Horse Antepost
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17 Jul 16
09:37
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Date Joined:
12 Jul 07
Next big betting adventure is this one. Start loading on. Didn't Mr Appleby say International was likely objective on C4 yesterday rather than KG and decision on KG would be made by weekend. Have had a wodge on at 4/1 which is freely available if it runs in this at York will go off at 7/4. All aboard the choo choo. Could see no more than 7 or 8 maximum running and Hawkbill winning easy.
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I keep saying it but Time Test on quick going will take some stopping judged on his run in poor conditions in the Eclispe.
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Hawkbill would only receive 8lbs from Time Test compared to the 11lbs he received in the Eclipse. While that wouldn't be enough to reverse the form I have Time Test's previous run 3lbs higher on faster ground so could see him reversing the form on better ground. It looks like it should be a tougher race than the KG. Hawkbill has made big improvement already but think he'll probably need to continue that progression. For me it's the wrong choice, the KG is potentially an easier race with Postponed beatable having to give him 12lbs. Unless they think Hawkbill needs more time for recovery or they're really doubtful he'll get the 12f I don't think they should be running scared of Postponed.
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Hawkbill is a good progressive horse nevertheless, if the ground for this race is good and no worse, and despite Hawkbill beating a top miler in The Gurkha I'd side with Time Test, without hesitation, solely because Hawkbill outstayed The Gurkha who was running beyond 1 mile on soft going for the 1st time. I also believe that could be the reason Godolphin is aiming Hawkbill for the Juddemonte and not the King George next weekend despite the better wfa advantage in the latter.
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I don't understand that reasoning, if as you say Hawkbill outstayed the others and is likely to face Time Test at York on better ground which would give the latter a chance to reverse the form, it's a race that requires more a show of speed than stamina, then why should they choose York?
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figgis,
I firmly believe Hawkbill outstayed The Gurkha (only) in the Eclipse due to the soft ground - the ground was also an impediment to Time Test there too. However, if the ground was good (at least) in the Juddmonte Time Test will avenge his Eclipse defeat by Hawkbill given another 3lbs wfa advantage. But I also believe Hawkbill will not be as effective over 12f in the KG against Postponed in spite of the wfa advantage given 12f is the latter's optimum trip. I hope Godolphin have had a change of heart over the weekend and supplement Hawkbill tomorrow for the KG which I agree is a softer option than the Juddmonte. |
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Oh ok, didn't know you think Hawkbill unlikely to stay 12f.
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Figgis
I think connections have reservations about 12f for Hawkbill too or least this year because Hawkbill has another engagement that week ie the Great Voltigeur (12f) but they seem to be leaning towards the Juddemonte instead as intimated by Charlie Appleby on tv yesterday. |
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This is all about Time Test and whether or not the ground is Good. Good or better he wins imo.
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The Gurkha would be favourite if he takes his place after a promising Sussex run.
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Looks like being aimed here boys and girls first bit out of the way no change in price mind you. Still got the utmost confidence.
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If The Gurkha gets his revenge on Galileo Gold in the Sussex Stakes next wednesday at Goodwood I cannot see him ever running over 10f again because to be crowned the Champion Miler is hugely prestigious and financially rewarding to his connections.
On good/firm ground with Time Test and Hawkbill (both 7/2) in the field the former will have an excellent chance of redressing the Eclipse form as he's proven on the ground unlike the latter. |
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I'm already loaded with big big bombs bombs on The G at 4/1 impossiblechappie for The Sussex. My only concern is ran like a dog last time. That might be the pom pom clouding my judgemet. i'm an all in sort of guy. Might have a dfay off to tootle down next Wednesday. oi oi they used to sout at the dog tr4ack oi oi my son.
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Oi Oi. PS backed that one of Mr Faheys at Beverley for a few quid. Paid for the pomaigne (probably ppor spellling).
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loto
I'm loaded on The Gurkha too for the Sussex Stakes but I hope Awtaad is not the party pooper should he run. |
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Imagine Time Test, Hawkbill, Postponed and Minding....what a race, if so!
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I've got me watering can out impossible.
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Time Test had to battled hard to win 3/4 lengths from Mondialiste who, when he has his conditions is no mug. However, it was on the face of a bit underwhelming from TT. Fwiw, Pat Smullen felt the horse was still immature and he was in front way too soon. Expects him to improve for the experience of the race and when the pace is stronger/when he gets a longer lead.
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I know he won and I would n't necessarily knock him for being merely workmanlike but I do wonder if the long straight at York will play to Time Test's strengths in a Group 1?
His best win visually was in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot last year when she showed a blinding turn of foot. York strikes me as more of a grinders' track and I think that's at least part of the reason why Golden Horn got turned over last year. I suppose Wings of Desire showed a turn of foot to win the Dante and, of course, Frankel a few years back. Maybe it just looks more of a grind when they come up the centre of the track. Maybe I'm over thinking it. |
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I get that impression too. Not sure York is his best track.
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AOB: "USAR is being aimed at the Juddmonte International race."
It just gets better and better. |
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Impossible123
Nothing to do with the race but I can't help think that you are on course to be the most prolific poster I've ever seen. You've only been around since Sep '15 but you have already clocked up 1623 posts in 11 months whilst its taken me just 15 years to knock up 2700 +. My rate is around 14-15 posts a month whilst yours is 10 times that. I would have thought that would be impossible, impossible 123.  |
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You will need to go even faster to catch Sintonian however!
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sintonian,
I have, haven't I? Presently, this is a hobby I've just undertaken but hopefully in years to come, it would give me a small positive return as well if the present enthusiasm/buzz does not diminish with time. I'm lucky in that my profession allows me to post; I'm mainly interested in horse racing and non-handicaps, unless it is a fun bet. |
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I have the same account for 12 years.
Interesting comments from Roger Charlton today...he reckons he left Time Test a gallop short yesterday owing to the fact he gave him longer to recover from the Soft ground Eclipse. |
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Postponed and USAR have been in massive demand today and is as short as 2/1 and 5/1 respectively, unlike Time Test who is on the drift; Minding is too being backed into 5/1 now (here) and 'fav' for the'Arc'.
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Minding wont be running.
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Really trappy race to be playing antepost. Not keen on Time Test or Hawkbill and if it cuts up badly then Postponed could go off odds-on, but equally he might not make the race at all. O'Brien has a strong hand but with so many options it's hard to go in now.
Looking at the betting only Wings of Desire at 33/1 strikes me as a possible value bet but will hold fire. |
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Wings Of Desire has been reported could be aimed at the Juddmonte or the Prix Niel - both 10f - yet he's been backed into favouritism (here) for the Leger.
USAR is as short as 4/1 for this race; Minding is 5/1 for the 'Arc'. |
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Prix Niel is run over 2400 metres (12f). All trials & Arc run at Chantilly this year.
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Pom pom in the glasses wodge on at 4/1 on The G in The Sussex.
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where did AO'B say USAR will run ? I've seen it mentioned but no source,
the last I saw was after racing at Leopardstown where he said, “US Army Ranger is getting ready to come back,” O’Brien confirmed. “We’ve been very happy with him. He had a break and is just back in. We could look at The Curragh with him–maybe the Royal Whip.” |
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Post-Sussex I'd have to say he seemed to be in two minds as to whether it would be a race for TG, he slightly dismissed the PJM as 'the race in France' .. and obviously the International is a tremendous race to win - I don't know about USAR being thrown in that deep first time back ..
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(AO'B also said Found and Hit it a Bomb would also be starting back dropped down in Grade shortly)
I have a suspicion, unless someone can show where this "USAR -> International" story is coming from, that he'll also drop back in Grade and quite possibly TG will take the run |
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Race does not look suitable for USAR at all...where are the quotes?
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ffs
Yes, AOB did say the next race for USAR could be the Royal Whip however, AOB mentioned USAR was being aimed at the Juddmonte in a post race win interview of the Irish Oaks (I think) - I shall try and find it. Hence, USAR's short price in this race, and possibly resaon for the drift in the 'Arc' unlike Minding whose price has contracted for that race. As such I think AOB would have maybe 3 for the French race eg Minding, Order of St George and Found. |
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AOB had been reported to say by several racing sources US Army Ranger was targeting this race post the win of Highland Reel in the King George & QE Stakes last saturday.
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can't have USAR for this looks like he needs every yard of 12f
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A_T
I can see why Coolmore are aiming USAR in this race because USAR has a high cruising speed and can quicken. I also think they are beginning to realise USAR will not (never) beat Harzand over 12f; they possibly also reckon USAR just about stays 12f given the evidence of his runs in the Chester Vase and the Epsom Derby. Hence, it would not surprise me if USAR is scratched from the 'Arc' and replaced by Minding instead. |
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"a high cruising speed and can quicken"
does that actually mean anything? sounds like something people say to hype up a stallion. a horse is either fast enough to win a race or it isn't. |