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sintonian
19 Jul 16 21:53
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,673 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
7/4 Galieleo Gold
5/2 The Gurkha
10/1 Belardo
10/1 Awtaad
10/1 Ribchester
12/1 bar

Latest news is Belardo will not run, heads to France.

I have taken a chance that Ribchester runs for Godolphin. They do have others horses entered, like Toormore and Dutch Connection, but T is not good enough and DC goes for the Lennox Stakes over 7f.

Ribchester needs to find nearly 3 lengths on GG from the Guineas which will be hard to do, but at the prices...10/1 he looks an ew bet worth the risk. He was very impressive in the Jersey Stakes under a penalty and according to trainer he's improved a lot. There is a chance he'll run in the Lennox Stakes too, as he'd have a favourites chance in that, but again, Godolphin have several entries in the race including current Fav, Home of the Brace, and they'll have to split them up.

Prendergast has said Awtaad could run here or in France, but I personally reckon they'll supplement Mutakayyef.

I also wonder if Rouget will supplement Zelzal?? He'd be a close second favourite if so.

Ribchester would need to prove himself on Good to Firm ground but he's by Iffraj and they ''usually'' handle fast ground.
Pause Switch to Standard View Sussex Stakes 27th July.
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Report sintonian July 19, 2016 10:00 PM BST
FWIW, I will have a saver on Ribchester at 11/2 for the Lennox Stakes just in case he runs there.
Report liberator of the oppressed July 20, 2016 6:40 AM BST
Sint did you watch Mr Fahey on ATR something along lines he and Mr Ferguson thought would be placed if not very competitive Queen Anne but go very close Jersey and that informed decision making and I thought won extremely well. This is a jolly good horse loads of potential but cannot see anything getting past The G with a positive ride.
Report unclepuncle July 20, 2016 3:04 PM BST
Positive vibes from Fahey after this mornings gallop - see Sporting Life website. 12/1 on here for small money still.

Personally I'd be worried about the going (assuming it's proper fast summer ground).
Report sintonian July 20, 2016 9:27 PM BST
Ribchester taken out of the Lennox so Sussex it is.

The going is a concern Uncle but I don't think they'd run him if he could handle it. He has probably galloped on it at home.
Report harry callaghan July 20, 2016 9:38 PM BST
i also like this ribchester sint but i have serious reservations about fast ground with him but also a mile, i was kinda hoping they might drop him in trip for races like the maurice de gueest and the haydock sprint cup, a watching brief for this race for me but a nice pot is in him and he is going the right way
Report gpz6316 July 20, 2016 9:40 PM BST
well im flommoxed by the gurkha . i thought he was the best 3yo colt and went down with him . is hawkbill a superstar ? my impression on g . g was that he lacked a bit of scope but its not been borne out and the trainer said that hes strengthening and getting better . so logic dictates gg whom performs on the day and then the gut says stick to what i thought  . neither are of interest from a betting perspective to me , however , as theyre 2-1 ish each . on a turning course with undulations it favours a horse getting a mile that wouldnt , say at ascot . a traveller . so limato is ringing my bell , i dont know if hes intended ( entered in the celebration mile late august and the sprint cup early september ) but only this entry for this period  suggesting that they intend to run him . i will go with him
Report impossible123 July 20, 2016 10:18 PM BST
I believe the trainer of Limato has stated Limato is likely to skip the Sussex Stakes and will be aimed at the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville instead. However, Kevin Prendergast, the trainer of Awtaad, would like to run here despite indicating earlier the Prix Jacque le Marois would be Awtaad's next target but no decision has been made yet.

If the ground stays good I'd go with The Gurkha to avenge his defeat by Galileo Gold in the St James's Palace Stakes.
Report gpz6316 July 20, 2016 11:01 PM BST
i think they would make a mistake going to france 123 . on difficult tracks it really does help the non stayer bigtime and hes guaranteed decent groung and a big pot . wots not to like
Report impossible123 July 20, 2016 11:13 PM BST
I believe the Sussex has come too soon post Darley Cup victory and maybe the French race over 6.5f suits better too than the Sussex 8f.
Report gpz6316 July 20, 2016 11:13 PM BST
6.5f at deauville is to be liked also however but id go english way
Report gpz6316 July 20, 2016 11:18 PM BST
doubt its too soon , sprinters can run very frequently as it doesnt really do them in . just look at it from a human point. a marathon runner can only give his/her best 2/3 or 4 times a year ,but ,a sprinter can give much more
Report gpz6316 July 20, 2016 11:20 PM BST
just imagine how you would feel after a 100m race . you could do it again on numerous times, but ,a hard 1500m upwards and you need recouperation and to be built back up
Report impossible123 July 20, 2016 11:23 PM BST
I was only repeating what his trainer had said.
Report gpz6316 July 20, 2016 11:39 PM BST
ya thanks 123 love to bounce off ya and to hear your  valid opinions goodnight
Report Graeme83 July 21, 2016 9:25 AM BST
I'd save Limato for the breeders cup mile. That's if they want another shot at the trip.
Report sintonian July 23, 2016 6:08 PM BST
Looks a good renewal
Report Meyer Lansky July 24, 2016 1:29 PM BST
Referring to something posted above,Luke Harvey
Did a visit to Fahey's stable.It was filmed after Royal
Ascot.They did a sequence next to Ribchester and
The trainer did say words to the effect of wanting to
Take on the horses who beat him in the 2000 Guineas
Again and that Ribchester was a " proper racehorse "
Furthermore on Sunday Forum Jim McGrath who does
Work for Godolphin, when asked about the Sussex Stakes
Said Ribchester.
So putting one and one together and hoping to get two
For a change I think they are expecting a big run from him
Report Graeme83 July 24, 2016 10:36 PM BST
I'd be interested in awtaad.
Report impossible123 July 24, 2016 11:32 PM BST
Me too especially at 8/1 - he was 9/4 last time, I believe.
Report unclepuncle July 25, 2016 6:50 PM BST
Bit of rain forecast for Wednesday so should be perfect ground.

I'd expect The Gurkha to come out on top of the SJP runners. Ribchester is the fly in the ointment, fancy him as a back to lay as can see him cruising 2 out.
Report FELTFAIR July 25, 2016 7:08 PM BST
Backed Ribchester each way and Galileo Gold win.
Report impossible123 July 25, 2016 7:17 PM BST
Awtaad has beaten Galileo Gold and The Gurkha ought to have beaten Galileo Gold in the SJP last time. Hence, I think the race would be between Awtaad and The Gurkha.
Report go-all-in July 25, 2016 8:00 PM BST
Pankhurst the value at 50/1 imo, though I may be losing my marbles.

Looks a cracking race, can't wait for this one.
Report ffs July 25, 2016 8:04 PM BST
will be interesting to see TG run on faster ground - out of a Danehill Dancer mare he made good work on softer - can he step up on faster !?

there's a lot of softer ground form in his pedigree, so that was no surprise how he handled it,

but if he's to be top-class he needs to find a couple of pounds for the better ground,

will watch with interest
Report the bloob July 25, 2016 9:43 PM BST
not sure how Ribchester will handle the quicker ground, but if he does handle it then 9/1 is huge
Report Figgis July 27, 2016 2:57 PM BST
Looks a weak renewal to me but quite competitive and very interesting nonetheless. I thought the Guineas was the worst for a few years and despite Galileo Gold going on to win the SJP I still hold that view. After that race a lot of people thought The Gurkha ought to have won but I wasn't completely convinced, I thought he ran within just a pound of his 'French Guineas' win. He showed nothing special in the Eclipse, although many have excused that performance I don't believe this horse is in the same class as O'Brien's previous Sussex winners. I backed Awtaad in the SJP but thought he had no excuse and in hindsight I reckon I overrated him at the Curragh and underestimated how far GG ran below par.

Before the Jersey Stakes Fahey said Ribchester had improved, often these public statements from connections prove worthless compared to weight of money but on rating the race I agree with the trainer, I have Ribchester improving a big 11lbs on his Guineas run. I have him 1lb ahead of Galileo Gold, which isn't a great deal but at this price it's a no brainer who the bet is. I also believe that most horses only run to peak form twice in a year and GG has done that already so I wouldn't be surprised if he's a bit below his best here. Hopefully I haven't overrated Ribchester in the same way I did Awtaad as he looks a cracking bet here and I have backed him accordingly.
Report Howellsy July 27, 2016 3:24 PM BST
Good shout Figgis - not sure if you go each way. Front pair had run of race so really not much between the front three at all. I didn't think Rib would see out the trip.
Report Swagger July 27, 2016 3:47 PM BST
Nice call Figgis. Have to say that before the race it looked the worse renewal since Court Masterpiece won and I think that was backed up by the actual result. I'm unsure as to why Ribchester was ridden to get the trip as based on his breeding he has stamina coming out of ears and Goodwood is such a tight track that there was no reason to think he wouldn't get the trip well given how well he ran in the 2000 Guineas - even though it was an average classic as Figgis alluded to.
Report Figgis July 27, 2016 3:50 PM BST
Sometimes I do, Howellsy, but this time only had some on the place to part cover the stake, so not as big a loss as it could've been but still a loss. Disappointing there was no early pace although that was always possible. Not sure what to make of the race at this stage. Some people might think Ribchester only closed the front two down when the race was virtually over, possibly so, but I wouldn't rule out he could go even closer off a stronger early pace.
Report Figgis July 27, 2016 4:18 PM BST
Swagger, as the horse has showed a decent turn of foot I can understand them not wanting to do too much with him early on. It was unfortunate he couldn't get a run when needed then when finally switched he appeared to take a little time to really pick up. I think all of that would've been avoided given a decent early pace. As Toormore is in the same ownership and has on occasions made the running before it would've made sense to use him to set a reasonable gallop while still running on his merits. That is the kind of tactic Godolphin would've planned in the years when they had their act together, hopefully they will have learned to avoid a similar pace situation in his next race but I wouldn't bank on it. As we've said, not great form but difficult to see where any opposition is going to come from to challenge the front three.
Report impossible123 July 27, 2016 4:26 PM BST
Ribchester ran a fabulous race however, I do not think he'll beat the front two given same conditions with/out a pacemaker unless it is another year after he's made massive improvement but certainly not this year, in my opinion.
Report Figgis July 27, 2016 5:16 PM BST
Had a quick look at the Turftrax sectionals. Given the slow final time of the race, the fact that Ribchester ran each of the last three furlongs quicker than the front two, including marginally the fastest single split of the three, and, importantly for me, the powerful visual impression I got from him at the finish I have to believe that Ribchester would finish ahead in a truly run race, let's hope there's a rematch.
Report sintonian July 27, 2016 8:30 PM BST
I wont say he was unlucky but probably unfortunate in the way the race panned out...Ribchester looks a horse going places.
Report brigust1 July 30, 2016 10:36 AM BST
Good call Figgis. I never had a bet because I thought Goodwood may be too sharp for the 1st and 2nd and thought Ribchester was a 7f horse. I doubt I would have backed the winner anyway. Looking ahead I think the Irish horse is going up in trip again so may not meet the 2nd again and for Ribchester to win I think he will need a similarly sharp track or/and fast ground. Can't see him beating Frankie's horse at Ascot if that is where they are going.
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