Sprint Cup (6f) at Haydock (3rd Sept)

Quiet Reflection is 7/1 and his conqueror in the July Cup, Limato, is 4/1, but the weather forecast is a bit iffy.

If you could be certain of Gd / fast ground Limato would be a bit of a Nap .

Be surprised if Limato runs.

Candy says this will come too soon for Limato - apparently Twilight Son is an intended runner, can see him bouncing back to winning form given a bit of cut in the ground.

Suedois has been knocking on the door and looks a fair price (14/1).

It looks very competitive though -   even if only half of 'em turn up.

A competitive race on paper but quite a bit of rain for next week which could mean a small field in prospect if so.

This is a race you'd be glad you haven't bet ante-post.

Hardly any rain forecast according to BBC 5 day - Limato surely runs and goes off 2/1 or less.

Although Limato @ 5/1 appeals as a nice arbing opportunity I worry a bit about the quick return after the Nunthorpe and also the track - he ran poorly here last year.

I've decided The Tin Man @ 6/1 e/w is the sensible play - just hope for a trouble free passage.

Will also have a small bet on Sole Power if it stays fast - looks like an easy 6f is what he needs these days - though he is probably just not good enough anymore.

the Metcheck forecast shows possibility of about 7mm on Wed and about 3mm on Fri - official going as of today is Good to Soft (Good in places) - all in all even if the Metcheck forecast is right, it should still be fast side of good come Sat as long as he does n't water and then it rains as on top.

I don't trust the BBC forecast one iota - I note they are taking the contract off the Met Office and have appointed MeteoGroup - I'm not surprised, they are hopeless - locally we had weather warning Sat for torrential rain in early hours of Sunday and we did not get a drop of rain, not an isolated example - if they can't get it right within 24 hours, they've no chance 5 days out.

Anyway enough about the weather, I agree with concerns about a quick turnaround for Limato - I'm tempted to have a small interest in Strath Burn who ran well in this last year and has now had 2 runs for Cowell having moved from Charlie Hills - Cowell does seem to have a Midas touch with the sprinters (although to be fair Hills has done well also) - I'm happy to wait for the final decs though.

If she runs Only Mine looks overpriced at 40/1. Her beating of Washington D C gives her place claims , at least, in a wide open race. In her first season she mixed it with the likes of Minding and Ballydoyle and was not disgraced. Definitely worth a long look.

Clerk of course, said rain forecast and then it will be soft side of good. Trainer of Twilight Son, says he won't run if it's firm and Limato will take his place. So I suppose if it's good Twilight runs and Limato doesn't.
  I don't believe anything, day of race for me.

It is good ground at the moment and there is quite a bit of rain expected on fri and sat (20mm+), the question is will it be soft enough for Twilight Son or too soft for Limato to run?

If they get 20mm then Twilight will run and Limato won't.

Total nightmare of an antepost race.

Weather and Only Mine

Clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright reported the going to be good on Tuesday, ahead of the three-day fixture that starts on Thursday, but a little rain is forecast at certain times during the week.

"The ground is good. We were dry yesterday and we're dry today. We're forecast a bit of rain tomorrow then it's set to be dry on Thursday when I think we'll be on the easy side of good," he said.

"There are [b]four millimetres of rain forecast on Friday and two on Saturday[/b].

"I think the reality is we're going to be somewhere on the easy side of good all week."

Those conditions would persuade Irish trainer Joe Murphy to run Only Mine.

The three-year-old filly, who defeated Aidan O'Brien's Washington DC in the Group Three Lacken Stakes at Naas in May, has not raced since finishing third to the Mick Channon-trained Divine in the Ballyogan Stakes at the Curragh at the beginning of June.

"Ground on the easy side of good would suit us," said the County Tipperary handler.

"We'd prefer a bit more rain.

"It's what we're aiming for. We're very happy with her at the moment, but we're just waiting on the a few things before deciding whether to send her.

"If they get the rain tomorrow, we'll discuss it."

The latest BBC forecast (updated at 8.44pm) shows more significant rain on Saturday.

memories of the amazing Lochsong come to light here... and at the prices Dashing Star cannot get ignored here... at 8/1.  Thought he won the Stewards Cup in impressive fashion and I do feel this race will suit him quite well. Obviously big leap to group 1 class but if you look at last seasons Stewards form Magical Memory was only 3/4 length behind the winner...

My main bet in the race... the connection with Lochsong cannot be ignored.

Good Luck.

Morning of the race play for me (@ the earliest) with the uncertainty about the ground?

Limato declared, Twilight Son out, but the forecast still suggesting decent amount of rain from Saturday lunchtime so Limato might yet be a non runner as well (even if it goes good-to-soft according to Candy), so there would be a big Rule 4 to current prices.

The best renewal of this race I can remember:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt8O0HgFjLs

well, looking at the history of the race - this tends to go to up and coming sprinters... and favourites don't have a great record in this.

Favourites in the last 10 years

9th-4th-9th-12th-1st-5th-2nd-5th-1st-11th 

I hope Limato does run as there will be good prices for the others, but happy to take the fav on.

Backed Limato and Quiet Reflection in the right proportions.

Between everything trainer, clerk of course and weather forecast, you'd think it would be Twilight Son not Limato still in race, lucky we're all sceptics.

Limato in and not Twilight Son was a major surprise, but my money is on Quiet Reflection and Suedois more so if 10mm of anticipated precipitation materialises prior to race.

P for rain is said to be 100% and it is a 16:30 kick off.

If the rain comes as forecast there is no way Liamto runs and if it gets soft I'd expect my antepost picks The Tin Man and Sole Power (and a few others probably) to be non runners also.
It looks between Quiet Reflection and Suedios if the forecast is right.

Plenty of rain in the Haydock forecast from mid-day ish onwards.
Ground will be soft, NRs a plenty :-(

Backed Strath Burn ew and Magical Memory win.

Good luck!

G/s now, & still raining, don't expect Limato to run, & if it gets worse The Tin Man would have to be doubtful ??

According to RacingUk, it is chucking it down at Haydock, and it is only 1pm with the race at 4.30pm.

The trainer of Limato must be rueing his premature decision over Twilight Son's withdrawal.

Ground officially soft at Haydock now.

Anybody know why the big race is scheduled as late as 4.30? This in the knowledge that rain is always likely at this meeting and the ground will obviously get worse for the later races. Maybe it's a sponsorship request and seeing as the sponsor is a bookmaker it would be no surprise if they wanted to increase the chances of a market upset. If it was the decision of Tellwright it would be yet another example of this man's incompetence.

The main race of the day is usually the last one on Channel4 and I guess their F1 coverage means they had to start their racing broadcast later than usual so the race times got put back.

Limato and Sole Power both withdrawn so have gone in again on Suideos @ 10/1.

I like Donjuan Triumphant on this ground ran well in france last time.

Thanks uncle. I didn't know about the big race always last race policy of Ch4 and not being a fan of F1 I'd forgotten that was on. Looking at the race times though it could've been organised where only the first race was missed by Ch4 and I remember a while ago they put the first couple of races on the More4 so I don't see why they couldn't have done similar here.

* the More4 channel.

Gordon is overpriced

That was embarrassingly easy for Quiet Reflection for what was supposedly a competitive handicapped race. Another Mecca's Angel in the making next season.

I don't understand your comment impossible? It's not a handicap, it's a Group One. She just gets 3lbs for being a girl plus 2lbs weight for age. No embarrassment for the handicapper, unless you're questioning the allowances which don't seem overly generous to me.

Once the rain fell it became far less competitive and the right 3 horses filled the frame.

I actually think The Tin Man deserves extra credit considering he really doesn't want soft ground and also challenged widest of all where the ground was slowest. He had a very hard race to my eyes though.

While I doubt he would have troubled the winner the decision to pull Twilight Son out on Monday beggars belief.

Reaselheath

Sorry, typo error. I was watching the new 'moneysupermarket' advert whilst typing- bloody hilarious! Nonetheless, it was another easy winner in a supposedly competitive Gp1 race eg Limato (July Cup) and Mecca's Angel (Nunthorpe).

Quiet Reflection is as short as 7/2 for the Champion Sprint - her next intended race - at Newmarket next month with 'Sportsb**** but 6/1 with 2 other bookies which is not bad considering Mecca's Angel and Limato, both Chantilly bound/ground dependent, and possibly unlikely runners.

unclepuncle
03 Sep 16 20:57

I actually think The Tin Man deserves extra credit considering he really doesn't want soft ground and also challenged widest of all where the ground was slowest.


Nice when things work out.