Tingle Creek - Sprinter Sacre amongst others that could potentially be filthy each way with 3 places

I did SIRE DE GRUGY 16/1 each way

Think Sprinter is not running as trainer suggesting race too close ... Will run over xmas ... Gut feeling is that will be a very small field so went for SDG. Not the same horse he was few seasons back but surprised if he could not get placed... And there was a positive bulletin from trainer recently.

Sprinter Sacre will not run in Saturday's Betfair Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown with the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton his likely next port of call.

un de seauox is 4/7 on

Not really inclined to get involved but 22/1 Somersby - a horse who has finished 2nd in the last two Tingle Creeks and the last 2 Champion Chases - seems almost an insulting price to me - he showed his well being with another (albeit distant) 2nd behind a rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre last month. The problem I suppose is that theoretically you're giving the win part of the bet if the jolly runs to form and Somersby has no less than 6 x 2nds since he last actually won a race more than 2 years ago - on the other hand the fences at Sandown are n't the easiest to jump and one or two of Mullins have needed their first run (yep, clutching at straws!)

Anyway, I've no idea why Somersby is available at a bigger price than Josses Hill (a horse with palpable jumping issues which are surely likely to re-emerge in a G1 test around Sandown), three times the price of Simonsig (managed 2nd in a dubious hurdle race in his only run for 2.5 years) and twice the price of Sire De Grugy ( a horse apparently on the downgrade and beaten 8.25 lengths by Somersby off levels the last time they met).

I suppose you could argue that Savello is an even bigger price and could turn around Shloer form off levels but he does n't have the Sandown course form in the book, unlike Somersby (although based on his trainer's comments Savello will probably be ridden with a view to picking up the pieces for the place money).

In terms of filling places you can make a case for a handful of outsiders, I do agree with Somersby though but I have already played my hand with Sire De GRUGY.... So will stick with him ...

Not sure SIMONSIG will turn up for this as not sure Henderson would probably prefer Peterborough chase with him ...  So field may cut up even more...

Difficult to oppose the favourite.

Just backed Vibrato Valtat at 5.9. Looks too big a price for a horse who looked as though he has improved markedly from last year. Who knows by how much. He loves the track and has to run well - at the prices you have to oppose the fav as there certainly is no value in UDS.

Third Intention, at a huge price ,could just run into a place if big guns don't fire. It jumps and travels so well...what a shame it always seems to fold after the last.

Always like to look at the market and see what jumps out at me as being too big a price, looking at this market Simonsig is over priced at 7's, I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt last time, travelled as well as ever but didn't finish it off, his head carriage was fine and nothing untoward so prepared to accept that he just didn't have that bit of extra fitness needed on the day, he's an Arkle winner but with the time off he's still unexposed over fences with us not knowing how good he is, I thought the x factor looked to still be there with this horse the other day and with a couple Mullins bi guns perhaps needing the run a tad and with fitness on his side, I'll give him a chance.....if he runs

Am with you there duffy, with SS going to Kempton (is it) i personally can't see why Hendo wouldn't send simonsig to tingle creek. The 3 big trainers would all then be represented i.e mullins nichols hendo.

he could still be represented by running Josses Hill in the Tingle Creek and sending Simonsig to Huntingdon for the Peterborough.

Both entered in both races (as is Somersby).

Logically though, I agree it would make more sense to run Simonsig in the Tingle Creek and Josses Hill in the Peterborough where his jumping would be arguably under less pressure.

I don't know the running plans and as I'd just be guessing I'm loathe to get involved at this stage - logic is at a premium here anyway, NJH does n't want SS to have a hard race in bad ground against UDS but it's potentially OK for Simonsig (no chase run in 2.5 years) or JH (off since April) to do so, unless he's going for a racecourse gallop/schooling session in a Grade 1.

Mullins two weeks ago said UDS would probably go to the Hilly Way and he had n't really been thinking of the Tingle Creek, then, in time for his RP column on Saturday it was 'all systems go' for the Tingle Creek though he has still entered UDS in Tingle Creek today (in fairness that might be precautionary in case the weather upsets his travel plans).

Nicholls has two entered in Tingle Creek and a different two entered in the Peterborough - I reckon both his will run in Tingle Creek and Ptit Zig in the Peterborough - he might save Sound Investment for the big handicap at Cheltenham next week with young Cobden claiming off him.

So whilst NJH frets about UDS, Nicholls just does what he normally does i.e. not worry too much about the opposition and send the best horses he has to the most suitable races.

he has still entered UDS in Tingle Creek today

should read Hilly Way not Tingle Creek

NJH doesn't want SS to have a hard race in bad ground against UDS but it's potentially OK for Simonsig

Far be it from me to try and guess at a horse' state of mind but at Cheltenham for the first time in a couple of years it looked like SS confidence had come back as much as anything else enabling him to perform much like his old self, perhaps they see no sense in putting that at risk with a potential hard race against UDS, plenty of time to build mnore confidence into the horse before the big day in March.

yes, they may be concerned that he won't find much off the bridle if it comes to that but I'd have a similar concern about Simonsig - I'm not convinced the ground will be much worse than it was at Cheltenham although there is plenty of rain in the forecast towards the weekend - and anyway SS has run plenty of ggod races on 'bad' ground.

To me, it's symptomatic of the Festival being the be all and end all - I think TC is most valuable G1 2 mile chase outside the Festival?

For what it's worth assuming SS turned up in the same shape as for the Shloer, I think he'd win (possibly comfortably) so I'm just disappointed he is n't entered.

I understand their point of view, just wish that NJH would sometimes display the sort of confidence you see from Nicholls.

Well imho the fez is and rightly so the be all and end all of the jumps calender. I think it spot on that in a sport such as horse racing we have an 'olympics' where all the best horses through that season come together and compete. It's such an amazing spectacle and cos trainers are now thinking along those lines, it makes it easier for us punters to 2nd guess and make a few quid playing up the antepost markets and taking advantage when and where we can.
Well i do anyways

What's your guess then STS? Which horses do you think will end up in which races this Sat and Sun and why?

You started the thread suggesting SS and Somersby could be filthy each way in the Tingle Creek, so you're 0 from 1 but potentially 1 from 2 as far as I can see

I want vibrato valtat for £4200 ,third leg of a Trixie 1 winner ,in the fixed brush and SAPHIN du real Hennessy fear Mullins is going to spoil the party

josses hill would be interesting if hendo and co could sort out his jumping ,has stacks of ability  as placed efforts behind faugheen,vautour,and un de scaux at the last 3 festivals verify , just his jumping holding him back over fences ,hendo has said he is better going right handed ,don't look by the betting on here that he will go in the tingle creek but if he does and they have got his jumping sorted he is open to improvement and because of last seasons jumping issues he could be a bit of value ..........

josses hill has the beating of 2nd fav  vibrato on last seasons arkle form and has ground to make up on the fav but as said going righthanded and  if jumpings improved and he does line up then  50s on here far  too big imo

I was just guessing at the time reaseheath, if i had of thought it through properly i guess it makes sense for SS not to turn up against UDS. Of which i have laid today, only play in the race so far.

Special Tiara looks the ew steal for me. For all the doubts about the others, this fella tends to be targeted at the UK 2m races and the trainer stated that he desperately needed the run on his reappearance.
With the Mullins barn seemingly focusing strongly on the spring festivals, his superstars have to be taken on first time up, as evidenced by Faugheen & Vautours disappointing returns, so it's not as if you're just punting for the place. Bit of luck only 6 go to post and you've only half the field to beat for a return, lot of luck you scoop the lot. Best of etc etc

Willie just tweeted UDS out.

@WillieMullinsNH: Unfortunately #UnDeSceaux will not run this weekend. He has been a little flat in himself the last two days

Desmond

Totally agree. Backed Special Tiara e/w earlier in week at 20's, thinking he could nick a place. Now with UDS out i think he could win it from the front - great news!!

Shame UDS isnt running, i was looking forward to laying him at shorts odds on saturday.

I reckon Mullins was worried about the ground...he will run him in a 4 runner race somewhere in Ireland, we know how he likes to protect the 1's.....

Luckily I backed Special Tiara @16s (win) this morning and Vibrato Valtat (win) at 7/2, but SDG my main ew bet...

From a ante post betting perspective not too bad - but I am disappointed UDS did not turn up rather have him run and have some value at the prices... rather than the cut across the board.

Bit annoyed even more as I thought Simonsig would go Peterborough Chase with no UDS makes Hendersons' decision easier - definitely the danger now...

As for Mullins - what a yoyo ... shameful trainer... for those who backed UDS ... feel for them.

Luckily I backed Special Tiara @16s (win) this morning and Vibrato Valtat (win) at 7/2, but SDG my main ew bet...

From a ante post betting perspective not too bad - but I am disappointed UDS did not turn up rather have him run and have some value at the prices... rather than the cut across the board.

Bit annoyed even more as I thought Simonsig would go Peterborough Chase with no UDS makes Hendersons' decision easier - definitely the danger now...

As for Mullins - what a yoyo ... shameful trainer... for those who backed UDS ... feel for them.

Dec 2, 2015 -- 6:30AM, SEATHESTARS....NO1 wrote:

I was just guessing at the time reaseheath, if i had of thought it through properly i guess it makes sense for SS not to turn up against UDS. Of which i have laid today, only play in the race so far.

Well that worked out nicely, well done - I wonder if Hendo regrets not at least given Sprinter an entry now? By the time he gets to Kempton he'll be fretting about what happened in that race 2 years ago.

Disappointing that neither SS nor UDS will be running but makes for a competitive renewal, I reckon 8 of the remaining 9 will turn up now (with just Josses Hill being diverted to the Peterborough, though not sure of running plans for Third Intention).

Plausible cases made for all of 'em on here except Mr. Mole and Savello, personally can't have SDG and Simonsig at the prices due to recent form and lack of thereof respectively - will look to back Somersby ew on Saturday morning, can see the case for Special Tiara.

Just a thought on the ground - currently Good to Soft (Good in places) on the Chase course,less rain in the forecast now although potential for 8.5mm tomorrow night - even if they get all that it's not going to be desperate by any means (forecast could change again I suppose).

I note Mullins states UDS won't run this weekend, another U turn on Friday and an appearance in the Hilly Way still would n't surprise me.

One of those odd situations when looking at ew thievery. The defection of UDS obviously means that you've more chance of winning the race, but perhaps less chance of placing - as I'd assumed that the race would cut up to 5 or 6 runners (only have to beat two or three for a return), whereas now I expect 8 minimum (need to beat five). Still, mustn't grumble!

Personally dont understand why Vibrato valtat is 2-1 fav. What excactly has he done other than win (impressively) in small field soft ground novice chases and the haldon Gold Cup (receiving weight from Third Intention).

He was put in his place in the Arkle and is really only fav on potential and his trainer. Id prefer Simonsig at the prices but happy with Special Tiara, particularly now Fehily is riding.

He's fav because he ran well in the arkle considering he tried to win the race but had little chance against UDS, his efforts cost him that day as far as the rest of the season was concerned, up to that point he had been a highly promising novice, visually his comeback run was very impressive and he is very much on the upgrade.

The other huge factor is that we just don't know whether we have the old Simonsig on our hands or not.

The others aren't proper top class horses whereas these two are full of potenetial to become top class, Simonsig very well maybe already.

looks like josses hill going tingle creek according to sportinglife simonsig also goes !

The other thing I'll be watching out for in the race is whether Josses Hill jumps the first couple better, if his jumping has been sorted then he would be very interesting, it is fascinating that he's reappearing in a race that puts the highest premium on jumping ability...does this give a clue to an improvement?

Third intentention anyone at 33's with the books or 40ish on here. 4 length defeat giving the fav 3 pounds in the Haldon gold cup. Then got slammed by Vautour and ptit zig, could easily outrun his odds imo.

What's so annoying is the false prices - it's so obvious that prices for vibrato valtat will ease and be joint favourite with SIMONSIG ...
Not sure why bookies are trading lower on VV knowing very well it's a very open renewal...

Saturday morning these horses will be 7/2 joint favourites ...

Agree. It will jump and travel and definitely outrun its odds. Only problem is last 100 yards when capitulation nearly always occurs. Almost beat Captain Conan on course...but will always be susceptible to a determined challenge in final stages. Still great value to place.

I think Simonsig will go off fav. as the race gets closer it will be a similar story to SS first time out, people will remember that Simonsig had that X factor before the injury and last time isn't enough to dispel that.

Irisdebalme surely we want false prices so we can use them to our advantage,why would.it annoy you ?

agree but I do prefer the falser prices on the less obvious ones to be fair...

but short fav they're just pulling in the mugs to say its fancied ... the bookies have made there money on UDS so why all the games?

IrisDeBalme  I hope you are right but there is now way Vibrato Valtat will be 7/2 Saturday morning Though if he is I will come back on and apologise. I would be happy to see 11/4 and will definitely be interested at that price.

On Simonsig @ 6/1 so happy with that .

The bookies will have taken peanuts on UDS a/p imo.

Agreed, bookies will have taken next to nowt antepost on this race other than the few of us that like to try to pinch some each way value which in the grand sceme of things is less than peanuts. They will be rubbing their hands in glee now at the prospect of a competitive grade 1 and there sure to be an offer or two on Saturday morning with a couple of 'standouts' to max £50 or so!

Assuming it's the soft ground I'm expecting, I'd bite the bookies hands off if they offered 7/2 on Vibrato Valtat. He seems to be improving, has good form on soft ground, won here last year and looked impressive last time out.

I can't have Simonsig until he shows he still has his old ability. Yes, he was cantering all over Bob's Worth in a 2m4f hurdle race, but my gran could do that. He hasn't ran over fences since smashing the top class Baily Green by two lengths in the worst Arkle I can ever remember and he's now rising 10. I admit that he's the best of these if they were all at their peak, but I's be surprised if he's there any more.

The next best at their zeniths would be Sire De Grugy, who will also like the ground (assuming it's soft). But for me he has ran badly too many times now since that magical season, and seems to have forgotten how to jump.

Special Tiara needs better ground at this level.

Somersby might come second or third, but he won't come first.

Josses Hill would be interesting if his jumping was fixed, but this is a tough race to find out, especially as seasonal debut.

Mr. Mole won't mind the ground, but he's probably not grade 1 standard.

Third Intention is another that might place but won't win.

metcheck now showing 1.6 mm of rain between now and race time, going on chase course Good to Soft (Good in places) at 07.00 this morning (Going Stick = 6.1).

I'm not local so I don't know what it's done today - not convinced going will be soft on the basis of that information personally.

I also note race distance is 101 yards short of 2 miles, think that might favour Special Tiara as can recall him looking like a short runner even over two miles on at least one occasion previously.

Some of these points may be almost immaterial but they all play on your mind.

Maybe I'm wrong about the ground and will have to look at the race from a new perspective if that is the case, but there seemed to be a very significant amount forecast tonight (Thursday) when I looked earlier and there's been a monsoon where I am (though admittedly 100 miles away). There did seem to be some due Saturday morning too, but it looks like that may have changed, so I may be completely wrong there.

It's worth noting that there are strong winds forecast for Saturday, which they will be riding into up the home straight, so it could put a greater emphasis on stamina.

I was given a tip by a bloke who told me Gary Moore has said Sire De Grugy is back to his best. Then I saw these two rather conflicting articles quoted from the trainer and both out in the last week. One is upbeat, the other downbeat so will the real Gary Moore/Sire De Grugy step forward please?

BETWAY
I can report that all is A1 with Sire De Grugy and he is firmly on course for the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday week. He worked really well over six furlongs on the grass this morning and picked up his two lead horses nicely. He’s showing all of his old enthusiasm and seems to have come out of his Exeter disappointment well. We were all obviously gutted with that effort, but the one positive has to be that he did get himself back into the race after making a bad mistake and was upsides at the second last. The plan now will be to school him either tomorrow or Friday and then again one more time ahead of Sandown. He’s exactly where I want him to be and there are genuinely no negatives at this stage. Sandown seems to suit him really well – don’t forget he’s won two Celebration Chases and a Tingle Creek at the track. In fact, he’s unbeaten there over fences and has never been out of the three in all five starts at the course. He’ll head there fit and healthy and we’ll know afterwards whether he is still a genuine Betway Champion Chase contender.

SPORTING LIFE
Sire De Grugy, who won the Tingle Creek two years ago, has lost his sparkle of late and trainer Gary Moore admits he is close to entering last-chance saloon against the very best.
"He's got his work cut out," said the West Sussex hander. "I didn't feel he got back on track at Exeter (last of five behind Vibrato Valtat). "He launched himself at the first ditch again, which was disappointing as we'd done a lot of work with him - I hope he doesn't do it again.
"The only saving grace was that he was still there at the second-last but he didn't finish his race off like I'd have liked to have seen him do. "Jamie (Moore) said he wasn't fit, but I can't believe that. That was his theory, though, I just can't believe that. He'll be fitter on Saturday, but he'll need to be."

Moral: don't listen to tipsters or trainers.

Funny I read both too - but the feeling I get is there is a difference of opinion on the fitness of SDG . It seems the trainer feels he had him fit last time out and there maybe excuses for his running last time out but it was not fitness as what Jamie suggested.

I'm inclined to believe the horse can leave that form behind him and excel in the ground... It's a case of whether you go with viewpoint t of trainer or jockey - I'm with the trainer think a good round of jumping no hiccups will see him there or thereabouts.

just had 50 ew sire de grugy laddies very fair at 7/1

3 from 3 at sandown

@RacingPost: BREAKING: Simonsig is lame and misses Tingle Creek

marvelous rule 4 and only 2 places
jeeez
i give up

people who had 20s ST must be rubbing hands, now 11/4 with pp

those who got on must have known UDS wasnt running

I was on at 20's and had no idea UDS wasnt running. Just thought he was overpriced and a good e/w bet. Even more so now

good spot mate

now the hard part

True!

will be no morning market now punters ripped off 130%

What unusual turn of events... think there is a chance Jossies Hill coming out as Hendersons preferred option is Peterborough Chase because preference for the better ground...

Those of us who had each way prices at the beginning of the week will be even more annoyed if we don't get at least the places now! ...

This would have been an excellent Grade 1 2 seasons ago... doesn't really have that complexion now.

Surely they should abandon this race now? I'll make sure to be getting pints in when it's on. Wouldn't back anything in this with stolen. Hope Katie wins on Somersby.

*declarations already done for Peterborough Chase - Josses Hill not declared so likely to run

I was lucky enough to get 16/1 on Special Tiara earlier in the week, only danger I see is VV being an improver from last season, other than that I'm very confident tomorrow

How many people have posted to have got 16/1 and 20/1 AFTER UDS was declared a n/r.

I know, it feels dirty to post after the price crash, but I've never been in the habit of posting every single bet I have on here at the exact moment I place it.




can I still claim the 22/1 available earlier in the week?

Then don't post it at all. We've all learn't the lessons over the years. There are times when you bet on something at a track or a couple of mins before the off or simply don't post about the bet because you're out and busy etc. and it's impossible to post it on a forum or you don't tweet it.

So just suck it up and keep it to yourself.

I know this is kind of breaking what I just said above but to illustrate, the fixed Brush h/c hurdle thread, I said Baradari is another on my shortlist but I was gonna hold off backing him antepost. Not a peep from me when he bolts up as nowhere did I post that I bet on the horse. To claim in that thread I'd backed him would be an aftertime.

I know it's tempting when you have actually backed a horse at what 20/1 or something and he's a 7/2 shot now and you want to post about it. But it is after all, aftertiming.

Who would have thought Josses Hill would be single figures for a Tingle Creek after his jumping performances last season??
not me.......pretty poor race now.

Well done those that got lucky with the defections of the proper Grade 1 horses....although personally I would not be boasting about it.

I am gutted as I was gonna go and see UDS taking on SS and Simonsig would have been fascinating stuff.I was still gonna go when SS was withdrawn,but once UDS went that was it.Now Simonsig gone,not much fascination left for me.

If one of the novices steps up and produces something special,that would be good.

No bet for me but I will be cheering on old Somersby.

Race is indeed a damp squib now given what it might have been. I'm actually half tempted by Josses Hill at 9/1, he's better RH.

I think that Vibrato Valtat is progessive but Somersby is the value. Has the back form, soft ground might help him overcome a slight lack of pace at this level and an older horse might respond positively to a lady rider although I know that Nina is as strong as most of the men.

I was really looking forward to this race a week ago but this morning I came to the conclusion that I was trying to find the least worst option. I had no personal conviction on the winner. The strongest conviction I had was that SDG would not be in the first two. I was tempted to back him earlier in the week on those reports that he was back to his best, but I would love to know exactly where they came from. It seemed to me on the Morning Line that there was no conviction from Gary Moore. Just my opinion and I would love to see the horse recapture his form, something of a theme this season, but it's a shade over evens that he's out of the first two and that's good odds in my book.

There are bits of form for all the runners to win this and the race should be a swerve for me but want something to watch and have backed Josses Hill each way.

Change of mind,now decided Somersby at 9,s is too big in this field.
Small bet though!!

backed josses hill pre defections at big prices on here for buttons ,leap of faith that his jumping has improved but far from confident !

He certainly looked good as a novice and his Cheltenham form isn't shabby. You would have to think he was Henderson's third string in this which is off putting but it's not a great field.

yeah hurdles form was usefull , was untidy  at at least 5 fences in the arkle and did well to finish placed ,abilitys there but jumping fences cleanly  the big issue , going right handed should help

Thinking about it, as Josses Hill is a lengthy gelding who has had marked coordination problems with his jumping (watching any of his races over fences you haven't got a clue what he's going to do next), why is Henderson throwing him into the most difficult jumping race in the book without match practice? Has he seen a vast improvement at home? Was the horse late in? Did it have a minor setback in the autumn? Or is it desperation as his two big guns haven't made it?

Well I sure don't know like the rest of us.
What I do know is no way am I parting with any money on him in a 2m chase at Sandown!! Not from what I've seen of his jumping thus far anyway.
Let's hope he has improved his jumping though,cos I think he is a horse with a fair amount of talent.

Took a shot with Third Intention 25/1 3places.

Pretty consistent without winning...maybe things will fall right for him today.

Did a good job smashing up Joses Hill last year giving him 11 lbs, good efforts this year vs Astacad (gave him 26lbs), VV giving him 3lbs...willing to forgive his last run when he didn't stay vs Vautour and Pitt Zigg.

will probably grab a place here but you never know...this race lacks a real star for me...was really looking forward to seeing UDS down the backstretch and pinging those railways.

Layed SDG odds on for place. Messy for me if it comes in.

well done winners !

Ouch! Will be a while before I lay one again. Wouldn't want to play poker with the Moores. Well done backers.

Henderson running Josses Hill reniniscent of Oscar Whiskey last year. Lucky he got away with it. Seems it's trainers' title at all costs for that bloke.

I was on the verge of backing JH as thought he'd jumped ok to that point...got to be back to hurdles now.

Something doesn't work right in that horse's brain where fences are concerned. Didn't seem to take off at that one, just tried to run through it.

Didn't have enough chasing experience to jump round Sandown at that speed.

Glad SDG has proved himself against the likes of Special Tiara and Somersby and Co.. but no where near the level to win at Chelt in March, the one to take away from this race is Special Tiara quite confident this will place come March currently at odds of 25/1

He's got a chance if they can ignore trying to go in any way with what UDS is doing up front and rather nurse him round behind and pick up the pieces, problem is even in that regard it's very possible that you are only fighting for one place only, if SS is back which his last run gives real hope to.

it looks like the connections of Special Tiara may appeal, I think I will cry if they get the race, antepost bets don't count for dual results with the bookie I used