Kippers Big Race Analysis

Ayr Gold Cup....

Stay away from over 6 in age, off track more than 60 days....
I went through this race and shortlisted Growl (cost me last time when no clear run)now 6/1, Magnus Maximus 12/1, Final Venture 20/1, Poyle Vinnie 25/1, Rivellino 33/1, Sir Robert Cheval 33/1

Looking through form my top 3 who im betting have to be

Growl - only landed place money for me last time after no luck in running and what acceleration when a gap came (although Im not convinced on a winning mark, watch kimberella in the same race in white and green, traveled like a dream but again not the clearest of runs)
Magnus Maximus - lines of form give a decent chance here and mark looks workable so expecting a solid run
Poyle Vinnie - runner up last year and lower mark here.  If reproducing that then the 25/1 is great value imo although the 40/1 yesterday was better !

I tend to stake 100 these days so 40 win Growl at 6/1, 20 eway Poyle Vinnie 25/1 and 20 win Magnus Maximus at 12/1



Starting bank 5000
Staked 100
Closing bank 4900

Good luck over the coming months Kipper, always enjoy your posts.

Especially good luck this weekend with Final Venture & Poyle Vinnie

Thanks Fabulous, looking forward to hopefully a few winners and enjoying everyones analysis and insight over the coming months

Not the best start.....Poyle Vinnie reared up coming out the stalls, Growl ran well enough but found Brando too good (who cost me a packed in the Wokingham) and Magnus a non runner....80 down

Looking at Cambridgeshire next

Huge field and very open race but some angles help here across the last 19 years....

Those rated 105 and higher are 0/48 and only 3 placed so losing GM Hopkins down to Chill The Kite
Aged 7 and higher are 0/63 so losing those too
There were only 2 winners from 255 qualifiers that were outside the first 5 last time out
More than 8 season runs are 0/122 so losing Ode To Evening
16 of the last 19 winners won in the season of winning this race.  The 3 that didnt, one lost by a short head, another was making its seasonal debut so that leaves just the one clear winner that wasnt close to winning (Supaseus)

This gives me a shortlist of Bravo Zolo, Eddystone Rock, Treasury Notes, Examiner, Dolphin Vista, Banksea, Sacred Act, Knight Owl, American Artist (lost by sht hd), Interconnection

All 19 winners came from a prep run at Ascot (3), Curragh (1), Doncaster (4), Goodwood (2), Newbury (5), Newmarket (1), Sandown (1), Thirsk (1), York (1)

Using the above I am down to Bravo Zolo, Banksea, Sacred Act, American Artist all of whom I also shortlisted through analysis so think these will be my 4

Sacred Act 50 @ 8/1
Bravo Zolo 25 @ 16/1
Banksea 25 @ 20/1
American Artist 20 @ 33/1

Opening bank 4920
Staked 120
Closing bank 4800

Last year I "won" the middle group with Examiner at 80/1 (3rd overall) and Portage who "won" the high group (5th overall) so with the loss of Sacred Act and having Bravo Zolo drawn high in 29 and Banksea and American Artist coming down the middle in 12 and 14 I am adding Bastille Day at 40/1 and Zhui Feng at 33/1 drawn in 2 and 4 to the tune of 20 on each

Zhui Feng snatched 5th which helped my personal betting but no joy on the win market I played on here with

Bank 4760....

Cesarewich is a race I backed Grumeti last year which was a great result at 50/1, this year Im struggling a bit but quite like the 4 so Im staking as below

The Cashel Man 40 @ 12/1
Shrewd 20 @ 33/1
Havana Beat 20 @ 33/1
Grumeti 20 @ 33/1

Good luck