BETVICTOR GOLD CUP - FRODON 16/1 EW

KINGS SOCKS now 14s - useful French import second to Footpad... has come to pipes yard - likely to run in this race as mentioned in the stable tour this morning .. already a trickle of money coming for this horse.

I've Frodon & King Odyssey at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively. Kings Socks on list too as is Saphir Du Rheu.

Just the 43 entries with less than 2 weeks to go.

Top Gamble/Vibrato Valtat head the ratings on 160

From the last ten runnings.....

9/10 winners came from quite a narrow ratings band, 139-147 ,al ferof being the exception.

8/10 carried 11-0 stone or below

4/10 FR Bred

9/10 7 yr old or younger,little john being an 8 yr old

Using the ratings band only,shortlist of ten.

PFN has 3 of those,frodon,as de mee,bouvreil,no surprise were he to run V Valtat off 160,which might allow one of his others in off the ideal weight.

Not definative,sound investment ran off 159 last yr,he looked the sacrificial lamb for art mauresque,yet ran a cracker under top weight,just denied.

Plenty time before raceday.

And a question.....anyone know KING,S SOCKS OR,not showing on BHB website,they do have a history with this race.

Any nuggetts of wisdom encouraged,lets see if we can nail those with a squeak.

OOPS

****Using the ratings band and 7yr old or below that should read*****

Double Shuffle at 14s has solid ew chance decent course form, and stable form.
Hopefully decent weight and shows.

Really dry forecast for next few weeks so might favour horses that race handily and may make carrying weight that bit easier.
No idea what I fancy though.

Frodon declared tomorrow in a novice chase. Will it still run at Cheltenham as well?

yeah just saw the decs... very bizarre decision - thought he was being aimed at this race...

Just have to wait and see and hopes he runs well... but doesn't bode confidence

Are they running him tomorrow to get a penalty to make the cut next week.

Kings Socks out for the season according to RP news section.

Paul Nicholls column today confirms Frodon running today hoping to get 5lb penalty for next week.

Hasto fav for race now. But that wasn't an easy race and may leave its mark a bit with only 7 day turn around. But he jumped well

Typical example of Nicholls long term plan. It must surely go close if it gets a reasonable trip round. A bigger field might find him out but otherwise looks very well in.

Very annoying with Kings Socks fancied him too, but good result with Frodon edging closer to make the cut...
Obviously, concerned that had a run a week before the big race... but exactly 10 years ago Exotic Dancer did  the same and went on to win the race... sop hopefully an omen there...

I have also added CAID DU BERLAIS 16/1 (to replace King Socks bet :)) who won the race 2 years ago - on a similar weight and only 7 year old.

Cant believe last years winner ANNACOTTY is 25/1 so added him too!

final list:

FRODON
CAID DU BERLAIS
ANNACOTTY

Good Luck!

backed Voix Deau ave 125s on here.
Whether it turns up is another matter.
travelled quite well for a long way lto
over 3m.Trip more to his liking here,cse
wnr aswell.Well over priced if he shows.
   GL ALL

Indian Stream seems too big... will she run?

CAID DU BERLAIS is a good shout if ground come up on softer side of good, think he may get outpaced otherwise

First bet placed... AS DE MEE on at 16/1

Will definitely have a saver on that if he runs.

Frodon only qualifier for me.

I think Frodon is a terrible price on what he has achieved. He's been found wanting twice in big fields and Saturday's race against older horses is a massive step up from the small field novice chases he's been impressing in. His Triumph form was dented over the weekend as well.

Iris's 16/1 looking very good imo.

Not exactly a startling bit of insight there, though well done to Iris for taking that price. I was talking about the current best price of 5/1. Good luck to anyone taking that.

I know you were referring to the 5/1 price.
I wasn't attempting to be insightful .

I was just congratulating Iris on his Ante Post bet !!

Bouvreuil looks the best value of the Nicholl's runners to me. Form a bit in and out but has performed well twice under pressure at the festival.

Buywise anyone?  Only 2lbs higher than when a close second last year, ground should suit better than then and a nice pipe opener at Aintree.  Not a cert but 16/1 seems more than fair.

Heavy rain tonight and then more on Saturday - could be pretty tacky and tiring imo.

O'Neill making all the right noises about More Of That but he hasn't trained a winner for weeks. Can still see the current 7/1 looking big come off time.

Also if anyone hasn't seen the sponsors are offering 6 places.

Don't forget the rain will fall on watered ground. Claisse strikes again. At least we should be treated to the x-country.

anyone know if the rain hit the course or miss it,  thanks

18 mm hit the track last night. I think it's forecast to be dry until Friday night/early saturday morning when there could be a load more rain.

The rain yesterday can't have affected the track much which is stated as being good, good to soft in places and the x-country has now been abandoned due to being firm, hard in places. Paul Kealy has a good write up in the Weekender today and makes an interesting case for Aso. I'd glossed over it thinking it needs soft, and Venetia has been in outer space or something, but Aso has some solid form in the book, looks well weighted and 25/1 still available with bet365 is a working man's price.

Last season I thought that Taquin de Seuil was regressing but a review of the form suggests that he was running in some very high class races including the Ryanair when 13 lengths behind Vautour and at Aintree when 4th to Cue Card. He finished a fast finishing sixth over hurdles recently and is my choice for the BV.|

Sorry fifth at Aintree but look at the names in front and behind.

Took the 30s Aso  before the rain , and hope for more from Fri eve to Sat lunchtime . Have saver on Stiletto at 23 , will suit too .

village vic to run them into the ground-hopefully if gets left alone in the lead wont see which way he has gone.

Autocue    08 Nov 16 15:42 
Don't forget the rain will fall on watered ground. Claisse strikes again. At least we should be treated to the x-country.


The Cross Country race has been abandoned

A lot depends on how much rain they get on Saturday. I think the main point is that with the deluge they had last night it will have taken the sting out of the ground so it would be surprising if the likes of More of That and Stiletto are withdrawn on account of the ground and it would get softer if it rains on Saturday. You have to respect More of That as he was such a classy hurdler but I think he is better in smaller fields and could be a bit soft in the finish over fences - just my personal opinion. I like Taquin De Seuil and Stiletto at the prices for similar as reasons given above.

Aso is starting to come into the picture for me... 25/1 taken

I had Aso on my list to follow in his early days but he hasn't made quite the progress I expected. It is asking a lot from a yard that is only just beginning to have runners for it to be at its peak first time out.

The b1tch about this race, is the form of JJ O'Neill - it is rank bad currently, would love to see a winner or two from him today. More of That is miles better than anything in this race, yet he gets weight off Taquin Du Seul, Annacotty, Art Mauresque etc he's better than them, and he only has to give 3lbs to Frodon!! (This one would need to be pretty special to win this).

I've looked at Buywise a few times and a case can be made for sure, but how many chances does he need? Sizing Granite is a very intriuging entry for Tizzard but no idea what form it will be in fto for new stable, not sure what to make of jockey bookings with respect of Sizing Platinum. Aso would interest me if it turned soft.

I like all these in bold at the moment, will hang fire for now.....

any rain hit the course yet,

Evening GI.....Sounds like you have this race by the Nads.

Many more of these highlight posts..... Cuprinol springs to mind

FWIW......Spent a bit of time on the race,keep coming back to two horses

AS DE MEE....Off 139 he looks well weighted on his run at this meeting last year.Superb jumper,he still looked quirky at fontwell,stacks potential,getting him to settle will be the key,I like this lad aboard around this track.

BOUVREIL..... Backed him twice, at the last two festivals,just outgunned both times,he goes well on this track,another really good jumper,only 5,hoping with another summer under his belt,he has strengthened up.The purchase by the green and golds,does muddy the water a little,and so does the jockey booking.

Of the two I just favour the latter,ADM however has been stronger in the AP market,nicholls will know where he stands with his 4,the 4yr old I hope has been a smokescreen for one of the two above.

Looks a cracking renewal,with the question mark over the forecast,happy to take slightly shorter odds raceday than risk it turning into a real slog,in that unlikely event.

Best of luck to those playing.

Do horse's win this back to back? I remember Susan Nocks grey horse winning it at a huge price and not sure if it won it the following year
Also think Cyfor Malta won it back to back but my memory is not what it used to be
The above being the case i think Annacotty is a huge price and I fancy he may well try to make the running which would suit. TDS run very well on his comeback
and you would think he would be bang on for this and I need to desert Buywise who seems so talented but his jumping is so poor

Senor did the 2 Cheltenham Hcaps the  Murphys/Tripleprint in the same season. Cyfor won it twice but 4 years apart

Thanks Steamship. Was this race the Murphys for 1 year?

Between Bouvreuil and Stilletto for me. GL all.

Howdy noc, still swithering, just listening to JJ on a podcast saying MOT is a certainty, when does he ever say things like that? 11/2 available from WH, not my type of bet in this type of race but sorely tempted, but stable form still bugging me. As De Me I like best of the Nicholls

Time will tell, but I think this will turn out to be a very good renewal.

Good Luck all

Bouvreil and Double Shuffle my two.

Surprised how much Frodon has gone out in the betting... but hasn't deterred me, think he is still a good bet despite being a 4 year old.

I also added Double Shuffle 12/1 who looks handicapped well and connections do well in these types of races at Cheltenham.

Stilletto out. My 2 bets are Double Shuffle and Taquin du Seuil.

FRODON 8-1, agree he looks a nice price for this. The race he won at Wincanton as been won by some pretty illustrious names. Nice weight, jumps well. Looks super race, looking forward to watching this.

Morning GI

That does sound bullish,looking at his profile,the horse must be difficult to keep sound,very few miles on the clock,lots of talk re soft ground,easy side of good should be fine if today is the day.

Nicholls mob handed no easier to work out,time and again we see how course form stacks up here,hard to rule out anything  so early in the season.

Not a race to get heavily involved in for me,still looking forward to a great race.Present View was left at the start last year,sickener for supporters,hopefully no repeat this year.

Backed Aso and Frodon each way.Tough call in my opinion.

A very very rare event. Sage backs one ante post and it wins!!!! I nearly fainted when my screen showed it in red-then I remembered that anti post is a differnt market so the only frustration is that my small lay to save my stake will not reduce the "tax" on the win. Made my day though.

Well done sageform.
Very bad luck brendrew

rain probably helped the winner-what a race the second ran.carried out on his shield.

my fav horse at the mo.

hope sternrubin comes through tomorrow with similar front running performance.

WP Sage,hardlines Brendrew,tremendous finnish at the end of a searching gallop.

Good yardstick in third for future form lines.

Well done to all winners.

interested to no how the games most professional loser in 3rd is a good yardstick,he could come 3rd to 120 horses one week and 170 horses the next week, must be the worst horse in training to judge other horses against

the fact he is consistently 3rd/4th etc and always running his race, makes him the perfect yardstick to guage the form.

yeh but he,d be 3rd or 4th to horses rated 130 to 170,like rating football teams after beating sunderland,everyones beats them

Jonjo O'Neill is at a loss to explain More Of That's disappointing effort in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday.

The Jackdaws Castle handler had been expecting a big performance from the 2014 World Hurdle hero in the handicap feature, having billed him as the best horse he has trained in the run-up to the race.

However, the eight-year-old was pulled up by Barry Geraghty on the run to the line and O'Neill admits the future is far from clear for the JP McManus-owned gelding.

He said: "He seemed fine on Sunday morning but we will get him looked at.

"For me, it was too disappointing. We will have to recalibrate and see where we are going to go with him.

"I hope he will be back but we will have to see as he was very disappointing."

Clearly going for the penalty to get in the race was a mistake as horse needs time between races... so when he hit the fence must have knocked the stuffing out of him... and his chance

Nice to see he redeemed himself here in Caspian.

Think he will be a major player in the Ryanair in Cheltenham if he goes there... not sure what he is being aimed at tbf ...

Backed in this race. Didn't today
Well done in keeping the faith

Well done.