~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~

I get the impression you are concerned Postponed is going to bust it.




Who knows whether he will or not? I certainly don't. I try and deal only with probabilities and prices. Only a fool believes he knows who will win. At the prices Postponed is a lay and not a back play for me. If he wins, one result alters nothing as far as the case against older horses is concerned. They have a lot of ground to make up.I don't know whether either Harzand or Makahiki will win. I rate their combined  chance of doing  so much better than that of Postponed and at the prices they are a play. That's all I can say. I've been playing this game for 40 years and you don't survive very long if you won't understand what I'm on about.Bookmakers have their over-rounds, we have judgement, probabilities and value.

Really gutted that i cant have a proper bet in this years race - it would be silly of me to risk any part of my bank on the race as there are just too many questions and variables that are in my view not quantifiable.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on the French Pari Mutual Prices - its possible that Japanese horse could go as low as evens or even possibly odds on their equivalent to the English Tote  ....like Deep Impact did many years ago.

If i had a £500 free bet then id put £300 win on the fav at 2/1 , and 2 other crazy flyer £50 ew bets on Talismanic 40/1 and Order Of St George at 20/1 - and i wouldn't even be confident in any of those bets.


Good luck tomorrow everyone - hope you all enjoy all of the Group 1's throughout the day and manage to get a return on your bets.

Au Revoir

Sandown 01 Oct 16 23:18 Joined: 06 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 2,975 | Blogger: Sandown's blog
I get the impression you are concerned Postponed is going to bust it.




Who knows whether he will or not? I certainly don't. I try and deal only with probabilities and prices. Only a fool believes he knows who will win. At the prices Postponed is a lay and not a back play for me. If he wins, one result alters nothing as far as the case against older horses is concerned. They have a lot of ground to make up.I don't know whether either Harzand or Makahiki will win. I rate their combined  chance of doing  so much better than that of Postponed and at the prices they are a play. That's all I can say. I've been playing this game for 40 years and you don't survive very long if you won't understand what I'm on about.Bookmakers have their over-rounds, we have judgement, probabilities and value.

Oh I completely agree. Except, noone can give a definitive answer at this stage to whether Postponed is value or not. It's just subjective opinion. You use this five year old theory to back up your argument which is fair enough, but how many five year olds that have run in the Arc have gone into the race with his sort of profile? Plus the three year old crop this year looks very bad. Although again that's just my subjective analysis

RP says Vedivani will run in the same silks as Makahiki today :o

Is this a Typo?

It's in the Makahiki section...like the last paragraph.

Thought he was Harzand's pacemaker...didn't know the J aps purchased him to do a pacemaking job.

Btw...wouldn't surprise me if it's a typo...read though the paper front to the back and spotting mistakes all over the place.

And good god....i know they go for cheesy front pages but Postponed and the Raiders of the Lost Arc?

That's not cheesy....just boing....woooo raiders of the lost arc....wow...seriously.

....my fav of all time was back in the day with that old rogue TheRealBandit and picture of Martin Pipe as a Mexican bandit with the headline - welcome to bandit country.

Quite apt....

Will be backing Makahiki win and place...4 place option on here is good.

Just worried if Harzand will be fast enough to take this....I remember earlier in the season after he won his trial and Smullen was asked about his future prospects he said he would be perfect for the St Leger...plus there has to be element of him just outstaying USAR and Idaho rather than beating them for speed.

Makahiki will do for me...seems to save a fair bit up his sleeve for that final challenge and I quite like having a Lemaire on board....the Japanese jockeys have proved way too costly on their European raids.

Got a feeling the race will be set up for a fast closer in the final furlong rather than someone like Postponed or Harzand who will try and take up between the 3 and 2 pole....Makahiki can be the one.

Having done my dough ante-post on the unwilling and deceptive Zarak I am now scratching my head thinking what will finish behind Postponed. For intents and purposes he looks the winner, but not worthy of a bet at 2/1. Quite literally, just because it's the Arc, I've had another bet and backed Makahiki eachway with smaller stakes on Left Hand & The Grey Gatsby but it feels like a guess up.

There is not much difference on the pmu between Postponed and Makahiki and with the yen flying around later, it's not difficult to envisage Makahiki going off fav. Le Paris Turf is forcasting Postponed to be about a 9/2 chance.

Postponed is my idea of the winner..a lot has been said of 5yos, but he has been relatively lightly raced since last years Hardwicke. He's only raced 4 times since last years arc meeting and with the exception of the Hardwicke ( widely regarded as given a poor ride ) , he is unbeaten over 11f or more. Maybe, sometimes some races are quite obvious to call and to me this looks 1 of them.

Savoir Vivre deserves a second glance for each way purposes. Can't think of many German trained that run in the arc at 3, they usually give them time to mature and are rarely seen outside of Germany at 3. The trainer sounds quietly confident, but his race pattern is noticeable to me. Despite finishing a close second in the German derby, he seems to run best when fresh. A 5 week break from deauville looks ideal to him.

No overnight rain at Chantilly and the going is Good (3.1 on the penetrometer from 3.2 yesterday).

After backing Makahiki a couple of months ago ground conditions was my biggest worry but it has worked out pretty good for a change. All up to the horse and Lemaire now, hopefully a good pace and a clean race for all.

Had a small EW bet on Silgan's Saga at 100-1 (4 places), I think that price is a tad insulting. Backed her a few times over the last couple of years... why stop now?!

Good luck with your bets today.

May the best horse or horse with the most potential win the 'Arc' today. Also, good luck to all 'Found' backers!

According to the atr Sunday forum they had a bit of rain after racing yesterday.
Ground my be on the dead side of Gd if reports are right??
The early race times & reports will tell us more.
Can't go against Postponed myself, having followed him all year.
Price is not great to win an Arc 2s, but everything looks set for a mighty run from him, he's the best horse in the race in my book, so hopefully he gets a Gd trip all the way round & will take all the beating.
Like Found & Harzand for the places.
Q- has AOB not missed a trick here by not letting Seventh Heaven take her chance??? she's the best 3yo mile & a half filly in Europe imo.

lewisham ranger

how many five year olds that have run in the Arc have gone into the race with his sort of profile?

Treve just last year for example? Went off 2.2


noone can give a definitive answer at this stage to whether Postponed is value or not. It's just subjective opinion.

Not true. I can give a definite answer at this stage. All forerecasting/probability assessments of any type (economics, weather, politics, military planning,business etc) relies on a mixture of data of all descriptions, analysis, observation, experience, judgement. To call it just subjective opinion is to misunderstand what is involved. What is true, is that other people can and do interpret things differently which is why you will find backers of Postponed at the price. What matters is how your P&L looks at the end of the year, not today.

115 Harzand
114 New Bay
113 Postponed
113 Found
111 Highland Reel
??? Makahiki

Harzand was my long range idea of the winner as I felt the Derby form was top class and, knowing he would be put away for the summer, I felt Weld would bring him back to the boil nicely. However, there are several reasons to fret. Firstly, the Derby form has taken several knocks. I still believe it can probably be taken literally as strong staying form based on the runs of Idaho at York and Wings of Desire at Ascot. USAR probably peaked on the day and regressed after. So there are still reasons to believe the Derby form is good enough to prevail. However, secondly, Weld made what can only be called a serious error of judgement in prepping the horse in the hottest 10f race of the season. Excuses have been made for his showing but I’m not sure I believe they fully explain his performance. My view is he was unable to travel at good ten furlong pace, and the ground can have been no quicker than good, and was probably a good deal softer than that based on race times. Thirdly, I would have been interested in him at today’s prices had the ground come up soft. By all accounts, it hasn’t. So, finally, he has to run to peak form in the most competitive race he has encountered, coming back from a poor run and an injury. From a British racing fan’s perspective, I’d love to see him win as I always like seeing the Derby form upheld, but I think a horse’s prep race is critical and Weld made the wrong call.

Postponed has been the subject of fascinating debate on the thread and the way I have approached the race is to assume he will run to the rating I’ve assigned him. Having raced just twice since March, the colt is fresh and can be confidently expected to run right up to his best. However, I share the concern that he will struggle to improve on his rating. The question is whether anything can beat that.

I share Figgis’ view that Found ran a career best last time out. However, I also share the view that a horse who consistently comes second has to be viewed with some suspicion. There is also the view that she is best at ten furlongs, which I share. I am happy to say that Found and Postponed are basically the same horse on figures, and even if Found can replicate her figure at 12, if it came down to a battle, I suspect Postponed would find extra.

New Bay has to be taken seriously after running a big race on figures in last year’s renewal. Fabre’s choice of prep was again slightly curious but it was possible to believe this colt was best at ten furlongs. It was an encouraging prep and Fabre’s status compels respect for this horse’s chances of going close. However, I feel he might have been running out of stamina last year, and if this is a stiffer finish he will probably come up short again. However, he might represent a bit of value.

Left Hand has to be of academic interest as the sole 3yo filly, certainly progressive but done no favours by the draw. She will need to improve massively to win and I won’t be cheering her on, but I could see her running on for some prize money.

Makahiki is tempting but to what extent is this because none of the Europeans quite fits the bill? Firstly, he has had the ideal prep. Not fully exposed, capable of improvement, he has enjoyed a nice prep, winning the Niel with little fuss albeit in unspectacular style – but who wants to leave their big race behind in the trial? Secondly, I wonder if this track might just suit the Japanese style of racing better than Longchamp, which I feel suits quickeners rather than gallopers, and Japanese racing looks to be all about sustained galloping to me. We all face the same dilemma: how to slot him into our ratings systems. There’s always a bit of guesswork involved. Let’s compare him with Kizuna, the last Japanese winner of the Niel. Kizuna won a hard fought Niel against Ruler of the World, earning an rpr 2 lbs higher than Makahiki. However, Makahiki won his trial a shade cosily and had been rated 5 lbs higher than Kizuna on their best Japanese 12f form. Kizuna ran well in the arc to come 4th, well beaten by Treve but a couple of lengths behind Orfevre and Intello, given an rpr of 121. It’s reasonable to conclude that Makahiki might run to 126 today on that same rpr scale. That puts him right there in the mix today. His draw looks worrying but he would be held up anyway.

My conclusion is a tentative one but I think Makahiki is value. I’m going to have a go at the tricast:
Makahiki, Postponed, Found / New Bay / Left Hand

I think Seventh Heaven is being saved for the Fillies and Mares Stakes against Zhukova at Ascot on 15th Oct. Also, she'd like good/fast ground.

Sandown

You are marking Postponed down because of the five year old angle as apparently they don't win this race very often.

Surely then it is hypocritical to then tip up Makahini, given that Japan have yet to win the Arc?

For me, the Irish Champion Stakes was the best non sprint race this year. Found, a filly who previously I thought had been overrated, ran a career best by 9lbs on my figures. It was as good as anything put up by Postponed and with her fillies allowance she has the beating of him even if he does run to form, which I have some doubt about. I think she stays 12f perfectly well. The Japanese runner is an unknown to me so I can't rule out him being something special but I can't worry about that too much, I'd say it's more likely he's been overrated and his price looks pretty short to me. So I've not just backed Found as some value bet against the fav, she is actually fav in my book. Of course I could be wrong about the value of the Irish Champion, Found might have just ran up to previous form in which case she'd probably struggle to make the places. I'll find out today but at the prices I've taken I reckon it's well worth the risk and even if I wasn't already on at bigger prices I'd still see her as value here.

lewisham ranger

Surely then it is hypocritical to then tip up Makahini, given that Japan have yet to win the Arc?

I'll try to explain it to you but "hypocritical" is not the word to use. It's not what it means.

The record of previous Japanese horses is in itself of no relevance. The events are unrelated. It would be like saying that because Dermot weld has not yet won the Arc despite previous attempts at it, he cannot win it this year. common sense tells you that a trainers who set the path to winning overseas in the |Breeders Cup, the Melbourne Cup and elsewhere , must know a thing or two. It can only be that he hasn't yet had the right horse.With the Japanese, you could say that their trainers are on a steep learning curve with regards to Euopean racing, but there is plenty  of evidence that they are learning fast.


The argument for age being a factor is to do with classic horses being retired early to stud so that the best don't stay around to race at an older age, to do with the WFA scale which the authorities have now recognised, and with the way in which 3 yr olds are more capable of showing improvement even without the assistance of the WFA scale. Simply put, older horses not only do not show the same amount of improvement, they also show a greater degree of regression.

However, nothing is set i stone. There will always be exceptions and perhaps Postponed is one such case.

Whether you wish to take this on board is entirely up to you.

1.Postponed. Backed to win
2. Order of St Gerge. Ground and trip against and no bet.
3.Left Hand. Backed each way and traded.
4.New Bay. Backed each way and traded.
5.Silverwave. Backed each way and traded.

Allez!!

Postponed is gen 2s with most books, bit on the tight side for trying to win an Arc, even Imo not a great 1 today.
Will hold fire for the PMU prices before playing, hopefully he's bigger on that.

Harzand's been backed into as short as 5/1 with some but 9/2 without Postponed (2/1), is that not value or a red herring?

now Almanzor's out ,think this is Postponed's
for the taking,done nothing wrong all season.
   GL ALL.

Obviously only one race to judge by but looks a bit quicker than yesterday, probably still good ground but on the faster side.

Makahiki 3.6 fav on the PMU with Postponed 3.9

Winners for me: Silverwave (big), Migwar (big), Left Hand

red everything else

Small win and place on Left Hand, she's a 3yo filly on the upgrade, and can improve again.

GL all.

If Postponed is 3/1 it is a stonking bet for this race given the ground could be against some of his principal rivals.

Sandown, I am really playing devil's advocate in this case. In fact I have backed the Japanese horse. So I am hoping you are right.

Actually I think we would have had several five year old winners if horses like Sea the stars had stayed in training. How many Arcs could he have won? And horses like Ribot and Alleged would surely have had an outstanding chance of winning at five had they been given the chance. But such is the vagaries of the breeding industry.

Still I am not completely convinced of the argument that a five year old postponed would have a worse chance than a four year old postponed. If he loses today, it's not because of his age. It's because he's not good enough.

I mean the argument with Postponed, do you really think that he's regressive based on his profile? He seems to be improving with age.

The weight for age issue is harder to deny, although three year olds have less of an advantage in that respect as the season wears on.

Pretty fast time for Speedy Boarding, would have to call it good to firm for the longer distances.

PMU flip flop,Posponed in to 3.0, Makahiki out to 4.2

Highland Reel at 30 on here and 7.4 a place I think is the value bet

If he loses today, it's not because of his age. It's because he's not good enough

This one is a circular argument - if he is not good enough is it because he is now 5 years old?

Very few top horses are kept in training until 5. Treve was thought to have a good chance but before that probably have to go back to Mtoto to find one expected to win.

Well done Figgis stuck to you guns mate despite all the flak

Well done Figgis

let the carnage begin....harzand beaten before the home turn, Makahiki found nothing when asked, a horse smashed up by Wicklow brave finishes third.

Just watching the replay-do you think Frankie was waiting for Ryan on FOUND? Seemed to be looking over his left shoulder a little.....after you mate! :-)

That was no Arc de Triomphe

That was like running the Derby at Brighton, it just wasn't the same.

Irish Champion form again

WD figgis but a poor race for me but not bad for AoB

Very well done Figgis, tip my hat to you.

Sandown 5yo stats holds true.

MrDinos unlucky my friend.

impossible123 nice to have known you mate. On your way.

Well done Figgis - you've been saying it loud and clear for three weeks and you've been proved right with no excuses for anything else.

They really need to hurry up at Longchamp. That didn´t feel like an Arc.

you have to say it's a great training performance plus excellent tactical execution.

Ironically the stat that caught my eye this morning was that AOB had only 1 winner and 1 placed horse from 27 Arc runners in the last 10 years.

Well done winners.

Coolmore communications going off the hook - "1-2-3 for super sire Galileo"

:o

Well done Figgis and other Found backers, O'Brien got the tactics spot on with his horses. Makahiki was bitterly disappointing but I got my money back with Silgan's Saga nabbing some place money!

Brilliant call, Figgis. very well done

Figgis
  wd
  GL

Well, I expected that Postponed might regress, but Harzand, Makahiki, New Bay as well? Found is extremely consistent and unfortunately for me if she hadn't run I would have collected on either Highland Reel or OOSG

Very, very, very well done to every backer of FOUND! Today was the crowning glory day for her - very well done!
I could NOT be more WRONG today, but hey, you know how humbling horse racing can be. Extremely good right by Ryan Moore!

Dismal showing from the 3yos

Cheers lads

impossible123 you have been impossible on a number of occasions during this thread but you made a promise. Are you going to stick to it.

impossible123 said-

if Found runs and wins this year's 'Arc' I'd give up horse racing immediately, and that's a PROMISE!

Yoooooooooooooo de man Figgis.

Shame Protectionist picked up an injury. Rescued from Australian animal cruelty to winning the Arc. What a story that would have been. He had Savoir Vivre covered by half a track through German form lines.

Wow - She's AMAZING ... if it wasn't for her HR would have netted me my biggest ever win (chipped away all year at 200+), but she was a very nice winner in my book,

The Galileos are freakishly incredible, Coolmore right to play it up,

Stay in training next year !?!? That'd cap the season off for me, I love this filly.

Fair result. Well deserved too. Real luck for Found was Rougets not turning up. In the race though she did very well.

looking forward to HR and OoSG retiring to NH Stud in Tipperary ! :D Jesus the Sires we have are phenomenal

Oct 2, 2016 -- 12:05PM, Graeme83 wrote:

Fair result. Well deserved too. Real luck for Found was Rougets not turning up. In the race though she did very well.

Graeme, I'll tell you what - look at the # of Group 1 runners turned around in quick time, and see how many of them win again - then check how many of the winners are trained by AO'B ,

Don't think Almanzor would have won - wouldn't have stayed on.

Such a pleasing result considering I didn't have a penny on her.

well done figgis

Good performance, I rate around 125-126, not a great year.

just looking at the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) (2yo Colts & Fillies) (Turf)

National Defense impressive, possible rating 115-116P, and a major form boost for Akihiro potential 123 horse and worth upgrading current rating (how you see fit?)

And  horses like Seven Heavens and Churchill must be followed.

Ratings could maybe better than expected next year(something to look forward too)

very wd winners...lovely ride from moore, not sure what lemaire was doing but the horse wasn't good enough...not to bad for me as did fancy the filly in the end as discussed earlier in the thread but no great profit as had had a decent bet on makahiki...brutal for you sandown laying her must of hurt, chin up it's a horrible game

some of the stuff written on here in recent days about found was just madness but it didn't dampen the thread for me, as just scrolled straight past these posts as it got very tiresome

What happened to the 3 yr olds this year? On RPR's Harzand ran -14 vs PB, Makahiki -25, Left Hand -13, Talismanic -3. Only Savoir Vivre posted an improved rating of 5. No excuses as far as I could see as it was a strong even pace and the form looks reliable although it will go on record as no better than average.Harzand may need soft ground to show anything as he lacks sufficient pace on good fast ground and yesterday it was faster than Saturday. But Makahiki's poor showing is inexplicable. Perhaps something will come to light. I don't see what was wrong with the preparation and the vibes were good. Very odd. The draw is not the full explanation there.

I didn't think that Found was as good over 12f as 10f. Well, that proves me wrong on that score. She is very consistent and I will take note of the fact that when the horse shows that it comes to hand at a particular time of the year, as she does, then it matters a lot. The Irish Champion stakes form was a crucial pointer and |I've upgraded that by a couple of pounds now. I rate her 2lbs better than the RP for her win on 126.

What a training performance by AOB. Comments on thsi thread by some that he s ability to train Arc winners? That poster needs a rethink. I had the second and third as good winners in my book and Found was a loser for me only because on the day I topped up Harzand and Makahiki and reduced my liability on Postponed otherwise it would have been a breakeven race.To think that I had originally taken prices of 55.0 on Found and had her as a big winner at one point. Idiot that I am.

Postponed duly ran below his best and adds to the hypothesis that 5 yr olds have something of a poor record in this particular race. I will continue to be against them in future until such time that the theory is proved wrong.

No the outcome didn't hurt especially Harry as I don't expect to win every race and my risk was managed. But a poor return for the input on the race compared with very little time and effort I spent on recouping some of the loss on Limato. No regrets on that score though as I enjoy the process on what I bekieve to be the best race in thw world and so much can be learned from the study that is applicable elsewhere. So I shall be back next year on this thread but that's it with the possible exception of the Derby.

Good luck to everybody who has made useful postings - you know who you are. As do the ***** who try to spoil the whole thing. But I somehow doubt that you know who you are.

Some interesting and highly readable posts on this thread...part of the enjoyment of a big race.Having got over the disappointment of Harzand,who never at any stage of the race looked like getting into it,I notice that the first three were all drawn high...whether that's a sign of a draw bias I doubt ...just the way it happened

If he had run Seventh Heaven and Idaho I expect O'Brien would have had the first 5 home.

Hi S and congratulations for your unrelenting stoicism with regard to Found, Figgis. It does you credit. I did back her but only because I backed her last year. Then as the opposition changed shape her chances became clearer.

As you say S the result was inexplicable in some respects but I will not wow too much about AOB's first three home. There were loads of no hopers and if you take out Postponed who you were already against, the 3 year olds who were expected to run better and the poor ride given to New Bay then the first three home were all that was left. I've never been enamoured by the mass runners AOB has in races simply because he has them so he has to get it right sometimes. If, however he does the same thing again then I will be forced to change my view. One swallow does not a summer make. Just as I wouldn't expect you to change your view if Postponed had won what looked beforehand like a poorish Arc. 

Anyway on a positive note Figgis's unrelenting defence of Found was absolutely commendable and, for me, was a highlight of this particular thread.

I'm writing this through a third party and will be away for a few weeks so have a good Christmas all and good luck.

Ta brigust

Did everyone get on my NAP Found ? hope so , another arc winner for me .

Hope you took my advice Figgis .

I backed Silverwave.
I should have realised the Irish Champion Stakes was the best race of the year.
Take out Almanzor, and bet the narrow loser, Found.
The girls have won five of the last six Arcs.

2 horses in the last 30 years have won the Arc having run more than 6 times that season before the race

Dylan Thomas and Found

both years, Champions missed the race due to injury, Manduro and La Cressonniere

Obrien does not prepare horses optimally for this race, which might sound silly after him having the 1-2-3, but his 3 runners fell into the race, only Found could arguably have been targetted at the the race and even she was poorly prepared to win as history shows

It was a shockingly poor Arc, the winner is the biggest villain since The Fugue and she got an absolute dream trip

]Not sure that I read any mention of Found in Oct 1 post. Must have missed it - must be in there somewhere



Rozelkid Oct3

Did everyone get on my NAP Found ? hope so , another arc winner for me .

Hope you took my advice Figgis .




RozelKid Oct 1
Really gutted that i cant have a proper bet in this years race - it would be silly of me to risk any part of my bank on the race as there are just too many questions and variables that are in my view not quantifiable.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on the French Pari Mutual Prices - its possible that Japanese horse could go as low as evens or even possibly odds on their equivalent to the English Tote  ....like Deep Impact did many years ago.

If i had a £500 free bet then id put £300 win on the fav at 2/1 , and 2 other crazy flyer £50 ew bets on Talismanic 40/1 and Order Of St George at 20/1 - and i wouldn't even be confident in any of those bets.

LOL, ask figgis - he knows i tipped her up .

watching the race back for the first time, I cant believe how poor it was, Highland Reel, Order Of St George and Siljans Saga

Id be utterly astounded if LC wouldnt have won that

The time was obviously the fastest Arc ever, but also faster than the fastest 2400 metres Prix du Jockey Club (strangely named by the French in honour of the English Jockey Club).

Racing Post by Stuart Riley

Position is so important at Chantilly. Ignoring the Abbaye as it is over a straight 5f, not a single winner of a Group 1 travelled more than one wide around Chantilly's long sweeping home bend. While Found scraped paint and Order Of St George and Highland Reel travelled one off the rail, the better fancied Postponed and Makahiki found themselves three and five wide respectively - and never landed a blow.

I think Stuart Riley summed it up pretty well, there was definitely a golden highway at the track on Sunday. Any horse that raced wide in all the races had no chance and even horses that were held up in the races on Saturday and Sunday struggled to land a blow. Team O'Brien got their horses into superb positions and capitalised on good early moves, brilliantly done IMO and the winner Found the rest out. Well deserved win for her, gutsy and super consistent, she ain't no villain.

I got a few things wrong (Madhu/Sandown apologies) and few things right yesterday but that's horse racing, some good debates/posts. Thankfully after all my posts about Makahiki, Siljan's Saga came late to the party and got me out of the plop.

The sooner this race is back at Longchamp the better.

MrDinos such is life, we debate and try to make sense of all the lead up to the race and sometimes we just get it completely wrong on certain horses and that can be down to a multitude of legitimate reasons, and the notion of a super highway and positioning is a possibility for the outcome on Sunday. I remember when your ‘monster’ just didn’t turn up in the Queen Anne, I really felt for you because of all your hope and anticipation concerning the horse (even though I thought he would be totally out of his comfort zone)but I certainly do not feel the same for those who superhyped the ‘watercress’ French filly and they are still talking twaddle about her being a ‘champion’ and dreaming about if she had run, she would of won. Your post describing and comparing the Japanese input in the Arc past and present made good reading and I look forward to that sort of insightful musing in the future. I totally flip flopped on Makahiki’s chances because of poor research on my part and even though it turned t its up after I went in on the horse, I was pleased the plodder got a well-deserved place. I would be interested on your view of Pakistani Star and whether you see him being targeted at any European races. Bee lucky.

Id be utterly astounded if LC wouldnt have won that




Yaaaawn......

v ditto

Yep, totally agree Madhu. Able Friend lost his race before the start at Royal Ascot (meltdown moment), you never know or can predict these things happening, especially when you back ante-post. It's the same with track conditions/bias or draws, very hard to calculate but I will not take anything away from the winner or the horses that placed, they ran the best on the day. OOSG looked liked he was going to retreat at one point but he must of hit a flat spot because he rallied and stayed on well... he's not a plodder like me!

Japan Times, Christophe Lemaire

“I’m sorry about this. It’s disappointing,” Lemaire said. “It was difficult from the last turn. He couldn’t pace himself. He had a hard time relaxing and ran out of gas quickly.

“I can’t explain right now what went wrong. He was fine before the race started. His condition was perfect.”

Hard to fathom how bad he was!

Pakistan Star looks very promising, he needs to sort his starts out though because he will not be able to get away with it in group races. He has been very slow out of the gates.

Hard races in the beginning of the season took the edge off Harzand in the Arc

Pat Smullen feels hard races in the early part of the summer probably took the edge off Harzand in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Having won the Investec Derby in June and the Dubai Duty Free-sponsored Irish equivalent just weeks later, the Dermot Weld-trained colt could manage only ninth behind an Aidan O'Brien one-two-three headed by Found at Chantilly, following on from a similarly disappointing Irish Champion Stakes performance.

Smullen said: "I was a little bit disappointed as we were expecting a big run, but he just didn't fire at all. I think he's a horse who put so much into the first half of the year and had very hard races in two Derbys and maybe he gave his all in the first half of the year. It may have left its mark but I have no excuses with the ground. He has been a brilliant racehorse and is a dual Derby winner so you can't take that away from him. He's a very, very good horse, but was just a better horse in the first half of the year."

Irish Field

Id be utterly astounded if LC wouldnt have won that

On all known form La C would have had a good view...

of the backside of...

Europe's Champion Filly

only Found could arguably have been targetted at the the race and even she was poorly prepared to win as history shows

come again !?

She started the season beaten 8L in a Listed race, then got up in a G3 (and this is a Boussac winner, BC Turf winner),

That's when AO'B said:

“She’s starting to turn into something very special. After the Tattersalls Gold Cup we’ll have the option of the Coronation Cup or the Prince of Wales’s and then no matter what she’ll have a break after that. Then she’ll come back and be trained for the autumn with the Arc in mind.”


Brought to a bit of pitch before being backed off again, then showed she was serious in the Irish Champion, and with her ground she won the Arc pretty bloody easily !

Nice aftertiming from Smullen - simply not good enough on the day, end of.

For me the 2016 Arc shows just how difficult it is to arrive in early October with a horse capable of winning the best race over 12f in Europe in the peak of condition. What is astounding is how AOB managed to do it with not just one but three horses. Whilst Found rightly got the plaudits surely the performance of OOSG deserves a special mention. Here is a horse who has won the Ascot Gold Cup over 20f being brought back to finish third in a 12f race on ground that didn't play to his stamina, yet managed to place. I do wonder about the Irish St Leger run however. Was it used purely as a prep? Was it deliberately not ridden to have a hard race? Surely it would have been the ideal horse for the Melbourne Cup?

The running of Harzand and Makahiki is still a mystery to me. They both ran well below form so to say that Harzand was just not good enough is the result of  superficial analysis. If he had been beaten into a place then I would agree but he wasn't good enough. But,neither he nor Makahiki showed up. Makahiki ran -14 PB and Makahiki ran -25 PB . Weld is a world class trainer with nothing to prove yet he couldn't manage it. Given the very positive vibes coming from both stables, how can we as punters get a handle when horses might regress? For Postponed, the extensive history of poor runs by older horses proved to be a useful guide yet again, as he ran -9 PB, but here were a couple of classic winning 3 year olds who just weren't as good as they were earlier in the year and who were apparently training well.

But it wasn't just these 2 who didn't show. Silverwave ran 23 lbs below , Left Hand ran -13, New Bay ran -6 (even Fabre was putting out positive vibes). So why did so many fancied horses run below par. The RP has raised Found +2 which I would agree with and HR is rated +1 and OOSG -3.

The clear conclusion is not just that Found won it without having to find much in the way of improvement but just as importantly many others lost it running well below their best form.

Was it something to do with the course, I wonder? Was there a favoured strip where the turf was unpoached since June's Derby meeting? There were comments about the winners on the day all being on the pace? The ground certainly rode pretty fast compared to Saturday.



That's what makes horse racing a fascinating combination game of probability and lottery. We can't ever know it all.

"game of judgement and lottery" I meant to say

HARZAND ran -14 PB

I'd agree that when you take out the principals there wasn't a lot left to challenge,

On Makahiki, he didn't even cross my mind - the Japanese form is let down so very often, and his run in the Niel was unremarkable,

W Harzand, my own thoughts are that the ground was a big contributing factor even if he ran below what should still have been his race,


I don't think Weld gets as much improvement from his horses as AO'B - Weld has great facilities but they are nothing compared to Ballydoyle.

The panel on ATR alluded to the cost to 'Coolmore' the win of Found in the 'Arc' ie had she not run the winner would be Highland Reel (a colt) despite them pocketing over £3.5m in prize money in the race.

I don't think the panel know what they're talking about in that case, imp!  Who said that?

The chair was Cattermole and the panels comprised Jim McGrath (Australian) plus another Jim and another whose name escaped me - they were clearly alluding/hinting to the financial costs to 'Coolmore' with Highland Reel and Order Of St George finishing 2nd and 3rd respectively.

They're talking absolute bollox Imp.  The Arc has never been a stallion-making race, certainly not for Coolmore anyway.  HR didn't win a European turf G1 at 2 or 3, which is pretty essential if you're trying to make a stallion.  Coolmore are also overloaded with sons of Galileo. If Found hadn't run and he won the race it would barely have caused a ripple in his stallion fee.  It's possible/probable he won't even stand in Europe when he retires.  Order Of St George is clearly going to be Coolmore Aus or NH. They've lost nothing.

Highland Reel or Order Of St.George winning the Arc would have had little impact on their stud value imo. Both are too exposed and don't have a sexy profile - was Marienbard suddenly a hot stallion prospect after his shock win?

If Harzand had won that would have been a very different story.

I understand, it was not Us Army Ranger who finished 2nd, was it? It just goes to show the depth of all round horse/breeding knowledge of some of these panel participants.

an Arc win might have made them attractive for an overseas buyer maybe the Japanese (with Coolmore retaining a stake, of course )

I think that if I was in Magnier's shoes I would be pretty pleased with the result.

1. Coolmore 1-2-3 in the most prestigious middle distance turf race in the world confirming their status as the world's top breeders by a mile

2. Galileo 1-2-3 ditto as world's top turf stallion

3. History making effort wont harm their prospects of attracting more of biggest bloodstock investors around the world

4. Prizemoney will pay for a few expenses

5. Confirmed AOB's status as the most prolific G1 winning trainer in the world - past or present


I'm sure that the result exceeded their wildest expectations.

I did a bit of searching a while back and learned that about 10 Arc winners were sold to Japan.
If a colt won he would be going there imo.  I'm guessing Highland Reel will go to Japan.

I went through my big Arc book and learned that the 1,2 was done before by a trainer, and the 1,2 done by a stallion, and strangely the 1,2 done by a dam (everyone mentions the sire, nobody mentions the dam).
How many times has a trainer entered three in the race that were all running on their merits not one as a pacemaker?
How many times has there been three or more runners by the one sire?
The 1,2,3 in 2016 might be the first time it was attempted by a trainer (or stallion), and although headline grabbing it might not merit the attention it is given.