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IrisDeBalme
09 Oct 16 09:15
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 3,025 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
Big jump race of the season in less than a months time.  Some really good horses and some old favourites too.  But I thought id seek out the most obvious value bet in the race.  FRODON trained by Nicholls - this horse has come up short of top company namely in the Triumph Hurdle - don't think he really had the speed like his other rivals.  But has run in 2 chase races this season and has shown a clear set of his heels against his opponents and seems much better suited to chases.

Negative is he is a 4 year old which suggests he has it all to do - but CAID DU BERLAIS was a 5 year old and went on to win the Paddy Power.

I'm on him to start my portfolio ... think 16/1 is value.

Good Luck.
Pause Switch to Standard View BETVICTOR GOLD CUP - FRODON 16/1 EW
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Report IrisDeBalme October 17, 2016 9:25 PM BST
KINGS SOCKS now 14s - useful French import second to Footpad... has come to pipes yard - likely to run in this race as mentioned in the stable tour this morning .. already a trickle of money coming for this horse.
Report cvbyrne. October 18, 2016 7:57 PM BST
I've Frodon & King Odyssey at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively. Kings Socks on list too as is Saphir Du Rheu.
Report nocturnal October 30, 2016 9:05 PM GMT
Just the 43 entries with less than 2 weeks to go.

Top Gamble/Vibrato Valtat head the ratings on 160

From the last ten runnings.....

9/10 winners came from quite a narrow ratings band, 139-147 ,al ferof being the exception.

8/10 carried 11-0 stone or below

4/10 FR Bred

9/10 7 yr old or younger,little john being an 8 yr old

Using the ratings band only,shortlist of ten.

PFN has 3 of those,frodon,as de mee,bouvreil,no surprise were he to run V Valtat off 160,which might allow one of his others in off the ideal weight.

Not definative,sound investment ran off 159 last yr,he looked the sacrificial lamb for art mauresque,yet ran a cracker under top weight,just denied.

Plenty time before raceday.

And a question.....anyone know KING,S SOCKS OR,not showing on BHB website,they do have a history with this race.

Any nuggetts of wisdom encouraged,lets see if we can nail those with a squeak.
Report nocturnal October 30, 2016 9:11 PM GMT
OOPS

****Using the ratings band and 7yr old or below that should read*****
Report stevo1 November 1, 2016 3:11 PM GMT
Double Shuffle at 14s has solid ew chance decent course form, and stable form.
Hopefully decent weight and shows.
Report unclepuncle November 1, 2016 7:52 PM GMT
Really dry forecast for next few weeks so might favour horses that race handily and may make carrying weight that bit easier.
No idea what I fancy though.Laugh
Report sageform November 4, 2016 8:09 PM GMT
Frodon declared tomorrow in a novice chase. Will it still run at Cheltenham as well?
Report IrisDeBalme November 4, 2016 8:59 PM GMT
yeah just saw the decs... very bizarre decision - thought he was being aimed at this race...

Just have to wait and see and hopes he runs well... but doesn't bode confidence
Report SOULDANCER November 4, 2016 9:59 PM GMT
Are they running him tomorrow to get a penalty to make the cut next week.
Report nocturnal November 5, 2016 12:09 AM GMT
Kings Socks out for the season according to RP news section.
Report SOULDANCER November 5, 2016 11:31 AM GMT
Paul Nicholls column today confirms Frodon running today hoping to get 5lb penalty for next week.
Report cvbyrne. November 5, 2016 1:43 PM GMT
Hasto fav for race now. But that wasn't an easy race and may leave its mark a bit with only 7 day turn around. But he jumped well
Report sageform November 6, 2016 6:44 AM GMT
Typical example of Nicholls long term plan. It must surely go close if it gets a reasonable trip round. A bigger field might find him out but otherwise looks very well in.
Report IrisDeBalme November 6, 2016 8:13 AM GMT
Very annoying with Kings Socks fancied him too, but good result with Frodon edging closer to make the cut...
Obviously, concerned that had a run a week before the big race... but exactly 10 years ago Exotic Dancer did  the same and went on to win the race... sop hopefully an omen there...

I have also added CAID DU BERLAIS 16/1 (to replace King Socks bet :)) who won the race 2 years ago - on a similar weight and only 7 year old.

Cant believe last years winner ANNACOTTY is 25/1 so added him too!

final list:

FRODON
CAID DU BERLAIS
ANNACOTTY

Good Luck!
Report penzance November 6, 2016 4:11 PM GMT
backed Voix Deau ave 125s on here.
Whether it turns up is another matter.
travelled quite well for a long way lto
over 3m.Trip more to his liking here,cse
wnr aswell.Well over priced if he shows.
   GL ALL
Report opatcho November 6, 2016 7:08 PM GMT
Indian Stream seems too big... will she run?
Report opatcho November 6, 2016 9:57 PM GMT
CAID DU BERLAIS is a good shout if ground come up on softer side of good, think he may get outpaced otherwise
Report opatcho November 6, 2016 11:37 PM GMT
First bet placed... AS DE MEE on at 16/1 Crazy
Report Autocue November 7, 2016 11:48 AM GMT
Will definitely have a saver on that if he runs.
Report Facts November 7, 2016 9:23 PM GMT
Frodon only qualifier for me.
Report Autocue November 8, 2016 8:56 AM GMT
I think Frodon is a terrible price on what he has achieved. He's been found wanting twice in big fields and Saturday's race against older horses is a massive step up from the small field novice chases he's been impressing in. His Triumph form was dented over the weekend as well.
Report Facts November 8, 2016 9:19 AM GMT
Iris's 16/1 looking very good imo.
Report Autocue November 8, 2016 10:51 AM GMT
Not exactly a startling bit of insight there, though well done to Iris for taking that price. I was talking about the current best price of 5/1. Good luck to anyone taking that.
Report Facts November 8, 2016 12:24 PM GMT
I know you were referring to the 5/1 price.
I wasn't attempting to be insightful .

I was just congratulating Iris on his Ante Post bet !!
Report Autocue November 8, 2016 2:21 PM GMT
Bouvreuil looks the best value of the Nicholl's runners to me. Form a bit in and out but has performed well twice under pressure at the festival.
Report alexmct November 8, 2016 2:52 PM GMT
Buywise anyone?  Only 2lbs higher than when a close second last year, ground should suit better than then and a nice pipe opener at Aintree.  Not a cert but 16/1 seems more than fair.
Report unclepuncle November 8, 2016 3:20 PM GMT
Heavy rain tonight and then more on Saturday - could be pretty tacky and tiring imo.

O'Neill making all the right noises about More Of That but he hasn't trained a winner for weeks. Can still see the current 7/1 looking big come off time.

Also if anyone hasn't seen the sponsors are offering 6 places.
Report Autocue November 8, 2016 3:42 PM GMT
Don't forget the rain will fall on watered ground. Claisse strikes again. At least we should be treated to the x-country.
Report luckyme November 9, 2016 4:22 PM GMT
anyone know if the rain hit the course or miss it,  thanks
Report Swagger November 9, 2016 4:46 PM GMT
18 mm hit the track last night. I think it's forecast to be dry until Friday night/early saturday morning when there could be a load more rain.
Report Autocue November 9, 2016 5:14 PM GMT
The rain yesterday can't have affected the track much which is stated as being good, good to soft in places and the x-country has now been abandoned due to being firm, hard in places. Paul Kealy has a good write up in the Weekender today and makes an interesting case for Aso. I'd glossed over it thinking it needs soft, and Venetia has been in outer space or something, but Aso has some solid form in the book, looks well weighted and 25/1 still available with bet365 is a working man's price.
Report sageform November 9, 2016 6:09 PM GMT
Last season I thought that Taquin de Seuil was regressing but a review of the form suggests that he was running in some very high class races including the Ryanair when 13 lengths behind Vautour and at Aintree when 4th to Cue Card. He finished a fast finishing sixth over hurdles recently and is my choice for the BV.|
Report sageform November 9, 2016 6:11 PM GMT
Sorry fifth at Aintree but look at the names in front and behind.
Report paulo47 November 9, 2016 6:24 PM GMT
Took the 30s Aso  before the rain , and hope for more from Fri eve to Sat lunchtime . Have saver on Stiletto at 23 , will suit too .
Report brendrew November 9, 2016 8:49 PM GMT
village vic to run them into the ground-hopefully if gets left alone in the lead wont see which way he has gone.
Report Facts November 9, 2016 10:37 PM GMT
Autocue    08 Nov 16 15:42 
Don't forget the rain will fall on watered ground. Claisse strikes again. At least we should be treated to the x-country.



The Cross Country race has been abandoned
Report Swagger November 9, 2016 11:12 PM GMT
A lot depends on how much rain they get on Saturday. I think the main point is that with the deluge they had last night it will have taken the sting out of the ground so it would be surprising if the likes of More of That and Stiletto are withdrawn on account of the ground and it would get softer if it rains on Saturday. You have to respect More of That as he was such a classy hurdler but I think he is better in smaller fields and could be a bit soft in the finish over fences - just my personal opinion. I like Taquin De Seuil and Stiletto at the prices for similar as reasons given above.
Report opatcho November 9, 2016 11:27 PM GMT
Aso is starting to come into the picture for me... 25/1 taken Crazy
Report sageform November 10, 2016 8:02 AM GMT
I had Aso on my list to follow in his early days but he hasn't made quite the progress I expected. It is asking a lot from a yard that is only just beginning to have runners for it to be at its peak first time out.
Report GI MAC November 11, 2016 11:46 AM GMT
The b1tch about this race, is the form of JJ O'Neill - it is rank bad currently, would love to see a winner or two from him today. More of That is miles better than anything in this race, yet he gets weight off Taquin Du Seul, Annacotty, Art Mauresque etc he's better than them, and he only has to give 3lbs to Frodon!! (This one would need to be pretty special to win this).

I've looked at Buywise a few times and a case can be made for sure, but how many chances does he need? Sizing Granite is a very intriuging entry for Tizzard but no idea what form it will be in fto for new stable, not sure what to make of jockey bookings with respect of Sizing Platinum. Aso would interest me if it turned soft.

I like all these in bold at the moment, will hang fire for now.....
Report luckyme November 11, 2016 6:51 PM GMT
any rain hit the course yet,
Report nocturnal November 11, 2016 7:51 PM GMT
Evening GI.....Sounds like you have this race by the Nads.

Many more of these highlight posts..... Cuprinol springs to mindGrin

FWIW......Spent a bit of time on the race,keep coming back to two horses

AS DE MEE....Off 139 he looks well weighted on his run at this meeting last year.Superb jumper,he still looked quirky at fontwell,stacks potential,getting him to settle will be the key,I like this lad aboard around this track.

BOUVREIL..... Backed him twice, at the last two festivals,just outgunned both times,he goes well on this track,another really good jumper,only 5,hoping with another summer under his belt,he has strengthened up.The purchase by the green and golds,does muddy the water a little,and so does the jockey booking.

Of the two I just favour the latter,ADM however has been stronger in the AP market,nicholls will know where he stands with his 4,the 4yr old I hope has been a smokescreen for one of the two above.

Looks a cracking renewal,with the question mark over the forecast,happy to take slightly shorter odds raceday than risk it turning into a real slog,in that unlikely event.

Best of luck to those playing.
Report Giddy November 11, 2016 8:08 PM GMT
Do horse's win this back to back? I remember Susan Nocks grey horse winning it at a huge price and not sure if it won it the following year
Also think Cyfor Malta won it back to back but my memory is not what it used to be
The above being the case i think Annacotty is a huge price and I fancy he may well try to make the running which would suit. TDS run very well on his comeback
and you would think he would be bang on for this and I need to desert Buywise who seems so talented but his jumping is so poor
Report Steamship November 11, 2016 8:24 PM GMT
Senor did the 2 Cheltenham Hcaps the  Murphys/Tripleprint in the same season. Cyfor won it twice but 4 years apart
Report Giddy November 11, 2016 8:47 PM GMT
Thanks Steamship. Was this race the Murphys for 1 year?
Report Swagger November 11, 2016 10:40 PM GMT
Between Bouvreuil and Stilletto for me. GL all.
Report GI MAC November 12, 2016 8:52 AM GMT
Howdy noc, still swithering, just listening to JJ on a podcast saying MOT is a certainty, when does he ever say things like that? 11/2 available from WH, not my type of bet in this type of race but sorely tempted, but stable form still bugging me. As De Me I like best of the Nicholls

Time will tell, but I think this will turn out to be a very good renewal.

Good Luck all
Report jasey November 12, 2016 9:26 AM GMT
Bouvreil and Double Shuffle my two.
Report IrisDeBalme November 12, 2016 10:00 AM GMT
Surprised how much Frodon has gone out in the betting... but hasn't deterred me, think he is still a good bet despite being a 4 year old.

I also added Double Shuffle 12/1 who looks handicapped well and connections do well in these types of races at Cheltenham.
Report sageform November 12, 2016 10:17 AM GMT
Stilletto out. My 2 bets are Double Shuffle and Taquin du Seuil.
Report SOULDANCER November 12, 2016 10:23 AM GMT
FRODON 8-1, agree he looks a nice price for this. The race he won at Wincanton as been won by some pretty illustrious names. Nice weight, jumps well. Looks super race, looking forward to watching this.
Report nocturnal November 12, 2016 10:42 AM GMT
Morning GI

That does sound bullish,looking at his profile,the horse must be difficult to keep sound,very few miles on the clock,lots of talk re soft ground,easy side of good should be fine if today is the day.

Nicholls mob handed no easier to work out,time and again we see how course form stacks up here,hard to rule out anything  so early in the season.

Not a race to get heavily involved in for me,still looking forward to a great race.Present View was left at the start last year,sickener for supporters,hopefully no repeat this year.
Report FELTFAIR November 12, 2016 11:44 AM GMT
Backed Aso and Frodon each way.Tough call in my opinion.
Report sageform November 12, 2016 2:42 PM GMT
A very very rare event. Sage backs one ante post and it wins!!!! I nearly fainted when my screen showed it in red-then I remembered that anti post is a differnt market so the only frustration is that my small lay to save my stake will not reduce the "tax" on the win. Made my day though.
Report Facts November 12, 2016 2:56 PM GMT
Well done sageform.
Very bad luck brendrew
Report brendrew November 12, 2016 8:31 PM GMT
rain probably helped the winner-what a race the second ran.carried out on his shield.

my fav horse at the mo.

hope sternrubin comes through tomorrow with similar front running performance.
Report nocturnal November 12, 2016 9:31 PM GMT
WP Sage,hardlines Brendrew,tremendous finnish at the end of a searching gallop.

Good yardstick in third for future form lines.

Well done to all winners.
Report 1st time poster November 13, 2016 10:20 AM GMT
interested to no how the games most professional loser in 3rd is a good yardstick,he could come 3rd to 120 horses one week and 170 horses the next week, must be the worst horse in training to judge other horses against
Report GI MAC November 13, 2016 12:22 PM GMT
the fact he is consistently 3rd/4th etc and always running his race, makes him the perfect yardstick to guage the form.
Report 1st time poster November 13, 2016 1:24 PM GMT
yeh but he,d be 3rd or 4th to horses rated 130 to 170,like rating football teams after beating sunderland,everyones beats them
Report shockster November 14, 2016 10:30 AM GMT
Jonjo O'Neill is at a loss to explain More Of That's disappointing effort in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday.

The Jackdaws Castle handler had been expecting a big performance from the 2014 World Hurdle hero in the handicap feature, having billed him as the best horse he has trained in the run-up to the race.

However, the eight-year-old was pulled up by Barry Geraghty on the run to the line and O'Neill admits the future is far from clear for the JP McManus-owned gelding.

He said: "He seemed fine on Sunday morning but we will get him looked at.

"For me, it was too disappointing. We will have to recalibrate and see where we are going to go with him.

"I hope he will be back but we will have to see as he was very disappointing."
Report IrisDeBalme December 10, 2016 10:58 PM GMT
Clearly going for the penalty to get in the race was a mistake as horse needs time between races... so when he hit the fence must have knocked the stuffing out of him... and his chance

Nice to see he redeemed himself here in Caspian.

Think he will be a major player in the Ryanair in Cheltenham if he goes there... not sure what he is being aimed at tbf ...
Report Facts December 10, 2016 11:16 PM GMT
Backed in this race. Didn't today Sad
Well done in keeping the faith
Report johnn December 11, 2016 12:39 PM GMT
Well done.
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