Horse Antepost
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Just one more run before the Derbi
Hum Entered in the Dante i noticed  |
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I was impressed, start of ante post favoritism - i have got on at 10s.
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Kept his balance when having to hustle past his stablemate to come through a tight gap augurs good for the balance needed at Epsom.
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Let's hope he is a bit more robust than his siblings Words and Nevis who had very short careers.
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Was a very nice introduction and he will relish the Derby trip for sure.
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One winning run and the "Derby" trumpet is being blown in earnest by AP O'Brien - what happened to Ol' Man River, John F Kennedy and Highland Reel?
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Would need to improve about a furlong.
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short as 6/1 with some firms.
Anyone else trained it would be longer,imo. |
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very green in the parade ring and you would expect a lot of improvement- long way to go to G1 but that was a decent performance
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Ashaq hardly advertised the form.
4/1 for The Derby someones having a laugh |
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Ashaq could possibly have bounced although USAR wouldnt be for me..
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I still believe Us Army Ranger is just another one of APB's hyped horses - until he runs in a proper Derby Trial eg The Dante - done nothing apart from beating a short priced 'fav' / runner from another Irish stable of past mega reputation; I'd still back Foundation for The Dante over Us Army Ranger and/or Epsom Derby given known form. At 9/2 it is a blindingly silly price for and only for the O'Brien faithful (or foolish) I'm afraid.
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Remember IG
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I remember IG (ran 4x - won 2 lost 2, totally ground dependent), John F Kennedy, Ol' Man River, Highland Reel, and many others too. And at 9/2 Us Army Ranger is an absolute stinker of a price having achieved so little, and until winning a recognised trial eg The Dante, it is best not to indulge.
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won when it mattered
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ffs
Highland Reel is a good horse but not as good as APB alluded to. Also, we are talking about the Epsom Derby ie 1m 4f. Highland Reel was touted as a Guineas, Derby and even a possible St Leger runner; Highland Reel ran in the Irish Champion and was trounced by Golden Horn, and Jack Hobbs in the Irish Derby; I do realise Highland Reel won a Gp3, Gp2 and 2 Gp1 (overseas) but against runners that were not top class apart from Flintshire (a 2nd specialist)- Flintshire also had had a hard Arc prior, a race Highland Reel did not run in. I'm sorry if you think on what Us Army Ranger has achieved so far he's a worthy Epsom Derby 'fav' at a 9/2 price then each to his own; if you also think APB does not regularly ooze uber confidence about his juvenile charges with a win or two in Ireland alone eg Ol Man River, John F Kennedy, etc, then each to his own again. Sorry, until Us Army Ranger (UAR) runs in the Dante at York or a Derby Trial in England I'd be extremely cautious about backing UAR for the Epsom Derby at 9/2. |
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Decent if unspectacular performance from Midterm today. 6/1 for the Derby should be a joke price but there is a paucity of candidates this year.
Who has first dibs on Ryan Moore, Coolmore or Stoute/Abdullah - or is he a free agent who can ride whichever he thinks has the best chance. |
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A respectable run from Midterm today nonetheless a proper trial is needed to justify a 6/1 quote on current form; Us Army Ranger, Foundation and Midterm, if so, very interesting and which will one choose? For me, Foundation - strictly on form.
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Paucity of candidates after one trial doesn't mean paucity of candidates after all of them. Two joke prices at the head of the market imo.
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Dont think Foundation will be within 10 lengths of the Derby winner myself.
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eric_morris
I wouldn't be so sure. Foundation has the best form of those at the front of the Epsom Derby betting market; my main concern is the likelihood of Foundation staying the Derby trip but connections had a similar doubt last year with Golden Horn, the rest is history. As a matter of interest who do you think would be the most likeliest winner of the Epsom Derby then? |
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Foundation is a unlikely to stay well enough to to win a Derby in my view. Golden Horn was bred to stay at least 10 furlongs whereas Foundation has more of a miler's pedigree.
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*Foundation is unlikely to stay well enough to win a Derby
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Surely the question with foundation is whether he will be good enough, i know that ground at newmarket wouldn't have suited but it was a wretched performance, i wonder if he doesn't quite have the tactical speed for the derby, could see him getting caught in a pocket or blocked in and that was even if he stayed the trip which i now think is doubtfull. I was quite positive on him before but i am starting to lose faith.
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I wouldn’t put a sausage on Foundation even if he was 50/1+.
Although his extended pedigree has G1 Prix Royal-Oak winner Ardross and G1 St Leger scorer Scorpion a few generations back, I can’t see Zoffany producing a Derby winner. Zoffany’s sire Dansili needs a dam’s sire with staying influence to produce a top class MD horse. In Foundation’s case he has Polish Precedent and the Danzig line to rely on. Not much hope there. I also think he hits the ground quite hard and would much prefer give in the ground which wouls seem unlikely on Derby day. Moreover the winner of the Royal Lodge Stakes has not produced a Derby winner since Benny the Dip. Good looking horse though. |
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He should stay 10 furlongs no problem but I think he is unlikely to stay the 12 furlongs at Epsom, and if you don't truly stay you don't win the Derby.
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Foundation simply doesnt look good enough, not enough class he is well over-rated, lacks scope think what we have seen is as good as he is. Gosden will have another candidate in the wings for the Derby he is keeping us waiting.
I have a couple for profit in the race and they are Midterm and US Army Ranger. I thought it was a tremendous performance today by Midterm and he should be strong Derby favourite after that. Everything you could want from a seasonal debut and more. Looks real class to me and will come on from that a ton just as US Army Ranger will. Midterm's race had a real quality feel to it the way he came going much easier than the rest, which will help keep his balance at Epsom as the jockey wont have to get serious until late, then the front two quickened well away off a decent pace testing Midterm's resolve, turn of foot and staying power under pressure. He was still going away at the line 6s is great value as think after his next trial he could be under 2s. To answer your question impossible123 i think Midterm will win the Derby. |
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OMR and JFK didnt train on so dont think they can be compared with US Army Ranger who has shown a great turn of foot to win this season. The opposition is questionable in his race which is another reason why i prefer Midterm.
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UAE Prince is the most interesting horse to see now.
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I thought the Ballysax was a better trial. Looked two very good horses in first and second to me.
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Aiden very bullish about this one at Chester yesterday. I`m still to be convinced and have had a little each way on Dazzler`s mount.
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Is Hit It A Bomb ok? There seems to be no news about him at all. He's not injured I hope.
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Still not convinced. Improved from debut but still needs to improve markedly again.
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Moore might not have a difficult decision to make regards his Derby mount if Midterm excels next week.
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But he's claimed by coolmore isn't he? So doesn't get the choice.
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Think the winner had a bit more in hand than it looked.
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