QE11 SUNDAY 24TH APRIL SHA TIN

Lovely Day was going to be a confident bet for me as well BDJ but I think the forecast weather might scupper his chances. There is a lot of rain around Hong Kong during the week and over the weekend and Lovely Day will not want that at all... he loves a fast hard track. It will be a real shame if the rain does come because he ran a good prep (given an easy time) at Hanshin behind two very good race fit rivals and the Japan Cup winner Shonan Pandora (the one to take out of that race IMO).

With a lot of rain forecast I've looked at an alternative and backed the other Japanese contender Satono Crown at 10-1 EW. He is not your typical Japanese bred racehorse being by Marju out of a Rossini mare but I think he will appreciate any ease in the ground. His prep race at Kyoto was on yielding ground and he won that by an easy 3 lengths which visually looked like his most impressive performance so far. His mom Jioconda also won on soft/heavy and yielding ground in Ireland which might be another positive if the heavy rain arrives. SC wasn't far behind his stable mate Duramente in the Japanese Derby and his trainer knows how to get one ready for an international raid winning the Hong Kong Mile last year with Maurice.

highland reel is a strange runner for me............now i know he won at this course in december but he went to dubai 4 weeks ago, returned to ireland and is now flying back to hong kong this week. if he did not run in dubai i would rate his chances. i will look into this other **** horse u r talking about.

Ground is good chaps......there has been a lot of rain around but it drains very very well

http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2016-apqe/news.aspx?in_file=2016-apqe_news_20160...

DOR for me as he'll go on any ground - not original but he seems to be finding some form now and back to his old self after his operation and Tommy Berry also makes a difference to him.

Can't back Blazing Speed as he's not been himself this season bar one run (he didn't get the best ride last run thought - G Mosse)

I'm not convinced by the 4yo in HK this season though Werther did win the derby well but he's got something to find on the clock.

Think it's too short for Highland Reel, Lovely Day may not get the ground if the rain that is forecast comes. Helene Happy Star doesn't have Moreira now but if it does get very wet he could give a very good showing.

Military Attack may just find DOR too good once again.

Howdy HK, hope you're doing well. DOR has drifted to 7-1 now with a couple of bookies, he's becoming a tempting price and you know what you are going to get with DOR, especially with TB on board. All the fancied runners got good barrier draws, Satono Crown in 8 is OK but he could do with some of that predicted heavy rain arriving Sunday... I think!

The Chairman’s Sprint Prize looks a cracker as well the following week, Chautauqua will be a tough nut to crack. What do you think of Lucky Bubbles HK?

Lovely Day should beat this lot - ground will only turn softish if the forecast thunderstorms actually hit during racing

I think Lucky Bubbles is the real deal - last run I got my wish with Packing Pins as they put him over 1200m in the same race as LB - admittedly first run for 3 months and after an operation but LB destroyed them in a very good time. Pins is going in the Mile race on the same day next week.

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/info/meeting/Results/english/Local/20160403/ST/03

The interesting move is Moreira is going to ride The Wizardofoz and not Peniaphobia

Mr D look at Chepstow tonight - will give you an update later.

I'll play safe with DOR @ 7/1 and for old times sake a little e/w on Military Attack @ 33/1.

GL

Loads of rain today

Mr D - ew chance, he's been ready for a long time though but couldn't run due to the ground so it's been tricky keeping him fresh but if he progresses he should be competitive. Think he'll be much better over fences though.

Had an EW bet on your fella at Chepstow HK.

HKJC tweeted they had 7.5mm of rain, the video footage on Twitter of the downpour looked torrential!

Lucky Bubbles is one I've been looking at the past couple of months, that last run was impressive. Needs to step up again but I wouldn't put it past him. I was surprised the Magic Man jumped ship as well HK... more food for thought!

Military Attack is a big price at 33-1 Uncle and he won't mind the conditions either if more rain arrives. My concern with MA is Zac Purton jumped ship to ride Satono Crown but that might be mistake by him and me!!

Sorry Mrs D - not too sure what went wrong.

Less of the Mrs, I haven't had the op yet!

No problem HK, he pulled too hard but something looked amiss the second half of the race!

He had a bout of Colic after the race so that explains it. He's better now so that's a relief.....always next time

Sha Tin going has been changed to Good to Yielding after a couple of heavy showers, more rain on the way by the look of the weather radar!

Only 24 races in the last 5 years run on yielding at Sha Tin which might explain why so many horses ran well below form. Credit to old stagers Military Attack and Blazing Speed but Werther was a revelation - be interesting to see if he has improved greatly or whether he simply relished the ground. Ironically the time this year on yielding ground was faster than last years crawl won by Blazing Speed.

Not surprised with Werther winning, New Zealand bred horses normally go well in Soft ground. Superb performance from him and the old warrior Military Attack. I didn't think Lovely Day would enjoy the conditions but he still ran better than Satono Crown who was very disappointing!!!

Great shout with your EW bet Uncle.

Thanks MrDinos - can't believe the SP was 70/1.

Well, some egg on my face there, you could see DOR wasn't going to win from about 3f out, he took a lot longer to get stoked up yesterday, maybe the ground was against him. Great run from the winner but he'll not see ground like that very often in HK. Looking forward to the Cup now in December, there is talk of Covert Love coming over and I hear she has improved and while she's no Snow Fairy yet she only needs to improve a little bit - plus one of my very good mates here owns a fair chunk of her.

Sunday looks interesting with 2 more G1s on the card, unfortunately i won't be watching as I will be away for the long weekend with the family.