Royal Hunt Cup - Royal Ascot June 15th

Here is what I consider as some key statistics on the Royal Hunt Cup. Correct/forgive me if anything is wrong.

Age

You’re really looking at the 4yo and 5yo horses, although in recent years it has been won by older horses in Field Of Dream and Prince of Johanne, they both had won a Class 2 handicap worth over £60,000 the previous year. That knocks out both Bronze Angel and Captain Cat but that does give a shout to Balty Boys who after all did win one over £40,000 and the Superior Mile (Group 3) which certainly was. He could be fairly handicapped on his 4th, not beaten far off 108 running last year if Brian Ellison puts up decent 5lb claimer Callum Shepherd. He had three winners from 13 rides for the stable last year (23%) and is 6-42 (14%) in 2016 and has 17 winners already this season. William Knight, where he was based before, let him ride Noble Gift without being able to claim off him in a listed race a Goodwood over 12f and he gave him a good front running ride, getting a place after pushing away well over 2f out and getting him to rally on well. I would not be too worried about Balty Boys recent form either.   

Weight

10 out of the last 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-5

This would appear to be against quite a few like Gm Hopkins, Buckstay, Convey (also never won over a mile) and the quartet of Saeed bin Suroor entries Basem, Mussadas, Carry on Deryck and Best Of Times (Also the quartet, unlike his previous winner Invisible Man, have not had a recent run) . No horse has managed to carry a penalty from around 20 runners in the last ten runnings, although 5 have been placed. Top weight is a no, no.

OR

Last 10 winners were officially rated between 93 and 103

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicaps (exception Prince of Johanne had won a class 2 handicap worth nearly 100K)

I am also put off in-form Mutawathea, Azraff, and  Can't Change It simply because they have run in too many handicaps for me.



I’m going to back Balty Boys on the day for a place.

But the one for me is definitely Mick Halford’s Portage. After the Britannia Stakes I backed him big time in his following three races. I love everything about the horse. He was impressive over the Ascot straight mile and his running in the Cambridgeshire Handicap showed he is well up to this. He’s fairly lightly raced and bound to be more the finished article this year, and definitely has more improvement on good ground. After my fillies or mares in the Queen Anne (Amazing Maria, Ervedya or Esoterique), Kings Stand (Acapulco) and Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Always Smile), I’m going in as large as possible considering how many days are left at the meeting. For what's it worth unclepuncle, it will be interesting which horse William Buick chooses to ride out of Secret Brief and Portage: I think and hope he will pick the better weighted Portage. Good luck all.

Portage won the Listed TRI Equestrian Silver Stakes over 10f at the Curragh on Saturday, 4 June. Although Halford is now looking towards Royal Ascot with the Godolphin-owned Portage, he mentioned he also has the option of the Wolferton.

With the possibility of him going elsewhere and key stat putting me off- No horse has managed to carry a penalty from around 20 runners in the last ten runnings, although 5 have been placed- I had a good look at replays for another arrow before the next Confirmation Of Entry Stage on Thursday,9th June.

It didn’t take long to see Secret Brief, the Lincoln winner, as an obvious player in this cavalry charge. He is kin tough this one (pretty smart as a juvenile), got a real finish in him. His half-brother Steeler coincidently finished 3rd in 2014 behind Field of Dream and Chil the Kite. There could be quite a bit more improvement in this Shamardal gelding on better ground. Taken 20/1 on here.

Montoria-

The last few years you have needed a rating in the late 90's (96+) to get in(max 30. Looking at this years entries you might just sneak in if rated 95 but to be guaranteed I would rather be much higher than that, given how many good class handicappers/twilight horses there are in training these days, and because this is a highly targeted and respected race.

I don’t think you will have any problem getting in- Mick Halford won’t run three, Portage is a possible for the Wolverton, both Basem and Algaith have not run for some time, past winner Belgian Bill did not run in it last year after having the same number of three races at Meydan, he instead won (awarded the race) the Betfred Mile after 4 months off. Will AOB run Dick Whittington who has never been over further than 7f and has only won over 6. Will last year’s winner GM Hopkins run here or in the Queen Anne? That’s a few entered to think about for you.

We've booked Pat Smullen.........but whether we keep him now is another matter.

A bit of J-CH magic is on the cards Madhu.....

And thank you so much for the input.

Montoria-

Take no notice of the uncle. I would like to think I would be as altruistic if I were lucky enough to have a horse with Ms Jane Chapple-Hyam.

Mudawin, Mull Of Killough, Klammer,  Energia Davos, and The Twisler are proof of what she can do with the right horses, analogous to David O'Meara; you are very lucky. Perhaps next year for me, you never know?

No offence meant, genuienly hope he wins or at least runs very well for you - might even have £2 on him on here at 50/1+ on the day if he gets a run.

I backed it on the all weather a few times and he is a decent horse, but I can't see anything in it's form (seems better at 9-10f on the all wetaher as well) that makes me think it can suddenly win a hugely competitive Royal Hunt Cup, and it's only previous run on the straight track at Ascot was lamentable - obviously you may know there was an excuse but I can only go on the form book. Obviously if JCH has found something that wasn't there before the he could be well treated.

He only needs 8 to come out- no problem getting in.

You may be able totally discount his running at Ascot in Victoria Cup; his last run on the turf, given he was off the course for 3 months afterwards, possibly something amiss.

He then become part of a group of Marco Botti horses that were specifically aimed at the AW to mop up the new money around over the winter from 2013 (MB doubled his winners total from the previous year, AW earnings over £200k). He remained there ever since obviously.

After todays confirmation stage we're at 32.

Should be ok.

gpz6316 - Best Of Times has not been confirmed at the 6 day stage.

Madhu - Basem (25/1) could be another interesting runner for Godolphin - goes well fresh?

Also Portage is strong on here (money on the lay side) with Secret Brief pretty weak and no money on the lay side?

Bad luck

Thank you Madhu.....it's getting a bit nervous in the Twis/Sunny household !!

Just hope that Sunny goes on the soft......Twisler loves it !!

Form book ?

will throw my hat in the ring
with BOOMSHACKERLACKER  50s who looks
to have been minded for something
since an eyecatching run in meydan
and INSTANT ATTRACTION 28s  who can run
nearer the pace, drawn probaly better.

Looks like middle to low has an advantage.

Mitchum Swagger

Taking a shot with Mr Owen...not being funny but there's about 20 other races he could've run in but they choose probably the most ludicrous in a 30 runner handicap @ royal ascot off 109.

trainer is a dab hand at Overseas raids and knows his International Group races inside-out so this is a most odd choice.

fwiw...thought he ran a fine trial last time...held and just breezed on through to finish 3rd to Ervedya and Vadamos.

Facts - Did you back Convey or Portage? Or both?

Think Madhu talked himself out of backing Portage after it won last week. Unlucky if he did as he was all over him before that.

Given Grand Inquisitor didnt get in I decided to take a poke at Spark Plug despite the ground reservations as I felt he had been laid out for it.

Racing Post synopsis - [i]Raced far side, held up in rear, not clear run 2f out, still behind and headway just over 1f out, closing when not clear run again and switched left inside final furlong, ran on strongly, no threat to leaders[/i]In other words unlucky. One to follow on better ground.

Well done winners!! Now for the Wokingham...

betilyerded



Backed both. Level win only. Portage 11/1 and  Convey 7/1