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Epsom Derby 2017

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By:
Try My Best
When: 03 Jun 17 22:20
I'm the one with the funds in the bank. Never after time without backing the thing. Keep making excuses Fig and trying to deflect the fact that you lost AGAIN. If you ever want a tipping competition just say and I will show you up for the fraud you are.
By:
Howellsy
When: 03 Jun 17 22:21
Try My Best, the point is that WOE is a horse with very limited tactical speed. I can think of horses that have won big races in such a way - Talent's Oaks win comes straight to mind; Giacomo in the Kentucky Derby. I'm sure others can think of other examples. It will be difficult to replicate today's set of circumstances at a track like the Curragh, and certainly in a small field King George. It's a result that does the Derby no favours - Pour Moi is hardly the most fashionable stallion. And just for your info, the last time Figgis backed a big race winner was, er, yesterday, a bet he put up weeks before the Oaks. That's the way most of us like to operate - pre race disclosures carry so much more clout than post race revelations.
By:
Try My Best
When: 03 Jun 17 22:22
u probably had a saver on cracksman as well lmfao
By:
Figgis
When: 03 Jun 17 22:25
I'm the one with the funds in the bank

You do sound quite irate in spite of this, so probably a good job you didn't lose on the race like me, hate to think how you'd have taken it Wink
By:
Try My Best
When: 03 Jun 17 22:27
hey up Howellsy another loser has joined the scene. I don't attack anybody, even said that cracksman ran a great race for brigust who had got a great price. imo he was never to going to win the race. result he lost. but you lot can't help yourselves. Bullshat artists and people who should give the game up and can't admit when they are wrong. A typical english trait.
By:
Figgis
When: 03 Jun 17 22:27
Evening Howellsy, what is your take on the race, CoM and the others?
By:
Try My Best
When: 03 Jun 17 22:30
Always admit when i get it wrong. I am  the same in victory as in defeat. Would have been the first on here to say well done to brigust if cracksman had watered the track. Just ashame that u lot can't do the same. Anyway goodnight losers
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jun 17 22:36
Despite the soundbites of AOB CoM could turn out to be another US Army Ranger ie rushed to make the Derby and paid the price later on. A renewal in the Irish Derby is awaited keenly, and my money will not be on CoM if Eminent shows up.
By:
Sankara
When: 03 Jun 17 22:57
If I'd just had a massive win on the Derby I doubt I'd be so angry. Still, each to his own.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 17 00:15
I've just logged on to the thread for the first time since the race
and found a poster called Try My Best has twenty four posts after the race.
I can't remember him posting before the race.  Perhaps he did.
By:
Howellsy
When: 04 Jun 17 08:45
Figgis, it's always hard to know the extent to which slight personal frustrations are affecting one's interpretations. I can't help wondering what might have happened if Moore had been closer to the pace, like Cracksman. It's a strange thing about the Derby - it seemed like a 'blistering' pace yet DMac finished very close up. I suspect the trackers went very quick between the 3 and 1 pole to catch him and paid the price close home. Moore's ride was a virtually exact replica of how he rode US Army Ranger and the Queen's horse a few years ago, and Tartan Bearer - it may well be that the horses just weren't good enough, but surely he must be curious as to what might happen if he sat closer? If any of these horses had been world beaters, I'm sure they would have won, but all I'm interested in as a punter is whether they could have won given a more tactically astute ride on the day. Lester Piggott reckoned the best tactic was generally to be in the first 6 coming around Tattenham corner. As for the winner, I just can't see how that set of circumstances can be repeated again, so find it hard to see how he can follow up. It reminded me a bit of the filly Talent a few years back - visually an impressive winner but no tactical speed and never able to repeat it. Nevertheless, I would love it if WOE could be ridden handier and could win the Irish Derby, and then come back in trip and win a top 10f event. There's no prejudice against him at all- just a feeling that this'll be another year when the Derby winner doesn't win again, which doesn't do the race any good, especially as there are plenty of people who like to undermine it.
By:
A_T
When: 04 Jun 17 09:16
the way he won reminded me of Lammtarra - picking them off in the final 100 yards and going away. of course very different form pre-race.

we have to remember these are really still developing juveniles -  WFA does not regard them as mature for another 12 months - so there could be spurts of big improvement at any time especially this time of year

let's hope he gets another chance - but it would not be a surprise if he is sold to Japan or something

one good thing is there are connections from yesterday who probably feel their colt is capable of great things so we may see a better field in the King George than we've become used to of late. if i owned Cracksman or Eminent I would wait for Ascot and give the Curragh (and the inevitable 6+ Ballydoyle runners) a miss
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 04 Jun 17 10:19
Anyone that backed WOE well done has obviously improved alot and wasn't a complete rag (100/1+) so there must have been a feeling in the yard there was a little bit more to come from the Chester Vase form. A bit galling for COM to run a huge race only to come up short especially after a similar outcome from USAR last year. My initial take was that it wasn't a great race given the top 10 were covered by 8L but i suppose time will tell. The time of the Derby does actually compare fairly favorably to the 1m 4f handicap in the next race and was run 4 seconds quicker than that. Considering the field size of the derby and conditions it was well set-up for a good clock time but it will be a headscratcher for the timebeing.  My final take was that i thought Cracksman ran probably better than the bare result given his inexperience. Anyway its been a great ride from picking out 2 yoy form to being at Epsom watching it yesterday. The derby is always a great puzzle to solve even if the result isn't necessarily what I would hope for.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Jun 17 11:11
Will be interesting to see how the betting shapes up if the front three/four take each other on again at the Curragh.

Don't think any of the front 4 will run in the King George.
By:
brigust1
When: 04 Jun 17 11:33
Awful night in London last night. Our hotel was nowhere near it thank goodness but what started off as an early night ended up well into the early hours. Had planned an early start, off to spend a few days with friends north of the border and hopefully get in few rounds of golf.

I think Cracksman was the moral winner yesterday, through gritted teeth. He was in the heat of the battle from the start and was still running on at the death. Epsom is clearly a fast horses track with the winner ridden like a non stayer, CoM, Eminent and Benbatl the speed horses, Capri is a 10f horse according to his trainer and then come the supposed guaranteed stayers. Douglas MacArthur, Best Solution, Glencadam Glory, Permian, Dubai Thunder, Venice Beach, Khalidi. Had this been a true stamina test Cracksman would have won easily. In my humble opinion of course.

All eyes are on the Curragh now, though I wouldn't mind if he missed it, which will suit him admirably then a month later the King George. I would fear a top class 3 year old filly in the King George but I wouldn't fear the non stayers Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Almanzor.

And finally, the Derby result shows again how misguided those people are who think AOB is a genius. He had the Derby winner in his yard, managed to get him beaten several times and only won a p oxy maiden. If that had been Curley the BHA would have been all over him. And I am convinced that wouldn't have happened if he were trained elsewhere. He would have been placed differently, raced differently, potentially been unbeaten and would not have come in unmentioned and under the radar. But that obviously suits a team owned by bookies where more money is made from bookmaking and from breeding.  Still the CoM backers clearly didn't mind being kept well and truly in the dark, treated like mushrooms then fed a good dose of c rap at the end. Good luck to you. Laugh
By:
brigust1
When: 04 Jun 17 11:34
Awful night in London last night. Our hotel was nowhere near it thank goodness but what started off as an early night ended up well into the early hours. Had planned an early start, off to spend a few days with friends north of the border and hopefully get in few rounds of golf.

I think Cracksman was the moral winner yesterday, through gritted teeth. He was in the heat of the battle from the start and was still running on at the death. Epsom is clearly a fast horses track with the winner ridden like a non stayer, CoM, Eminent and Benbatl the speed horses, Capri is a 10f horse according to his trainer and then come the supposed guaranteed stayers. Douglas MacArthur, Best Solution, Glencadam Glory, Permian, Dubai Thunder, Venice Beach, Khalidi. Had this been a true stamina test Cracksman would have won easily. In my humble opinion of course.

All eyes are on the Curragh now, though I wouldn't mind if he missed it, which will suit him admirably then a month later the King George. I would fear a top class 3 year old filly in the King George but I wouldn't fear the non stayers Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Almanzor.

And finally, the Derby result shows again how misguided those people are who think AOB is a genius. He had the Derby winner in his yard, managed to get him beaten several times and only won a p oxy maiden. If that had been Curley the BHA would have been all over him. And I am convinced that wouldn't have happened if he were trained elsewhere. He would have been placed differently, raced differently, potentially been unbeaten and would not have come in unmentioned and under the radar. But that obviously suits a team owned by bookies where more money is made from bookmaking and from breeding.  Still the CoM backers clearly didn't mind being kept well and truly in the dark, treated like mushrooms then fed a good dose of c rap at the end. Good luck to you. Laugh
By:
brigust1
When: 04 Jun 17 11:36
Sorry guys.It's been a long night. Will be back for the Curragh but in the US of A for the King George. Have a good one and be lucky. That includes you Loto and Uncle.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jun 17 12:42
I can't help wondering what might have happened if Moore had been closer to the pace

Howellsy, I said the other week that I'm not a fan of how he rides the race. On watching it unfold my first thoughts were 'Here he goes again'. Have to admit though as I saw the good pace and him come with what looked a winning run I thought he'd got it right this time.

If any of these horses had been world beaters, I'm sure they would have won, but all I'm interested in as a punter is whether they could have won given a more tactically astute ride on the day

Yes I know what you mean. Like you say a true great would still win but it's obvious none of these horses are world beaters and a better ride can make all the difference to marginal distances. I'm still not a fan of riding the race like that as I think it can bugger a lot of horses up afterwards. I remember years ago a horse called Bellotto being given a ride like that and while admittedly he was also no world beater anyway he never seemed the same afterwards. In years following I've seen a lot of runners perform poorly straight after similar rides in the race.

There's no prejudice against him at all- just a feeling that this'll be another year when the Derby winner doesn't win again

Yes that's how I see it. Obviously if WoE is priced up way over the odds then he would become a tempting bet but that probably won't happen. The only thing that puts me off being confidently against him next time is the others behind him are obviously nothing special either. I know all the form ratings will have CoM as having improved greatly but I actually have him 2lbs lower than his best last year. That's a negligible difference really and is probably just due to the longer trip but I see him as having flatlined, which, along with the hard race, would make him vulnerable in the near future. Neither could I confidently back the third or fourth to turn the form around so I'll probably just be watching the Irish Derby without a bet.
By:
A_T
When: 04 Jun 17 13:16
Certainly think COM had a very hard race - Cracksman was coming back at him - I would not want to back him next time

I don't think Moore did anything wrong - the winner came from a long way back too but nothing else from behind was closing - WoE was "the last to challenge" (in the words of Pat Eddery) and may just be a very good horse
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jun 17 13:25
WoE was "the last to challenge" (in the words of Pat Eddery) and may just be a very good horse

I can't think he could be very good as it does look to be pretty ordinary form overall for a Derby. He could, however, turn out to be better than the rest again next time even if the race is run differently. At the moment though I'm negative about him as even though he undoubtedly improved yesterday he still only picked up the pieces when the others were spent. So in view of his previous form I'm not convinced until he does it again.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jun 17 13:29
Certainly think COM had a very hard race

Another thing with CoM is he obviously gets pretty edgy about the whole racing scenario anyway, a hard race like that could affect him more than most.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jun 17 14:10
I've probably overstated how much the pace affected the race, it was far from a pace meltdown or anything like that. I just think WoE was made to look better by coming with his run late as the others had given their all. CoM was noticeably tiring in the final yards, the others less so. WoE had some trouble in running but I wonder if that actually helped him by only allowing him to challenge late. He was travelling well at the time so a case could be made that he could've won by the same distance even if going for home earlier. For anyone who takes him at face value I imagine there will be some juice in his price next time, as this win is bound to be viewed with a bit of suspicion by some (including me), with plenty thinking the form can be turned around and he doesn't have the 'sexy' profile of his opponents. If he does follow up I'll have been wrong to doubt him and end up missing the boat.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 04 Jun 17 14:41
winner could be a high chaparral type

fast improving stayer for me
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 04 Jun 17 15:24
Enjoyed reading the thread, plenty of informative and knowledgeable views and a little bit of needle too (there's no harm in that as long as it's not abusive). Happy

Just a few random thoughts going forward:

Cliffs of Moher could turn out to be this year's US Army Ranger!
Four of the Ballydoyle horses finished in the first seven separated by just 5 lengths adding credence to the idea that they're relatively closely matched
Douglas MacArthur hung on pretty well having being on the pace from the off - earlier showed his battling qualities when winning the Derrinstown and I would n't be writing him off in the Irish Derby and beyond.
I also wonder whether The Anvil and Douglas MacArthur were prescribed pacemaking duties due to the draw - possibly something to bear in mind for future reference in similar mobhanded scenarios
I think Gosden might have run five with a view to combating Ballydoyle team tactics (three of his finished in last five) and for that reason I wonder if he might be reluctant to send Cracksman to the Irish Derby (think Tartan Bearer)
The racing media will draw parallels between Enable and Taghrooda with a view to the King George but I seem to recall it was Sheikh Hamdan who was keen on running in the King George, Cracksman more likely to run in King George and Enable take in Irish Oaks for me.
Eclipse would make sense for Eminent surely?
Finally, Salouen had an absolute nightmare - baulked and nearly brought down (between 3 and 2 out I think),still regained some momentum and tried to run on after that (eased a little towards the post) - he would have finished much closer with a better passage and can certainly win a nice race this summer.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jun 17 17:06
AOB said Cliffs of Moher (CoM) could be Eclipse bound. Could he be on the same wavelength as some here regards CoM's Derby race eg he was coming to the end of his tether? I think the prospect of CoM winning a prestigious Group 1 12f is very limited.

If CoM does take the Eclipse (10f) route it seems unlikely Churchill will be up in distance until the Juddmonte International at the earliest; if CoM excels over 10f even less chance of Churchill doing so to avoid an encounter, I firmly believe.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 04 Jun 17 17:13
Went to 100/1 on here. There comes a point where the price was just ridiculous for its chances. Whose the clown now Jedi Sophie.LaughLaugh

What are you talking about TMB???

Congrats if bet winner,well done,assume you bet half the field because wouldve been about 14th on my radar....But why im mentioned by you i have no clue!
By:
jedi sophie
When: 04 Jun 17 17:15
Went to 100/1 on here. There comes a point where the price was just ridiculous for its chances. Whose the clown now Jedi Sophie.LaughLaugh

What are you talking about TRY MY BEST???

Gloating baffoon!

Well done if indeed did bet winner,around 14th on my radar....Couldnt bet with counterfeit!
By:
ffs
When: 04 Jun 17 18:10

Jun 3, 2017 -- 5:02PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


It is most disappointing for COM backers to be beaten by an unfancied horse from the same yard.


so Jack, did Wave really get the 7f ? Cry Sickened, didn't do any jumping up and down but tried to coax his to the finish line - the last 50yds was just too much, even Cracksman made nearly 1L back on him,

Such a long time in the planning, .. 1.12 in-play .. at least I didn't lose much, but oh what a sweet victory it would have been,

AO'B gutted !

By:
ffs
When: 04 Jun 17 18:11

Jun 3, 2017 -- 4:45PM, Figgis wrote:


Christ on a bike


awful, huh

By:
Fallen Angel
When: 04 Jun 17 18:14
did it COM go to 1.12 in running? damm didn't realise that. only had a select number of prices flashing up on my phone.
By:
ffs
When: 04 Jun 17 18:20

Jun 4, 2017 -- 6:14PM, Fallen Angel wrote:


did it COM go to 1.12 in running? damm didn't realise that. only had a select number of prices flashing up on my phone.


yeah - for the big races or those u've subscribed to on TF they give the in-play high/low + comments + ratings,

they give the in-play prices + ratings v soon, like withink 1hr

By:
ffs
When: 04 Jun 17 18:30

Jun 4, 2017 -- 5:06PM, impossible123 wrote:


AOB said Cliffs of Moher (CoM) could be Eclipse bound. Could he be on the same wavelength as some here regards CoM's Derby race eg he was coming to the end of his tether? I think the prospect of CoM winning a prestigious Group 1 12f is very limited.If CoM does take the Eclipse (10f) route it seems unlikely Churchill will be up in distance until the Juddmonte International at the earliest; if CoM excels over 10f even less chance of Churchill doing so to avoid an encounter, I firmly believe.


It's tempting to think so, and definitely the standard line at this stage, but I wonder if CoM is good enough ?? How good was yday ? Will he need to step up on that again to win a 10f G1 - if he does so well then surely they'll be kept apart,

Will be interesting to see how Ribchester gets on, and the other 4yo+ 1m, 1m2 horses

By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 04 Jun 17 19:10
Brig .. Down but not out. I have had an awful fortnight backed Chelsea for £1200 in the FA Cup laid off some then thought playing well enough would at least get back in game 1 down backed them again switched over back again Moses walking had Rodendenron at 25/1 laid bit off to mean not supping smart price and cracksman EW at 33/1 went for glory really no other way describing madness put lay up for £500 at 2 for a few bottles of dom pom was done at 2.04 lowest got some ammo though for RA been backing Gold Cup favourite for ever since last year Hills went 2/1 then an even more generous 3/1 for a while for a jolly good wodge. Ended up winning should of and could have been more. Hindight is a wonderful thing. Be careful on them planes world is a dangerous place. Had also backed Churchill at 20/1 in Derby more down the drain.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jun 17 19:13
Presently the next nominated target for Ribchester is the Queen Anne Stakes on 20th June where he is evens fav; the Eclipse is on the 8th July, and is too close to do both, in my opinion. However, Hawkbill (same ownership) is in the Eclipse too along with Eminent, Cracksman, Cliffs Of Moher (CoM) and (Churchill), the last named very unlikely post the defeat of CoM in the Derby.

I believe on a flat track Eminent and Cracksman (in the order of preference) would have the edge on CoM over 10f or 12f; which of these two horses (unlikely both) decide to take on CoM in the Eclipse the other will probably win the Irish Derby on 1st July if ridden with a bit more restraint even with Wings Of Eagles in the field, I believe.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 04 Jun 17 19:26
That should have been Chelsea at 6/1. when we get to Arc time think we'll see mile and half english and irish horses are well down the pecking order French will be miles in front wouldn't be suprised to see japanese have a very good one or two. Like Figgis says hard to know how good winner was i'll throw a couple of bob at it in the Irish derby because price might be value there you go. probably more down the drain.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jun 17 19:40
Will the winner Wings Of Eagles (WoE) win another 12f Group 1 race again? Probably no, is my opinion; will he run in the Leger after winning the Derby? Only a maybe,...if he had finished 2nd it would have been an emphatic yes!

O/T
There are more talented horses in the Arc than last year's eg Almanzor, the rejuvenated Jack Hobbs and Seventh Heaven if the ground is good/good to firm, to name three; the Japanese ones are a formidable threat if they would secure non-Japanese riders for them.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 04 Jun 17 20:14
so Jack, did Wave really get the 7f ? Cry Sickened, didn't do any jumping up and down but tried to coax his to the finish line - the last 50yds was just too much, even Cracksman made nearly 1L back on him,


Wave certainly stayed 7 furlongs as a 2yo and CoM stayed the distance yesterday, he was just outstayed by a much stronger stayer who was more suited to how the race was run.

I don't know how you think Cracksman made nearly a length back on him when CoM was never more than half a length ahead of him at any time. I agree with Figgis that Ryan Moore does not ride this race well. He ties to make up ground in the hottest part of the race and uses up too much energy doing so.

Cracksman was given a perfect ride by Dettori, had CoM been given the exact same ride I think he would have won. He would have been asked to deliver his effort slightly later and not use up his energy making up ground on horses being asked to quicken. Moore needs to watch how Piggott used to ride this race.

As for the future, the biggest factor for these young horses is how they come out of this race and how much improvement they have to come. That is impossible to predict so I wouldn't have a strong view about which of the first four will be best in future and I certainly would not back the winner at a short price to confirm his superiority.
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jun 17 21:30
I think those that were up with the pace early on paid the ultimate price in the end eg Douglas Macarthur, Best Solution, Permian and Venice Beach, and only Cracksman managed to finish in the frame - an extremely credible performance for a horse so inexperienced.

On the other hand Wings Of Eagles, Cliffs Of Moher, Eminent, Benbatl (last at one stage) and Glencadam Glory all came from behind to finish in to achieve their best position, I believe. But the sting in the tail was the winner came from even further back than his stable number 1 Cliffs Of Moher to nick it.

Cliffs Of Moher stays 12f but is extremely venerable to one that stays 12f in a truly run race. Also, I believe Cliffs Of Moher was definitely running on fumes at the end; he was not going away from the 3rd or 4th who was unsuited to the track and had a troubled passage in running too.

All to play for in the Irish equivalent on 1st July.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 04 Jun 17 21:43
Douglas Macarthur ran an amazing race to be beaten less than 5 lengths considering he and The Anvil went off so fast they were largely ignored by the rest. He has had a very hard race and may never recover his best form, but hopefully not.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 17 23:00
Wings Of Eagles was an unlucky winner.
He had bad luck twice in the straight and still won.
Visually he looks to have a big head, which often means a big neck and a big front and big engine.
He probably was lucky to be running at his own pace at the back of the field.
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