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Dewhurst Stakes
Dewhurst Stakes
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Just to make this absolute clear to Figgis and others...there is no correlation whatsoever between Air Force Blue and Churchill, apart from the trainer. So unless you're suggesting O'Brien is a trainer of 2yos and his progeny don't progress (ridiculous) or that sons of Galileo don't progress (ridiculous), we are left with sires as the differential. Of course they're all individuals and anything could happen to Churchill but please don't compare sons of War Front with sons of Galileo - you're insulting the old boy, cheers.
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please don't compare sons of War Front with sons of Galileo
Breeding was never mentioned by me. |
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You compared him to AFB, how they progressed in their first year and, by association, what might happen at 3.
If you're not taking breeding into account when you make those assumptions I find that 'surprising' Figgis. |
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You compared him to AFB, how they progressed in their first year and, by association, what might happen at 3
I'd argue that when a horse makes large improvement throughout its 2yo year it's actually less likely to make much improvement from 2 to 3 Breeding has nothing to do with it and it would only be an assumption if I'd said it will happen, I said less likely. |
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Ok, so actually there's no correlation at all between the two colts barring a flimsy map of their 2yo career, and you're prepared to accept sons of Galileo have a seriously enhanced prospect of training on than sons of War Front? Or do you not take breeding into account at all, Figs?
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Ok, so actually there's no correlation at all between the two colts barring a flimsy map of their 2yo career
On my findings on the subject I'd say it was much more than flimsy. Not certain by any means but certainly makes Churchill a bigger price than 2/1. I take breeding into account as no more than a ball park estimated guess, as I've never seen any work on the matter that proved more accurate than that. If anyone knows more then they're keeping it hid. |
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I'm more than happy to reveal my findings, Figs. War Front is the bastad son of Woodman when it comes to over hyped, over paid, over rated stallions. Barge pole, old boy.
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* Or even educated guess. I don't doubt you're right about War Front Headmaster. I just reckon that a 2yo with Churchill's profile of making big improvement during his first season is less likely to make the necessary improvement from the end of his 2yo season to the spring, regardless of his breeding, particularly if coming from certain yards and O'Brien's is one of them. There are 2yos that seemed to make big progress but sometimes the races weren't run to suit and their true ability was hidden. I don't believe that's the case with Churchil, he's simply a much better horse than when winning the Chesham. If he was already up to Guineas winning class he wouldn't need to improve again but I think he's a bit below winning an average Guineas at the moment, despite it not looking a great renewal at this stage. This doesn't mean I'm saying he can't improve, just that I think it's odds against rather than the 'will improve' improve talk we hear that implies it is long odds on for him to do so.
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Sometimes if a poster persists/continues to defend an indefensible point eg the earth is flat or in this instance tarring Galileo with the same brush as War Front then maybe it would be best to 'ignore' (post and poster) as this sort of 'correlation' will resurface again in the future.
It was not Churchill's fault that the opposition, apart from his stablemate/pacesetter, did not put up a more robust performance. But to compare Galileo to War Front eg on progeny, is downright questionable and spurious. The price of Churchill for the 2000G has contracted further from 7/2 to 2/1 post his latest victory, and with a further one furlong in the 2000G I'd find it difficult for any horse on show presently and those that ran in the Dewhurst to overturn the Dewhurst results, all things being equal; the question of whether there is still value backing Churchill now is individual dependent, similar to his post National Stakes victory price of 6/1. |
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Not an ante post play now @ 2s, but would not have much concerns about going on as a 3yo being by Galileo myself.
So if your on at better prices already with Churchill then hope all goes well for you, no doubt atm he's the one to beat. Wouldn't be giving up on a few behind yest, as it was a rather messy race from start to finish. On his form, breeding & his action, I think South Seas will need some kind of ease in the ground. Blue Point is a sprinter for me. Rivet was in a poor position when the steady pace lifted & never really got a clean crack at the race. Seven Heavens is still very immature for such a test at 2. |
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Millerracing67,
I'd tend to agree regards the value of Churchill now unless one is Churchill 'connected' and mega rich ie a return of 100% or more come race day, all things being equal, is not to be sneezed at. The added one furlong is a bonus unless extraordinary improvement from any of the Dewhurst runners and/or a late developer emerged from the 'woodwork' so to speak. At the moment 'lucky' enough to be on Churchill and Caravaggio at prices ranging from 12/1 down to 7/2 with outlay recouped at 5/2 and below - silly and imprudent not to, I supposed. It will be a bonus if at least one of these two make the 2000G next May. Then again, look what happened to Idaho in the Leger race, a situation that had to be taken on the chin and accepted - part and partial of horse racing, even on the 'flat'. |
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But to compare Galileo to War Front eg on progeny, is downright questionable and spurious.
Which is probably why the two were never compared. if Found runs and wins this year's 'Arc' I'd give up horse racing immediately, and that's a PROMISE! And if a poster comes out with a statement like that but continues to post twaddle then it's safe to say he's the bull**** he always seemed  |
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At no point has Figgis or anyone else suggested on breeding he won't train on.
He is far and away the likeliest winner so well done if you got on at 7/2 or 6/1 etc. |
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impossible 123, as someone who has Mehmas in their portfolio of bets on the race, you are in no position to speak with any authority on the subject.
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Given he has given up betting on horse racing after Found won the Arc I guess his only option is to talk about the antepost bets he placed before then.
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Howellsy,
With due respect I was extremely impressed with the constitution of Mehmas (giving 3lbs) when he beat Blue Point but overlooked his pony size to be a probable 2000G runner. Anyway, that is neither here nor there compare to the absurd 'correlation' from a poster (from the reply of The Headmaster to that poster) used to not to appreciate or downgrade the performance of Churchill, a progeny of Galileo, in the Dewhurst and his chances of maintaining/improving his performance next year citing Air Force Blue, a progeny of War Front, and not Galileo - a chalk and cheese, springs to mind. unclepuncle, I had a feeling 'Found' would win the 'Arc' after my vociferous dislike of her prior the race eg being a 'professional 2nd', and I even posted 'good luck to her backers' prior (somehow I knew that would happen, don't know why). And true enough, everything went well for her, and Moore! I'd still not back her should she run in the Champion Stakes against Almanzor or QEII against Ribchester and/or Galileo Gold. This time, no doubt, her price will be much skinnier post her 'Arc' win. |
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Why would you even mention the possibility of Found running in the qe2? I like your enthusiasm for the game but you speak with unearned authority.
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v Lippy lippy bagga mouth
Promises |
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v if Found runs and wins this year's 'Arc' I'd give up horse racing immediately, and that's a PROMISE!
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I had a feeling 'Found' would win the 'Arc'
somehow I knew that would happen, don't know why  Glad he didn't retire as I find his posts quite funny, the ones I can understand that is. Would be interested to know where the £50 charity donation went though? |
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Howellsy,
My apology, that was a typo error - it should have read Minding and not Found. Nevertheless, I'd still not back the latter in either the Fillies and Mares Stakes (12f) or the Champion Stakes (10f). |