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ImSoLuckyLucky!
04 Jun 16 16:39
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By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 16 18:48
Please, no. Sad
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 04 Jun 16 19:57
TAJ MAHAL aka the CURRY HORSE.  Will win the 2000 guineas like Minding did last month then be supplemented for the Derby last minute.ExcitedExcitedExcited. if you ain't confident for the derby just back it for the 2000 guineas I have not researched this horse in any way but everyone one keeps ranting about it on racetracks and sites. Do not fill your boots, just keep stakes small Excited and hope for the bestTongue Out
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 18 Jun 16 15:00
Churchill wins the Chesham for the mafia
As short as 14-1
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Jun 16 15:36
Wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. The price of 14/1 is ludicrous, with Isomer 2nd (finished 2nd to Cunco last time) and Cunco who went down to the start very freely in 3rd. Not for me, Churchill is 14/1 for the 2000G.

A bit of redemption from Moore, but only Listed and valuable handicap races - not Gp 1.
By:
Ramruma
When: 28 Sep 16 02:57
No posts for three months -- is there another thread on our premier classic?

Churchill does not look like he is crying out for middle distances.

Capri won the Beresford but it was hardly a bet-compelling performance, needing to be ridden to get past his two stablemates. Capri has also had a rather odd campaign, with three races in three weeks before the Beresford, almost as if connections fear he will turn back into a pumpkin at the end of the season.

And that's the first and really only two in the betting: 25s and 33s bar two.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Oct 16 08:20
Hard to be excited by the entries for the Racing Post Trophy. Capri will presumably be hot favourite but he looked small and short backed to me in the Beresford so not sure he has much scope.

Have one in mind for Epsom but he's not listed on here yet and the bookie prices are a joke for maiden who hasn't even been placed in his two runs.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Oct 16 11:53
Having re-assessed what Churchill and other probable contenders (out so far) have done since my last post here eg Capri (2nd 'fav'), I cannot get away from Churchill for this race on price (8/1) relative to others, and I think he will stay 12f. If coming through his 2000G test with 'flying colours' 8/1 would be deemed extremely 'generous' post 6th May 2017.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Oct 16 13:09
Churchills dam only ever raced at 5f (only ran as a 2 year old) and her dam was Airwave who was a top class 6f sprinter for Henry Candy.
I know Galileo can pass on plenty of stamina but I'd be amazed if they even considered running Churchill at Epsom (whther he wins the Guineas or not).
By:
unclepuncle
When: 18 Oct 16 13:13
His full sister was called Curlylocks and only ran at 6-7f - ran two decent races in 7f maidens at two and was then dropped to 6f for it's fourth and final run as a 3 year old. It was favourite for all 4 starts.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Oct 16 20:57
Churchill's dam might have ever raced at 5f and half sister at 6/7f but the manner Churchill races ie he is so laid back and only does enough to win gives me more than hope he will stay at least 10f; his Epsom Derby price will contract post 2000G win and/or prior to any Derby trial eg Lingfield/Dante/Chester Vase, etc, otherwise no 12f for sure.

Churchill is a proven easy Gp1 winner unlike Capri (workmanlike Gp2 winner), and at 8/1 I'd be a backer especially Churchill has proven he goes on any ground.
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 16 13:05
I think I saw the Derby winner yesterday in Cracksman. Had a bit at 40s with 3 and 6 and 5 then tried to get the same with race and bets but knocked back to 11.16. Both are now 25s. What rubbish. Call themselves bookies. I only came over to back Western Hymn at Newbury on Saturday and instead of an small largely uncompetitive race there are 16 blooming runners including 2 dangerous 3 year olds. Still we can hope.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Oct 16 13:25
'Race and Bets' is a 'wannabe bookmaker', and hopeless; they will hit you with an 'id verification' request prior to a withdrawal after a small antepost win - an outfit to avoid at all costs!
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 16 13:47
You are probably right Imp. Let's hope I have to provide id verification.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Oct 16 16:15
I think Yucatan is no Derby winner and neither is Capri, his 3/4 length conqueror, leaving AOB with little option but consider Churchill for the race, I'd imagine.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Oct 16 17:14
Why don't you send him a photo of your £20 bet on Chruchill and see if 'the boys' will run him just for you.Laugh
By:
A_T
When: 22 Oct 16 17:42
like Caravaggio in the Guineas Cooolmore will have "no choice" but to run him Wink
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Oct 16 18:51
I think the chances of Churchill running in the Derby is greater than Caravaggio running in the 2000G given the fact that connections own both horses; there is only one Derby, and if Churchill wins the 2000G convincingly I'd be absolutely amazed if connections do not run him in one of the Derby trials eg Lingfield or the Dante - the financial reward is astronomical, the downside is near 'zero'. If Golden Horn could be trained to stay the Derby distance, so can Churchill.

I cannot see any of the runners of today's Racing Post winning the Epsom Derby.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Oct 16 19:08
Think most punters would be amazed if Coolmore sent a Guineas winner to run in a Derby trial.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 22 Oct 16 20:21
I123 - you arecstarting to embarass yourself (nothing newcthere thenLaugh).

Golden Horn was always a Derby prospect - made his two year old debut in late October over a mile and half a furlong on softish going - beating the subsequent twice Derby placed and Great Voltigeur winner in the process. He then made his three year old debut over 9f. His half sister had won a listed race over 10f and been 2nd in a 12f group 3. There is no correlation with Churchill whatsoever.
By:
A_T
When: 22 Oct 16 21:46
Poor Aidan and Coolmore. I bet "the boys" can hardly sleep at night for worrying over their lack of options for the Derby
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 22 Oct 16 22:11
If Churchill wins the Guineas the chances of him running in a Derby trial are close to zero, imo.
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Oct 16 23:08
As I said earlier Cracksman will win the Derby. And let me assure you that it is not a guess it is based upon solid reasoning. I would go into greater detail but why would I do that? And if you look at the horses currently ahead of him in the list then there is every reason to have confidence. I have never in my three score years and ten ever seen a horse and after seeing him perform one run been blown away. I will continue to back him regularly through the winter provided what I hear is positive and hope that all roads lead to Epsom.
As evidence of my ability Western Hymn, who I have constantly waited eagerly to run over 12f with blinkers, and who I came over to watch run is still being elusive. Never mind I'm sure JG will be true to his word and bring out the headgear. Let's hope it's not in a Group 1 race he cannot win.
Be lucky guys.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Oct 16 15:41
unclepuncle,

With due respect you are entitled to your opinions but bear in mind Horse Racing is not an exact science similar to Economics.

I got it spectacularly wrong with Found in the 'Arc' nevertheless, I'd been correct not backing Found in nearly every race she'd finished as 'bridesmaid' including her last in the Champions Stakes at Ascot. But do not get me wrong, Found deserved to win the 2016 'Arc' given her tenacity and persistent in so many Group races in a short period of time.

One is also not 'wrong' either to conclude this year's 'Arc' was not the best for one reason or another; for instance, several well fancied runners performed well below expectations eg Postponed (her conqueror in the Coronation Cup/position), Makahiki, Harzand (ground/injury), etc; Found and jockey also had a 'dream' ride in the 'Arc'too.

Whichever race in the Breeders Cup AOB might run Found in I'd not be backing her, but possibly against her if the opposition is formidable despite her 'Arc' victory.

Regards Churchill, I'd backed him in both the Epsom Derby and 2000G and happy to do so even at the current price of 7/1 here for the former; the performances of the AOB runners in the Racing Post did not reduce the chance of him running in the former either, and his price could only contract between now and next year, all thing being equal. As for his breeding, I'm sure there had been others that ran in the race with greater stamina limitation.

Horse Racing is sport of opinions and as such, is opened to interpretation (enormously).
By:
unclepuncle
When: 26 Oct 16 17:41
impossible123 24 Oct 16 15:41
unclepuncle,

With due respect you are entitled to your opinions but bear in mind Horse Racing is not an exact science similar to Economics.


For the record I have a 2:1 degree in Economics from Leeds University.Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Oct 16 16:07
Yucatan, in the Racing Post and today Capri, in France - the two main hopes for AOB - have both crashed and burnt for the Epsom Derby it seems; I think desperate times call for desperate measures, and unless there is another one in his locker, AOB, would very possibly need to call upon the service of Churchill for this race. A Guineas and Derby double, what price I wonder?
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 30 Oct 16 16:26
there often is another one in the locker though - off the top of my head both Ruler of the World and US Army Ranger did n't make their racecourse debuts until they were 3yo.
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Oct 16 18:51
I think it is very unlikely now with three 'bullets' for the French race; Churchill is only 8/1 to win 2000G and Epsom Derby.
By:
A_T
When: 30 Oct 16 19:02
Today's G1 winner Waldgeist is part owned by Mr Magnier. Entered at Epsom. I'm sure though if you ask him nicely he'll run it in France instead. Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 30 Oct 16 22:27
Yes, but AOB will have Derby runners from 'Coolmore' ie Magnier, Smith and Tabor; there is no better than Churchill, the Dewhurst winner whose form has been upheld twice recently by the victories of Rivet and today by Thunder Snow.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Nov 16 19:22
Capri is out to 20/1 with 'Paddies' and others, the longest he has been since the french race.
By:
Tascro
When: 14 Nov 16 00:49
Any opinions on atty persse? Looked at his video of his win in sandown. Impressed, charlton not someone to drill them for first day out
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Mar 17 12:47
Churchill is heading straight to the 2000G at Newmarket, all being well, and a decision for this race will be made after.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 28 Mar 17 18:39
What's happening with Cracksman anybody know have £40 EW at 33/1. Brig what do you think?
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Mar 17 23:12
Hi Loto. I've backed the beast 21 times over the winter at a high of 40's and a low of 33's and in two doubles with winners. My biggest bet was a ton with the sky and the others are mostly 40s and a few 30s with various others. It will be my biggest win as a single bet on a single horse if it comes off. I'm not a big punter like some on here but it will be interesting.
Apparently the plan is the Dubai Duty Free conditions race at Newbury on 21st April then I will review my position about laying off to cover my stake or waiting for an opportunity to get my money back. At this time of year it is unlikely anything exceptional will have come onto the scene before he runs so if he bolts up I think his price will drop a good bit when you consider the owner and trainers record. Western Hymn took the same route, won the race at Newbury,  and his price dropped dramatically for the Derby in the same way even though Australia was an already strong ante post favourite that year and there is nothing in the race like that this year so I hope my long term plan pays off.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 29 Mar 17 06:58
Thanks Brig had my dosh on after what you initially wrote think might well be a good one price has dropped a little good luck and thanks for the reply. Might have another few quid on today to keep the interest going feeling flush looks an open year at the mo.
By:
brigust1
When: 29 Mar 17 11:02
I had another flutter as well Loto. I hope to get out early and sit with a good bet for nothing. And being by Frankel I guess the price will plummet if he wins well at Newbury. Good luck.
By:
Beryl
When: 29 Mar 17 20:00
Hi Brigust, do you mind if I ask why you are so keen on Cracksman?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 29 Mar 17 20:50
^While I have massive respect for his connections, and indeed Brigs judgementGrin, I can't see anything on his dams side that suggests he will relish 12f or have the required class.
Obviously Frankel, like Galileo, might be able to breed a lot of stamina and class into him but being his first crop we won't know fir a while. I won't be paying to find out.

Of all the Frankels I really like Eminent @ 40/1
By:
blackbarn
When: 29 Mar 17 21:12
Of all the Frankels I really like ElyaasaatCool.
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