pilot error; it certainly is better value than Limato who is into unknown territory, and a sharp round track.

quite a lot against limato here, don't see why myself, he's the best horse running in this race, will love the ground and i think will get the mile and not mind the track, this isn't newbury on slow ground, anyway i wouldn't be knocking his chances and will be surprised if he can't get at least get in the places

limato should be running in the 6.5 furlongs sprint..........he would bolt in.........they r not g1 horses........instead he is running over a trip he prob wont stay against tepin..........this is like my username..........brain dead connections

or brain dead comments, it just depends how you view it

I agree with brain dead Limato might well win the Mile-personally I like Ironicus but the sprint is a penalty kick by comparison to the mile

the mile is full of group 1 horses whereas I dont think there is even one in the sprint

sewter the horse has won a july cup and is a gelding so why not have a shot at the mile? it gives them options for the future...he was beaten at newbury on ground he doesn't like...the turf sprint is not a prestigious race so why not have a shot at the prize

royal academy won this race after winning the july cup

i just have a saver on him as i am on ironicus...anyway we will find out later

I hope you are right Harry.

I am very sweet on Ironicus but the Turf course looks brutal if you don't/can't get a run and he has to come late

One of my other choices tonight will also need luck in running, Green Mask in the sprint.

brutal betting heat this sprint...the gatlin gun approach seems the only option

made up 8 lengths in the final furlong to finish 5th

that's a brutal race and a horrible track, not many handle it that is for sure

if you are drawn low u have no chance

Tepin IR:

1.20    £98        £916       
1.21    £16        £1,390       
1.22            £32       
1.24            £42       
1.25            £444       
1.26            £306       
1.27            £3,201

Ironicus finished so fast in 4th must have made up 6 lengths in the final furlong

harry callaghan..........limato had every chance..........in a great position............as i said HE WOULD NOT STAY............HES A SPRINTER...............BRAIN DEAD CONNECTIONS.

Is it proven Limato does not stay a strongly run mile? I'd a 'lay' in-running at 'evens' on Tepin but was not accepted - I wonder why?

Nov 5, 2016 -- 6:58PM, impossible123 wrote:

Is it proven Limato does not stay a strongly run mile? I'd a 'lay' in-running at 'evens' on Tepin but was not accepted - I wonder why?

Weird it wasn't matched as £3k at 1.27 was busted.

Indeed, the bet was unmatched. This has happened before and I do not think Betfair 'in-running' figures are accurate.

well quite surprised chrome got beat setting those fractions, they really did dawdle to the half mile, so extra credit for arrogate to mow him down in the straight...

espinoza did not give chrome a good ride he thought he would win on the snaff and the other horse is quite exceptional to be able to get to him in my book but espinoza continually looked round instead of getting on with the job in hand, i'd be disappointed if i'd taken the odds so unlucky if you played...

arrogate really is a deep closing type with tactical speed so has everything you could wish for in a dirt horse and he backed up his travers performance under a great ride from smith who got him rolling plenty early enough and the move to the rail then outside into the straight was a lovely bit of riding, anyway 2 exceptional horses and really no real excuses as chrome got it easy on the lead and for arrogate to make up that ground against chrome was a cracking performance

just on ironicus i think maybe he is just a one run closer now and probably just wants further distance, it is always going to be difficult to bet him in the future as he really hasn't got the tactical speed at a mile...it was a perfect set up for him here with the fractions that were set but he struggled to hold his position going into the far turn then just ran on past beaten horses, there was no excuses in my book, he just isn't very quick or the other thing to consider is just how good is he, they will surely see what there options are up in trip

limato sat quite handy and considering the pace hung in there and maybe the distance and a long season were his undoing...i'm still not totally convinced it was just the distance, as i think he ran below his best here, so although he is probably a better 6/7 furlong horse i'd like to see him have one more stab on fast going and earlier in the season but they probably won't now...i think it is very difficult to train a horse to run fast then ask him to rate and stretch out, anyway we might never know now and the form book says he is better at sprinting and that is what he has mostly been asked to do...anyway fair play to them for having a stab and not going to that horrible race down the epsom downs type track

Harry, having watched previous Ironicus races I thought the draw was good in that he could stay 2/3 wide and get a clear run in the straight at the fast pace. However, his jockey allowed another horse to come upsides and prevent a clean run in the straight.
The jockey had to pull back slightly and move right to get out and his chance had gone. The way he finished just made it very frustrating. His connections do have options as the 10 furlong run against Flintshire showed that he gets that trip-on that occasion the jock went up the rail and got badly hampered before again flying at the finish.

As for Limato it was crazy to run an unproven stayer in the mile against a host of group 1 winners.
The mile was a much better race than the Turf Sprint, a race that was chock full of average group 2/3 horses. He could have won the sprint this year and come back for next year's mile. After all he is a gelding and wouldn't be off to stud.

In my opinion Limato clearly did not stay the a truly run mile race like the Turf Mile yesterday; he had a good position from the off, did not pull at any time of the race but was past by a couple of horses and clearly ran out of puff at the business end. I'd be very surprised if connections attempt another 8f race next season.

I felt sorry for the bloke who had a 'free' $10k ticket on California Chrome (CC). I think CC would have won if his jockey had been more professional instead of being showboating.

Apart from opposing Found big time the BC had not been as profitable as it could have been; I lost on three photos ie Songbird, Lady Eli, Tepin and California Chrome. Nevertheless, it was an extremely good 1st experience of a top level American race festival.

After watching the video maybe Limato doesn't stay a mile, but he was being pushed along and was never going to win even at 6f, or at 7f that he's already prove he stays. I agree with Candy that it came at the end of a hard season, which is why personally I wouldn't have backed him in the sprint either.