US Army Ranger

He should stay 10 furlongs no problem but I think he is unlikely to stay the 12 furlongs at Epsom, and if you don't truly stay you don't win the Derby.

Foundation simply doesnt look good enough, not enough class he is well over-rated, lacks scope think what we have seen is as good as he is. Gosden will have another candidate in the wings for the Derby he is keeping us waiting.

I have a couple for profit in the race and they are Midterm and US Army Ranger.

I thought it was a tremendous performance today by Midterm and he should be strong Derby favourite after that. Everything you could want from a seasonal debut and more. Looks real class to me and will come on from that a ton just as US Army Ranger will. Midterm's race had a real quality feel to it the way he came going much easier than the rest, which will help keep his balance at Epsom as the jockey wont have to get serious until late, then the front two quickened well away off a decent pace testing Midterm's resolve, turn of foot and staying power under pressure. He was still going away at the line 6s is great value as think after his next trial he could be under 2s.

To answer your question impossible123 i think Midterm will win the Derby.

OMR and JFK didnt train on so dont think they can be compared with US Army Ranger who has shown a great turn of foot to win this season. The opposition is questionable in his race which is another reason why i prefer Midterm.

UAE Prince is the most interesting horse to see now.

I thought the Ballysax was a better trial. Looked two very good horses in first and second to me.

Apr 23, 2016 -- 9:05AM, sintonian wrote:

I thought the Ballysax was a better trial. Looked two very good horses in first and second to me.

Idaho v eye catching, great line of breeding, always thought a lot of. Looked like he could come on a ton for that race, big powerful horse, lots of Danehill about him, could be a big player this season. Not crazy about the Weld horse, thought the ground helped him reel the other in. Good Spot though

Aiden very bullish about this one at Chester yesterday. I`m still to be convinced and have had a little each way on Dazzler`s mount.

Is Hit It A Bomb ok? There seems to be no news about him at all. He's not injured I hope.

Still not convinced. Improved from debut but still needs to improve markedly again.

Moore might not have a difficult decision to make regards his Derby mount if Midterm excels next week.

But he's claimed by coolmore isn't he? So doesn't get the choice.

Think the winner had a bit more in hand than it looked.

lewisham ranger,

Probably.

I do not think the winner, despite going ominously better, can quicken off any pace.

He will be much much better off a stronger pace he has a very high cruising speed (as does Midterm) a great engine.

Tight track like Chester he handled it really well on only his second run ever against his very experienced stablemate. There will be a lot doing the washing before US Army Ranger is even asked at Epsom. Great run with the pair going well clear.

Moore mentioned narrowly beating subsequent King George winner Nathaniel on Treasure Island in this race and we know one turned out a lot better than the other. Chester is tight constantly on the turn so will suit terriers more than horses who need to be let down late.

Also remember horse having his first ever run winning narrowly also from Nathaniel ... Frankel. Really not sure how the reaction came about to todays performance...the desire for many (what price does Nick Luck have for her ha ha) for Minding to run might have a lot to do with it.

whatever the politics ryan will ride the one he thinks will win, im sure of that !

it's not about politics, he has to ride the coolmore horse if they insist. they are his retainer.

if it's clear that midterm is far better than anything they have (say if he comes out and wins the dante by half the track) then you could conceivably imagine a scenario where they say go on then ryan, you can ride him, but that would be entirely their discretion.

in any case I don't think US army ranger is winning the derby. on yesterday's evidence hee doesn't look anything like good enough. O'Brien also looked quite irritable in the interview with Nick Luck afterwards- much more than I'd seen him before. I got the impression that he was expecting a lot more from the horse and was quite obviously disappointed.

I'm guessing this is a St Leger horse, or a cup horse.
It could win the Derby if the ground is soft or worse.

In the interview imo he was getting irritated with Luck's negativity with the questions after his horses had just slaughtered the field, including Midterms 3rd and 5th in the Sandown trial by much further. I saw his point of view and was actually wondering during the interview whether Luck has backed Minding for the Derby.

Without his stablemate in the race, who everyone is totally underestimating certainly in the context of his suitability for Chester (I wouldnt back this runner up for Epsom), US Army Ranger would still be favourite for the Derby. A horse with less ability than the runner up stuck to Midterm for longer at Sandown. There is an agenda of Minding running from the press and this will pop up every time an O'Brien horse has run in a trial.

US Army Ranger is definitely about the right value at 5s for the Derby after that showing a high cruising speed and excellent balance around Chester and it is now Midterm who is too short on current achievements.

Agree with pretty much everything Eric has said - there I said it.

The comparison made between UAR and Midterm solely on the distance the former beat High Ground is misleading for several reasons eg the difference in distance between the two races, High Ground did not settle hence weakened over 1f out and could possibly be more effective over 10f instead of 12f, and the going. But it is evidently clear Midterm can quicken off softish ground, would appreciate further than 10f.

UAR and Midterm both have only two races each and travel well but the latter can quicken and has a better constitution I believe. Hence, should it come down to between the two in The Derby Midterm for me, any time.

lewisham, my understanding was ryan is retained by coolemore when not required by micheal stoute, it will be ryans choice anyway he has such clout and fair enough when your as good as he is.

aidan will want donnacha on the ranger

Donnacha the new Joseph!

Fashion Fever Pat Smullen is riding Midterm next week in the Dante (if free) which would suggest than Ryan has to ride for Coolmore first

The two horses beaten by Midterm pulled much too hard to be reliable guides to the form. Both USAR and Midterm look too short to me (Tirmizi the value in my opinion), though the former is much the likelier winner.

Holding 10s US Army Ranger and 8s Midterm and been very pleased with what I have seen so far. Think the only other fly in the ointment is Foundation who could run very well in the Dante.

Forget Minding. Won't run. Simple as that.

TheCollector,

You could be right about Minding not running in The Derby - too much to lose for Coolmore - even the Coolmore "betting" associate has not priced her up at all.

Regards Foundation, he's the forgotten horse post the Craven run, and he could still be backed at 37/1 here - nearly 3x that of on-street bookies.

Ｆｏｒｇｅｔ　Ｍｉｎｄｉｎｇ，　Ｔｈｅ　Ｇｕｒｋｈ�...

TheCollector

Regards Minding participation in The Derby: you could make a quick 40% within a month through "arbitrage" given the huge discrepancy between the prices here and on-street bookies.

ａｎｄ　Ｍａｓｓａｔ　ａｓ　ａｌｌ　ｗｉｌｌ　ｎｏ�...

Ｆｏｒｇｅｔ　Ｍｉｎｄｉｎｇ，　
Ｔｈｅ　Ｇｕｒｋｈａ
ａｎｄ　ａｎｄ　Ｍａｓｓａｔ
ａｓ　ａｌｌ　ｗｉｌｌ　ｂｅ
．．．．　Ｎ／Ｒｓ

ｂａｃｋｅｄ　ＰＤ　ａｎｄ．．
．．Ｍａｓｓａａｔ．．ａｔ　２０ｓ

ＵＡＲ　ｗｉｌｌ　ｂｅ　ａ　ｆｏｒｃｅ　
ｗｉｔｈ　ｂｌｉｎｋｅｒｓ　ｏｎ　ＩＭＯ．
Ｂｕｔ　５－１　ｉｓ　ｔｏｏ　ｓｈｏｒｔ

What is with the funny writing greed

if they have the blinkers on the ranger even more reason to avoid the horse in my view, I tend to have an inbuilt bias against anything wearing headgear, although it didn't stop ruler of the world who wore cheekpieces when he won his derby.

As to whether or not Ryan Moore rides Midterm in the derby, as I said before my understanding was that Coolmore have first claim on his services, I could be wrong about that though.

I seem to recall a few years ago when Authorized was favourite for the derby there was a general sense of relief when Godolphin decided not to run anything in the race, as at the time Dettori was their retained rider, I think they tapped into public sentiment as Frankie had never won the race before and it was clear to everyone and his dog that Authorized was going to win it.

Incredibly that was the year that O'Brien had eight (!) runners in the derby.

ｎｏ　ｉｄｅａ．
ｗｔｆ　ｈａｐｐｅｎｅｄ　ｔｏ　ｍｅ？

ＡＯＢ　ｄｉｄ　ｓａｙ　ＵＡＲ　ｍｉｇｈｔ
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ｗｏｕｌｄｎ；ｔ　ｂａｃｋ　ａｎｙ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｅ　ｆａｖｓ
ａｔ　ｔｈｏｓｅ　ｐｒｉｃｅｓ．

Moore is riding for the Queen instead of Coolmore - thinking about the Knighthood perhaps?

After the Derrinstown US Army Ranger still looks their no 1 hope with a stronger pace at Epsom ideal.

You correct in suggesting the Chester Vase was run at snails pace for 80& of the race, and US Army Ranger may well be the real deal but IMO he is too too inexperienced to win at Epsom.  My gut feeling is that UAR could be scratched from the Derby.

They're all inexperienced at Epsom. Its just who has the most natural ability on the day. He has the cruising speed and the balance and has arguably beaten the most experienced rival so far in his stablemate with them pulling well clear.

Good thing is that race wont have taken much out of US Army Ranger and will have primed him. A stronger pace and less running round bends will see his cruising speed burn them off to better effect at Epsom.

I think UAR will go to The Derby solely because of the potential value it could bring to his connections but is an unlikely winner. Despite his high cruising speed he just cannot quicken and sustain it at 12f. Maybe a longer trip like The Leger might see him to best effect.

As such, which is O'Brien's current number one Derby horse if it is not UAR? Port Douglas, perhaps.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10274326/joseph-obrien-r...

IF THERE were a Golden Horn or an Australia around I could have half understood the early call the connections of Galileo Gold took in avoiding the Derby. However, given the paucity of high-class colts this year, I can't help but think they have made a hugely premature decision.

I know I'm biased, having backed him for the Derby after the Guineas, but before the Newmarket race all the talk from his trainer was that he was a ten-furlong horse and that he would be worried about him over a mile. To quote "on pedigree, there's a chance he's a Derby horse and I think he would have stayed ten furlongs last year".

Of course he showed himself to be a fast horse in the Guineas, but how good was that race? Surely if you have a chance of winning the Derby - the biggest Flat race in the world - you should always have a shot at it.

I can't believe Al Shaqab Racing and Harry Herbert are comfortable with the decision of keeping him at a mile and, while I fully understand the chances of Galileo Gold being as good at a mile and half as he is at a mile are slim, that most certainly doesn't rule him out of winning the Derby.

Ranger is no danger

Of course if there were a potential superstar in the line-up who was a certain stayer you could argue Galileo Gold would be better targeted at Royal Ascot, but that is certainly not the case so far and I cannot believe there is anyone out there who can have any interest in backing US Army Ranger at around 5-1.

There was a lot of hullabaloo about the ride Seamie Heffernan gave the runner-up Port Douglas in the Chester Vase in the week and it was entirely justified. However, I think the point that was missed is that twice Port Douglas came off the rail with US Army Ranger going through and the winner never had to go around a single horse.

In short, US Army Ranger had the perfect trip throughout the Vase yet really could have lost to a horse who was giving him 4lb. Now I get he might improve, but so might everything else in the Derby field, and on what he showed at Chester I wouldn't be interested at backing him at 25-1, let alone 5-1.

The Dee Stakes and Lingfield Derby trial threw up nothing and Midterm has been shuffled into Derby favouritism on the back of winning, admittedly in good style, at Sandown. He could be the real deal and the Dante will be a crucial piece of evidence, but at this stage I would back Galileo Gold to beat any horse I've seen over the Derby trip and shutting the door so early was a staggeringly strange decision.

Strong stuff from Tom Segal.

I agree fwiw. You'd have to be a fcukinh klingon to back him.

lol klingon. classic.  read that sportinglife article too, seems odd that everyone in ballydoyle is bigging him up yet 'lost' last time out (albeit to a very good horse).  i'd be a backer at 20s too, defo not 5s

However, my guess on US Army Ranger is that they only really started training him seriously 6-7 weeks ago.  Everyhting before that he has probably done nothing so hence the JOB comments.

Tom is going to have to eat humble pie, ranger might not win but he sure as well will be not far off at all

This guy is probably crying because his insiders fed him wrong info about galileo gold

Anybody who writes ranger off clearly cant read horse racing, they ran a final 4 furlongs at chester in 48 seconds, for a mile and a half race off a slow pace, that is very good

Every other trail so far is producing blanket finishes apart from chester, everyone seems to forget the line of form through midterm too with ranger

Yes wide open derby so far, but writing any horse off at moment is stupid

Tom already had his say with Galileo Gold imo.

Still prefer Midterm but US Army Ranger can improve for a stronger pace and think he will run very well.

Antepost is a great leveller as unlike day of race where inside info can be a great advantage to Segal, antepost is about gut feeling well in advance of a race. This takes away his advantage as too much inside info can actually be a disadvantage antepost if you are used to relying on it. Your eyes, experience and gut feeling are all you need for antepost.

If one fancies UAR one must also keep Port Douglas on side as the latter was conceding 4lbs, 3x better price here plus a less "professional" ride from his pilot in The Chester Vase. If Midterm is turned over by Foundation - the forgotten horse - in The Dante which is not inconceivable the 'fav' in The Derby could start at 5/1 at best, I think.

How did you think the track made a difference to Port Douglas with regards his running style and also the pace he set with regards the finish?

I think a horse with a high cruising speed is disadvantaged by a slow early pace and also by a tight track. Instead of the pace winding up to the advantage of the cruising horse, the turns are going to slow the pace as there is more emphasis on keeping balanced and can ultimately lead to a sprint off the last turn. The advantage of the cruiser is removed on a tight track imo whereas normally on a more open track he might be getting others pushing to remove their kick.

UAR looked as if he could get pass Port Douglas (PD) in the straight whenever he wanted and be gone within a few strides but he didn't. Instead, Heffernan deliberately came off the rails and allowed UAR through; if UAR had not had that "help" which he will not in The Derby should the same two horses be in contention towards the end UAR would have had to come round PD and probably lost at least a length doing so. And on level weights with many more runners in The Derby I think PD would have the edge over UAR given their difference in running style.

I also believe the inability of UAR to quicken and pull away is a concern for his backers.

Do you not see my points that the early pace of the race and the track could have affected the finish? Incidentally they both went well clear so both showed a good turn of foot against the rest of the field.

I do - The Derby with many more runners will not help UAR - but I'm more concerned about UAR not able to quicken away once joining PD despite going much the better of the two.

Not being able to quicken? Off a slow pace he quickened past PD who had at least two lengths on him, they ran the last 4 furlongs in 48 seconds, that is quick for a mile and half race, what about the horses in behind who were left for dust

Whatever the reason for UAR not being more strong at the finish (some have mentioned the far rail is bad place to be at chester), but anyway whatever reason, it is not because he is unable to quicken

And as Eric has said, a slow pace is not what UAR wants anyway

The problem is people are not giving PD any credit, if there was no port douglas in that race people would be saying omg look at ranger, while it is my opinion ranger is still the better horse, people dismissing ranger are also dismissing port douglas

The chester vase in my opinion is the best trial to date

I suspose UAR's damsire is Dalakhani which is possibly more stamina than speed so UAR would be a lay for me although knowing my luck lately he'll probably go and win!

O'Brien: Don't dismiss Us Army Ranger

Aiden O'Brien has given his full backing to UAR....and insisting pundits are wrong to knock the son of Galileo. UAR would have been a near 8 length winner if he had not run Port Douglas in the race, and would be a very short price for The Derby."

I backed Port Douglas.  However after reading what AOB just said today in the Racingpost,  UAR is the no.1 choice.  And Coolmore would want this to win for maximum stud earnings. 5-1 is too short anyway...i;ll back in running during the race.

I guess without Port Douglas US ARMY ranger would be a 6-4 shot for the derby.  AOB is probably correct

Think he'd be around 2/1 the Derby if O'Brien hadnt wanted him to have a race at Chester against the 2nd fav his stablemate in only his second racecourse outing. He would have won cantering without Port Douglas in the race. Great he was as US Army Ranger learned much more for the Derby having a battle.

So have you backed him again since Chester if you believe that?

I;m not topping up on PD as I am not sure he will run TBH.

I think PD will head to the Epsom Derby especially after the "scare" he gave to UAR; O'Brien had 3 runners last year and I'd expect a similar number at least from him eg UAR, PD, Idaho and Shogun.

Doubt PD will run in the Derby

I beg to differ, assuming all is well; POD has improved since upped in trip; he has no other engagement prior except The Epsom Derby unlike The Gurkha who is France bound; he also has the best credential of all the O'Brien's contingent; he is next best - after UAR - in the betting market of the O'Brien's with BV, the business associate of the stable who did not price up Minding for the Epsom Derby with/out a run.

POD might be "friendless" now but could be massively supported prior to and on Derby Day similar to Goivanni Canelleto who was backed from 16/1 and finished at 6/1 on the day.

So AOBs no 1 US Army Ranger only just beats a tenderley ridden(seasonal debut) stablemate receiving 4lbs .Yet they will leave PD in the stable come Derby day.
IF US Army Ranger has a good chance in The Derby then so does PD>
If folks seriously think PD wont run in The Derby its time to take up another sport.

If folks seriously think PD wont run in The Derby its time to take up another sport.

Coolmore and breeding values mate.

Yep which bigger race are they saving him for?

Both are capable of winning the Derby.  As we saw with Bondi Beach rerouted to Ireland to win an easier race, AOB is not afraid of making these kind of decisions.  Nothing surprises me in racing.

This is THE DERBY and as you state its about stallion values.
A place in The Derby would enhance PDs reputation more than winning any other race they could save it for.
Irish Derby/Eclipse can be  be on the agenda after

i agree, don't trust aob though, esp on what he says 30-40% of the time

what i meant is the value of an unbeaten derby winner is probably worth double than if PD were to win.

PD is multiple group  winner in the making though.

I dont trust any of em .Greed .
What they say and what they do can be taken with a pinch of salt.
But if you put yourself in their shoes what would you do with PD and usually find if you go with your gut instinct that makes commonsense you wont be far wrong.
PD will be a vital part of The Ballydoyle team as he can travel up front and therefore miss what could be a messy race in behind in what is a very open Derby

Im sure Seamie will let Ryan past again on the line if he needs to

May 11, 2016 -- 10:10AM, geoff m wrote:

Im sure Seamie will let Ryan past again on the line if he needs to

it's not their decision to as before.

PD will line up in The Derby - there is only one Derby; what happened at Chester will not be replicated at Epsom, if so, connections of PD and UAR could be ostracised by the racing public and fraternity.

tongue in cheek impossible.
Coolmore wont mind PD beating US AR if they are 1st and 2nd.

as long as pd lines up i don't care.as long as i get my money's worth with a run  at 25-1 i don't care

I'd like to think the AOB/Coolmore boys will not exercise the same wilful disregard for the racing public and punters of those shown by the WPM/RW/RR clan; the Derby is so open this year and the Coolmore team will be represented by their best "bullets", I'm certain of that. And they also like a flutter on race day.

PD is not good enough to win the Derby. He has raced too many times for too low a rating. The people who are equating his chances with those of US Army Ranger are failing to grasp the substantial scope for improvement of classic colt between 2nd and 3rd starts. This is not to say USAR will make massive improvement or that he will win the Derby - it is just to outline the logic behind believing he could win the Derby whereas PD can't.

r are failing to grasp the substantial scope for improvement of classic colt between 2nd and 3rd starts

True. On its third run So Mi Dar probably improved 12lb today and was green.

It was PD's 1st race as a 3yr old and over 12f; if UAR is 5/1 for the Derby then PD ought to be nearer to that price and not 24/1 given the former was receiving 4lbs from PD.

PD has improved from 2 to 3 over a longer trip.

The two biggest factors for improvement for US Army Ranger for me are, firstly his inexperience yet he still beat a very experienced (by comparison) stablemate a mile clear of the other runners off a slow early pace which means you have to show a good turn of foot as nothing is slowing down as they would off a fast pace. You would have to be impressed with this from a cruiser which he obviously is.

The second factor is the track at Chester does not suit cruisers. The tight bends mean you are slotted in position and your pace is determined by the front runner. If you are a cruiser who can live with a strong pace and then kick off that (even though you are really slowing down over the last couple of furlongs) then you are not limited to the pace in behind a front runner around the turns of Chester and you can pressurise the lead to increase in pace on a more open track. This pressure from US Army Ranger on the lead on a more open track is what we havent seen yet from him. If he can cruise long enough without being let down too early then he could be coming to the 2 furlong pole at Epsom on the bit with the others rowing away (i think Midterm is a similar type hopefully he will show that tomorrow).

With So Mi Dar's scintillating performance in the Musidora, and assuming she avoids Minding and turns up in The Derby instead it would be extremely difficult for the colts to concede her 3lbs, unless Midterm pulverises his Dante field tomorrow; So Mi Dar is entered and could so easily run in The Derby.

The 3 in behind were bunched for second which devalues So Mi Dar's form today for me.

Good enough for an Oaks maybe but not the Derby with the colts

"Good enough for an Oaks maybe but not the Derby with the colts"

So Mi Dar beat 2 colts easily last time and the same two colts won their respective Epsom trials. And today's annihilation of her field especially Fireglow, has re-emphasised the two fillies ie So Mi Dar and Minding, of their superiority over the colts I firmly believe.

If I was the owner of So Mi Dar I'd go for The Derby as it's not only an easier race to win, the winner' prize money is also £300k more.

So Mi Dar
Fireglow 4l
Promising Run hd
Harlequeen hd

The 3 in behind finished together suggesting they arent that good, so for me this devalues the 4 length win

Not necessarily, in this case it showed the winner is a class above the others and special.

harlequeen ran no sort of race.
would have got a hell of a lot closer has she settled in the first half of the race.

also looked like she needed further.

This is the reason i covered my positions on the race with Wings of Desire at prices up to 27 last night. If I was the owner I would be asking why he cost me £75,000 supplement just to keep a low profile with the horse. Suppose Gosden can tell him to use the Dante winnings but the fact he ran him in the dante means he had the Derby in mind. They knew as Dettori swapped mounts from Foundation. Gosden will get away with it as the owner will be chuffed to have the Dante winner and Derby favourite.

eric_morris 22 Mar 16 23:44 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,167 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
The flat is tougher now as Gosden is very poor in giving out accurate information on his steers. Rare Derby and Arc double winner Golden Horn was underplayed by Gosden right up until the Dante imo intentionally. Not for financial reasons but dont think he likes the pressure of having the best. This costs antepost punters financially the bookies had a virtual skinner on the Derby thanks to Gosden not letting the public know the real quality he was seeing at home. These are the worst type of trainers for antepost punters.
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Wings Of Desire (WOD) is not for me despite winning given limited racing experience. I also think the form is suspect given the troubled run of Foundation, and proximity of Deauville.

If neither of the two fillies does not intrude I'll choose UAR over WOD but I'd not back either given better value could be had elsewhere eg Port Douglas.....that 4lbs conceded to UAR in the Chester Vase  cannot be ignored.

My money is on USAR

Saver on Port Douglas if givenca soft lead and they ignore him ..likely

But USAR best horse but a baby

eric_morris 22 Mar 16 23:44

This costs antepost punters financially the bookies had a virtual skinner on the Derby thanks to Gosden not letting the public know the real quality he was seeing at home


Sectional timings pointed to Golden Horn and Kingman both very likely being top notch on debut, Gosden disparaging such suggestions at least in the case of the latter ('such ante-post quotes are from the Theatre of the absurd' (paraphrasing)...sometimes you have to do the work yourself rather than expecting the trainer to gift wrap it for you

The sectional times for the Dante and Lingfield Derby were honest as it was run a good pace start to finish.  The Chester Vase times were not accurate as they only started racing 5f out,

Shows what a load of b******ks Segal has been coming out with. Stick to handicaps with inside info mate :)

shows you those AOB gallop reports on all the fansites were true and USAR is the real deal.  Didn't Segal say at 25s he wouldn't touch UASR with a bargepole?  Today USAR was ridden as if he would barely stay 1m 4f,  which was a huge tactical mistake.

All those supposed 'enlightening' basic layout fanzine sites only include 'cut'n'paste' racing articles that have/are freely available to anyone reading the SpLife or RPost well in advance of site posting. The site's statistics of horses to follow are nothing to write home about considering the vast amount of AOB Group winners  each year , and include obvious absences in any particular year. Old news you can see in the wind and leaves running down the street. They have no legitimate 'insider' news from the stable that is not freely available elsewhere on line to those who can be bothered to search and read in the normal places. Tom Segal's percentages for sometime have been very, very low. Anyone who takes on his tips is on a long losing run, and if he tips any of mine, I get out rapidly even when I have to take a big loss. Doom and gloom merchant.