Juddmonte International 17th August and Hawkbill ..

I keep saying it but Time Test on quick going will take some stopping judged on his run in poor conditions in the Eclispe.

Hawkbill would only receive 8lbs from Time Test compared to the 11lbs he received in the Eclipse. While that wouldn't be enough to reverse the form I have Time Test's previous run 3lbs higher on faster ground so could see him reversing the form on better ground. It looks like it should be a tougher race than the KG. Hawkbill has made big improvement already but think he'll probably need to continue that progression. For me it's the wrong choice, the KG is potentially an easier race with Postponed beatable having to give him 12lbs. Unless they think Hawkbill needs more time for recovery or they're really doubtful he'll get the 12f I don't think they should be running scared of Postponed.

Hawkbill is a good progressive horse nevertheless, if the ground for this race is good and no worse, and despite Hawkbill beating a top miler in The Gurkha I'd side with Time Test, without hesitation, solely because Hawkbill outstayed The Gurkha who was running beyond 1 mile on soft going for the 1st time. I also believe that could be the reason Godolphin is aiming Hawkbill for the Juddemonte and not the King George next weekend despite the better wfa advantage in the latter.

I don't understand that reasoning, if as you say Hawkbill outstayed the others and is likely to face Time Test at York on better ground which would give the latter a chance to reverse the form, it's a race that requires more a show of speed than stamina, then why should they choose York?

figgis,

I firmly believe Hawkbill outstayed The Gurkha (only) in the Eclipse due to the soft ground - the ground was also an impediment to Time Test there too. However, if the ground was good (at least) in the Juddmonte Time Test will avenge his Eclipse defeat by Hawkbill given another 3lbs wfa advantage. But I also believe Hawkbill will not be as effective over 12f in the KG against Postponed in spite of the wfa advantage given 12f is the latter's optimum trip. I hope Godolphin have had a change of heart over the weekend and supplement Hawkbill tomorrow for the KG which I agree is a softer option than the Juddmonte.

Oh ok, didn't know you think Hawkbill unlikely to stay 12f.

Figgis

I think connections have reservations about 12f for Hawkbill too or least this year because Hawkbill has another engagement that week ie the Great Voltigeur (12f) but they seem to be leaning towards the Juddemonte instead as intimated by Charlie Appleby on tv yesterday.

This is all about Time Test and whether or not the ground is Good.  Good or better he wins imo.

The Gurkha would be favourite if he takes his place after a promising Sussex run.

Looks like being aimed here boys and girls first bit out of the way no change in price mind you. Still got the utmost confidence.

If The Gurkha gets his revenge on Galileo Gold in the Sussex Stakes next wednesday at Goodwood I cannot see him ever running over 10f again because to be crowned the Champion Miler is hugely prestigious and financially rewarding to his connections.

On good/firm ground with Time Test and Hawkbill (both 7/2) in the field the former will have an excellent chance of redressing the Eclipse form as he's proven on the ground unlike the latter.

I'm already loaded with big big bombs bombs on The G at 4/1 impossiblechappie for The Sussex. My only concern is ran like a dog last time. That might be the pom pom clouding my judgemet. i'm an all in sort of guy. Might have a dfay off to tootle down next Wednesday. oi oi they used to sout at the dog tr4ack oi oi my son.

Oi Oi. PS backed that one of Mr Faheys at Beverley for a few quid. Paid for the pomaigne (probably ppor spellling).

loto

I'm loaded on The Gurkha too for the Sussex Stakes but I hope Awtaad is not the party pooper should he run.

Imagine Time Test, Hawkbill, Postponed and Minding....what a race, if so!

I've got me watering can out impossible.

Time Test had to battled hard to win 3/4 lengths from Mondialiste who, when he has his conditions is no mug. However, it was on the face of a bit underwhelming from TT. Fwiw,  Pat Smullen felt the horse was still immature and he was in front way too soon. Expects him to improve for the experience of the race and when the pace is stronger/when he gets a longer lead.

I know he won and I would n't necessarily knock him for being merely workmanlike but I do wonder if the long straight at York will play to Time Test's strengths in a Group 1?

His best win visually was in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot last year when she showed a blinding turn of foot. York strikes me as more of a grinders' track and I think that's at least part of the reason why Golden Horn got turned over last year. I suppose Wings of Desire showed a turn of foot to win the Dante and, of course, Frankel a few years back.

Maybe it just looks more of a grind when they come up the centre of the track. Maybe I'm over thinking it.

I get that impression too. Not sure York is his best track.

AOB: "USAR is being aimed at the Juddmonte International race."

It just gets better and better.

Impossible123

Nothing to do with the race but I can't help think that you are on course to be the most prolific poster I've ever seen. You've only been around since Sep '15 but you have already clocked up 1623 posts in 11 months whilst its taken me just 15 years to knock up 2700 +. My rate is around 14-15 posts a month whilst yours is 10 times that.

I would have thought that would be impossible, impossible 123.

You will need to go even faster to catch Sintonian however!

sintonian,

I have, haven't I? Presently, this is a hobby I've just undertaken but hopefully in years to come, it would give me a small positive return as well if the present enthusiasm/buzz does not diminish with time.

I'm lucky in that my profession allows me to post; I'm mainly interested in horse racing and non-handicaps, unless it is a fun bet.

I have the same account for 12 years.

Interesting comments from Roger Charlton today...he reckons he left Time Test a gallop short yesterday owing to the fact he gave him longer to recover from the Soft ground Eclipse.

Postponed and USAR have been in massive demand today and is as short as 2/1 and 5/1 respectively, unlike Time Test who is on the drift; Minding is too being backed into 5/1 now (here) and 'fav' for the'Arc'.

Minding wont be running.

Really trappy race to be playing antepost. Not keen on Time Test or Hawkbill and if it cuts up badly then Postponed could go off odds-on, but equally he might not make the race at all. O'Brien has a strong hand but with so many options it's hard to go in now.

Looking at the betting only Wings of Desire at 33/1 strikes me as a possible value bet but will hold fire.

Wings Of Desire has been reported could be aimed at the Juddmonte or the Prix Niel - both 10f - yet he's been backed into favouritism (here) for the Leger.

USAR is as short as 4/1 for this race; Minding is 5/1 for the 'Arc'.

Prix Niel is run over 2400 metres (12f). All trials & Arc run at Chantilly this year.

Pom pom in the glasses wodge on at 4/1 on The G in The Sussex.

where did AO'B say USAR will run ? I've seen it mentioned but no source,

the last I saw was after racing at Leopardstown where he said,

“US Army Ranger is getting ready to come back,” O’Brien confirmed. “We’ve been very happy with him. He had a break and is just back in. We could look at The Curragh with him–maybe the Royal Whip.”

Post-Sussex I'd have to say he seemed to be in two minds as to whether it would be a race for TG, he slightly dismissed the PJM as 'the race in France' .. and obviously the International is a tremendous race to win - I don't know about USAR being thrown in that deep first time back ..

(AO'B also said Found and Hit it a Bomb would also be starting back dropped down in Grade shortly)

I have a suspicion, unless someone can show where this "USAR -> International" story is coming from, that he'll also drop back in Grade and quite possibly TG will take the run

Race does not look suitable for USAR at all...where are the quotes?

ffs

Yes, AOB did say the next race for USAR could be the Royal Whip however, AOB mentioned USAR was being aimed at the Juddmonte in a post race win interview of the Irish Oaks (I think) - I shall try and find it. Hence, USAR's short price in this race, and possibly resaon for the drift in the 'Arc' unlike Minding whose price has contracted for that race. As such I think AOB would have maybe 3 for the French race eg Minding, Order of St George and Found.

AOB had been reported to say by several racing sources US Army Ranger was targeting this race post the win of Highland Reel in the King George & QE Stakes last saturday.

can't have USAR for this looks like he needs every yard of 12f

A_T

I can see why Coolmore are aiming USAR in this race because USAR has a high cruising speed and can quicken. I also think they are beginning to realise USAR will not (never) beat Harzand over 12f; they possibly also reckon USAR just about stays 12f given the evidence of his runs in the Chester Vase and the Epsom Derby. Hence, it would not surprise me if USAR is scratched from the 'Arc' and replaced by Minding instead.

"a high cruising speed and can quicken"

does that actually mean anything? sounds like something people say to hype up a stallion. a horse is either fast enough to win a race or it isn't.

A_T

USAR is a good horse but just not as good as Harzand over 12f, his most likely conqueror in the 'Arc' should both run. It is also a fact that had Harzand not run in the Epsom Derby then USAR would have been deemed a good winner, and most likely be the 'fav' for the 'Arc' now.

With Harzand and Postponed around/best over 12f, Time Test not impressive over 10f, The Gurkha barely staying 10f, Found not good enough, etc, Coolmore needs a horse for this distance and USAR is the best candidate available, in my opinion. There is also no financial incentive to run USAR over the Leger distance - doubt in his stamina - and Idaho, I reckon. Hence, it does make commercial sense for Coolmore to target this race with USAR.

Sounds like a load of nonsense. St Nicholas Abbey was best at 12f, it was blatantly his best trip, but they tried 10f several times to see if they struck lucky and got a Group 1 on his CV over that trip. They're do the same with USAR and personally I see no reason at all why he cannot beat Harzand over 12f. He got pretty close last time despite not have the best draw. There is no way Coolmore would give up after 1 attempt.

With due respect it might be nonsense to you but it makes absolute business sense to me; if I was part of Coolmore that's where I'd be heading, why?

1) there is nothing to lose trying USAR over 10f
2) why risk another drubbing by Harzand? USAR was clearly outstayed in the Epsom Derby and the manner of his Chester Vase
   victory probably was a good guide to his stamina limitation
3) Minding would be a credible substitute or at least equal in a match with Harzand over 12f
4) this year's Juddmonte is a not top notch and a much easier race to win than the 'Arc'
5) if acquitting himself well in the Juddmonte there is the Irsh Champion Stakes waiting
6) Coolmore already have three 'Arc' possibles in Minding, Order Of St George and Found
7) I just cannot see USAR beating Harzand, Minding and Order Of St George on known form

It'd not surprise me if USAR has run his last race over 12f in England and Ireland.

surprised to hear tabor say usar is going for the juddmonte, cant see him getting within a furlong of postponed over 10f

A drubbing? Seriously? 3/4 length is not a drubbing in anyone's book. And that's without the finer details of who got the better passage in the Derby.

From a business point of view I totally see why they would run USAR over 10f, but i'm saying they tried it with SNA and he never got close. USAR may be a better horse, it is still early days with him, but they should have a crack at the Arc as there is nothing to be frightened of in the race, it's currently 6/1 the field.

And OOSG is nowhere near Arc standard. We had the same sh1t every year with **** when he won the Ascot Gold Cup. Just more hype for the breeders benefit.

Y E A T S

I still remember the run of El Gran Senor in the 1984 Derby where he cruised up and led from the 2.5f marker till just before the finishing line and outstayed by Secreto who'd been vigorously ridden from the 3f marker from home.

I do not dispute the fact USAR had a bad run in the Derby - Harzand looked all at sea too coming round the bend - but USAR was out stayed by Harzand despite coming with a storming run on the outside to join Harzand and look like overhauling Harzand; USAR did the same in the Chester Vase against Port Douglas looking all over the winner, and only 'won' because of the 'controversial' ride by the jockey of latter whose mount is a stablemate of USAR, and 2nd string. I believe deep down connections of USAR have had this at the back of their minds since the Derby.

As for OoSG, he won the Irish Leger by a distance, and would have won the English version earlier had he not been withdrawn at the last minute because he was a stablemate of Bondi Beach, the eventual winner; the run of OoSG in the Ascot Gold Cup was sensational, and I also believe he ran the last two furlongs of the race quicker than a miler of the same day.

The Arc' if run on softish ground - a good probability being at Chantilly this year - could be energy sapping for most runners and his stamina and ability to quicken are major attributes in a usually rough and tumble race as the 'Arc'/

As always, horse racing is a game of differing opinions and I shall definitely back Harzand, Minding or OoSg over USAR over 12f  any day.

OOSG will be off the bridle from the word go in the arc, see him staying on for 6th

Sometimes even though the best horse on the day wins the Derby the form can occasionally get turned around later due to some runners improving and others regressing. Wfa can only ever be an estimated scale based on averages, all horses obviously do not improve at the same rate in reality. St Jovite was well held in his Derby but turned it around afterwards. Alamshar, who I backed, was beaten fair and square by Kris Kin but gained revenge later. Light Shift got turned over by Peeping Fawn after beating her deservedly in the Oaks. Even if USAR had no excuse last time it wouldn't be a complete surprise if he ended up the better horse, as sint says it's only a length and a half difference after all and I know which yard I'd have more confidence in.

Seem to remember twice Gold Cup winner Ardross getting beat a head in The Arc De Triomphe ridden by the master Lester Piggott. On testing ground a stayer can be competitive but usually they get outpointed by a speedier type.

Figgis/FELTFAIR

I totally agree, horses do progress, and USAR is no exception. It is just my take on USAR given the evidence in the Derby and Chester Vase nonetheless, connections tendency towards the Juddmonte and not a 12f race does not inspire confidence. I'm sure over the next few days the betting market for this race and the 'Arc' will reflect his chance of a run in the latter.

The Derby form is clearly a notch above the rest of the 3yo's, if UAR is fit and runs hed be a worthy fav on that form.

Postponed is a machine this year but the lung thing before the King George is a huge worry and The Arc is probably the main target for him so highly unlikely to be 100% for this race if he evens runs, he wouldnt be running here if he was mine.

Hawkbill is pretty solid, good tactical speed but will he get the run of the race again and does he handle soft better than the horses he beat last time, he goes on anything while The Ghurka and Time Test want faster ground.

Time Test seems to be just below top class but with the doubts about Postponed and UAR this might be his best chance if the ground is fast.

Sore head of a race antepost, I might chance UAR at 5/1.

trip looks a bit on the short side for Postponed and USAR but there does not look to be any miler-type capable of stepping up and the "specialists" Hawksbill and Time Test are not top drawer IMO

I was at Epsom Derby day and Postponed was hugely impressive. I'd go out of a limb and say US Army Ranger would have beaten Harzand if not held up a million miles off the pace by Ryan Moore. Had a ridiculous amount of ground to make up and still nearly got there despite leaning in on the camber final furlong. Postponed in the Juddmonte pour moi at 3/1

It looks likely Time Test will have his ground come race day as no inclement weather is anticipated on the horizon. If so, would it also favour Postponed given it is only 10f?

USAR is taking a walk here to 7/1 from 9/2, is something amiss?

Next weeks forecast is for warm dry weather, so g/f will be the field of play (if report is right) hope so :-)
Postponed does look the one to beat imo, even allowing for the drop to 10f+ looks to have improved again this season, & watching his races back this season, he is not short of pace, I would imagine they will use a pacemaker as well for him, Time Test also, so a strong run Juddmonte looks a sure thing. Not heard any confirmation about US Army Ranger running?? Will make for an even better race if he does take part.

It has been reported today that AOB looked set to run Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton in the Juddmonte, and a decision on the participation of USAR will be made after he works this week.

But the betting market is as good as saying USAR will be heading to the Royal Whip next sunday instead. Can you blame connections? This race is looking super competitive.

I suspect that APOB might want to get a confidence boosting win into USAR before considering the Arc, not easy to do on the Knavesmire.

With fast ground almost assured can't blame them for aiming elsewhere with USAR - maybe they will go for he Irish Champion if there is some cut.

time test a non runner.

Great shame as the ground would be to his liking but not a total surprise given his hard fought victory in his last run.

Hawkbill friendless here too.

Thankfully never backed USAR, was too busy doing my brains in on rubbish, back in position now.

I wont be backing Postponed at evens, will let him win at that price, I still have to doubt whether he will be 100% for this.

Seriously considering an e/w on Mutakayyef 14/1, ive always liked him since his debut as a 2yo, he has been a frustrating horse over the years but looks an improved animal this season after being gelded. My first thought when he won at Ascot was that he could win a Group 1 this season but I didnt consider this race for him. He has shown a liking for the track in two starts here, getting nailed late by Mondialiste who won a Group 1 in Canada and ran 2nd to Tepin in the BC Mile on his next two runs, and when winning first time this season. He has run against Postponed twice at 10f and beat him both times, a lot of water under the bridge since then but interesting nonetheless.

The form of Highland Reels King George does not look up to much imo, hes been around this season as well, from Meydan to Hong Kong then 2 hard races at Ascot, he looks like a default runner now for Ballydoyle rather than this being the plan and not convinced this is his track, seems to be suited to those tight tracks with a short straight. Hes a solid horse and im sure he will run a race again but couldnt fancy him.

The Grey Gatsby could be overpriced at 10/1, proven solid 10f Group 1 horse, likes the track as well and should get his ground unlike when 3rd last season. You can forgive the run first up on soft and his 2nd in a stolen race at 12f last time, he should be spot on for this and he is probably the value bet in the race at this stage.

Looks like it is a one horse race and not one i've backed unfortunately. Other speculative guess is Yalta for the Nunny.

Will Hawkbill be supplemented for this race today? The market here is unsure, and Godolphin have been uncommonly 'quiet' on this regard.

Supplemented 2day.

Come on you little tinker.

On an anticipated good/firm ground and only 10f Postponed will have a fight on his hands to win this; Hawkbill is the unknown on this ground, if not inconvenienced by it I could see a shoot out between Highland Reel (the hare), Hawkbill and Postponed with Wings Of Desire leading the chasing pack perhaps.

Will be very surprised if the Postponed team don't run a pace maker?
Can't let this turn into a tactical home str sprint for home?

Oh dear! A big walk by Postponed to 3.3 here, and fairly big money too. Nothing too sinister, I hope.

Yes, see that, about 80+ £ available @ 9/4 ???
RUK spoke to RV ??

RV just had a nice (welcome) winner @ Donny

Taken a little bit of that 3.35,

Let's hope it is just someone unwinding their position otherwise it is concerning for backers of Postponed.

Or could it be connections of USAR before confirming his run? I sincerely hope not.

Let's see? Weaken the race even more if Fav pulls out now!!
Hopefully all is well with him. @ 3.35 it's worth a small risk imo, petrol ££ for my trip down next week, I hope :-)

Good luck with York. I'd like to see Idaho - ground a slight concern if fast - and Fair Eva win convincingly to cement their chances in the St Leger and 1000G respectively.

Cheers, Gd luck with your bets @ York & ante post. Idaho does look the 1 to beat on Weds, form horse, being by Galileo I would not think the ground will be a prob, & they will prob water the track for day 1 as the weather looks warm & sunny. Fair Eva looks all class & should win the Lowther.

Yep, good luck to all. Starting off on a voyage to Beautiful Days music festival in Devon at the weekend which will take in a visit to Tynemouth to see the in-laws and two days at York. Get stuck in, if you haven't already.

Is Postponed not a definite runner in this race? The reason I've asked is because on Channel 4 Racing on saturday, Jim McGrath, - towards the end of the programme - mentioned Postponed's participation has neither been confirmed nor disconfirmed - my interpretation. Why did he feel the need to say that? I've always thought Postponed's participation is a given especially post the trainer's latest update just recently. Did anyone after watching the programme come away with the same impression as I?

He's been declared.

Trainer reports he's in top form & looks great, looks like all systems go.

Looked at the prices and was surprised as to how much impact a lack of Ryan Moore appears to be having on the price of Highland Reel. Felt myself there shouldn't be too much in the prices between him and Hawkbill for 2nd fav yet one is nearer 8/1 on here and one is 9/2. Considering Hawkbill is stepping up in trip and is yet to win on anything quicker than G/S thought it was a surprising disparity. Unless connections of HR believe they had him spot on for Ascot and this has been a slight after thought.

Right then boys and girls be on the lash at York and anywhere inbetween for the next few days (not Saturday with the masses and the unwashed like in paddy power advert) all in Hawkbill and same Yalta as a starter had few bob on Found when was worse for wear Friday at 7/2 with Jokers thought had done the dosh been divine intervention now 15/8 so come on pay for some champers at York very reasonable price you know that respect lets hope get on train in proper direction this time. Had a snifeter in anticipation will post fancies tomorrow befior I'm on my way. Need to pay for new bathroom. Good luck everybody. Alloa last Saturday have paid for my little soiree. they are going to win the league you know. I'm going to follow Mr Fahey in all the handicaps exacta and trifectas and anythig else. OI OI.

Will report back if I get home.

Like Highland Reel for this. Postponed too short IMO for what he's achieved and an interrupted preparation.

Think I will give The Grey Gatsby another chance now that spencer is off his back. proper horse if rode up with the pace and will keep going.

Postponed is rated the best horse in Europe but, as I've said before, he may well be an improved horse but so far I haven't been able to rate him any higher than last year and want to take him on. I thought Hawkbill would've been worth a shot in the KG with the 12lbs allowance but don't fancy him here receiving only 8lbs, I don't subscribe to the theory that all 3yos improve in line with wfa and he'll need to improve again. Mutakayyef is interesting at a big price after his gelding operation, he showed a nice turn of foot in his last two races and could be better than the bare form but he'll need to be as this should be run at a faster pace so I'll pass on him.

I backed Wings of Desire in the KG but as with Hawkbill I don't fancy him here in receipt of the lesser weight allowance. Before the KG there was a significant move for Highland Reel in the market in the expectation of an improved showing from him and sure enough there was. Moore received plaudits for the ride but I thought the best horse won regardless of the way he was ridden. Admittedly it was a bit of a sub par renewal but for me it was still a better race than this year's Coronation Cup and at these odds I'm backing him.

A small bet on Hawkbill attracted by his tasty price and the form of Postponed's stable, but the ground is a mega unknown.

Figgis, I'm favouring Highland Reel too but only minimum stakes. Postponed is my idea of the best horse in the race by 3 pounds and if he runs his race he will win. I have doubts about the lay off and the trip to an extent but suspect he might just be a bit rusty. Hawkbill has been murdered by the draw imo. He has thrived on going forward from the stalls and that surely won't be on from 14. I can see him either being too wide or being very keen if held up, possibly both. Wings of Desire is surely not good enough - only top class 3yos tend to win this when there are decent elders. Dariyan makes little appeal after a curious piece of placement last time out. The Grey Gatsby has everything in his favour for the first time for almost two years - track, ground, strong pace. I just don't think he's the same horse.

Howellsy, do you rate Postponed a better horse this year than last? Ignoring the easy manner of his CC win, as that doesn't necessarily mean he can improve on that, I have him the same horse as last year on times.

There's mumbling he won't be as effective on this fast going. I'm no expert but some of Kitten's Joy offspring DO handle fast going. Over the years this race normally goes to a speedy horse. So many milers have won and some really good milers at that. Solid EW for me. To many slow horses in this race.

I have him 2 lbs better than his King George win based on his big Dubai win. These are not speed figures though just a performance rating.

He's 1.5 (5 places) at the moment that could look the bet of the year afterwards.

Well done Postponed backers, no complaints about Highland Reel who ran to form, although I was concerned he wouldn't make the places for a few strides.

Very good performance. The Galileo Gold/Ghurka/Hawkbill form looks rubbish

juddemont is clearly the most important all aged race now in UK..........it has overtaken the king george and champion stakes. having this race on CV what all stallion owners want.

Very classy performance from Postponed. Looked to my eye like he would just come on a bit for the race, looking at him in the parade ring.
Love the way he lowers his head when going to the final couple of furlongs of battle.
Thing he will improve again for this win & will take some beating in the Arc granted some Gd or faster ground.

Just got round to the replay last night after being in Devon and Cornwall all weekend - excellent straightforward, no nonsense ride from Atzeni - played to the horse's strengths and ensured that there were no traffic problems.