Balmoral Hcap - Ascot Saturday.

Out of curiosity, what price do you think he'll go to once we know he's running, we know his jockey, we know who else is running, we know the draw and we know the going?


This is looking like a very competitive handicap.

No idea. But 8/1 seems fair. If he runs , my assumption he'll be a lower  price at the off.
It's always a judgement call isn't it ! ?

Looks like a minefield to me at this stage!

The first thing to catch my eye perusing the entries is that Ryan Moore is already jocked up on GM Hopkins. Forefeited his chance in the Cambridgeshire by rearing up in the stalls and has been dropped a couple of lbs. Course form of 1210 (would have done better with a clearer run in the Hunt Cup), far from disgraced in the Lockinge and 2-6 in handicaps with 21 or more runners.

I assume Frankie is earmarked for the Al Shaqab runner or Castle Harbour but Gosden also has Remarkable in the entries for Cheveley Park Stud for whom Moore is usually preferred jockey if available.

But I'm with PJay, so much can change between Monday and Saturday morning e.g. Moore might jump ship,I assume the field limit here is 28 as in the Hunt Cup so bound to be at least 5 places, and maybe even 6 in places available on Sat.

Firmament does look one of the more solid ones at the top of the market - Morando has never been in a race like this before, Castle Harbour has been off for ages, Yuften has had more trainers than Usain Bolt - you'd have to respect Very Talented whose form was franked by Aclaim at Newmarket last week.

This will be tough enough to solve once the final decs are through though, let alone now.

Oct 10, 2016 -- 8:07PM, Facts wrote:

No idea. But 8/1 seems fair. If he runs , my assumption he'll be a lower  price at the off. It's always a judgement call isn't it ! ?

He'll likely be lower, but it's a different race then. You can't just hope to beat the race day price, that's not enough. 8/1 now DOES NOT equal 8/1 on race day. Things can go wrong as we so often see on here when the regular early birds so often lose money without a run. At other times it's the draw. Other times the ground.

If we said 8/1 now or 6/1 on the day with everything in place a hell of a lot of people would choose the 6/1.

Anyway apologies for the ramble and best of luck with it. It looks a hell of a race and I do hope something goes very short to boost the value elsewhere.

Reaseheath
Think the max field for this 20.
Moore was 2/2 on  hopkins before he reared lto.... Think he is a cracking e/w bet @ 20s.....in race where the weight spread of the field won't be too much imho.

Actually yeah, they did reduce the field size last year didn't they!? I was forgetting that it wasn't a larger field size.

Trev, I'm on GM Hopkins as well, but only at the 16's, as only firm left doing 20's now is Betstar, and I don't know much about them, good luck with him.

Also went for Chil The Kite ew 33's

Before this morning i would have been confident this race was going to be a 10/1 the field race by Saturday morning (courtesy of usually hills and 365) and by time course bookies price it up 20 mins before the off the jolly will be around 7s or 8s. But looking at the market this morning, Yuften has been smashed up in the last hour or two and is already 7s in most places so have taken the 8s that are left.

I took 14s Gm hopkins and 16s Mutarakez yesterday

I will wait for the 5 places on any other bets i may place on the race.

Are you saying you've backed Yuften, because Oddschecker are blue across the board, and therefore ' there must be something in it ' ?

Yuften was tipped by Hugh Taylor, hence the price change. Glad of that, will hopefully keep the other prices interesting.

So you've backed it on the say so of a ' Tipster' !

To STS

I too 14s on AFJAAN and Bronze Angel 33s.

Frankie booked to ride him - although im not a big fan of the jockey in big field handicaps this season... think the horse is on a decent mark and am expecting him to run well.

On a side note very unlikely VERY TALENTED will get into the race... Jockey said he would have won the cambridgeshire if drawn on the other side.

A big shame that!

Hate it when they cut the width of the track in half, but for the sake of having a bet I'll plump for Afjaan @ 10/1 who should relish the extra furlong.

Oct 13, 2016 -- 1:08PM, unclepuncle wrote:

Hate it when they cut the width of the track in half, but for the sake of having a bet I'll plump for Afjaan @ 10/1 who should relish the extra furlong.

Yeah it's an awful shame. The first year they held this is was a proper big field handicap. It looks like they've ended/changed the qualifying process now too.

Very Talented not declared. Wonder why?. Would have got in so either they have bigger plans or feel the other Godolphin entry has a better chance.
Glad I didnt go in antepost.

Another tricky Ascot handicap. Nailed the last one and am going in e/w on Donncha at 16's.

He wouldn't have made it in betilyerded. 3yos needed to be OR102.

Cracking betting heat to finish what is an excellent card.
Been waiting for Third Time Lucky to get some ease in the ground for one of these big hcaps, he's run well the last twice on ground quicker than he wants, he looks sure to go well 2moro, as long as not undone by the draw??
He would be near the top of my short list for the race.

Bookmakers have six horses vying for favouritism at odds raging from 7/1 to 8/1
Ridiculous !!!

Bookmakers shoring up the market, they like doing that, even more so of late, with being asked to give more cash back into the game.
Was hoping the g/s part would still be in the going report 2day for my ew play, now officially Gd ground.
I'am hoping it rides a touch on the easy side, that will help 3TL

Have had a punt on Chil the Kite, he has nearly a stone turn around with Gm Hopkins from last years RHC and hope he comes back to form here off 102. GLA.

Desparately difficult but will back Zhui Feng each way (5 places)

yep, stuck with GM Hopkins 11/1 ew and also Afjaan 9/1 ew

Added a little each way on Remarkable.

Well done Yuften winners. 12/1 was a surprising price ! Firmament done no favours ( again) and placed ( yet again).
I think the decision to narrow the track width, added to the carnage in the closing stages. But definitely a low number draw was a significant benefit.

Messy race. Would have been interesting had the favourite and Donncha had a run and I think Yuften backers are very fortunate that they didn't.

Plenty of hard luck stories, though Afjaan is definitely in the notebook for something like the Lincoln or Hunt Cup next year.

Good Call Facts, could  not be bothered to go through the form so i put it in my placepot and collected,would probably have won with a bit more luck.

I was really annoyed with the run Afjaan was given tbh - he was ridden quite poorly by Frankie.. considering how he tried to gather pace... thought jockey made the run way too late... getting stuck in a bad position behind horses... and then thinking he could switch the on button and win it...

If I was connections I wouldn't be too happy at all....

It was a ' car crash ' of a race in the last furlong. At least 4 horses got stopped in their run.
Personally, I think the unlucky loser was the Fav. Will certainly be interested when it next appears in a Handicap.