Horse Antepost
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Used to be a great puzzle with "spot the improving 3yo" the main point. In recent times every horse rated 95+ seems to be entered. This year a 3yo will need to be rated about 110 to get in and nothing under 98 has a chance of making the cut.
Logically therefore the contenders will tend to be pretty exposed - you do not get a rating of 99 without running quite a bit. This means finding something from left field, perhaps something that has not run for a while and may be better than their handicap mark for another reason.
One that really does seem to fit is he Mullins beast Thomas Hobson. There are reasons for thinking he could be thrown in. He is likely to get a run and 33/1 antepost is not devoid of value.
Just a thought.
Logically therefore the contenders will tend to be pretty exposed - you do not get a rating of 99 without running quite a bit. This means finding something from left field, perhaps something that has not run for a while and may be better than their handicap mark for another reason.
One that really does seem to fit is he Mullins beast Thomas Hobson. There are reasons for thinking he could be thrown in. He is likely to get a run and 33/1 antepost is not devoid of value.
Just a thought.
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cry, I've went for his stablemate Ivan Grozny ew at 20's. Like the way he won last time, albeit over hurdles, and I think similar tactics would be ideal here.
I have done better with Mutual Regard and Dirar both decent enough.
I am hopeful dear old Thomas will do the trick again this year. He is now 25s and 20s with only one bit of 33s left. I would concede that this is probably due to bookies meanness than weightbof stable money!
I am hopeful dear old Thomas will do the trick again this year. He is now 25s and 20s with only one bit of 33s left. I would concede that this is probably due to bookies meanness than weightbof stable money!
DESERT ENCOUNTER
SHE IS NO LADY
20-1, look fair e.w. bets. Both improving and looking like they can do better than last runs, where things didn't fall right.
SHE IS NO LADY
20-1, look fair e.w. bets. Both improving and looking like they can do better than last runs, where things didn't fall right.
Battersea anyone at 16-1?
Youre gambling on the weather with this one given that fast ground is vital. If he gets it then he will be single figures on the day.
The Ebor was mentioned as a target at the start of the season if he didnt cut it in pattern company. Its difficult to say if he is up to such exulted company given his only British start this year was against subsequent Goodwood Stakes winner Big Orange over a trip short of his best in a Group 2 but as a result his mark is unchanged and as Roger Varian has been on record on more than one occasion suggesting that he will be a better 5yo then its not difficult to assume that this has indeed been the target for somewhile and IMO its a chance worth taking.
Rain, rain, go away...
Youre gambling on the weather with this one given that fast ground is vital. If he gets it then he will be single figures on the day.
The Ebor was mentioned as a target at the start of the season if he didnt cut it in pattern company. Its difficult to say if he is up to such exulted company given his only British start this year was against subsequent Goodwood Stakes winner Big Orange over a trip short of his best in a Group 2 but as a result his mark is unchanged and as Roger Varian has been on record on more than one occasion suggesting that he will be a better 5yo then its not difficult to assume that this has indeed been the target for somewhile and IMO its a chance worth taking.
Rain, rain, go away...
Recent/Past Form
Almost all of the last 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts and posted their highest RPR of last 12 months in one of those.
Weights/ Official Ratings
You are usually looking for a horse carrying between 8-12 to 9-4 (8 winners in the last 10 years and no horse has carried 9-5 or more) and 9 of the last 10 winners rated 92 to 101; the only winner rated higher than 101 was ridden by a 5lb claimer.
However, with the weight frame getting more compressed it looks like horses rated below 100 will likely struggle to get in this year, so you can expect to raise the threshold here.
A key stat for me this year is the last 9 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicaps. So although I tend to agree with cryof truth (‘Logically therefore the contenders will tend to be pretty exposed’), the past winners would appear relatively less exposed than others.
Going on these stats I have gone for the Charlie Appleby pair Qewy and Antiquarium, and Ivan Grozny but have added another arrow in Vent De Force because I think with a good claimer booked he could be really well handicapped if back to form.
Betilyerded- I had a good look at the Roger Varian pair but he has had very few runners just lately and that would put me off backing the stable at present.
Good luck.
Almost all of the last 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts and posted their highest RPR of last 12 months in one of those.
Weights/ Official Ratings
You are usually looking for a horse carrying between 8-12 to 9-4 (8 winners in the last 10 years and no horse has carried 9-5 or more) and 9 of the last 10 winners rated 92 to 101; the only winner rated higher than 101 was ridden by a 5lb claimer.
However, with the weight frame getting more compressed it looks like horses rated below 100 will likely struggle to get in this year, so you can expect to raise the threshold here.
A key stat for me this year is the last 9 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicaps. So although I tend to agree with cryof truth (‘Logically therefore the contenders will tend to be pretty exposed’), the past winners would appear relatively less exposed than others.
Going on these stats I have gone for the Charlie Appleby pair Qewy and Antiquarium, and Ivan Grozny but have added another arrow in Vent De Force because I think with a good claimer booked he could be really well handicapped if back to form.
Betilyerded- I had a good look at the Roger Varian pair but he has had very few runners just lately and that would put me off backing the stable at present.
Good luck.
See what you mean about Varian just now Madhu. He had a 11/10 fav last of 5 at Wndsor last night, only runner of day. See how todays 2 get on.
The other one I was interested in at a price is Prescotts Amour Du Nuit, who also needs good or faster ground.
Take out his recent runs in pattern company and his record in his last 7 handicaps reads well, including a win at York last backend.
Those with a long memory will remember him winning in with Hasten To Add back in the day, since when hes had a further 6 runners in the race finishing 2nd, 4th (twice) and 3 unplaced - all going off in single figures, 4 of them fav.
This one doesnt help himself by pulling too hard but hopefully if they go a good clip that would help and I think theres a big handicap in him and 25-1 seems reasonable.
(as an aside, its interesting to see how handicapping has changed. Hasten To Add was 2nd at Royal Ascot off 89, 2nd in The Northumberland Plate off 89 then won the Ebor off 92. Litttle wonder Prescott used to clean up in all the big handicaps!!)
The other one I was interested in at a price is Prescotts Amour Du Nuit, who also needs good or faster ground.
Take out his recent runs in pattern company and his record in his last 7 handicaps reads well, including a win at York last backend.
Those with a long memory will remember him winning in with Hasten To Add back in the day, since when hes had a further 6 runners in the race finishing 2nd, 4th (twice) and 3 unplaced - all going off in single figures, 4 of them fav.
This one doesnt help himself by pulling too hard but hopefully if they go a good clip that would help and I think theres a big handicap in him and 25-1 seems reasonable.
(as an aside, its interesting to see how handicapping has changed. Hasten To Add was 2nd at Royal Ascot off 89, 2nd in The Northumberland Plate off 89 then won the Ebor off 92. Litttle wonder Prescott used to clean up in all the big handicaps!!)
betilyerded –
You got me thinking of the distant past. As a 4yo the huge grey Hasten To Add was one of my main horses that year. I was gutted when he lost in the Bessborough to an Ian Balding horse that was unsighted after that, and even now after watching the Northumberland Plate again today on U tube, it is a miserable experience. I only got my money back on him in the Ebor. Those were the days when you were looking for horses at the bottom of the handicap in races like the Ebor and the Plate that were rated in the high 80’s/ early 90’s and getting in off a weight around 8-4!
All this comparable analysis had me re-evaluate the chances of the Plate winner (off 99) Antiquarium. His fairly lightly raced unexposed profile includes a decent run in the Melrose over the CD from the car park draw and ridden wide until into the straight. With the likely 7lb weight-frame top to bottom, I can’t see him being out of the frame.
Moreover, I hope I am not going to make the same mistake as I did with Portage in the Hunt Cup but I’m trading out with Ivan Grozny, with Turtle Bowl as his sire and only having won with give in the ground, he will be in unknown territory if the anticipated heatwave leads to fast ground at York, even though Willie Mullins says he is “not worried about the ground at all, whichever way it comes.”
You got me thinking of the distant past. As a 4yo the huge grey Hasten To Add was one of my main horses that year. I was gutted when he lost in the Bessborough to an Ian Balding horse that was unsighted after that, and even now after watching the Northumberland Plate again today on U tube, it is a miserable experience. I only got my money back on him in the Ebor. Those were the days when you were looking for horses at the bottom of the handicap in races like the Ebor and the Plate that were rated in the high 80’s/ early 90’s and getting in off a weight around 8-4!
All this comparable analysis had me re-evaluate the chances of the Plate winner (off 99) Antiquarium. His fairly lightly raced unexposed profile includes a decent run in the Melrose over the CD from the car park draw and ridden wide until into the straight. With the likely 7lb weight-frame top to bottom, I can’t see him being out of the frame.
Moreover, I hope I am not going to make the same mistake as I did with Portage in the Hunt Cup but I’m trading out with Ivan Grozny, with Turtle Bowl as his sire and only having won with give in the ground, he will be in unknown territory if the anticipated heatwave leads to fast ground at York, even though Willie Mullins says he is “not worried about the ground at all, whichever way it comes.”
Weather reports would suggest a warm dry week (next week)
Had a few small interests on here about Battersea @ 19.5 he needs it on the fast side, solid chance if so.
In the decs atm, but not in the betting? Father Christmas would be an interesting running, if running?
Had a few small interests on here about Battersea @ 19.5 he needs it on the fast side, solid chance if so.
In the decs atm, but not in the betting? Father Christmas would be an interesting running, if running?
Yes I see that? Must think he needs a run to take the freshness out of him, he can be a bit keen when fresh Battersea, if he lines up on Sat @ Newbury? Interesting prep if taking in both races? only a week apart?
Madhu flagged up the stable form of Varian earlier in the week and subsequent results have done nothing to allay the fears. They clearly are not firing just now and for that reason Im leaving Battersea alone unless theres a big turnaround over the next seven days.
I backed Battersea for this AP but see he is running at Newbury tomorrow so can only assume he is not an intended runner. This horse has become a curse for me, as has the Varian yard when backing AP (Postponed in King George). Nemoralia being pulled out a double whammy on the AP front 
After passing up on Ivan Grozy I had another look and think I have found a late gem. Nice price too.
Ordinarily you would discount any horse 7yo+ as you had to go back to Sea Pigeon (9yo) in 1979 for the last winner in that age-group but that changed last year with the 7yo Litigant. Litigant came into last years Ebor from a long break after having won the All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes the previous year (April 14) beating the Amanda Perrrett trained Arch Villain, and it is the latter that has drawn my interest here.
Arch Villain happened to miss the whole of 2015 through tendon trouble but returned early on this year as good as ever to win twice at Lingfield. Unplaced in the Plate and at Goodwood behind Elidor, he won recently over 2m at the Shergar Cup meeting beating Sir Mark Prescott’s progressive stayer Sea Of Heaven (receiving 10lb). He is a prominent racer who stays really well and has 10 wins from 12f to 2m in 26 starts, so certainly knows how to win races as he showed last time out where he led early and came back again after Sea Of Heaven led him into the straight.
Looking at the declarations it would appear that a 4lb penalty for his Ascot win will put him on 9-5 and therefore guaranteed a run. Two Luca Cumani horses have won carrying penalties in the last dozen or so years, however, I fancy connections may engage Kieran Shoemark to alleviate most of the penalty and claimers have ridden three winners in recent years. Moreover, Coombelands Stables have a good history in the race.Backed at 34+ on here for 2 large ones.
Ordinarily you would discount any horse 7yo+ as you had to go back to Sea Pigeon (9yo) in 1979 for the last winner in that age-group but that changed last year with the 7yo Litigant. Litigant came into last years Ebor from a long break after having won the All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes the previous year (April 14) beating the Amanda Perrrett trained Arch Villain, and it is the latter that has drawn my interest here.
Arch Villain happened to miss the whole of 2015 through tendon trouble but returned early on this year as good as ever to win twice at Lingfield. Unplaced in the Plate and at Goodwood behind Elidor, he won recently over 2m at the Shergar Cup meeting beating Sir Mark Prescott’s progressive stayer Sea Of Heaven (receiving 10lb). He is a prominent racer who stays really well and has 10 wins from 12f to 2m in 26 starts, so certainly knows how to win races as he showed last time out where he led early and came back again after Sea Of Heaven led him into the straight.
Looking at the declarations it would appear that a 4lb penalty for his Ascot win will put him on 9-5 and therefore guaranteed a run. Two Luca Cumani horses have won carrying penalties in the last dozen or so years, however, I fancy connections may engage Kieran Shoemark to alleviate most of the penalty and claimers have ridden three winners in recent years. Moreover, Coombelands Stables have a good history in the race.Backed at 34+ on here for 2 large ones.
No Arch Villain Madhu, No Amour Du Nuit, not sure what to make of Battersea last weekend. Havent backed anything yet and may not at this rate though the 25-1 Battersea surely wont be there should he run on Saturday.
Looking v. tricky.
Looking v. tricky.
betilyerded-
It's like I've walked through a kin minefield this year so far with my AP bets. I'm getting out of this race for a loss as not had much luck in this previously anyway. As for Battersea, he is a regular loser for me since 2014!
It's like I've walked through a kin minefield this year so far with my AP bets. I'm getting out of this race for a loss as not had much luck in this previously anyway. As for Battersea, he is a regular loser for me since 2014!
Meant to be some rain around at the end of the week too
Ive gone Seamour 14/1, Seismos 25/1 and Blue Rambler 40/1 with a saver to cover stakes on Ivan 7/1
I really like SEAMOUR at 14/1 - think he was unlucky in the Northumberland plate.. he went way too soon for glory think the jockey totally misjudged it, his last run wasn't great so happy to put a line through that..
The other that interests me is ORIENTAL FOX 33/1
The other that interests me is ORIENTAL FOX 33/1
The ground is going to change, if 2moros & Sat weather forecasts are right, plenty of rain coming to York by mid-day 2moro, bloody weather :-(
I'll side with The Twisler now, and also considering Shrewd & Oceanographer.
Wow.
A wide range of opinions which shows just what a trappy race this is.
The rain doesnt seem to have made too much difference so far, just depends how much more they get.
Ive eventually gone for Battersea at 25's in the first time hood as the stable appear to be firing again (their other entry in the race at the 5 day stage Barzanti won the opener at York today) and there hopefully wont be too much rain overnight.
Always like a wide draw in the Ebor too.
Good luck pin-stickers
A wide range of opinions which shows just what a trappy race this is.
The rain doesnt seem to have made too much difference so far, just depends how much more they get.
Ive eventually gone for Battersea at 25's in the first time hood as the stable appear to be firing again (their other entry in the race at the 5 day stage Barzanti won the opener at York today) and there hopefully wont be too much rain overnight.
Always like a wide draw in the Ebor too.
Good luck pin-stickers
She is no lady is improving,if they get more rain, think it will go close.
tony martins ran well in opener today, can see him having a hand in ebor too
Uncle puncle.
Im joining you with Top Tug at 16's.
Form is stacking up nicely (Barzanti,Sagaciously)and King certainly likes to win these staying races though thing anything could win it!
Im joining you with Top Tug at 16's.
Form is stacking up nicely (Barzanti,Sagaciously)and King certainly likes to win these staying races though thing anything could win it!
Raining heavily at York 2nite, it's going to be on the soft side 2moro.
Liking the look of Heartbreak City & She is no lady, will need to get the trip well 2moro.
Liking the look of Heartbreak City & She is no lady, will need to get the trip well 2moro.
Interesting to hear CoC at York this morning saying they've moved the rail, meaning the distance of the Ebor has been reduced by some 32 yards ! Lots of races are won and lost in less distance
Back from summer retreat and summer recess. Hoping each way on Shrewd, Galaxy Rock and Fun Mac might yield a profit.
Quick Jack @ 12/1
Top Tug @ 18/1
Havana Beat @ 55/1
My 3 against the field.
Top Tug @ 18/1
Havana Beat @ 55/1
My 3 against the field.
Well done Facts,Mille and Morpeph Mackem (very prescient!)
Cracking ride by young McNamara, was hoping he would hide his light under a bushel before he rides my Fahey fancy in the Ayr Gold Cup next month.
Battersea landed the e/w part of my bet but Top Tug unsighted.
Oceanographer the one to take out of the race. Wonder if he will be kept for the November handicap?
Cracking ride by young McNamara, was hoping he would hide his light under a bushel before he rides my Fahey fancy in the Ayr Gold Cup next month.
Battersea landed the e/w part of my bet but Top Tug unsighted.
Oceanographer the one to take out of the race. Wonder if he will be kept for the November handicap?
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