Lowther Stakes

Fair Eva is rated 10lbs ahead of the next best filly unless Lady Aurelia turns up. If running and without Lady Aurelia she surely must be long odds-on on race day, I'd imagine.

would be the race of york lady Aurelia v fair eva

where is LA is she still in the country ?

id be be with LA if she turned up think she will be gone beyond recall

According to her trainer Lady Aurelia is heading to the Prix Morny at Deauville and bypassing the Nunthorpe and York. In this race Fair Eva will be receiving 3lbs from Roly Poly making Fair Eva's 5/4 (from 6/4) outstanding value, if she turns up.

Yes, I understand that Lady Aurelia, who is currently in Keeneland, is likely to come over for the Prix Morny (for which she is 4/9 with Power).  The trainer intends to run Acapulco in the Nunthorpe.  I guess they might decide to leave Lady Aurelia in the Lowther, which takes place three days before the Morny, in the event of very soft ground at Deauville.

Fair Eva deserves to be a warm favourite for the Lowther, but I wouldn't be rushing to back her at 5/4 at this stage.  For one thing, we don't know how she would handle soft ground if the heavens open at the Knavesmire.  At current odds I'd be tempted to back another Frankel filly - the highly regarded Queen Kindly (7/1), who was beaten by greenness in the Albany Stakes and is being targeted at this race by her astute Yorkshire trainer.  She's very fast and could give the favourite something to think about.  Her dam won the Lowther a few years ago.

If it's fast ground then front runners can be difficult to peg back at York - really think Fair Eva wants 7f now, trouble is the only option is the Moyglare.
I'd rather they wait for the Cheveley Park at New'Mkt if she is going to stick to 6f this season.

The Lowther is the obvious race for Fair Eva to go for, followed by either the Moyglare 24 days later or the Cheveley Park Stakes later in the season (if they intend to keep her to 6f), although Wesley Ward plans to run Lady Aurelia in the Cheveley Park, so that could be quite a test for Fair Eva.  She is likely to face a better quality field at York than she encountered at Ascot last time, and she will have to win handsomely to justify her current odds in the Guineas betting.

The Lowther Stakes (6f) is the right race to go for at this juncture follow by the Moyglare (7f) or the Cheveley Park in September; Fair Eva won on good to firm on her two previous races at 6f hence not a problem should ground be the same again, the unknown is soft ground, but on her style of running not an issue, I'd have thought.

I do not think Lady Aurelia will run, and even if she does she'll have to give Fair Eva 3lbs, the same as Roly Poly.

Was just about to post about Queen Kindly and then I read jamesp's post - would only add that she was also given a more sympathetic ride than the first two in the Albany (not a criticism - the jockeys on the 1st and 2nd both incurred whip bans and I would think QK had a nicer race experience which she can progress from - plus a confidence booster at Catterick since). Looking at her embryonic form to date, faster ground than Ascot would probably be a plus too.

I like her chances.

If she is in the sane form as at Royal Ascot then Lady Aurelia would hose up if she ran here instead of the Morny and I would expect Fair Eva to swerve the race in that eventuality.

Maybe they should go for the Gp3 Prix Du Calvados at Deauville over 7f in about 3 weeks time. Much better trial for the Guineas and been won by some decent sorts in the past.

Fair Eva has been entered for the Lowther, Debutante and Moyglare - the latter two in Ireland. Why travel to France when it is not necessary and having to supplement too? The natural progression from the Lowther Stakes is the Moyglare and the period between these two races is an ideal 3 weeks.

With some of the Lowther entries also entered for the Sweet Solera Stakes this weekend eg Easy Victory, Kilmah, Nations Alexander, Bletchley, etc, the field will be significantly reduced come race day I'd expect.

I'm amazed Fair Eva is still odds against unless there is a doubt she might not take part. She's rated 10lbs in front of the rest except Lady Aurelia who is a doubtful runner - Lady Aurelia also has an engagement in the Prix Morny at Deauville 3 days later. In the unlikely event Lady Aurelia runs here she'd need to give 3lbs to Fair Eva and run 1f further than she'd ever been before.

Fair Eva should win if she's as good as the ratings suggest (and she'll need to win handsomely to maintain her current position in the betting for the Guineas), but if the ground is fast I may take a punt on Queen Kindly.  The ground was a bit too slow for her at Ascot, where she also showed a bit of greenness.  Fast ground and the flat York track should suit her ideally.  She's very quick.

Queen Kindly will need to improve at least 10lbs to stand a chance of beating Fair Eva in the Lowther on good ground, all things being equal.

Queen Kindly will need to improve at least 10lbs to stand a chance of beating Fair Eva in the Lowther on good ground, all things being equal.  Only if you accept that the ratings are an accurate measure of their respective performances to date. 

Personally, I believe that the Princess Margaret Stakes form has been a bit overrated (e.g. by the Racing Post ratings expert) and that there may not be a lot between the two Frankel fillies.  Now, having said that, I'm quite prepared to believe that Fair Eva has more to offer: she is a bigger and scopier filly than Queen Kindly and is likely to be the better long-term prospect.  But on quick ground over York's sharp 6f, she could be vulnerable.  We'll see.

Fair Eva had won on good/firm ground twice, and on a line with Roly Poly would have nothing to fear from Queen Kindly who had beaten nothing worth reckoning. In a nutshell, Fair Eva has nothing to fear in the Lowther as it is a less competitive race than the Princess Margaret unless Lady Aurelia shows up, which is extremely unlikely, given the Lowther is over 6f instead of 5f.

If running and all things being equal, the Lowther is Fair Eva's for the taking and she'll probably start odds-on even with Brave Anna running, the conqueror of Queen Kindly.

Queen Kindly at 7/1 is value in my opinion.

I admire your forthrightness, impossible123 , but I think it's slightly more nuanced than you make out.  Roly Poly provides one line of form, but you could also argue (using Kilmah and Dainty Dandy as a guide) that there is very little to choose between Fair Eva and Queen Kindly on form.  Probably the truth lies somewhere in between. 

Lady Aurelia is being aimed at the Gr.1 Prix Morny and Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, both over 6f, so the trip wouldn't be the reason for her likely absence from the Lowther field - it's just that they want to run her in Gr.1 races from now on.

Brave Anna is a useful filly too, of course, but her trainer thinks she will probably benefit from a step up to 7f - perhaps they will choose to run her in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes rather than the Lowther.

I123 - I agree that Fair Eva will be odds-on (4/6 is my guesstimate) if Lady Aurelia stays away.
Whether that makes her 'a value bet' at 6/5 with 2 weeks to go is another matter.
Just ask the backers of Postponed for the KG.

unclepuncle,
Fair Eva is 5/4 presently whereas Postponed was about 1.57 here prior to withdrawal and no value by then but risks if not running which was the case. Hence, I wouldn't be backing Fair Eva after 12th Aug ie post confirmation stage at 4/6 as the value then would be marginalised by a late withdrawal.

jamesp,
The form of Queen Lightly/Brave Anna/Kilmah would give Queen Lightly a good chance against Fair Eva but not Brave Anna/Roly Poly. Anyway, Fair Eva did not break sweat when beating Kilmah/Nations Alexander but showed consistency. For me, the prevailing ground on race day eg soft, is the only unknown but the forecast is for mild weather come York Festival.

Just to clarify: I think the form of this year's Duchess of Cambridge Stakes and Grangecon Stud Stakes (both races won by Roly Poly) is well below usual standard.  I think the form of both those races is about 10lbs behind the Albany Stakes form.

Wonder if Carravaggio running in the Morny might mean Lady Aurelia runs here instead?

Good point.  We'll find out later this week whether Lady Aurelia has been left in the Lowther.  Forfeits for the Morny are on 17 August (the day before the Lowther).

I don't think connections of the filly will be running scared of a colt. The opposite may be true in relation to stallion values

It seems very unlikely that Lady Aurelia will run in the Lowther.  Wesley Ward said yesterday: "Lady Aurelia has one last bit of work here Thursday or Friday and then she will fly over Saturday. Everything has been going awesome. I have been following Caravaggio. If he does go for the Prix Morny, we're ready. If he doesn't, we're ready too. Six furlongs will be no problem either."

Today's comments by trainer of Lady Aurelia concerning her target race and travel plan do indicate it's extremely unlikely she'll be heading to York next week; the confirmation to run is 12th Aug.

An update from Roger Charlton, the trainer of Fair Eva: "Fair Eva worked well this morning and heads for the Lowther at York. George Baker rode her and was very happy. She won well at Ascot, in a good time and the Lowther sits well in the calendar."

Long odds-on beckons in the absence of Lady Aurelia, I'd anticipate.

Despite Queen Kindly and Brave Anna declared their participation is not a definite as the owner of the former is a bit 'cautious' of Fair Eva and not certain to run, and AOB has indicated the latter could go for the Debutante Stake at the Curragh on sunday instead.

Any thoughts on the booking of Pat Smullen to ride Fair Eva next week?  Frankie rode her last time at Ascot and will be at York, so why the change of rider?

Smullen recently won on Time Test at York for the same trainer/owner. 

I guess it's because Frankie is very likely to ride Lady Aurelia in the Cheveley Park Stakes, so they'll need a new jockey for Fair Eva in that race and therefore want Smullen (her likely partner in the Cheveley Park) to take the ride at York.

According to Roger Charlton the Lowther (6f) at York and then the Moyglare (7f) at the Curragh to take on the Irish will be the running plans for Fair Eva but no mention of the Cheveley Park (6f), not surprise as it is another 6f race. I very much looking forward to next thursday race with/out Queen Kindly and/or Brave Anna.

Final declaration today: Fir Eva, Queen Kindly, Roly Poly, Kilmah, Magical Fire, Nation Alexander, Fashion Queen, Clems Fandango, the only absentee is Brave Anna.

Can she be opposed tomorrow? I don't think so,...I think she's the real deal!

Prefer Queen Kindly at 7's myself, Fair Eva is a classy filly, but 4/9 is poor value for her today.

Agree, 2/5 is very skinny, and I think she'll thrive over 8f.

Not a bet for me but Fair Eva should win, don't think it will tell us much though as let's face it the opposition looks crap for this level.

Well done Queen Kindly backers.

Always thought this was the wrong race to aim at with the favourite.

Well it did tell us something after all, like a few of us have said Fair Eva has been overrated but she was even more overrated than we thought.

I remember being struck by how nervous Fahey was when interviewed before she ran in the Albany, he looked like he knew he had a good one.

Where does that leave the fillies. Must be a better one lurking somewhere surely. These dont look like classic winners to me.

Fair Eva was travelling well and beaten fair and square, hopefully, a step up in distance will see her in better stead.

Roly Poly ran an excellent race conceding 3lbs to the winner and 3rd.