Horse Antepost
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Big jump race of the season in less than a months time. Some really good horses and some old favourites too. But I thought id seek out the most obvious value bet in the race. FRODON trained by Nicholls - this horse has come up short of top company namely in the Triumph Hurdle - don't think he really had the speed like his other rivals. But has run in 2 chase races this season and has shown a clear set of his heels against his opponents and seems much better suited to chases.
Negative is he is a 4 year old which suggests he has it all to do - but CAID DU BERLAIS was a 5 year old and went on to win the Paddy Power.
I'm on him to start my portfolio ... think 16/1 is value.
Good Luck.
Negative is he is a 4 year old which suggests he has it all to do - but CAID DU BERLAIS was a 5 year old and went on to win the Paddy Power.
I'm on him to start my portfolio ... think 16/1 is value.
Good Luck.
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KINGS SOCKS now 14s - useful French import second to Footpad... has come to pipes yard - likely to run in this race as mentioned in the stable tour this morning .. already a trickle of money coming for this horse.
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I've Frodon & King Odyssey at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively. Kings Socks on list too as is Saphir Du Rheu.
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Just the 43 entries with less than 2 weeks to go.
Top Gamble/Vibrato Valtat head the ratings on 160 From the last ten runnings..... 9/10 winners came from quite a narrow ratings band, 139-147 ,al ferof being the exception. 8/10 carried 11-0 stone or below 4/10 FR Bred 9/10 7 yr old or younger,little john being an 8 yr old Using the ratings band only,shortlist of ten. PFN has 3 of those,frodon,as de mee,bouvreil,no surprise were he to run V Valtat off 160,which might allow one of his others in off the ideal weight. Not definative,sound investment ran off 159 last yr,he looked the sacrificial lamb for art mauresque,yet ran a cracker under top weight,just denied. Plenty time before raceday. And a question.....anyone know KING,S SOCKS OR,not showing on BHB website,they do have a history with this race. Any nuggetts of wisdom encouraged,lets see if we can nail those with a squeak. |
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OOPS
****Using the ratings band and 7yr old or below that should read***** |
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Double Shuffle at 14s has solid ew chance decent course form, and stable form.
Hopefully decent weight and shows. |
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Really dry forecast for next few weeks so might favour horses that race handily and may make carrying weight that bit easier.
No idea what I fancy though.  |
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Frodon declared tomorrow in a novice chase. Will it still run at Cheltenham as well?
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yeah just saw the decs... very bizarre decision - thought he was being aimed at this race...
Just have to wait and see and hopes he runs well... but doesn't bode confidence |
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Are they running him tomorrow to get a penalty to make the cut next week.
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Kings Socks out for the season according to RP news section.
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Paul Nicholls column today confirms Frodon running today hoping to get 5lb penalty for next week.
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Hasto fav for race now. But that wasn't an easy race and may leave its mark a bit with only 7 day turn around. But he jumped well
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Typical example of Nicholls long term plan. It must surely go close if it gets a reasonable trip round. A bigger field might find him out but otherwise looks very well in.
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Very annoying with Kings Socks fancied him too, but good result with Frodon edging closer to make the cut...
Obviously, concerned that had a run a week before the big race... but exactly 10 years ago Exotic Dancer did the same and went on to win the race... sop hopefully an omen there... I have also added CAID DU BERLAIS 16/1 (to replace King Socks bet :)) who won the race 2 years ago - on a similar weight and only 7 year old. Cant believe last years winner ANNACOTTY is 25/1 so added him too! final list: FRODON CAID DU BERLAIS ANNACOTTY Good Luck! |
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backed Voix Deau ave 125s on here.
Whether it turns up is another matter. travelled quite well for a long way lto over 3m.Trip more to his liking here,cse wnr aswell.Well over priced if he shows. GL ALL |
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Indian Stream seems too big... will she run?
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CAID DU BERLAIS is a good shout if ground come up on softer side of good, think he may get outpaced otherwise
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First bet placed... AS DE MEE on at 16/1
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Will definitely have a saver on that if he runs.
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Frodon only qualifier for me.
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I think Frodon is a terrible price on what he has achieved. He's been found wanting twice in big fields and Saturday's race against older horses is a massive step up from the small field novice chases he's been impressing in. His Triumph form was dented over the weekend as well.
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Iris's 16/1 looking very good imo.
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Not exactly a startling bit of insight there, though well done to Iris for taking that price. I was talking about the current best price of 5/1. Good luck to anyone taking that.
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I know you were referring to the 5/1 price.
I wasn't attempting to be insightful . I was just congratulating Iris on his Ante Post bet !! |
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Bouvreuil looks the best value of the Nicholl's runners to me. Form a bit in and out but has performed well twice under pressure at the festival.
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Buywise anyone? Only 2lbs higher than when a close second last year, ground should suit better than then and a nice pipe opener at Aintree. Not a cert but 16/1 seems more than fair.
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Heavy rain tonight and then more on Saturday - could be pretty tacky and tiring imo.
O'Neill making all the right noises about More Of That but he hasn't trained a winner for weeks. Can still see the current 7/1 looking big come off time. Also if anyone hasn't seen the sponsors are offering 6 places. |
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Don't forget the rain will fall on watered ground. Claisse strikes again. At least we should be treated to the x-country.
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anyone know if the rain hit the course or miss it, thanks
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18 mm hit the track last night. I think it's forecast to be dry until Friday night/early saturday morning when there could be a load more rain.
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The rain yesterday can't have affected the track much which is stated as being good, good to soft in places and the x-country has now been abandoned due to being firm, hard in places. Paul Kealy has a good write up in the Weekender today and makes an interesting case for Aso. I'd glossed over it thinking it needs soft, and Venetia has been in outer space or something, but Aso has some solid form in the book, looks well weighted and 25/1 still available with bet365 is a working man's price.
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Last season I thought that Taquin de Seuil was regressing but a review of the form suggests that he was running in some very high class races including the Ryanair when 13 lengths behind Vautour and at Aintree when 4th to Cue Card. He finished a fast finishing sixth over hurdles recently and is my choice for the BV.|
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Sorry fifth at Aintree but look at the names in front and behind.
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Took the 30s Aso before the rain , and hope for more from Fri eve to Sat lunchtime . Have saver on Stiletto at 23 , will suit too .
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village vic to run them into the ground-hopefully if gets left alone in the lead wont see which way he has gone.
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Autocue 08 Nov 16 15:42
Don't forget the rain will fall on watered ground. Claisse strikes again. At least we should be treated to the x-country. The Cross Country race has been abandoned |
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A lot depends on how much rain they get on Saturday. I think the main point is that with the deluge they had last night it will have taken the sting out of the ground so it would be surprising if the likes of More of That and Stiletto are withdrawn on account of the ground and it would get softer if it rains on Saturday. You have to respect More of That as he was such a classy hurdler but I think he is better in smaller fields and could be a bit soft in the finish over fences - just my personal opinion. I like Taquin De Seuil and Stiletto at the prices for similar as reasons given above.
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Aso is starting to come into the picture for me... 25/1 taken
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I had Aso on my list to follow in his early days but he hasn't made quite the progress I expected. It is asking a lot from a yard that is only just beginning to have runners for it to be at its peak first time out.
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