Lowther Stakes

Fair Eva is rated 10lbs ahead of the next best filly unless Lady Aurelia turns up. If running and without Lady Aurelia she surely must be long odds-on on race day, I'd imagine.

id be be with LA if she turned up think she will be gone beyond recall

Yes, I understand that Lady Aurelia, who is currently in Keeneland, is likely to come over for the Prix Morny (for which she is 4/9 with Power).  The trainer intends to run Acapulco in the Nunthorpe.  I guess they might decide to leave Lady Aurelia in the Lowther, which takes place three days before the Morny, in the event of very soft ground at Deauville.

Fair Eva deserves to be a warm favourite for the Lowther, but I wouldn't be rushing to back her at 5/4 at this stage.  For one thing, we don't know how she would handle soft ground if the heavens open at the Knavesmire.  At current odds I'd be tempted to back another Frankel filly - the highly regarded Queen Kindly (7/1), who was beaten by greenness in the Albany Stakes and is being targeted at this race by her astute Yorkshire trainer.  She's very fast and could give the favourite something to think about.  Her dam won the Lowther a few years ago.

The Lowther is the obvious race for Fair Eva to go for, followed by either the Moyglare 24 days later or the Cheveley Park Stakes later in the season (if they intend to keep her to 6f), although Wesley Ward plans to run Lady Aurelia in the Cheveley Park, so that could be quite a test for Fair Eva.  She is likely to face a better quality field at York than she encountered at Ascot last time, and she will have to win handsomely to justify her current odds in the Guineas betting.

Was just about to post about Queen Kindly and then I read jamesp's post - would only add that she was also given a more sympathetic ride than the first two in the Albany (not a criticism - the jockeys on the 1st and 2nd both incurred whip bans and I would think QK had a nicer race experience which she can progress from - plus a confidence booster at Catterick since). Looking at her embryonic form to date, faster ground than Ascot would probably be a plus too.

I like her chances.

Fair Eva has been entered for the Lowther, Debutante and Moyglare - the latter two in Ireland. Why travel to France when it is not necessary and having to supplement too? The natural progression from the Lowther Stakes is the Moyglare and the period between these two races is an ideal 3 weeks.

With some of the Lowther entries also entered for the Sweet Solera Stakes this weekend eg Easy Victory, Kilmah, Nations Alexander, Bletchley, etc, the field will be significantly reduced come race day I'd expect.

Fair Eva should win if she's as good as the ratings suggest (and she'll need to win handsomely to maintain her current position in the betting for the Guineas), but if the ground is fast I may take a punt on Queen Kindly.  The ground was a bit too slow for her at Ascot, where she also showed a bit of greenness.  Fast ground and the flat York track should suit her ideally.  She's very quick.

Queen Kindly will need to improve at least 10lbs to stand a chance of beating Fair Eva in the Lowther on good ground, all things being equal.  Only if you accept that the ratings are an accurate measure of their respective performances to date. 

Personally, I believe that the Princess Margaret Stakes form has been a bit overrated (e.g. by the Racing Post ratings expert) and that there may not be a lot between the two Frankel fillies.  Now, having said that, I'm quite prepared to believe that Fair Eva has more to offer: she is a bigger and scopier filly than Queen Kindly and is likely to be the better long-term prospect.  But on quick ground over York's sharp 6f, she could be vulnerable.  We'll see.

Queen Kindly at 7/1 is value in my opinion.

I123 - I agree that Fair Eva will be odds-on (4/6 is my guesstimate) if Lady Aurelia stays away.
Whether that makes her 'a value bet' at 6/5 with 2 weeks to go is another matter.
Just ask the backers of Postponed for the KG.

Just to clarify: I think the form of this year's Duchess of Cambridge Stakes and Grangecon Stud Stakes (both races won by Roly Poly) is well below usual standard.  I think the form of both those races is about 10lbs behind the Albany Stakes form.

Good point.  We'll find out later this week whether Lady Aurelia has been left in the Lowther.  Forfeits for the Morny are on 17 August (the day before the Lowther).

It seems very unlikely that Lady Aurelia will run in the Lowther.  Wesley Ward said yesterday: "Lady Aurelia has one last bit of work here Thursday or Friday and then she will fly over Saturday. Everything has been going awesome. I have been following Caravaggio. If he does go for the Prix Morny, we're ready. If he doesn't, we're ready too. Six furlongs will be no problem either."

An update from Roger Charlton, the trainer of Fair Eva: "Fair Eva worked well this morning and heads for the Lowther at York. George Baker rode her and was very happy. She won well at Ascot, in a good time and the Lowther sits well in the calendar."

Long odds-on beckons in the absence of Lady Aurelia, I'd anticipate.

Any thoughts on the booking of Pat Smullen to ride Fair Eva next week?  Frankie rode her last time at Ascot and will be at York, so why the change of rider?

According to Roger Charlton the Lowther (6f) at York and then the Moyglare (7f) at the Curragh to take on the Irish will be the running plans for Fair Eva but no mention of the Cheveley Park (6f), not surprise as it is another 6f race. I very much looking forward to next thursday race with/out Queen Kindly and/or Brave Anna.

Can she be opposed tomorrow? I don't think so,...I think she's the real deal!

Agree, 2/5 is very skinny, and I think she'll thrive over 8f.

Well done Queen Kindly backers.

Always thought this was the wrong race to aim at with the favourite.

I remember being struck by how nervous Fahey was when interviewed before she ran in the Albany, he looked like he knew he had a good one.