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betilyerded
14 Jan 16 20:44
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Devilishly difficult to solve at the best of times but having had a quick look at the entries and prices I have to say my eye is drawn to Sternrubin at 20-1 after his massive effort in the Ladbroke.
The way he rallied after making all at a strong pace to my eye marked him out as a hurdler to follow and given he won over C&D the time before he surely goes here with a big chance despite an 8lb weight hike.
Prominent racers have done well in the race recently and as he is coming into the race at the top of his game Im happy to take the price.

Lots of dangers and plots no doubt but for once Im keeping it simple.

Thoughts?
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Report Facts February 9, 2016 5:47 PM GMT
Sternrubin steadily attracting money - odds shortening.Happy
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 9, 2016 5:48 PM GMT
Hardly any rain today, almost felt like a spring day with sun out most of the day in Newbury.
Report SOULDANCER February 9, 2016 6:38 PM GMT
Sternrubin shortening cos Johnson says he's probably riding him.
  In Pricewise analysis for this race he mentioned Mullins is intent on winning trainers championship, hence the multiple entries.
  Any chinks in Blazer's armour? Well we don't know how strong the race he won is, although he did it well and looks more to come.
  Biggest question mark is can he jump hurdles at the speed they'll be going Saturday?
If Sternrubin jumps as well as at Ascot he'll have great chance, just hope he doesn't get one wrong at that pace. Really looking forward to this now and finding sleep a problem.
Report slowerthanjohn February 9, 2016 6:52 PM GMT
I think Blazer is a very well handicapped whether he runs here or waits for Cheltenham but I'd agree with BG don't think the form of his win Saturday was anything special but the manor in which he won was something else, like it's been said on here BG was trying to make he was riding him out Laugh
Report yeast February 9, 2016 6:56 PM GMT
No, sterrubin shortening because G Nutting has tipped him on the ATR website
Report Facts February 9, 2016 7:31 PM GMT
Who ?
Report yeast February 9, 2016 7:42 PM GMT
http://www.attheraces.com/tips/atr-tipsters/ante-post-focus

also tipped Starchitect which is also blue on oddschecker.
Report tim6 February 9, 2016 8:30 PM GMT
Like the look of Zarib will take the 20\1 in boyles with 4 places
Report sintonian February 9, 2016 9:23 PM GMT
Backing Zarib too. Still think he's well handicapped off 134 and the yard/jockey are in good form, another winner today.  The only question mark other than ability is will he handle heavy ground? Maybe, maybe not, but he has won twice on Soft so will chance it at 20/1.

I doubt Blazer will run myself..
Report roobuck February 9, 2016 10:37 PM GMT
As you know Sint from NH big race thread also with Zarib. One horse that possibly needs further so great chance to run into place at least. Ran good race in Ladbroke when stable out of form. Him and Sternrubin for me
Report Facts February 10, 2016 1:43 AM GMT
tim6    09 Feb 16 20:30 
Like the look of Zarib will take the 20\1 in boyles with 4 places



Should be able to get about £1.50 on with that joke of a firm !
Report stevo1 February 10, 2016 8:18 PM GMT
Got bad feeling re Modus showing? If it dont dry up a little.
Report Facts February 10, 2016 9:05 PM GMT
I'm banking on it not running.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 10, 2016 9:30 PM GMT
Dry today and a frost coming tonight.
Report ReaseHeath February 10, 2016 9:34 PM GMT
I can see the admirable Cheltenian running another big race even though he is handicapped up to the hilt. Will wait for the decs now though.
Report The Headmaster February 10, 2016 9:35 PM GMT
^ I can't see that too.....
Report The Headmaster February 10, 2016 9:36 PM GMT
FFs "can"....
Report sintonian February 10, 2016 9:37 PM GMT
Some money for Zarib today, all the 20/1 has gone. Bridget Andrews taking 5lb off will mean he'll carry just 10st2lb. Has to go close off that weight.
Report tim6 February 10, 2016 10:19 PM GMT
sure hope so Sint, he has good form with some class horses so should be thereabouts
Report SOULDANCER February 10, 2016 10:43 PM GMT
I see Zarib as the biggest danger now with the 5lb claim, but counting on Sternrubin to boss this race.
Report ashleigh February 11, 2016 11:51 AM GMT
any thoughts on which one ruby will ride.? or will he go to warwick or navan.
Report tim6 February 11, 2016 2:05 PM GMT
looks like a heavily backed coup taking place on Blazer which HM piked up on early top tipping there.
Anyone know anything about Bridget Andrews who is riding Zarib
Report ashleigh February 11, 2016 2:23 PM GMT
bridget andrews is one of the best female jockeys about, ridden plenty of winners for dan skelton. 
does help she is the boyfriend of harry skelton.
Report tim6 February 11, 2016 3:00 PM GMT
Ash say her on the last bar a very good ride looks like a good jockey
Report delsie777 February 11, 2016 4:13 PM GMT
Nicholls horses on fire! Wonder if BG has got this one right?
Report slowerthanjohn February 11, 2016 4:37 PM GMT
Wouldn't be the first time BG has got it wrong and won't be last but Schofield???? seriously not many can see that a positive booking? Has JP not forgiven STD for falling off that one of his? STD is up WPM in the race.
Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2016 4:41 PM GMT
perhaps Munir & Suede wanted STD to ride theirs 'cos Jacob will be at Warwick for L'Ami Serge...
Report slowerthanjohn February 11, 2016 4:47 PM GMT
Fair enough ReaseHeath just find it a little strange STD isn't riding for his boss.
Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2016 4:52 PM GMT
my guess is that Nicholls thought Geraghty would be riding his and had already let Sam off to ride Buiseness Sivola.

I could be wrong though - you might be right, maybe JPM did n't want STD.
Report slowerthanjohn February 11, 2016 4:59 PM GMT
No that's probably it RH just wasn't sure if anyone had heard anything, what you say seems most likely. Just can't believe if Modus has been plotted up that N.Schofield ends up on it, obviously BG has jumped ship but personally would have loved to see young Jack Kennedy come over and take a handy 3lb off as he's ridden a few winners for JP in Ireland and looks a top top prospect.
Report sintonian February 11, 2016 7:04 PM GMT
No chance of that happening Nightfly. Modus will be running to his best, it would have only been in the last week that the owners running plans have changed, it's only affected Nicholls with a jockey change. He has still trained the horse for it and is not interested in playing games when there is £80k up for grabs.
Report roobuck February 11, 2016 7:17 PM GMT
Am surprised he hasn't put Cobden up though to offset possibly a better handicapped one.
Report sintonian February 11, 2016 8:57 PM GMT
I am amazed Blazer is the price he is. He's had two failed attempts over fences this season then beats very ordinary horses last time out. The 2nd and 2rd in that race are 0/10 in races under rules. He's young and unexposed but then so are a lot of others.
Report sintonian February 11, 2016 8:58 PM GMT
*3rd
Report stevo1 February 11, 2016 8:59 PM GMT
Will be 5s on Saturday, fickin mad price 7/2 imo.
Report roobuck February 11, 2016 9:31 PM GMT
Hope the guys who went for it at 33s have laid off accordingly - agree it's a silly price. Regardless of how well hanicapped he may or not be, young horse running a week later and after a long journey
Report Can't Catch Me February 11, 2016 9:32 PM GMT
Agree his price no is crazy. Guess Baz getting off the 5/1 fav for him has done that though.
Report The Headmaster February 11, 2016 9:46 PM GMT
I've not given a penny back and I don't expect you too either CCM Grin

Sod getting my stake back - whacking 33/1 shots with 10lb in hand that go off 5/2 doesn't happen every week.  My ****'s on the chopper and I intend to leave it there.
Report Can't Catch Me February 11, 2016 9:48 PM GMT
Yep me too HM. Not overly interested in getting my stake back. Happy to let it ride.
Report roobuck February 11, 2016 9:50 PM GMT
Enjoy the ride HM Grin
Report Facts February 11, 2016 10:04 PM GMT
Totally agree. Back a horse to win and go with it. Happy
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 11, 2016 10:55 PM GMT
Got a feeling this plot and Modus might be a disguise. I will be keeping a close eye on other Mullins JP and RR owned runners in the market! Just seems to obvious to me, why let the cover be blown before the day of the race? Ok, JP did it with MTOY and GMOOH, both of which i was on at top prices i hasten to add and Nichol's successful with Zarkander was a bit of a gamble but am not sure.

Like the above poster says, less than a week after last on a race track is what i would be worried about, however, not so sure about any travelling as seem to remember a certain Wicklow Brave who won the County last year after being well supported for 3 competitive handicaps beforehand and did nothing in them but then to dot up on that greatest day! He never went back to Ireland at any point during that time (Dec' - March) and am pretty sure Blazer would have stayed in England too though unlike WB there has been no mention of that anywhere in the press. Not an aftertime as posted the same line about WB last year but don't keep track of threads on here but was on at 28s and was one of only 2 lads in the whole of the betfair vip tent to be screaming as he went 4 clear jumping the last!

Kalkir ran a brilliant prep lto, after being smashed up in the antepost lists for that (14s - 6s in a place) he was allowed to go off 12/1sp but that was after drifting to 16s in the market on the lead up to a very competitive handicap won by Henry Higgens. He went massive on here (20s+). Korals 25/1 is of interest for sure!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 11, 2016 10:58 PM GMT
None of those horses that did it after an obvious gamble were trained by Mullins, they were Henderson and Nichols obviously. Given the way he went about Wicklow Brave last year, am not sure if it is his style eitherConfused
Report ReaseHeath February 11, 2016 11:52 PM GMT
I'm not following that STS - why would Blazer have stayed in England when he won a handicap at Leopardstown 5 days ago and is French bred, Irish trained and has raced 3 times in France and 3 times in Ireland?
Report Arklearkle February 12, 2016 12:11 AM GMT
Yes I reckon Seathe you've got things mixed up a bit - the tension and the build-up is getting the better of you. Its a bit early to be sweating up - you may have to try that powder they put between the horses legs!
Report duffy February 12, 2016 12:15 AM GMT
How the fook did he slip the Betfair VIP tent in there ffsGrin
Report stevo1 February 12, 2016 12:33 AM GMT
I was on at top prices as usual after-timing ffs how many times. You gotta laugh its likes Fantasy Island.
Report Arklearkle February 12, 2016 12:35 AM GMT
Perhaps it was the one in Leopardstown or France even!
Report duffy February 12, 2016 12:48 AM GMT
STEVO

JP did it with MTOY and GMOOH, both of which i was on at top prices i hasten to add

That's the quality bit, that added bit of flourish to finish it offGrin

they love that sort of thing over on the aftertime thread, a classic entry.

WinkWink sts, all good fun.
Report stevo1 February 12, 2016 1:12 AM GMT
Absolutely all in the best possible taste.
Report liberator of the oppressed February 12, 2016 6:49 AM GMT
Be very careful with the chopper Head Excited
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 12, 2016 8:17 AM GMT
All good fun indeed guys i take it on the chin as usual Wink

I typed it out wrong i apologise, i meant to say that Wicklow stayed in England, having 3 competitive handicap starts before the fez where he was well supported but then allowed to go off a relatively unfancied 25/1 shot.

Well that was what i had in my head at the time of typing the above out anyways, i have an appointment at the quacks this morning to rest assured gents i am in good hands Crazy

That day i had last year though, unbelievable!! So wish i could put pics on here, need to figure that bit out as got loads from that day including Vicky P and Paul Nichols
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 12, 2016 8:58 AM GMT
Haha reported
Report SOULDANCER February 12, 2016 9:01 AM GMT
The weather forecast has improved, doesn't seem to be so much rain about.
Report FELTFAIR February 12, 2016 10:01 AM GMT
Not a favourite for me this race and this year is no exception.

Backed Ivan Grozny and Champagne at Tara, both each way. Little or no expectation.
Report slowerthanjohn February 12, 2016 10:05 AM GMT
First of all HM and CCM fair play to both of you for taking all the value and my respect to you for not laying any of it off, fortune favours the brave.

Another thing GMOOH was trained by Jonjo O'Neill STS add that to you list, you're talking when you should be listeningWink you sure there was someone else in Betfair Vip tent cheering WB? There wasn't a mirror in thereConfusedLaugh
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 12, 2016 10:27 AM GMT
Nope def just me and one other chap sat on a seat round the other side of the free bar near the big screen, It went very quiet and it is one race i wont forget! LaughCrazyLaugh
Report Facts February 12, 2016 11:02 AM GMT
Happy with the two I backed earlier in the week

Blazer
Sternrubin
Report dunlaying February 12, 2016 12:10 PM GMT
Chieftain's Choice e/w for small money. Well weighted on his best efforts.
Report M13 February 12, 2016 1:21 PM GMT
Have backed two , as i dont do each way. I went through the Irish horses and Mr Mullins(repeatedly) and came up with Ivan Grozny, Reasons for Trained by a Genius, is lightly raced, type to improve and love the jockey M Fogarty  has bits of form in the past on soft and represents Value for me at 40s had bits antepost on here at 70 . still a few quid at 60.

The best of the home team at a massive 66-1 (yes i like value) was Montbazon, Trainer in great form, had a treble or four timer at Doncaster the other week. Plus he's a Course/Distance winner in his time (4 years ago). Could also be ok in the Ground. Finally hes entered in The Arkle and The JLT at Cheltenham, no less. So he must surely still retain some ability. He's an attractive price for me.

Good Luck everyone.

Ivan Grozny @ 40-1
Montbazon   @ 50-1
Report slowerthanjohn February 12, 2016 1:30 PM GMT
M13 GL and I'm not an EW fan but at 33s plus surely you have to? Especially as some will be paying 5 places. Anyway each to their own mate GL
Report DECALEC February 12, 2016 4:26 PM GMT
Post removed STS have a look in that mirror that was in the fantasyland tent along with them fantasyisland bookiesExcitedCrazy
Report DECALEC February 12, 2016 4:30 PM GMT
2 against the hotpot AFFAIRE DHONNER & DICOSIMO
Report paulo47 February 12, 2016 4:49 PM GMT
WB jinked sharply left at Sandown and just totally missed the break at Newbury (Unlike Violet Dancer) , he had previously jinked left  against Faugheen at Punchestown . There was loads of money for him in both the Sandown race and the Betfair , but anyone who kept the faith got it back in spades in the County , where he was largely friendless , I guess he cudnt swerve left as the whole field was inside him (+ a different jockey ).
Report tomdeane February 12, 2016 6:11 PM GMT
0.5pt EW Champagne At Tara for me - like the low weight and think he can improve a good bit on his last run, with Jonjo's not in great form but hopefully turning the corner now. No great expectation but he looks the sort to appreciate a strong gallop and I think he can certainly win races from this mark (although whether he can win one this good is very much open to debate).
Report ReaseHeath February 12, 2016 6:15 PM GMT
Agrapart ew and War Sound for me.

It seems that Hobbs has been farming these races all season and I might well have picked the wrong one of his, we'll see.
Report Arklearkle February 12, 2016 7:09 PM GMT
I had WB in his two earlier races and I knew when he appeared on the outside in the county that it was all over. Hadnt a penny on him. A dog methinks.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 12, 2016 7:19 PM GMT
Fair enough Decalec, you don't have to believe me. After all, am not your average poster on here that posts comments like that often trying to get any kind of recognition. It happened and genuinely if i could post photos on here i would!

I will try and use someone else's computer if you like and if not will even open another account to see if there is some sort of block in place but genuinely if i could prove it i would! FantasylandConfused I thought that was near SkegnessConfusedLaugh
Report unclepuncle February 12, 2016 7:22 PM GMT
FELTFAIR
12 Feb 16 10:01

Backed Ivan Grozny and Champagne at Tara, both each way. Little or no expectation.


Great minds and all that.Laugh

1pt Ivan Grozny @ 70
0.5pt Champagne at Tara @ 70
0.25pt Modus @ 10
0.5pt Affaire Dhonneur @ 11

GL All
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 12, 2016 7:25 PM GMT
As for WB, for the 1st of those he was 33/1 the night before the race opened at 14s and went off 9s (Behind, effort 3 out, no impression when hampered next (op 14/1))

For the 2nd race he was 25s the night before the race opened 12/1 went off 9s (Swerved left start, always well behind, tailed off when pulled up before last (op 12/1))


For one or both of the above races he was the subject of a price wise tip too.

No fantasyland Wink
Report roobuck February 12, 2016 8:06 PM GMT
Not trying to get recognition STS? Are you for real?

Mention your apparent success on WB, MTOY and GMOOH? Why do that unless you are a shameless aftertimer trying to prove how good you are if they happened. But you would still have had at least 12 other losers each race as that's how you bet.

And you claim to place all your bets in shops. Yet you are invited to the Betfair VIP tent?

I've had a tough week. Thanks for making me laugh so much.
Report slowerthanjohn February 12, 2016 8:10 PM GMT
roobuck I think STS was invited to the Betfair VIP tent as a guest speaker because he sure likes to talk a lot Crazy
Report DECALEC February 12, 2016 8:28 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughMischief
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 12, 2016 11:24 PM GMT
My brother  backed Splash of Ginge & Violet Dancer in the last 2 years,  we are going for the 20th year in a row tomorrow. im hoping he has a tip for me.

Im still hurting on the last flight fall of Far West Cry

I have backed Sternrubin & War Power AP, more i look at WP the less well handicapped he seems, won weak races and even though he ran a better race than his finishing place showed at aintree, it was a weak handicap. But he still has potential.

I want to back Blazer but the price is not for me now, but for BG to get off Modus means something. Not that i rate Modus as a 2miler.

Small ew bet on Matorico at 33/1 for me.
Report deepingfox February 13, 2016 12:52 AM GMT
AFFAIRE DHONNER for me.  Love these 2M handicaps.
Report Satrus_Froot February 13, 2016 6:24 AM GMT
Don't know if anyone has wrote up anything about Mad Jack Mytton or Zarib yet, can't be bothered to trawl through the whole thread, but the two that stick out like a sore thumb to me are MAD JACK MYTTON and ZARIB, particularly the former.

MJM has really been underrated by the handicapper IMO, at least 7 pounds worth on his last run. His last race was a solid effort in soft ground at Cheltenham closely behind Solstice Star giving him 25 pounds. Solstice Star has since gone on to win off 127 again at Chelters and is now a 134 horse. That's serious form. If he puts up a performance of that standard again he'll win this doing cartwheels, and he's 22/1. It's not unusual to see a nice price winner come in in this race.

Zarib is handicapped about right I'd say, but has showed steady improvement this season and has good course form as well as form on soft. Would imagine he'll take well to today's conditions.

At the prices I couldn't fancy some at the head of the betting, they may like heavy ground but many look a bit overrated by the handicapper, it will take some getting in these conditions today so rather be with the ones off the lighter weights who look well in.

I like Modus too but won't back him today. He's one I have my eye on for the Supreme at the festival next month to place at a nice price, looks better on good ground.

MAD JACK MYTTON @ 22/1
ZARIB @ 18/1
Report Facts February 13, 2016 6:34 AM GMT
You really should be ' bothered '  !
There's some good write ups by knowledgeable people on here. That's the whole point of the threads in this Forum.
You never know,(as a ' newby')  you just might learn something.
Report Satrus_Froot February 13, 2016 6:38 AM GMT
I usually would but haven't kept up to date with this thread and would like to read the whole thing but ain't got time this morning.
Report Facts February 13, 2016 6:56 AM GMT
Fair enough . Good luck with your bets.
This a cracking race, really looking forward to it Happy
Report SOULDANCER February 13, 2016 7:56 AM GMT
Doubts creeping in, nerves, don't like this heavy ground, god this is exciting!
Report The Headmaster February 13, 2016 8:13 AM GMT
I'm having at least one small saver on Mad Jack Mytton fwiw.  All other positives aside, that Champion Hurdle entry, while clearly optimistic, keeps winking at me.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 13, 2016 9:01 AM GMT
One horse I cant have is Zarib, hopefully come 350 i will look stupid. The horse has not improved a pound since the fred winter, usually a juvenile will improve by many pounds like Old Guard. And with time the P&C form is not what we thought it once was.

But he did run probably his best race lto without ever looking like a winner.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 13, 2016 9:36 AM GMT
LaughAll in good taste, all in good faith, all in good grown up banterLaugh
Report tim6 February 13, 2016 10:45 AM GMT
Zarib's last run in the Ladbroke shows the improvement he has made only 7L off
Sternrubin and today getting approx a stone so at the prices will take Zarib.
The other horse worth mentioning is Kalkir think this horse could be class
2nd to Henry Higgins in the Coral.ie hurdle. Given a very strange ride by
J Ricou that day, think this may be the one for the Mullins coup.

Best of luck with Blazer HM not on and no value now but best of luck.
Report SOULDANCER February 13, 2016 4:12 PM GMT
Well done ReeseHeath.
Sternrubin never got going, disappointing right from the start.
Report roobuck February 13, 2016 4:33 PM GMT
Well done all winners and some good ew touches. Personally got the race very horribly wrong
Report Facts February 13, 2016 4:46 PM GMT
Odd about Sternrubin. Never going at the same pace he's shown in last 2 races.
RJ had him right in pole position the first time they came in  - and I was expecting a flyer.
The false start meant a standing start second time round. And though Sternrubin was at the front as they set off, maybe that ' delay' had  somehow spoilt him and he switched himself off ?
Report Facts February 13, 2016 4:48 PM GMT
Good shout Reeseheath
Report The Headmaster February 13, 2016 5:13 PM GMT
Well done winners Grin

I enjoyed the ride too....what's next? Silly
Report paulo47 February 13, 2016 6:00 PM GMT
NW said no entries have been made for Cheltenham , but if you look at his Tolworth run , he jumped fine but always gave the impression in his body carriage that he would be happier going left handed , she had to tug him in a few times . So am sure they will be tempted .
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 13, 2016 6:20 PM GMT
Well done Reaseheath, makes yorkhill a superstar.

And well done to Nick Williams, a lot of people have written him off but he has a decent CV>
Report ReaseHeath February 13, 2016 8:01 PM GMT
Thank you, Facts, IS and others - don't mind admitting it ends a bit of a barren spell for me.

Agree about Yorkhill, IS - Tolworth form franked by O O Seven at Musselburgh last week too - but not as spectacularly.
Report ReaseHeath February 13, 2016 8:04 PM GMT
missed out Souldancer (thanks!)
Report sintonian February 13, 2016 10:27 PM GMT
wd rease and those with big ew prices on the placed horses.

Agree with Ibra that Zarib has seemingly made no improvement since last season. Thought he deserved the benefit of the doubt today but he folded pretty quickly after the turn for home.
Report Ibrahima Sonko February 13, 2016 10:32 PM GMT
Breathing like a rapist on a marathon past a kids school in the enclosure post race, not a good future for this horse, im hoping im wrong Sad
Report Facts February 13, 2016 10:59 PM GMT
Rather an unfortunate turn of phrase IS Sad
Report betilyerded February 15, 2016 8:17 AM GMT
Very disappointing run from Sternrubin. Never travelling and jumping like he can. Can only assume the ground was far too heavy.

Well done to anyone who backed Agrapart or indeed any of the placed horses. Had a sneaking suspicion that Starchitect was going to run well but didnt back it up with hard cash. That said, also thought Mad Jack Myton could go well but I think the ground did for him too. One to watch at Cheltenham on better ground.

All in all a massive anticlimax!
Report Facts February 15, 2016 4:16 PM GMT
I'm still of the opinion that the false start ' did ' for Sternrubin.
Report SOULDANCER February 15, 2016 5:22 PM GMT
Didn't like it when Sternrubin was having his girths tightened while the rest of the field were already jig jogging around.
Report SOULDANCER February 15, 2016 7:10 PM GMT
Affaire D'Honneur was very unlucky, perfect position fist go, got left at the second attempt.
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