Scilly isles - Bristol De Mai

the books made a major rick going 8/9-1 on this if you could get on with the 3 places.

1-mullins had 5/6 entered,would not be surprised if none turn up,possibly 1.

2-the short priced fav was always going to drift, might win but looks more a 3m horse to me.

3-probably be 5-6 runners.

bdm being usually a front runner should trade pretty low in running if thats your game.

good luck

Actually think we might get a field for this race for once, Mullins or not, but early play for 3 places still sensible.

Tea For Two is an intended runner.  The booking of Johnson for Maximiser also a) catches the eye and b) looks a sign of intent to run

Ubak looks a runner too....

Has the performance of BDM this weekend any implication on L'Ami Serge's running plan for Cheltenham?

Almost certainly I'd say.

Not for me. L'ami Serge is a different level to BDM so they'll go wherever they want with him imo.

Agreed Sint. Thought it was an interesting comment in PW RSA piece that Twister was 'hoping' to run in JLT. If they choose to go JLT with L'Ami Serge, BDM may go to RSA regardless

on better ground at the festival I'd want BDM to be running over as far as possible and pray he lasts it out.

I can't believe they're thinking JLT.  I'd fancy him a good bit for the RSA though.

Depends on Vyta du Roc as well I suppose. 4th in the Neptune last year staying on, and has had entries in some 3m races (see he's been pulled from the Wetherby race this weekend).

To me Id say the clear favourite is:

Arkle - L'Ami Serge
JLT - Bristol de Mai
RSA - Vyta du Roc

I'd be surprised if they prefer to have two runners against each other in one race and none in another when the above suits each runner pretty well.

I'd agree with that but iimvho, their best chance of a winner is L'Ami Serge in JLT and that's the conundrum

I still think Vyta du Roc might have won the Neptune but for his catastrophic error at the last... he's definitely an outsider for the RSA imo

All things being equal, will L'Ami Serge (LA) win the Arkle against Douvan - NO!
"    "      "     "     "       BDM           "   "   JLT     "      KV   - NO!
"    "      "     "     "       LA            "   "   JLT     "      KV   - YES!

If one was the owner of LA and BDM, to win one of the two races or none at all? No brainer given LA's lack of pace against Douvan and its propensity to jump occasionally big at fences.

Lack of pace?! Don't see that in the slightest myself.

Who knows. We can all see the conundrum, lets see what happens with their runners between now and then. If BdM bombs out this weekend, it will be more likely Serge goes down the JLT route. If he hacks up, less likely.

Quite right imo CCM i am hoping for the same pockets not talking of course

Arkle - L'Ami Serge 10/1 though topped up with a 7s any race bet and a very small 12s jlt saver but by far and away prefer the Arkle
JLT - Bristol de Mai - On at 16s
RSA - Vyta du Roc - bet him when pw put him up at 33s

Those comments a week or two back suggested they were looking strongly at the JLT with L'ami, don't think they fancy Douvan much,they know he'll stay the trip they've absolutely mullered KV before and although there is plenty of conjecture about his supreme run, he wasn't in an ideal spot when his troubles began and even up to the first two hurdles it didn't look ideal IMO.

I think Vyta du Roc will go to the Reynoldstown now based on Henderson's comments in PW RSA preview.

I think they are on the right lines personally - we need to see how L'Ami Serge gets on in the Kingmaker (be interesting to see what else turns up) - I would n't be for running Bristol De Mai in the RSA where he would just get 1lb from the older horses (Star De Mohaison got 10lb when he won as 5yo).

There's nothing to stop them running both L'Ami Serge and BDM in the JLT obviously if they think that's the right call - also be interesting to see how Run Ructions Run gets on in the Towton tomorrow as that will give an indication as to how competitive L'Ami Serge's romp over 19f at Wetherby was.

I have no bets in any of the races but personally I'd like to see L'Ami Serge run in the Arkle - competitive owners would surely take the view that one in each race gives them three chances of winning as opposed to two. I do get the distinct impression that some on the forum would be quite happy to see Douvan rock up and jump around on his own for a walkover, call me old fashioned but I'd like to see a competitive race - it was only 2 years ago that Western Warhorse (whatever happened to him?) beat the previous year's Supreme winner in the Arkle.

Actually does anybody know who was the last Supreme winner to win the Arkle the following year? (genuine question, I've had a quick look and am struggling to find one).

was n't meaning you duffy as wanting a Douvan walkover by the way...comment not prompted by your post, just general reading on Cheltenham forum.

This is no two horse heat by any means. IMHO He may not quite be good enough but, As De Mee gets his optimum conditions for the 1st time this year and shouldnt be a 18-1 poke...

Thats just it zilzal, he isn't good enough, ideal conditions or not. He was well held at the time he fell lto at kempton, the race T42 won giving LK a first grade 1 and making history

anything can happen sts you know that ,pumkin was bang out of form at the time he has had a few winners in the week don't fancy him myself (as de fer that is) nothing cut and dried in this game

That much is true foyleswar. Sadly, that much is true

its what keeps this game so interesting ,the uncertainty ! and we keep coming back for more ! good luck

NJH has said today Lami goes for the Arkle after the Kingmaker.

In fairness Sint, he's been saying that most of the season!

yep but a more recent affirmation from the comments from Jacob after his last win.

re BDM...I think NTD gives his horses 1 or 2 more runs than they need. It'll be his 6th chase of the season tomorrow, 7th if he goes to the festival...you'd probably want him a bit fresher if you were backing him imo.

^ I agree in terms of the Festival but he's won a Grade 2 and finished runner up in a Grade 1 with another opportunity tomorrow. Generally I prefer his approach to the 'cotton wool' attitude of, say, NJH - he's done well to persuade the owners to keep running though!

No bet for me tomorrow though I quite like BDM's chances. I think the Gary Moore horse Ubak has been overlooked as well.

Backed Bristol De Mai win.

Amount of runs pre Fez very much depends on horse (and to a lesser extent trainer).

NTD's Young Hustler was having his FOURTEENTH start of the season when he won the RSA ffs!!!

14? Fuc kin hell must be some sort of record

and after that he ran him at Aintree, sint

oi oi well done winners and thank you paddy.