Horse Antepost
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5 Day decs in, and markets reacted to this. For me AFJAAN is the standout entry. Looked Group class when weaving from the back at Kempton over 8F LTO, and on viewing the video of prior runs, a couple of times he has surged through to lead and been chinned on the line also over 8F. Given a 7F straight course like Ascot, and a handicap rating of 101 I can see 365's 14/1 being taken quickly. Haggas's horses are running very well, he rates the horse enough to enter him in The Group 2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket the week after Ascot, and given AFJAAN is a gelding the 1st prize this weekend of £112K will hopefully mean a run this week, regardless of the group race entry a week later for lower prize money.
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What a very competitive and tricky race to fathom.
Theres a heap of improvers - Certificate, Growl, Squats, Librisa Breeze, Firmament - as well as your pick AND older horses like Buckstay, Right Touch etal. Think its absolutely impossible personally as you could back 5 and not get the winner, which in a 17 runner handicap isnt good news.
One to watch or back in small stakes and a race to pick the bones out for the future.
FWIW I'll have a few quid on Librisa Breeze but wont be going mad!
Theres a heap of improvers - Certificate, Growl, Squats, Librisa Breeze, Firmament - as well as your pick AND older horses like Buckstay, Right Touch etal. Think its absolutely impossible personally as you could back 5 and not get the winner, which in a 17 runner handicap isnt good news.
One to watch or back in small stakes and a race to pick the bones out for the future.
FWIW I'll have a few quid on Librisa Breeze but wont be going mad!
I have played tentatively on LIBRISA BREEZE... 9/1 and SUZI'S CONNNOSIEUR @33/1
Will wait for decs to see if GROWL is entered and will switch to him as my main bet.
Good Luck
Will wait for decs to see if GROWL is entered and will switch to him as my main bet.
Good Luck
Suzi's at 33's for me as well IDB, and I've also went for Big Time at 16's.
Really keen on the chances of Suzi's placing, and hopeful Big Time can go close. Thought he was a bit unlucky at Goodwood last time, and has swerved a couple of potential engagements for (hopefully) this one.
Really keen on the chances of Suzi's placing, and hopeful Big Time can go close. Thought he was a bit unlucky at Goodwood last time, and has swerved a couple of potential engagements for (hopefully) this one.
Afjaan
betilyerded is right this looks like an impossible puzzle, and I have to agree with deepingfox that Afjaan is a standout entry who looks relatively well weighted against those at the top of the handicap but there is two statistics that appear to wipe out nearly half a dozen of the fancied runners near the top of the betting that make him even more enticing.
All 10 of the last 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above
9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than once that season
They respectively take out Castle Harbour and Librisa Breeze, Firmament, Growl and Dutch Law at first glance.
We could talk all day about the worthiness of statistics in pinpointing winners but sometimes they have a way of cutting the field down to something more manageable, and it will be interesting to see if they are fulfilled. Afjaan for me also.
betilyerded is right this looks like an impossible puzzle, and I have to agree with deepingfox that Afjaan is a standout entry who looks relatively well weighted against those at the top of the handicap but there is two statistics that appear to wipe out nearly half a dozen of the fancied runners near the top of the betting that make him even more enticing.
All 10 of the last 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above
9 of the last 10 winners had won no more than once that season
They respectively take out Castle Harbour and Librisa Breeze, Firmament, Growl and Dutch Law at first glance.
We could talk all day about the worthiness of statistics in pinpointing winners but sometimes they have a way of cutting the field down to something more manageable, and it will be interesting to see if they are fulfilled. Afjaan for me also.
Actually agree with OP took 12s with PP available now ... Think he will go off fave on the day....so value at that price
Librisa Breeze and Firmament ( 8/1 and 10/1 respectively)
i quite like Burnt sugar at 20's, ran a cracker in the wokingham but run some strange races since. But seems well weighted if he can run to his previous ascot runs.
The other one i like is Remarkable, obviously the one open to most improvement, ran well in the jersey, bit of a concern regarding the layoff. Good luck
The other one i like is Remarkable, obviously the one open to most improvement, ran well in the jersey, bit of a concern regarding the layoff. Good luck
I'm quite surprised how much FIRMANENT has been backed down to 6/1 now... considering how much weight he has I cant have him at all in my list (happy to be wrong on this :))... doesn't seem the most obvious from a stats angle... would have thought at least a claimer would have aided his chance...
Anyway I do feel a bit false prices for the top 2 in the market.. will e interesting to see how the market forms on the off...
Anyway I do feel a bit false prices for the top 2 in the market.. will e interesting to see how the market forms on the off...
I have taken a chance with Dream Dubai. There is one line that says he is weighted to beat the favourite and yet he is quoted at 66/1.
He was less than five lengths behind Quiet Reflection , how far would she win this by off of 100?
The run behind Gifted Master was pretty good too.
It could be that the horse is a monkey but at the price I could not resist the temptation.
He was less than five lengths behind Quiet Reflection , how far would she win this by off of 100?
The run behind Gifted Master was pretty good too.
It could be that the horse is a monkey but at the price I could not resist the temptation.
With the rain falling 2day, I like the ew chances of Librisa Breeze 11/2 & Heavens Guest 20/1.
Gd luck lads.
Gd luck lads.
Victory from the jaws of defeat!!! WOW :-)
Smart horse with ease in the ground
Smart horse with ease in the ground
Thank you. Understandably my eyes were on Firmament - willing him home ( thinking LB had no chance)
The finishing burst of speed to get up was amazing.
The finishing burst of speed to get up was amazing.
Cant believe how such a tough race to work out and the top 2 in the betting come first and second...???
Obviously not tough for Facts - Well done!
With Librisa that acceleration was amazing - very rare you see something like that unless the horse is very special, for me that was the finish of the season - so far!
Obviously not tough for Facts - Well done!
With Librisa that acceleration was amazing - very rare you see something like that unless the horse is very special, for me that was the finish of the season - so far!
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