Falmouth Stakes (8th July)

The ground is good at the moment with little or no rain expected between now and then; Ballydoyle loves good/fast ground and he could be getting it here, finally. At 14.5 here Ballydoyle is value for a run against the warm 'fav' who I believe is more effective further than 8f, and on softer ground.

When AOB was asked about his plans for the July Meeting yesterday, the only horse he name checked was Alice Springs, said plans for the rest depended on the ground although, as you say, the forecast suggests we may be racing on fast ground for a welcome change by the end of the week.

It looks a potentially hot race to me and I wonder if they might swerve it with Ballydoyle for a better opportunity to get a 1 next to her name (within her own age group?)

If there is any value at this stage it's Euro Charline for me - 2nd in this last year (Amazing Maria who beat her then has yet to prove she's quite as good this year though she might also want faster ground and ran pretty well in the Queen Anne). 

So, anyway, Euro Charline, 2nd in this last year, 2nd in the Lockinge, apparently still improving, colt who beat her in Lockinge ran a big race in the Queen Anne, she missed Royal Ascot, targetted at this race so bound to turn up barring accidents - the problem (there always is one!) is that she does n't actually win that often.

Thinking about it, I can see both Euro Charline and Amazing Maria running big races here - Usherette's chances are obvious and Nemoralia will also be a big threat back on faster ground with the wfo - yep, hot race.

^wfa not wfo.

AOB's reaction and comment post Prix De Diane about Ballydoyle were the ground was against her and she'd an entry in the Falmouth. This is also Ballydoyle's only entry until The Irsh Oaks - Even Song or Minding - unlike Alice Springs with two races before, two and ten days later at The Curragh.

However, I'm hoping with the anticipated good/fast ground at Newmarket next week AOB will allow Ballydoyle to take his place despite it's a hot one with Usherette a warm 'fav'. But I've been bitten twice recently with my antepost bets, here's hoping I'm correct this time.

Amazing Maria @ 12/1 and Euro Charline @ 14/1 for me.

I hope Ballydoyle runs here as she's receiving 9lbs from the older fillies in this race compare to just 5lbs for a similar race in Sept.

Amazing Maria's trainer O'meara has been on my "cold list",something like 2 winners from 80 runners best part of june  but had 4 winners from 5 runners saturday!Maybe he's getting back on track and hopefully she'll be back near her best here.
Euro Charline is the one I fancy to run big at a great price.Team Valor owned,this is probably a prep for the Beverley D in Arlington Park 13th august.

is nemoralia a 100% runner? TIA

Ballydoyle is taking an energetic walk in the market, unlikely runner I'd think now. If so, a great shame given ground to her liking for a change.

Talks she is in America to av a spin round Belmont with 3 other AOB horses (coolmore, deauville, long island sound)

BJG

Is that so? No wonder those in the 'know' have walked it out. Surely a near certainty an unlikely runner now.

What i was told only, Ballydoyle & Coolmore possibles for Belmont Oaks, Deauville & Long Island Sound possibles for Belmont Derby.


We'll find out tomorrow if true i suppose, would just watch bets on her for sure

I backed Ballydoyle here on 2/3nd July but I've just managed to find a post dated 5 days ago that AOB would be shipping Ballydoyle for the Gp1 Belmont Oaks on 9th July at Belmont Park yet bookies here are still taking bets in this country for this race. What a disgrace!

BJG

I've just found myself. Such a disgraceful behaviour from the bookies here.

Same as they had tepin in the betting for the Sussex stakes even though she went back to america after Ascot(ladbrokes still do!)

Indeed, it's so cunning and unprofessional and in my opinion it amounts to 'fraud' if I may say so knowing a public statement had already been made by AOB about her probability of a no show on race day; Tepin, Ballydoyle (energetic walk today) and So Mi Dar (yesterday) - the last mentioned cost me near £200 stake.

Far be it from me to defend the bookies but the horses hold entries in the races and it's not unknown for connections to change their mind! Surely it would help if connections scratched their horses from races they know they're not going to run in.

I think Tepin may have been scratched from the Sussex Stakes as she is listed in places as a non runner but it's not transparent - the 6 day decs stage for the Falmouth was last Friday - and AOB left Ballydoyle in - what are the bookies supposed to do? Quote every horse declared at the 6 day stage except Ballydoyle?

to be strictly accurate the 6 day decs were on Saturday - but you get the point, Ballydoyle is still entered in the race.

ReaseHeath

Very well said, connection could have been more forthcoming or proactive with news or updates about their horses next possible engagement/s eg AOB/Ballydoyle (Falmouth/Belmont Oaks) and Gosden/So Mi Dar (Irish Oaks) -lesson learnt and not hopefully repeated......soon!

I certainly don't agree about Gosden. I'm sure he wants to get So Mi Dar back on track asap but if he had announced that she was not ready a month ago and then she came to hand quickly and ran in the Irish Oaks or Falmouth he would be castigated for misleading punters again! Preparing a top class horse for a specific target is much harder than getting any old horse ready as there is a suitable race every week for a mile maiden 3yo while a Group 1 only comes along 4 or 5 times a year.

sageform,

I do not agree with your take on Gosden about So Mi Dar (SMD), why?

Gosden was correct to withdraw SMD from the Epsom Oaks as a precaution with just 10 days to the race even though then he said it (lameness) was a minor setback - she'd be ok in a few days - and she'd be prepared for the Irish Oaks.

However, on 9th June (post Epsom) Gosden was reported by a racing journalist to say SMD was "only walking at that moment". Gosden also said we'd come back quietly with her in the second half of the season but we'd not set any targets as she'd "missed her mid-summer targets".

Questions:

(1) If SMD was only walking on 9th June, what chance had she of making the Irish Oaks on 16th July? A near 'zero', I'd say.
(2) Missed her mid-summer targets? This can only mean the Irish Oaks in July as her next planned engagement is the Yorkshire
    Oaks on 18th Aug and not even the Nassau on 30th July.

I'm certain some would have backed So Mi Dar post this report (9th June) until three days ago as every bookie then still had her in the betting with two even shortening her to 4/1 from 5/1.

Anyone backing SMD for the Irish Oaks did so knowing she was possibly heading there after a set-back. Their own fault.

Trainers and owners are fully within their rights to change plans for whatever reason, even if they have previousky stated horse x is going for race y.

If you don't think it's fair stop backing antepost.

And the speed of recovery from injury is not an exact science. If trainers deliberately mislead, they should be criticized but if they are doing their best to inform but get it wrong, that is part of owning and training horses. As I keep saying, 8 weeks before any race it is evens to predict a horse as a runner never mind a winner.

There are advantages and disadvantages playing the Antepost market and no one will dispute that. But that is not the issue here...it's the trainers who could be more forthcoming or adopting a more proactive role informing the racing public, and the bookies acting accordingly; the horse racing betting market is vital to the horse racing industry ie no betting = negligible racing, as the majority of sponsorships ensure the existence of the industry.

Regards So Mi Dar, I believe it was not the speed of recovery from the injury - only a lameness after all, not an injury - otherwise Gosden would have alluded to it in the 9th June report. I believe the reason that has prompted her to miss the Irish Oaks is more likely a change in plan for the autumn eg the 'Arc' is now the ultimate prize; the Irish Oaks could be too early a return post lameness given the 'Arc' is in October. Hence, the entry for the 'Yorkshire Oaks in mid Aug, in my opinion a more testing race than the Irish Oaks given the entries of Minding, Found and Even Song. Let's hope she runs in the 'Arc' and causes a major upset against the colts and others.

Backed Alice Springs each way, three places.

Two that will like to hear their hoofs rattle:
Amazing Maria, now O'meara's string are starting to fire.
An outsider to consider is Very Special.Jockey bookings say no chance.She's the sole front runner in the race,loves fast turf goes well fresh.Could run a big race given an easy lead.

^Fair point about the front runner angle - I remember one of Clive Brittains making all at 50/1 a few year ago.

Gutted about Euro Charline.

What a ride by Moore on Alice Spring? An easy winner in the end and backed off the board; the pilot of Usherette, what can I say Barzalona might as well had stayed in France and not bothered.

Now I hope Ballydoyle does the business in the States tomorrow.

Another Ballydoyle gamble and Feltfair knew!

Can't remember them having a stronger group of 3yo fillies - maybe someone else can? Good pointer for Nemoralia's chances on Sunday also.

Did n't have a bet in the end but of the four I highlighted as having big chances in a hot race, 2 did n't run and the other 2 finished last and second last.

The perils of antepost analysis, eh?

Peslier could have done with a ride earlier on the card to familiarize himself with today's conditions, Barzalona did n't have that excuse - best horse on the day won though.

well done Feltfair also.