Horse Antepost
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15 Apr 16
07:16
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Date Joined:
16 Jun 11
Looks a good opportunity for Alvarado to win a national, as we know he stays all day, the soft ground will help in that the race will be more of a stamina test. There is a suspicion that his best form is on good ground but he has won twice on soft and im more inclined to think the handbrake has been off in the spring rather than any ground dependency. Has a lovely low weight and on a lower mark than both grand national placed efforts.
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The first 3 I crossed off were Pineau Di Re , Shotgun Paddy and Alvarado.
Very poor run first time , past it's best , and this test is nothing akin to Aintree. |
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I think it's premature to be saying he is past his best as the horse only gets trained for one big race a year and this was probably the plan once they realised his mark was too low for national so it wouldn't make sense to show any form lto. Yes it's a different test to aintree but I would argue it's a less classy race which should enable him to lay up closer to the pace. Another horse who looks to have excellent form is fine rightly, beat the national winner, placed in a grade 1 finishing in front of the national 4th, excellent course form and ground will suit. I know he is at the wrong end of weights but I think there is reason to believe 151 could still be a reasonable mark.
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I really like Milansbar at 25s imo got a very average ride at Uttoxeter in the Midlands National
Going to do Folsom Blue too. Early season I thought this horse might make a Grand National horse but seemed to lose confidence with jumping after good debut, a good placed effort in Irish National last time-stable did have the National winner so maybe this has been the plan all along. adding Milborough for the forecasts and tricast |
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need to carry 10 9 or ower and be aged 8 or over. trained by ntd is a positive too.
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is that 10-9 or lower or
10-9 or over |
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 , sorry ,lower |
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Good because I fancy Tour Des Champs e/w
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same here as I thought NTD,s cogry was a good bet but was first reserve so NTD must think a lot of Tour Des Champs will do for me as well
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same here
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Agree with OP - good mark, extended distance and trained to be fit at this time.
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Heathfield for me.
Also agree with Milansbar at a very tasty e/w price. Thought exactly the same about the ride in the Midlands National. |
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With Fine Rightly missing the race I am left with Highland Lodge. Any value in that one went a long time ago so what about a speculative punt on Masters Hill. If you believe his form with Just A Par and Fingal Bay then he looks e/w material at big prices.
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Measureofmydreams for me.
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Midnight Prayer
Sun Cloud. GL ALL |
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Very competitive renewal. I did not find it easy narrowing down the field, nevertheless I have backed Alvarado and Royal Knight, will also have a bet on Straidnahanna, who is overpriced at 40's.
GL All. |
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my 3 against the field are see you at midnight, Ballyculla and Berea Boru good luck all
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Tour Des Champs
Golden Chieftan Milborough GL ALL |
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Unlucky OP, alas Paul Maloney does his usual trick of arriving when the race is over.
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^ Is it the jockey though? We have seen this so many times with Alvarado, when the race starts to hot up the horse seems to take an age to build up a head of steam but motors on when he does. I'm not sure it's the jock.
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Was different today though , was always well placed , then lost his position , before finishing like a train.
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My only gripe with the jockey is that I think he is too safe in these races, taking the wide route the whole time to ensure the horse gets around but jepodising the horses chances of actually winning. Having said that in regards to the horse I think he just needed it to be slightly more of a stamina test, I think the grand national is his ideal distance he just isn't classy enough to win it, another half a furlong yesterday and he would have win, just didn't have the pace at the crucial moment.
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Quite a number of fancied horses, may as well have stayed in their boxes.
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