KENTUCKY DERBY

His dosage index is over 7, making it pretty impossible for him to win a derby.  His last race was pretty underwhelming too.

what beats him?

Its a wide open race, ripe for an upset; if it were run 10 times, there'd likely be a different winner each time. Beyer speed figures are low for nearly all of them. If I had to choose, I'd pick Mor Spirit. Ran on wet track last time, but has potential to win; also, he's not one of the piles of late runners in the race.

if its a wet track exaggerator could well win

Will Betfair have a market on this - I need to lay off a bet.

To be fair to Nyquist he's passed every test you'd expect of a KD fav. Shortened up in most places but 5/1 still available and I couldn't fault anyone for taking that.

He will have to prove his stamina for the 10f though as there are severe stamina limitations on both sides of the family.

His Grand Sire Indian Charlie didn't stay when he ran in the Kentucky Derby and I was always keen to take on his son Uncle Mo but he unfortunately missed the race and never did go on to prove himself over 10f (well beaten in the classic). Dam a 6 furlong sprinter. So he could be running on vapours in the final furlong but considering how professional he is and how easy he is to place and keep his position in a race if they go as slow as they did last year then he might just get away with his lack of stamina.

The horse I'm quite keen on is Broadys Cause who won his maiden at the Churchill and ran a very good third to Nyquist in the BC Juvenile..

More than happy to throw out his run in the Tampa Bay Derby because he never handled the surface and plenty of other classy horses have found that surface just as difficult before rebounded on back on dirt. Looked much more like the real deal last time when grinding out the Bluegrass where he looked every inch a son of Giant's Causeway...extremely tough and honest.

You look at his pedigree and his style of racing and I reckon he's going to relish this 10furlong trip big time. Third run after a break with improving Beyers and in more than capable hands with Dale Romans....14/1 will do nicely for me.

Which channel will be showing the race ?

The Kentucky Derby is a fine occasion, and one tough race. At this moment in time i'm thinking Mohaymen , but i'll see how things go.

I'd be updating my thought and look to have a small interest in mo tom at 20/1.  At first i thought the odds were to not get boxed in or have a hard luck story, but apparently it's not the case.

I would say Mohaymen.  Wide open though.  The fav is a worthy fav and priced correctly at 4-1.

Apr 28, 2016 -- 7:16AM, unclepuncle wrote:

Will Betfair have a market on this - I need to lay off a bet.

I'm wondering the same. Have they done so in the past? (I'm new to horse racing).
What's the best way to go about it if we want BF to add markets for this event?

I sent them an email, would encourage others to do so as well (or contact them on twitter) if you want to see markets for this event here.

for me Exaggerator looks an each way steal. I dont think betfair have a license for churchill downs

bf won't cover it....try the other place.

May 7, 2016 -- 1:29PM, jockeyhunter wrote:

for me Exaggerator looks an each way steal. I dont think betfair have a license for churchill downs

yeah, you're right. on the sportsbook but not the exchange.

The purple site allows backing and laying - Betfair should be ashamed of themselves.

Really fancy Destin myself. Thought he showed a nice cruising speed last time and he was strong at the line- cold take some passing if he gets out from gate 9. Could be all sorts of traffic problems for the hold up horses and I fancy Destin to outstay the favourite, Nyquist.

looking forward to the derby although the race really lacks a real top notcher...we have a decent favorite in nyquist who has done nothing wrong and is solid favorite who is uncomplicated in regards he can sit close and if we get a no pace race he can just sit just off the easy fractions and his stamina probably won't be tested to the maximum but this track usually takes some getting and he is an uncle mo whose progeny so far show a lot of speed something he has showed on all his starts so i just couldn't take the short price after he got it very easy off of slow fractions last time

looking at the race it doesn't really contain any real great pace and a huge amount of deep closers, will they get the pace in which to close down? i'm not sure so am keen to have something that will race at least close to the pace

some really average horses here similar to our guineas so difficult to handicap but i've taken the chance on a pletcher runner(risky i know with his record) i feel we are getting the right price about him and i actually feel he ran in the best trial the trouble with him is he loves tampa and he is coming here off the lay off but i think he is the best horse, anyway destin for me looks sure to race handy from an ok draw and i feel if he has shipped ok he can outrun his price at 16/1 but that is the chance you take and the lay off isn't ideal but we are getting the right price, can he transform his form to churchill we won't know till the day i also like his stable mate outwork from that trail who probably got stuck on the dead rail so deserves extra credit

anyway i'm against mohaymen.... i respect exaggerator who might just need slop and mo tom and gun runner may run well

Exaggerator was the real winner today...checked twice and ran widest yet finished like a train and length behind.  Exaggerator is the real deal ...especially over 1m 4f

I think exaggerator jockey and connections will be kicking themselves. Should have won. And won me lots

Unlucky with Exaggerator guys.

The other horse I took out of the race was Mo Tom who got badly squeezed up on the home turn when starting to charge - wouldn't have won but might have been 3rd/4th and should be a massive price when he runs next time.

The answer to why there was no market is apparently there is a dispute between Betfair and Churchill Downs (no idea over what) and evidently if Betfair have a market at CD then thar racecourse can sue them. I found this out by trying to bet in a PP shop and they said they weren't allowed to take bets from that particular race track as they are now associated with with Betfair.

* that not thar

PREAKNESS STAKES : 11/8 NYQUIST.  5-1 EXAGGERATOR.   50-50 between the two over a shorter distance so Exaggerstor is the value

very well done brain dead a good race

a cracking performance by the winner and he won easy after being on the front end most of the race which he should get extra credit for as they went a decent pace, i don't get the angle that exaggerator was unlucky apart from being slightly checked round the home turn, he won't get a pace to run at like that very often and he was ridden to close so although he may have finished closer he wouldn't of beaten the winner imo after sitting out the heat of the battle most of the race, the winner won easy

No way did Nyquist win easy, but you should know that after the race the horse looked exhausted and the commentators picked up on that.  It was however eased down slightly in the final half furlong with the jockey sensing fatigue.  1m 4f no way.

NYQUIST IS IMO a great horse.........i am sick and tired of his knockers.........he would win any dirt race in america from 6 furlongs to 10 furlongs.......he is a cert for the preakness..........how on earth can anyone think exagger can beat him?
its 3-0 in favour of NY........he should not however run in the belmont.......he has sprinter speed and would get outstayed in the belmont.
one thing about the horse is his trainer's dodgy record with drugs. his owner too is bit of a strange guy.........philosopher turned lender which resembles loan sharking.

wasn't knocking it. great horse but very beatable.