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I like Seventh Heaven in the Filly and Mare Turf - I'm hoping 'More Rubbish' would not be on her - to show her run in the Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot over the weekend was not her doing; I also like Tepin in the BC Mile as I believe he just had an off-day last time.
California Chrome and Songbird do look exceptional bets - a double perhaps. |
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mr moore's hold up tactics wont suit around that track.........the guy has become a total disaster
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So Mi Dar has been scratched from the Filly and Mare Turf; Seventh Heaven is 2nd 'fav' but yet to be confirmed by AOB is 5/1 from 10/1. Apparently, the ground at Santa Anita is lightning which is music to Seventh Heaven's ears.
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The Filly & Mares is my fav race in the breeders cup - The Japanese horse Nuovo Record and South African mare Smart Call interest me at this moment in time.
I believe Nuovo Record is definitely going to be lining up - and i had an interest at 20/1 yesterday. Smart Call - currently 14/1 - is the South African mare that was pulled out of the Sun Chariot States at Newmarket recently - there are reports that she will be going straight to the race but im not 100% sure she is booked up on the plane- i believe its touch and go if she makes it from what her quote from owner today "Smart Call is sound and back in work. She missed about ten days work after the Sun Chariot so we obviously had to start slowly. We are still hoping to be ready to go to Santa Anita for the Breeders Cup, but will only make a final call next week after she has done some fast work. As much as we are desperate to be at the Breeders Cup and will do everything we can to help Smart Call prepare, she is our top priority and her health and well being comes first. The European horses fly to California on the 28th, so if she is on track, she will join them. The team will make a final call in the middle of next week and we are hoping to confirm a jockey by then too." |
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Gd to hear that Limato is having a crack @ the mile, big chance in my book, Tepin being the 1 he will have to beat.
Granted fast ground, he will give her plenty to think about. |
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limato did not stay over a mile at newbury..........he has bolted up in 6 furlong and 7 furlong races..........as far as i know the sprint is over 6.5 furlongs..........why would u run him in the mile?
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Very diff mile over their, very sharp, norm run on very fast ground & a short home str, should suit a speed horse like Limato imo.
Newbury was his first race of the season & run on g/s ground, it's also a stiff str mile. |
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In an announcement posted on the Alec Laird Racing Facebook page on Monday, 24 October 2016, the connections of 2016 Met winner Smart Call confirmed the end of her Breeders’ Cup aspirations for 2016.
The statement read, “We regret to update that Smart Call will no longer be taking part in the Breeders’ Cup. Unfortunately she has not had enough time to heal properly |
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A horse running in the BC Mile would need to stay at least a mile as the race is usually run at a breathtaking pace from the off; Limato has only been over this distance once ie in the Lockinge Stakes but only running on one pace in the final furlong when finishing 4th.
I think the BC Turf Sprint would be a more suitable option given Limato's stamina uncertainty and limitation however, connections fear Limato could extinguish his chance if he is 'slow' out of the stall in this 6.5f race. I'd stick with Tepin who beat Belardo, the conqueror of Limato in the Lockinge Stakes at Ascot over this distance; I hope to get at least 3/1. |
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found may be taking on two record breaking dirt horses - c chrome & arrogate - in the classic............what a farce........did they learn nothing from g washington, oratorio, galileo, gleneagles and many many more..........if they are keeping the turf for h reel, fair enough but send found to japan or hong kong...........this aint rocket science
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Nuovo Record JPN - being steadily shortened in the betting - ladcrookes only 10s now. Billy mills 12s
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Now that Seventh Heaven has been declared for this - Pretty Perfect is 1st reserve. I wonder if I'll get a run for my money this time; a bonus if she wins, even with 'Moore' (rubbish) on board - her price is now 7/2. I might do a double with Tepin, at 14/1.
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I don't think Seventh Heaven is a 10f filly myself?
She looked a real stayer to me at York back in Aug. This will be a sharp 10f. |
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I do agree 10f could be a bit sharp for Seventh Heaven as she needed every inch of the 12f in the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks to show her best but the fast ground will suit her very well. However, with the usual fast pace anticipated straight after the off a runner will need to stay more than 10f to win it; I'm more concerned about the early position Seventh Heaven will need to be able to deliver a 'winnable' challenge. With Alice Springs probably engaged elsewhere Seventh Heaven has several pounds in hand over the next best runners; my two for this race will be Seventh Heaven and Queen's Trust, with 1st reserve, Pretty Perfect, taking them along.
The world's highest rated racehorse, A Shin Hikari (I believe), is running in the Tenno Sho at 06:40 sunday morning, and he is 3/1 2nd 'fav'. |
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I don't know where the repeated references to "breathtaking pace" and "usual fast pace" come from, certainly not any evidence. These races are turf races and no more likely to be run fast early than ones from the past, which certainly haven't always been quick early.
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If Lady Eli is running & at her best, I would expect her to have to much pace for Seventh over a sharp 10f.
The shortish running would be against her as well imo., but it's all about opinions, best of luck with your bets. |
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Erupt - winner of the Canadian International - taken out of the Breeders Cup Turf - was an 8/1 shot.
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turf sprint has cut up badly and is 6.5 furlongs..........how mr candy has decided to go for the mile is beyond me.
likewise frosted going for classic, instead of dirt mile. |
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Millerracing67,
I just hope Moore stays close to Pretty Perfect (1st Reserve/will get a run with Alice Springs probably heading to the Turf Mile instead) soon after the off and not lay at the back and/or come up the rail to challenge late. bdj I wholly agree. Apparently, Mr Candy was reported to have said Limato might have a 'dozy' moment in the stalls something Limato was prone to, if so, curtains, hence the Turf Mile instead. And that means a better price for the backers of Tepin. |
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tepin's trainer may have left a little to work on in past few mths, hence the below par runs the last two...........alice springs three g1 wins have come against fillies...........if she ran in the queen anne or queen eliz, she would have been unplaced i reckon so tepin should take care of her.........limato might not stay so 11/4 tepin is looking very large
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Tepin, on a line with Belardo and Ervedya had nothing to fear from Limato (Lockinge) and Alice Springs (Sun Chariot) respectively; I think the price of Tepin would be closer to 6/4 if he had not fluffed his lines last time.
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All things being equal, the Turf Sprint is a 'walk-in-the-park' for Limato compare to the Turf Mile; I think Limato would 'walk' all over Washington DC (current 'fav') 99x out of a 100.
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impossible 123, if you have to post your clueless opinions on here, please leave out the apostrophes, which make them even more irritating.
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shaw,
With due respect, if you do not like it you could always 'take a hike' - I'd not be offended and good-bye!!!!!!! |
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another strange won is last years dirt sprint winner running in the dirt mile.........runhappy...........he ran a few weeks ago over a mile, went way too fast and collapsed in the final 2 furlongs........some trainers dont seem to have a clue sometimes...............found running in the classic...........what the heck are they doing...........she should be running in japan in three weeks time.........would probably win the japan cup..........
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Found now running in the turf not the classic. 'The boys' must have had a nice little touch on her.
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they have been reading my posts
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Yep, tasty if one was privileged to get a bit of Found at 8/1, but the Classic (Turf) and over 12f is a more realistic race for her than the Classic (Dirt) over 10f against California Chrome and Arrogate.
I see the draws have been made for the Filly and Mare and Turf Mile races; the prices for Tepin and Limato in the latter have eased but Seventh Heaven in the former has contracted. |
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I've done my dough on the Japanese horse Nuovo Record - i cant believe that ive just seen that she wasn't even in the draw.
Not one single report that there was a problem over the last 3 days since she was being exercised on the track on Sunday. I didn't bet big .....but the fact that there is not one snippet of news anywhere is seriously annoying. |
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they made a mistake - she is running - widest draw of all though - bizzare as she was not on the screen in their official tweet
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interesting thread in many ways...looking forward to the meeting
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Alice Springs has drawn 2, Tepin 8 and Limato 10 in the Mile Turf - not good for the last two mentioned hence their prices easing.
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Limato doesn't like being too crowded so he was never going to race handily toward the inside anyway.
He will be kept widish and try to sweep past the whole field in the straight - hopefully he will drift to a nice price on the PMU. |
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For the info of Found supporters.
I have laid Found and backed against her in the Classic Turf; the last time I did that she won the 'Arc'. |
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I hear Paddy Power are already paying out on her after receiving that info I123.
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Over the years I've become less and less interested in this meeting, mainly because it's usually just an afterthought for most European yards. This year's renewal looks no exception with not one runner really primed for the race but I don't know enough about the American runners to take advantage. This year I'll probably just catch a few races on my phone down the pub but good luck to those who put in the effort and are betting seriously on the meeting.
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I'm the first to admit I'm not very good when it comes to winners on flat meetings, but can somebody tell me why Songbird is not odds on in the Distaff on Friday night? What am I missing?
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At 2/1 Found will be a 'lay' for me but I like Dortmund in the Dirt Mile a lot.
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i think she should be 13/8 shockster against these 2 fillies...pure hype horse, yes she is good but really has been mopping up against mediocre types this will be much tougher yes she can win but she has had a long campaign... i'm having a decent bet against her myself
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