Champions Sprint Ascot (15th)

But Limato could run, according to Henry Candy, if the ground suits - at the moment it is good/good to firm; Limato is best price 3/1 (Hil**) but as short as 7/4 with 'Paddies', and he is 5lbs better off with Quiet Reflection.

Indeed, Donjuan Triumphant is 3lbs better off with Quiet Reflection and he was 7/1 last time they met so 40/1 is massively overpriced. However, I think if the ground is no worse than good Limato will be much shorter than 5/2 and extremely difficult to beat.

Touchy, and goodbye!!!!!!!!!!!

Until Limato was aimed here I was really keen on The Tin Man e/w @ 8/1 if the rain stayed away. Hard to see Limato getting beat if he is on his 'A game' but still might take the chance if it remains on the fast side,

That's one for the aftertiming thread if ever I saw one - especially as you gave up betting on the horses after Found won the Arc.

comedy gold that one...wac

According to the weather forecast, there's showers around Friday and Saturday. It won't take much for Limato to be withdrawn. I'd want 6/4 him even turning up.

At the moment the only precipitation (slight) forecast is from 12pm to 3pm saturday and the days prior (even friday) are dry but cloudy. And knowing the British weather this could change in the blink of an eye.

B0llocks

Exactly what I thought impossible. Don't think they've been totally honest here.

Its only Good, Good to Soft in places. We know Ascot dries quickly, its warm for the time of year, and it could well be perfectly Good ground by race time.

I won't be backing either but have to strongly disagree with that train of thought IDB.

The connections of Limato (and Twilight Son) have been all over the shop regarding their plans all season. Proactive owner wants his own jockey (Bentley), horse needs time between his races, horse no longer needs time between his races, Limato was going to run in the Haydock Sprint Cup despite it being more likely that conditions would suit Twilight Son who was withdrawn at the final declaration stage despite being 100% according to his trainer who said the Sprint Cup plan was made according to the wishes of both owners.

Then it rained, ground went soft, so Limato did n't run in the Sprint Cup - if he really was 100% the owners of Twilight Son would surely have been unimpressed.

Limato wins Foret, owner wants to go for Breeders Cup Sprint, trainer wants to go for Breeders Cup Mile then they talk about running in this race.Personally think it would be asking a lot to take in the Foret, Champion Sprint and a Breeders Cup race. The cynic in me wonders if they were ever serious about running here and if there is an agreement with the owners of Twilight Son to allow him a free run at this one after the Haydock debacle. It's difficult to take what they say at face value which is a shame because Candy comes across as very likeable - perhaps it's difficult to manage the requirements of two Group One sprinters with separate owners (though their different ground requirements should make it straightforward enough).

Anyway Washington DC dos n't run either, so Ryan Moore is reunited with Twilight Son, I expect a big run.

hey uncle - I suffer from calling mares and fillies - him ...
So annoying!

However if it rained enough still think there won't be much between them two...if it doesn't rain then I wouldn't be confident on either of them....

But at this stage 11-4 vs 10/1 shot will win every time considering they have quite similar profiles ...

But good luck anyway ...

The Tin Man as long as the ground doesn't get any worse....

egg on their faces?

not if they wanted to run in the BC.

youd be mad not to have a pop at that imo.
may ever get another chance.

To run in the Breeders Cup has always been the target for Limato but for Mr Candy to state with intent Limato would run if the ground was good, and be left in at the 'Confirmation Stage' ie thursday, in that interview with Gina Harding was wholly misleading if he intended to withdraw Limato on thursday, which he did.

The ground is officially good all round at the moment. Unless the weather forecast for tonight and up to the race tomorrow are incorrect the backers of Limato would have been deprived of a great chance of winning this race, in my opinion; Limato is a gelding and this race is worth £340k to the winner.

in other news, Karl Burke stable in poor form 0-18 in two weeks before today - 4 runners today as far as I can see, all beaten with only one running competitively.

Mecca's Angel is obviously the best of this field but even though she hasn't been tested over 6f enough to confidently rule her out she has looked a 5f specialist so far, plus she comes here after a sub par effort. The best of the rest is Quiet Reflection who I have running a career peak last time with an improvement of 6lbs on her previous Haydock win. I'm not sure how much give there will be in the ground today but I made it closer to good to firm ground when she won the Haydock Gp2 and don't believe she necessarily requires a lot of cut in the ground. She's had quite a busy year and we're at the stage of the season when earlier form can get turned around but she'll be very hard to beat if she can maintain her latest level. It's encouraging that Burke has revealed that she put on 5lbs between Ascot and Haydock and she's gained another 2lbs since. Her price looks much too big here and she's a bet.

I've backed Brando ew at 14/1 - progressive, can't see too many negatives and biggish price.

Ground has put me off Twilight Son a bit. Famous last words. Good luck, all.