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montgomery brewster
16 Jan 16 17:40
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Date Joined: 04 Aug 03
| Topic/replies: 126 | Blogger: montgomery brewster's blog
any thoughts anyone, anyone know if fingal bay is going to run?
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Report Inlander January 16, 2016 11:04 PM GMT
My noly thought so far is that it was a masterstroke taking the rating band of this race.  I never knew why it was capped at 150/155 anyway.

Who was responsible?  Doncaster? Slybet? BHA?
Report Inlander January 16, 2016 11:04 PM GMT
Yes, to clarify, those are my noly thoughts
Report traveltips January 17, 2016 11:10 AM GMT
you must have omre thoughts than that
Report roobuck January 17, 2016 6:41 PM GMT
No idea if plans to run, but Southfield Theatre seems fair @ 20s
Report betilyerded January 21, 2016 2:30 PM GMT
If I knew that Southfield Theatre was going to run and the ground was on the good side (and the owners other entry Sam Winner was also going to line up to keep the weights down) then 20-1 would be a fantastic bet.

Of Nichols entries, Salubrious and Virak run at the weekend, Rocky Creek and or Black Thunder will no doubt be aimed at the Haydock National Trial a couple of weeks later unless it turns soft at Donny where I think one of them would run, possibly along with Le Mercurey but on good ground I dont doubt he will be his runner, probably with Harry Cobden up.

Fingal Bay declared for saturday too so cant see him running at Donny.
Report IrisDeBalme January 25, 2016 7:29 AM GMT
DOLATULO 25/1
Report nocturnal January 25, 2016 11:30 AM GMT
Mr Nicholls certainly mob handed with 8 entered.

Suspect it will depend on likely ground,plenty of trainers out there with top of the ground beasts,waiting for better class races on decent going.
Mon Parrain and Black Thunder both look on workable marks if theres any gd/sft in going,further down No Planning from the smith yard nicely weighted if not too much of a rise.
Noticeable how few entries are from northern based trainers?
5 day decs might clear the water a little,but not much I suspect.
Report Fabulous January 25, 2016 11:50 AM GMT
I've had a go on Yes Tom @ 40's.

Always felt there was a decent chase in him, and this was the target last year, but he unseated early on. He was fairly lobbing along at Ayr in The Scottish National, before his jumping went to pot down the back straight, losing all momentum, eventually finishing down the field. Certainly has to improve his jumping, but I feel that trip at Ayr just stretches him, and affected his jumping, he also finished down the field the year before. This looks more suitable, and off the back of an easy win, albeit over hurdles, I've taken a chance.

Watch him not get declared now Grin

I'm definitely going to bet another though, and like Noc, hoping things become a bit clearer after the 5 day decs.
Report Fabulous January 25, 2016 1:39 PM GMT
Laugh
Report IrisDeBalme January 25, 2016 7:40 PM GMT
Also backed BUYWISE - Most interesting horse being upped in distance - think this might be the making of this horse... has another option at Chelt but this is his preference
Report slowerthanjohn January 25, 2016 8:05 PM GMT
Buywise ran over 3m last season at Aintree, no doubt a very talented horse but not going over the cliff this time! So everyone else lump onWink
Report unclepuncle January 25, 2016 8:50 PM GMT
Anacotty @ 14/1 would be my initial fancy but I see A.King also has the ante post fav so not sure what the plans are so will hang fire.
Report betilyerded January 25, 2016 9:19 PM GMT
Be surprised if Anacotty doesnt go to Cheltenham same day.

Must admit this one is a bit of a puzzle. Now Southfield Theatre has defected Im tempted by Black Thunder at 20-1 Corals. Dont think he is the outandout mudlark they make him out to be and running off the same mark when second at Ascot last year.Hasnt been disgraced this year and actually "won" the Welsh national after unseating Harry Cobden who may get another chance on Saturday though would prefer Schofield up.

Rain is forecast which wont hinder his chances and assuming he runs I think that is a fair price.
Report nocturnal January 26, 2016 1:46 AM GMT
Fab....Sad

Betil....think he,s interesting,both runs this season travelled well,chelt slipped 2nd last otherwise would have been closer.Soft would be ok,never seen him either as mudlark.
Mentioned welsh national pre race, whether its worth a claimer sometimes,very soft u/r there,from a promising young jockey,like all good horses though,see he only did enough after the last to keep the mark downWink
Not involved until overnight decs for me....20/1 is overpriced.
Report betilyerded January 26, 2016 9:09 AM GMT
Ive had a little bit e/w at 20's but think youre right to wait as theres a chance he will go to Haydock in a few weeks time for the national trial.
Report Fabulous January 26, 2016 10:32 AM GMT
Cheers noc, no major harm done, as only a few quid, and was always going to back another, but I really did like Yes Tom.

I've went with betil, and gone for a PN horse, but I've went for Rocky Creek @ 20's EW. Just a few quid again, as not a race I've got a great record in, had If In Doubt last year, and Renard AP, but before that loser after loser Cry so very wary, and at the moment after Yes Tom I'm reverting to type.

Apart from Rocky Creek, I'll definitely wait until the day, but want to be double handed. I like the favourite Ziga Boy, however might add Gullinbursti, Le Reve, or Renard, and hope they're still available at roughly the prices they are just now.
Report nocturnal January 26, 2016 1:17 PM GMT
This race may well cut up further,forecast is dry according to one article,so ground might be ok.
Second guessing trainers always part of the jigsaw.
Ziga Boy only rated 132,so if King wants to get him into any future better h,caps, he needs a penalty.
Le Mercury 142 at present,thought he jumped really well in the dipper,not given a hard time.He would be very interesting in the novice handicap day 1 festival,2m 4f,however that race is limited to 140 OR,so a slight drop required?
No planning stands his ground,hated aintree,Quinlan huge negative for me,put both of smiths horses on the deck at aintree,her jumpers are normally very well schooled.
Patience requiredMischief
Report betilyerded January 27, 2016 3:17 PM GMT
Think Ive done my money on Black Thunder. Le Mercurey looks his horse with Black Thunder - as expected - entered in the Natonal Trial at Haydock.
Report luckyme January 27, 2016 6:08 PM GMT
I am deluded to hope for good to soft lads.  Crazy
Report stevo1 January 28, 2016 1:53 AM GMT
Backed Court By Surprise e/w at 25s fwiw, race may cut up so may have some sort of chance on last seasons form.
Report sintonian January 28, 2016 9:33 PM GMT
A little surprised Le Mercurey is heading the betting now..he got beat a long way last time out but it was Heavy ground against potential Grade 1 horses. Does he handle Good to Soft though? Thomas Brown runs tomorrow at Donny so the form of LM's Ascot win might be boosted.
Report sintonian January 28, 2016 9:35 PM GMT
He might handle it but LM never run on better than Soft.
Report Can't Catch Me January 28, 2016 9:49 PM GMT
Buywise for me. Think he will relish the better ground and step up in trip and doesn't look a particularly deep renewal.
Report Can't Catch Me January 28, 2016 9:56 PM GMT
Hills stand out 8/1 and NRNB to boot.
Report slowerthanjohn January 28, 2016 10:05 PM GMT
It's no longer ante post.
Report luckyme January 28, 2016 10:11 PM GMT
John, since when is it not ante post. thanks
Report slowerthanjohn January 28, 2016 10:14 PM GMT
Today at 11 ish
Report luckyme January 28, 2016 10:21 PM GMT
Thanks John.
Report Facts January 29, 2016 3:54 PM GMT
Happy with 6/1 BOG Le Mercurey
Report FELTFAIR January 29, 2016 7:13 PM GMT
Backed Holywell,Coologue,Court By Surprise and Ikorodu Road. All each way.
Report nocturnal January 29, 2016 8:11 PM GMT
You were right Betil........no Black Thunder,radar material that one.

Le Mercurey / Ziga boy arguably the two horses with most potential for improvement.Of the two,I prefer the latter,stone hike for his romp over c/d,as stated,he needs to go up from current mark if king has bigger plans.One of the best rounds of jumping lto you could see,striking resemblance to one of his previous chelt winners.... FORK LIGHTNING.

Whether he,s good enough, in a better race,time will tell,at the prices happy to leave this race alone.

GL
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 29, 2016 8:34 PM GMT
Backed Le Mercurey and Ziga Boy at 8s, Gullinbursti at 16s antepost 4 places, will add Double Ross and No planning first thing in the morning at the push prices in the pw tables as oddschecker is a sea of blue and them 2 are by far and away the strongest in the market at 8pm
Report tim6 January 30, 2016 12:45 PM GMT
Think Le Reve is a good bet today down in weight good jock and 3m his distance
Report sintonian January 30, 2016 4:05 PM GMT
Le Mercurey ran a shocker. PFN not in the greatest of form atm.
Report IrisDeBalme January 31, 2016 10:30 PM GMT
I hope BUYWISE gets a Grand National entry... might get left behind with too much to do... but this horse can pick horses off in a finish...

Only one bookie betting on him... but I think he has national written all over him.  Watch this space.
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