Ervedya - Queen Anne.

the horse who beat her today,Vadamos,
was btn well by Solow a couple of runs ago.
Should imagine the Ervedya camp were expecting
a better show today,8/11 btn over 3L.

If it goes to ascot maybe it could be the duke of cambridge ?

The odds just reflect her achievements Penzance. Vadamos ran in the Champions Stakes last season and whilst he was disappointing he was highly regarded by Fabre. Yesterday he was race fit and better off at the weights with Ervedya. Then when you consider the way the race was run he was in poll position.

Solow did beat him aye, but that's why he is 6/4 for the race.

She is in that race too Graeme but it's a Group 2 and I think she'll still be penalised in it. That said maybe they are keeping their options open as it's still a good race to win.

Tepin is another older filly who has been beating up the opposition in the USA, she'd be a very interesting runner, if she comes over.

Time Test running in this race will depend on how runs in the Lockinger stakes in two week time. If he places in the first three you'd imagine it would have been a prep for the Queen Anne or POW.

Toormore is next in the market who is decent yardstick but nothing extraordinary.

I just think Ervedya should be around the 8/1 mark in the current market not 16/1.

Agree with your price view Sint, she should not be that price ?  Classic winner, already won @ the Royal Meeting & she handles most grounds, overpriced @ 16s.

sintonian you put the filly up twice last year for good returns, on reading the update concerning Solow and his race against time to get to Ascot, I've gone in at 16's on Ervedya with you. Agree way overpriced.

Yep she was one to follow last season. Her and Found were outstanding at 2 & 3, hopefully they will prove it at 4 too. There form ties in very well with each other.

She was my biggest winner for 3 years when she won the Coronation Stakes so assuming she is being aimed at it (has there been any comment from connections after Sunday?) then she is overpriced @ 16/1 - even more so if Solow doesn't make the gig. Not that keen on anything that is being aimed at the Lockinge and Tepin is hard to evaluate, so I'd have her as favourite.

I've had 3pts win, 1pt place.

I'd be even keener still if it was run on the round course as she seems at her best going right handed.

“She was carrying more weight than most of her opponents but was on the same weight as the winner. However, unlike the winner who had already had a run this season, this was a first start for her. She will come on from that. I was pleased with the way she finished her race as I had given orders not to be too tough on her first time out. I didn’t want her to be exhausted as she has the summer and the autumn to look forward to. She will target either the Queen Anne Stakes or the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes next. She can go in any ground.”


From the stable tour on ATR website.

Only just seen this from Tuesday.

Last year’s winner of the opening race of the royal meeting knocked a leg last month in a gallop prior to a defence of his Dubai Turf title, which prevented him from travelling to Meydan.
Trainer Freddy Head was eyeing the Group One Prix D’Ispahan, run this year on May 24 at Chantilly, for the seasonal return for the Wertheimer brothers’ five-time Group One winner, but plans for the grey to win the Ispahan again 12 months on from beating Gailo Chop have been scuppered.
“Solow is not going to run in the Prix D’Ispahan as it will come too quick for him,” Head said from Chantilly on Tuesday.
“His setback before Dubai took a long time to heal but he is better now.
“We don’t yet know if he will run at Royal Ascot, we are playing it by ear.
“I’m not sure what else I am going to bring to Ascot – we’ve got a few runners over the next week or so and we’ll see from there.”

the American monster Mare, Tepin, is coming over. Having a saver on her at 8/1, win only.

Tepin will go by the wayside the same as the Honk Kong monster last year over the Ascot straight mile after eating English green pasture for a few weeks. There have been plenty of fancied fillies or mares who have run in this in the last ten years and Goldikova became the first since it was upgraded in the 1970's to actually win when beating Paco Boy. Although Jean-Claude Rouget states she is also a possible in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, I don't think he will take a pass at equaling Goldikova- odds on she is being aimed at a weakened Queen Anne over the straight mile with the possible absence/ or interupted preparation of Solow. Moreover, I would hazard a guess she is will turn out better than last years second, the mare Esoterique. You could also question the class of Time Test over a mile. I have topped up at 14's. Roll on the second week in June.

Roger Charlton did have his Royal Ascot winner entered in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury this weekend but his name was not among the five-day acceptors.

Charlton is hoping a run in Ireland will put him spot on for a return to the Royal meeting, but whether that is for the Queen Anne Stakes over a mile or the 10-furlong Prince of Wales's Stakes has yet to be decided.

"If the ground is suitable, he'll run in the Tattersalls Gold Cup," said Charlton.

"As for Ascot, we'll see what happens in Ireland. I notice he's a shorter price for the Queen Anne than the Prince of Wales's.

"We'll see, but at this stage I see him as a 10-furlong horse."

Solow- "He's back training away and everything is going as it should," said Pierre-Yves Bureau, racing manager to Solow's owners, the Wertheimer brothers. "It is so far so good, but it is still too early to say where his next race might be. If he's ready in time for Ascot then great, of course we'll be there."But it is still a month and a half away and Freddy has not really asked him any serious questions yet."

Aidan O'Brien- Vancouver '..if he is going to be ready for Royal Ascot, where he will probably go for the Golden Jubilee."

I could be wrong but I think I read somewhere that Ryan Moore disagreed with Henry Candy over whether Limato would stay a mile, I don't think he will be as effective at the trip so another one could bite the dust at the weekend?

Looks a very interesting bet thanks Sintonian, struggling to see why she is still 16/1

Waiting to have a bet in this race, and got an eye on a mare as well, but for me Amazing Maria looks the value of the race.

Vastly improved last year and also won at Ascot, albeit in a Group 2. She gave Ervedya 7lb's and beat her well enough in Deauville yet they will run off levels in this, so I personally struggle to see how Ervedya would turn that around on 7lb worse terms. Bit of a disappointing debut this season, but she did the same last year and appears to need a couple of runs to put her spot on, and has always shown her best form in the summer.

The only issue is knowing which race she will go for... just like Ervedya, she may well go for the Duke of Cambridge. Holding back from pulling the trigger for now...

Forgot to add her price looks a rick with sporting bet if you can get a bet on at 33's. As low as 12's in places. 25/1 with Fred.

Can't Catch me-

Been thinking the same for a while and had a punt on Amazing Maria at 34's on here. I can't see either Ervedya or AM racing in Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes to be honest with Solow having a race against time to get there,the US mare Tepin having the Ascot straight mile to contend with, and both Time Test and Vancouver being aimed elsewhere. Two multiple Group 1 winners and both in double digits is hard to believe.

The other thing to worry about is whether Tepin has been pumped up like the other Bernstein offspring Karakonitein her racing. She wont be running on that juice over here!

Guess it all depends on how she fares against the boys in the Lockinge Madhu, as that looks her next target. If she runs well then I'm sure they will go for this...

Last year she started out in a handicap, then a Group 2 prior to Ascot. This season she started out in a Group 2 before being aimed at a Group 1, so it certainly appears that her sights have been raised. And so they should be I suppose after winning two Group 1's against her own sex already.

Tepin could clearly be anything, but I tend to ignore the overseas runners in races like this now. Ive got a mate who can get a bet on with sporting who has just got me some 33/1 on Amazing Maria. Result. He might not be thanking me if she wins

Can't Catch me-

Cor all still has Amazing Maria at 14's for Saturday's straight mile in the Lockinge.......what you waiting for?

Think this might come too soon for her mate.... She has needed her first couple of runs the past two seasons, and it would be hard to be confident of her winning this after her first run. Just hoping she runs well enough to make them target the QA over the DoC

Only difference is David O'Meara  only got her last spring, he knows the mare now. I think you will see a much different mare on Saturday and I hope Olivier Peslier turns up with her.

Maybe so mate. Hope you are right and good luck if you have backer her! Happy to cheer her on with the Queen Anne in mind myself

France: Solow ruled out of defending Ascot title

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/france-solow-ruled-out-of-defending-ascot-title/2079591/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

More on the giant US mare Tepin-https://www.thoroughbredracing.com//articles/mark-casse-key-factors-make-our-training-operation-so-strong

Tepin’s Mile win puts her in the running for an Eclipse Award, but the filly Found also beat males in the Turf. If you were making a case to the voters for Tepin, what would it be?

“I don’t even think it is close. If you’re looking at Tepin, she’s won five races this year. She has run triple-digit Beyer numbers; she’s six to eight inches away from being undefeated this year. When you look at Found, yes, she did beat males, but I think John Gosden [the trainer of Golden Horn] would be the first to tell you that [Golden Horn] probably didn’t perform up to par. Found beat him, but she beat him on a turf that he may or may not have liked. “Found is [2 for 8] this year. If Found deserved an Eclipse, let her come over here four or five times and run with the consistency that Tepin ran with. Tepin has done it everywhere, too. She did it at Gulfstream; she did it at Churchill Downs; she did it at Belmont; and she did it at Saratoga and Keeneland. Can you give a championship to a horse who ran one time in the U.S.? If it had been just a mediocre year for our fillies, and there was no standout in the U.S., then maybe you could consider one race. “Tepin didn't just beat colts; she annihilated them. Of course, I’m sure I have a biased opinion.”

And more on Mark Casse’s liberal use of Lasix- https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/mark-casse-reasons-race-day-lasix-essential-america

This non-pumped up mare will be toast 2f out by my reckoning. Her odds without a nought on it is kin robbery!

CCM, the 7lb was wait for age. I'd also say it's possible Ervedya ran flat that day having had a hard race in the Coronation Stakes previously, on top of her French Guineas win. But that's just a personal view. It's not easy for horses to keep rattling off Group 1's, she won 3 out of 4 last season which is pretty spectacular.

I know it was mate. But it won't be there this season. Ervedya needs to have progressed quite a bit to make up the difference though.

Amazing Maria won 2 from 3 which is none too shabby either

Amazing Maria loves a straight track too - Erveyda prefers going right handed.

25/1, with Solow a definite n/r, is too big to resist so have added 1pt on AM to my Erveyda bet - both bound to go for the fillies Gp2 now,

The way you spoke about it was like it was a handicap or something.

Not a facking chance Ernedya runs in the Group 2, imo.

My first thought after the Lockinge was the really good run of Euro Charline bodes well for the chances of both Ervedya and Amazing Maria.

On that line of thinking I have just added multiple Group 1 winning mare Esoterique, so have three of the fairer sex to take on the colts.

Ervedya will bid for a Royal Ascot double after connections of the high-class filly confirmed she will run in the Queen Anne Stakes.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10293719/ervedya-set-for-queen-annne-stakes-at-royal-ascot

The Jean-Claude-Rouget-trained four-year-old defeated Found by a neck in the Coronation Stakes last summer but will, significantly, take on the colts in the Group One over a mile - instead of running against the fillies and mares in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes.

Ervedya must still face the might of star American mare Tepin in the Queen Anne, but Georges Rimaud, racing manager for her owner the Aga Khan, said: "She deserves to run in a Group One.

"The Duke of Cambridge is a Group Two and she would have extra weight to carry, so what would be the point?"

Ervedya is a laudably consistent horse, having won three races at the top level, but she found Vadamos too good on her seasonal debut in the Prix du Muguet at Saint-Cloud.

Rimaud added: "We were happy with her at Saint-Cloud and I think she will improve a lot from it."

Trainer tripe alert concerning poor Tepin. You should read the link below about his views on Lasix.

The Breeders' Cup Mile winner is currently on course to run in the opening race of the meeting, the Queen Anne Stakes. Trainer Mark Casse is planning to breeze his charge without Lasix and the nasal strip she usually wears for her races to see how she fares in the absence of those aids as they are not permitted in the UK.

"We'll work her either tomorrow or Saturday," Casse told Betfred TV. "We have a few things we want to do. We'll breeze her without Lasix and the other thing she won't be allowed to do is wear a nasal strip, so she'll breeze without one and see how she handles that. Julien Leparoux will be on her and his feedback will be important. We just want to see a good, solid breeze and how she scopes afterwards, how she handles it all without two key ingredients to what has made her successful in the US. I'll be as confident as one can be going into the unknown. She's going to have variables thrown at her that she's never had before, so as a trainer I'll be nervous as there'll be things happening that have never happened before. One of the reasons we decided on Ascot was the straight mile - going the opposite direction with different turns I'd have been a little worried. Julien has done a magnificent job with her so booking a European jockey was never in question. We were looking forward, not being cocky, but we wanted to run against the best so no Solow obviously helps our chances, but one of the purposes of coming was we'd have liked to have run against him. She's pure class, I don't see the travel being an issue. She thrives with training and racing and I think her form is as good as ever. She's just matured, so it gives Julien the ability to position her wherever he wants in a race, she couldn't' do that early in her career. I think she likes a little give in the ground, but she's never won on anything soggy so that would be an unknown. Winning at Ascot would be a dream, an out of body experience. I've never even imagined it, to win at an event like Royal Ascot, this is all I've ever done, I've trained horses for 37 years."

Be my biggest place-lay of meeting for me.

Ervedya nicely on course for the race, sweet.

And Time Test confirmed for the POW this evening by Roger Charlton.

Great news on Ervedya.

Limato has also been confirmed on target for this and I have added 2 points on him at 12/1.
Might not quite get home but he went through the Lockinge as the best horse until the last 200 yards and Henry Candy has only had one turf winner so far so if the stable form picks up he could improve markedly.

As in 2015 my entire Royal Ascot may hinge on the very first race - and it went disastrously last year.

Sounds like Tepin won't be coming over now, they don't like the fact she cannot run with her nasal strip.

I'm having a saver on Limato too whilst he's still 12/1.

Ervedya is closing into favouritism, I wonder if this might have something to do with it? I think she will be down to 4/1 come early next week!

Connections of Tepin are giving careful thought to the idea of sending their star mare to Royal Ascot after she worked without her usual in-running aids on Saturday morning.The five-year-old usually runs on Lasix and with a nasal strip in America, where she has racked up a string of big-races successes including last year's Breeders' Cup Mile.
However, with both of those products banned in Britain, trainer Mark Casse was eager to see how Tepin fared in their absence when breezing over five furlongs at Churchill Downs.While regular rider Julien Leparoux and assistant trainer Norman Casse were pleased with her efforts, Leparoux thought Tepin made "maybe a little bit more" breathing noise than normal during the work.

Mark Casse, who was not on hand for the gallop, said: "I talked to Norman and Julien and they were happy with how she breezed. My concern is - a lot of people don't know it - but she has had some breathing issues in the past.

"In fact, if you go back and look at Del Mar (eighth in the 2014 Del Mar Oaks) when she ran her one bad race, she nearly collapsed after the race. So, as great as she is, she does have some issues.

"We don't run all our horses in the nasal strip, but she's one that it's really important for her to wear it. It's a concern. We just found out recently that she's not going to be allowed to use the nasal strip (at Ascot), so we're going to discuss it all.

"I think by tomorrow we need to make a final decision. It's a big concern," he told www.bloodhorse.com.

Sintonian you beat me by a few minutes, perhaps too much info my way!

Ascot's Nick Smith said: "They have mentioned the nasal strip before. It's not something new. They need to decide how important it is to the horse but they are fully aware you can't use one in this country.

"They confirmed at the second payment stage on Tuesday. From that you would logically assume they want to travel. The fact they've entered her in the Sussex Stakes also makes you think the same."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd

“We are planning to take the filly to Royal Ascot and run in the [G1] Queen Anne [S. June 14],” Masterson confirmed Saturday night. “Right now, all systems are go and everybody is on board. She obviously has some things to overcome that are different than the way she is running here, but we would like to go try it and see how she does.”

Amazing Maria-

"She was very good at Ascot last year in the Duke of Cambridge and I think she'll run in the Queen Anne this year," O'Meara told At The Races "The ground was a bit dead (at Newmarket) - we actually deliberated whether to run her or not - and a mile and one (furlong) was plenty far enough on her seasonal debut. We were keen to get a run in before the Lockinge, then the Lockinge went soft and we swerved it. We stuck to her own sex last year with her, so going against the boys is a bit of an unknown. But she was very good in Ascot, in the Falmouth and in France last year, so rather than take on the fillies with the penalty, we'll have a crack at the Queen Anne."

Post below was a quote fromTepin's owner who probably had already bought his top hat before Ascot informed him she cannot run with nasal the strip.

Tepin NAP place lay - from what I've had to learn about breathing problems it seems she has something amiss,

Those Nasal Strips are not for good luck! , She raced one time without it and her Palate FLipped and she nearly died (race where she came last at Del Mar) - physiologically that's exactly what you'd expect the strip to do - strengthen the underlying soft tissue for Palatal Stability.

Then take off the Lasix.


I suppose the contradictory comments between the trainer (v reluctant) and owner (give it a go) have been reported,

Will be looking to take her on, though it looks a tight race

Also a straight mile is totally alien to these foreign raiders - see Able Friend last year.

I’ve had a rethink about the race before the Confirmation Of Entry Stage- 12pm, 8th June-  and have jumped ship from Ervedya completely and greened-up for twice what I put on and split the booty on my two mares Amazing Maria and Esoterique. This top-class pair is way overpriced to me.

The thing that has been nagging me is Goldikova was a mare when she won the Queen Anne Stakes and became the first filly or mare to win since it was upgraded in the 1970's.

That is a key stat against Ervedya, as that means no filly has won in the time-period. I have no clue as to how many of each mares/fillies have run in the race since the 70's but it is on its face a key stat. Perhaps kincsem could kindly help out on mares/fillies running's, if he has some time away from his breeding cataloguing.

Definition of a filly and mare?

Filly 2-4yo, Mare 5yo + ?

Sintonian-

Definition of a filly and mare = Filly 2-4yo, Mare 5yo +

I think you can be a yearling filly as well?

OK, just being clear.

Essentially it's an age and sex related stat but I suspect not many 4yo fillies have tried? And some would have probably gone close..

Top price 6/1 now.

I have pulled the plug on Amazing Maria because of the unlikelihood of fast ground. all in on Esoterique. Ervedya acts on any, 14/1 was massive.

When Amazing Maria beat Ervedya, giving her 7lb's last season, it was only good ground at Deauville madhu. I think good will be just fine for her, and reckon that's the most likely going at this stage.

i think belardo is a good thing myself and also think  endless drama entered here and also  in the prince of wales should step upto 10f i think hes crying out for it he would win that imo but wont beat belardo in the queen anne

Csn't Catch Me-

You are right but I would much prefer Amazing Maria on fast ground and the weather is not looking good.

16s
OP
  GL

been looking forward to seeing endless drama again for a while and have bet him ew here, personally from a handicapping point of view this is not easy and won't be easy to give the weight to the fillies and if tepin was running on lasix she would be a solid favorite in my book, shame for her...

ervedya of which sint (thief) has got a nice price on is solid, she was just given a nice introduction back off the lay off and should come forward, last years fillies were a decent bunch, anyway she is to short here for me now and for me the market is all wrong as i personally would have endless drama shorter and also esoterique a whole lot shorter but really this is a very open race but i'm taking those 2 to put it up to the top 2 but endless drama is the one i like most

very tricky and all the pace seems middle to low so hope drama doesn't get to far out the heat, anyway the way lynam spoke after newbury i'm hoping he comes on plenty and his back form reads quite well, the ground should be fine for him

kodi bear who has his ground ran a strange race at newbury and i can only presume he is better than that, his headstrong way of running is still a worry though and it will be interesting to see him back on a turning track

Ervedya a top price 4/1 now, the going must have got pretty soft. Such a shame for the meeting

Anyway, my bets as poted on here re Ervedya ew 16/1, and a win bet on Tepin at 8/1. Limato is a non-runner now so I will stick a saver on Endless Drama at 7/1.

Agree with Harry, Endless Drama still has the scope to improve this season. Just not sure about the trainer myself so we'll see.

Harry

I agree with you about Tepit. She is being wholly discriminated against and disadvantaged by being denied the dope- lasix - she seems to thrive so well on.

Gpz, i tend to agree with you about Belardo but he is now sadly not much of a price.
The 2 french fillies have chances as they are also okay on the likely boggy going.

Great shout Sintonian whatever the outcome.
Hope she runs her race with no hard luck stories.

You've a chance Sint but the american oss I've backed will hose up disprortionate amounts of dosh queuing up to back at the mo. They know.

I've laid off a point of my Erveyda bet (3pt win, 1pt place @ 14/1) @ 4/1 and placed that stake on Belardo @ 9/2 as cover - just worried about the straight track for Ervedya. 

Also tempted to save on Esoterique - she was awesome on very soft ground in the Jaques Le Marois last year.

Should add I'm already a point down on Limato, so this could be a very expensive first race - just like last year.

112 Esoterique: clearly rushed prep sounds alarm bell, and Fabre's comments lack encouragement.
110 Toormore: can't be fancied after a string of failures at this level
110 Belardo: hard to envisage improvement after three seasonals but will he have to?
110 Ervedya: not sure she'll thrive on straight track in attritional race
110 Amazing Maria: not sure she can't handle soft but would have liked to have seen more this season
110 Kodi Bear: gone off him after two flops in group 1 races; can't settle, which is fatal against this class of rival.
108 Endless Drama: hard to know what to expect but reasonable to expect several pounds improvement after reappearance
??? Tepin: profound difference between straight track and bends. Opposed.

Endless Drama's price allows me to project 3/4 pounds improvement; I liked the way he kept going at Newbury and he's worth a unit in a very tricky race lacking a horse with the class of a typical winner. Belardo might well win by default if they go a very strong pace.

Oh dear.

Oh dear, oh dear.

well done winners, she is good and you got the right price

shame with endless drama, he was always going to be a bounce horse and i don't think he backed up, am slightly disappointed in colin keane who took him into the red unnecessarily in my book at newbury... off the back of the lay off it just wasn't necessary and he didn't back up, anyway we make these decisions and i felt the trainer had trained him for this and to come forward after injury but keane got stuck into him for a place and he hasn't come forward, he would of been third without being given the full office in my book, it was a poor bet, as i knew this before i placed the bet, so only myself to blame 

got to have a whinge occasionally

5th for Ervedya. Perhaps she is better on a turning track?

Tepin as saver covered losses but i'd never have had an outright bet on her. wd folks.

Does anyone know where Ervedya's next run may be? Or even if she will run...could have been retired?

I'mguessing that she will still be in training and target something like the foret.