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betilyerded
20 Nov 15 14:59
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 28,733 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Christmas must be coming cos the entries are out.

Only had chance to have a quick look through and no surprise to see Cogry in as fav but 10-1 - do me a favour! Id take that at the 5 day but not weeks away.

Bookies seem to have it priced right so the only antepost play for me just now is Masters Hill at 20-1 with Vicky C.

Think it still lightly raced enough to have improvement but experienced enough to cope with the race. Has a 3 mile course chase victory under his belt, beat last years subsequent Whitbread winner Just A Par at Exeter last season and thought there was plenty to like about his reappearance run giving 7lb to a decent sort at Carlisle earlier this month, running all the way to the line in heavy ground (would have a 11lb turnaround at Chepstow should Salubrious reoppose - but I dont think he will).
The race was mentioned as a possible target earlier in the season with the only issue being he may have a tilt at the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle which the Tizzards have farmed in recent seasons with Hey Big Spender.
Winning that race used to be a big tick in the box when it was run at Chepstow but since being moved North has had as much bearing on the Welsh National as the Wokingham.

That said, I like to have an early play and with the likes of Rocky Creek or Black Thunder likely to line up he shouldnt have too hefty a burden off his rating of 144 so he's my pick at this stage.

Anyone have anything at a decent price worth looking at?
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Report sageform December 20, 2015 4:28 PM GMT
Bertie Boru my big price bet so far with Midnight Prayer my other choice.
Report Beryl December 20, 2015 8:31 PM GMT
Benvolio is 3 lb higher than last year. His rating has dropped 3 lb since the weights were published.

Last year he ran off 139, this year he will run off 142.

Still like his chance though
Report CVByrne December 20, 2015 8:40 PM GMT
Oh I was wondering if they revise the weights based on the actual mark at the 5 day decs. I thought on;y the Grand National was set weighs that didn't change.
Report Beryl December 20, 2015 8:46 PM GMT
Sorry, My mistake
Report IrisDeBalme December 21, 2015 11:45 AM GMT
I haven't really looked at the race yet... so backed initially on course form

Mountaineous 14/1
Shotgun Paddy 14/1


Speculative bets at the moment as some really interesting runners down the handicap, will see what unfolds during the week,
Report PJay December 21, 2015 12:57 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2015 -- 5:45AM, IrisDeBalme wrote:


I haven't really looked at the race yet... so backed initially on course formMountaineous 14/1Shotgun Paddy 14/1Speculative bets at the moment as some really interesting runners down the handicap, will see what unfolds during the week,


Hope you don't mind me asking what is your main aim in all these big races Iris? Is it simply to find the winner or is it to make a long term profit?

Report Facts December 21, 2015 3:28 PM GMT
Happy with Mountain Call @10/1
Report Facts December 21, 2015 3:30 PM GMT
.? . Wtf !

Where did that come from !?


Midnight Prayer ( obviously ) Happy
Report knot in wood December 21, 2015 3:38 PM GMT
facts-midnight prayer as legs of glass,was pulled out morning of the race last year.

might be worth waiting for final decs now,you should still get around 8/10s and possibly 5 places.

just saying like.
Report paulo47 December 21, 2015 4:31 PM GMT
Like Sageform am on Bertie Boru at 50s EW , hope the main man is onboard .
Report IrisDeBalme December 21, 2015 5:08 PM GMT
HI Pjay - as tough as it is I like to find the winner .. and I only bet with betting money...

tough game horse racing

What about yourself?
Report PJay December 21, 2015 5:10 PM GMT
All about long term profit for me Iris
Report IrisDeBalme December 21, 2015 5:23 PM GMT
Actually I think both have a clear correlation... the frequency of winners determines your long term profit.
Report PJay December 21, 2015 5:59 PM GMT
Value determines your long term profit. I only asked because (in my mind at least) it would be tough to find value in 3/4/5 selections per race. But each to their own. Best of luck with them. Still a fair bit to do myself.
Report the bloob December 21, 2015 7:46 PM GMT
my 3 at the moment are Woodford County 33/1, Firebird County 25/1, and Tour des Champs 20/1
Report the bloob December 21, 2015 7:46 PM GMT
sorry, should read Firebird Flyer
Report Facts December 22, 2015 9:20 AM GMT
knot in wood    21 Dec 15 15:38 
facts-midnight prayer as legs of glass,was pulled out morning of the race last year.

might be worth waiting for final decs now,you should still get around 8/10s and possibly 5 places.

just saying like.




Yep, know about his fragility, but if he's sound has a great chance. Took the 10's as I think he will be shorter on the day.
I don't back ew.
Report Deak the Greek December 22, 2015 5:05 PM GMT
OFaolains Boy is this a runner? cheers
Report Deak the Greek December 22, 2015 5:19 PM GMT
no just seen on RP cheers
Report Platini December 22, 2015 7:50 PM GMT
I backed Bertie Boru early doors at 50/1 but I'll probably back at least one other. I was on Mountainous LTO, thought he ran a very good race.
Report IrisDeBalme December 22, 2015 8:25 PM GMT
Fingers crossed Black Thunder runs - otherwise weights will go up 7lbs
Report IrisDeBalme December 24, 2015 10:01 AM GMT
I have added FIREBIRD FLYER @ 25/1 (my main bet)

Backed him a few times - quite frustrating type seems like a horse that plods for a place, but with the prospect of heavy ground, that plodding nature of his can outgun his rivals in this sort of race.  Definite each way horse but I have gone for the win.

Trainer stated in RP that this has been the main aim for the horse and that ground will play to his strengths. Trainer knows how to prepare horses for this type of race and horse has a great racing weight.
Report dyno-layer December 24, 2015 10:26 AM GMT
who rides him iris ?
Report dyno-layer December 24, 2015 10:27 AM GMT
conner orr would be well worth the 7lb in this race
Report dyno-layer December 24, 2015 10:28 AM GMT
i backed him at 33s and my only real issue is the hold up nature of his running style. Get well behind here and he may never get into it. Admit that is well factored into the price tbd
Report IrisDeBalme December 24, 2015 11:06 AM GMT
Sorry haven't got a clue... dyno - but cards should be refreshed at midday on RP.
Report Facts December 24, 2015 12:07 PM GMT
Risk the meeting will be abandoned! Going heavy ( waterlogged in places ) and more rain forecast.
Inspection on Boxing Day.
Report Facts December 24, 2015 2:53 PM GMT
As tomorrow is Christmas Day, I expected 48 hour decs to be today. But as Race is still showing 33 runners ( of which only 6 have jockeys ) I guess not !
Report IrisDeBalme December 24, 2015 8:50 PM GMT
Its because someone wants triple pay ... should have declared today.

Its silly really as it defeats the whole purpose of having 48 hrs decs available if you cant use them on days when there is a holiday ...
Report FELTFAIR December 25, 2015 9:38 AM GMT
Must be doubts about the race going ahead given the weather forecast.
Report sageform December 25, 2015 9:57 AM GMT
Still more doubt if they are getting this mornings rain as we are here in Somerset. Steady downpour for 3 hours.
Report TEN2FOLLOWER December 25, 2015 3:00 PM GMT
I've liked Fourovakind for a while, but the weather isn't looking good.
Report FOYLESWAR December 25, 2015 3:28 PM GMT
1.12 not to go ahead on here earlier
Report Facts December 28, 2015 8:24 AM GMT
Must be frustrating /difficult to have brought a horse fit to race on a specific day, only to then have to wait another 2.weeks.
Report sageform December 28, 2015 7:32 PM GMT
Not as difficult with older staying handicappers that do much the same routine every day. Three year old classic colts might be a problem.
Report trev w January 4, 2016 6:32 PM GMT
33 stand... Portrait king 33s of interest.....had a bit of time to get over the Beecher.
Report Flashy January 4, 2016 11:44 PM GMT
Interesting that the last 6 years in which the going has been heavy the winner has carried 10st 9 or less. Narrows the field down substantially, even more so if Black Thunder is pulled out.
Report sageform January 5, 2016 7:52 AM GMT
Bertie Boru and Theatre Guide my 2 at a price. I was relieved to see Theatre Guide still entered after the sad death of his owner. He came from a long way back in the Hennessy and should stay well. Bertie smashed at least 4 fences at Sandown and if any fences are omitted on Saturday his chance will improve. I will probably back Midnight Legend on the day depending on conditions but he is a bit short for an ante post bet..
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 5, 2016 9:53 AM GMT
Will it be onConfused Mischief
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 5, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
13 year old Vic Canvas been scratched from the betfair market in last few minutes
Report nocturnal January 5, 2016 7:20 PM GMT
Indeed Flashy....

Add in the age stats
10/10 aged 8 or below...last 8 runnings
14/14 aged 9 or below

Breeding
13/14 have been FR or IRE bred

Jockeys
No claimer ridden winner 14/14

Just the weight,age and jockey stats may leave a handful at most,early days still re final decs,as mentioned above, not too optimistic we will see this race ran anytime soon if the current weather contines.
Report nocturnal January 5, 2016 7:23 PM GMT
oops!

10/10 aged 8 or below.....last 10 runnings
Report blackbarn January 5, 2016 7:49 PM GMT
Not that it matters much with empirical analysis (stats) but I can clearly see some explanation/apparent logic for both age, breeding and weight, but the claimer stat has me stumped.  Haven't checked the historic incidence of claimers in the race but am pretty sure it is not insignificant - I see that a third of the declared jockeys for Saturday are claimers; Perhaps we are "due one"Wink
Report nocturnal January 5, 2016 8:20 PM GMT
Well spotted BBCool

Not something I was looking for,saw those early jockey decs,thought there would be at least a couple of recent winners ridden by claimers,not so apparently.
As a punter it does beg the question,the claimer and relative inexperience versus a seasoned jockey?
Thats not to say some of the latter appear similar to the former,at times!
Just another nagging doubt for the backers of the well fancied 11 yr old,lightly raced,good claimer booked,topweight,that produces his best form on marshland courses,that will no doubt hack up on saturday, 7/2 fav,to the joy of the masses.

Can I just add its only gone in the notebook in Pencil so farWink
Report sageform January 5, 2016 8:24 PM GMT
Hard to see the winner among the 8yo's-they could all miss the cut. The 2 7yo's are in the same ownership from a yard out of form. That suggests that this could be a 9yo year which brings in Theatre Guide and BertieGrin. I had forgotten how old Midnight Prayer was-he is very lightly raced though due to injuries in the past. Negative stats on older horses are not surprising as most of them are badly handicapped and getting slower at the same time.
Report nocturnal January 5, 2016 8:48 PM GMT
Technically Sage......they were entered at the age of 8,having spoken to former members abroad,aka ex stats pats,their relative chances have been increased somewhat,however....referring to ones own beast as Bertie /programme does not improve stamina or successGrin
Report blackbarn January 5, 2016 9:10 PM GMT
Sage - Upswing is 8 and won't miss the cut, shirley?  May not run with the ground mind!, and there are three 7yo's with Twister's Cogry and I don't think that Ms Curtis is that out of form.  I like Theatre Guide tooWink and Shotgun Paddy.
Report the bloob January 5, 2016 9:23 PM GMT
interesting looking at age stats, please remember that this race was meant to be run on 27th December and all entries have 'aged' 1 year since then!
Report blackbarn January 5, 2016 9:33 PM GMT
If I told you it didn't matter bloob, you'd think me a stats freak, so I wontCrazy.
Report sageform January 6, 2016 7:32 AM GMT
Good point about the year change. I am not wedded to stats myself apart from trainer form. Hobbs and Tizzard doing OK for my 2 choices.
Report Gustavo_1000 January 6, 2016 10:39 AM GMT
Midnight prayer out!!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 6, 2016 11:02 AM GMT
I dunno about anyone else but my heart says get it on for my love of the sport but my pocket is now saying i hope its off

Midnight Prayer
O'faolains Boy
Knockanrawley

First time ive backed so many antepost non runners in a big handicap, Cry lol Crazy
Report festivalfanatic January 6, 2016 11:21 AM GMT
Given Midnight Prayer's history of missing gigs, he is a horse that really should only be backed on raceday, even if it's usually his legs that cause the problems. Alan King will be very concerned that he has coughing in the yard and the very mild weather we have won't help in getting rid of it.
Report blackbarn January 6, 2016 11:33 AM GMT
See Gustavo's post!  MP is a non runner.
Report sageform January 6, 2016 12:01 PM GMT
Sorry if Alan King has problems but it gives me hope for Allee Bleu to beat Travertine who is surely not an odds on shot in heavy going?
Report Facts January 6, 2016 12:36 PM GMT
MP  Cry
Report sageform January 6, 2016 1:18 PM GMT
Allee Bleu was run as a pacemaker for Wait For Me at Newbury and now ridden more sensibly, he could be as good as his stablemate.
Report Can't Catch Me January 6, 2016 1:58 PM GMT
Good shout sage.
Report Facts January 6, 2016 3:53 PM GMT
Yep.
And then Alan King gets a 14/1 winner  !!
Report betilyerded January 6, 2016 4:27 PM GMT
Dont want to be pessimistic as I love this race but cant see it going ahead having seen the forecast.

Should make for a top class Classic Chase the following week at Warwick.
Report Facts January 6, 2016 5:52 PM GMT
I'm with seethestars
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 6, 2016 6:14 PM GMT
Ha ha why thanks facts
Guessing with your comment you have also backed more non runners than you would like? 
Report sageform January 7, 2016 8:58 AM GMT
They are hoping to move the big race time forward but as usual C4 will dictate what happens. Afraid of another Plumpton with rain forecast for the afternoon.
Report lead on January 7, 2016 12:23 PM GMT
It must be close to unraceable if they're even thinking thatSad
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 7, 2016 12:34 PM GMT
The

will racing go ahead

market is pretty interesting right now. Not sure what way it is but either someone has laid all that dosh on 'no' thinking they cleaning up or someone has 'backed' it thinking whoever has laid down the money at the odds are wide step of the mark as nothing has matched as yet on the 'yes' at 1.44 to back 1.81 to lay
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 7, 2016 1:34 PM GMT
With all this guess work as to whether this meeting will get the go ahead with Wincanton now off this increases the chances of it getting the earlier time slot they are asking for at Chepstow.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 7, 2016 4:19 PM GMT
Latest from Chepstow
Chepstow racecourse (@Chepstow_Racing) tweeted: "We remain optimistic that Saturday's Coral Welsh Grand National will go ahead. The track is fit for racing today. Further update tomorrow.

Welsh National moved
In an effort to ensure the Coral Welsh National field run on the best ground possible, the race has been moved forward in the card to 1.45 (from 3.25).
Report dunlaying January 7, 2016 11:06 PM GMT
I have backed Theatre Guide and Rigadin De Beauchene then saved on Return Spring.
Return Spring has one bit of form which , if taken at face value, would make it a snip here. Hardly value but it would be no surprise if it bolted up.
Report saxon farm January 8, 2016 12:16 AM GMT
Venetia indicated at Towcester that Rigadin will be saved for Warwick next Saturday.
Report penzance January 8, 2016 8:48 AM GMT
backed Folsom Blue,60s & 40s,on here.
He an intended rnr still?
cheers.
   GL ALL
Report dunlaying January 8, 2016 9:50 AM GMT
I thought that might be the case Saxon but we live in hope.
Report blackbarn January 8, 2016 11:39 AM GMT
Theatre GuideCry , Folsom Blue and Rigadin all out
Report blackbarn January 8, 2016 11:40 AM GMT
dunlaying - Return Spring in thoughWink
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 8, 2016 11:44 AM GMT
What are stan james playing at?

UPSWING 40/1
EMPERORS CHOICE 50/1
MASTERS HILL 50/1     Crazy

I'd expect anyone taking them prices will get an email shortly afterwards explaining palpable error Shocked
Report sageform January 8, 2016 12:28 PM GMT
Sad but understandable that Theatre Guide doesn't run. I backed him early, then laid off when I heard of the death of the owner but backed again when he was in at the 5 day stage. There could be another reason why he is not running I suppose. At least Bertie Boru and Woodford County, my late replacement, are in.
Report Facts January 8, 2016 12:41 PM GMT
Seathestars

Lol - this happened with Betfred a few months back ( forgot the race) I cheekily availed  myself of the prices. Needless to say received email ( after the race !) that the bets were void.
Report Facts January 8, 2016 12:45 PM GMT
So, in the absence of Midnight Prayer, my hope is that Emporers Choice can stage a repeat of last year.
Report TEN2FOLLOWER January 8, 2016 9:15 PM GMT
Fourovakind.

Liked that one since the weights came out.
Report TheCollector January 9, 2016 1:28 AM GMT
Love Cogry and Upswing for this
Report dunlaying January 9, 2016 10:15 AM GMT
A disaster chez Dunlaying; 3 losers a/p so I added Portrait King @33/1 to my sad looking portfolio.
Report FELTFAIR January 9, 2016 10:40 AM GMT
Backed Mountainous,Firebird Flyer and Tour Des Champs each way five places.
Report the bloob January 9, 2016 11:06 AM GMT
similar for me, backed Firebird Flyer, Tour des Champs and Woodford County
Report buddeliea January 9, 2016 12:57 PM GMT
Got Woodford and Tour as well,and also Welsh Emperor and Bob Ford.
Just small fun bets though!!
Report buddeliea January 9, 2016 12:58 PM GMT
Sorry....Emperors Choice!!
Report penzance January 9, 2016 1:44 PM GMT
on Benvolio,today @30.
   GL ALL
Report the bloob January 9, 2016 1:57 PM GMT
Firebird ran a great race for a 33/1 shot, gutted it didn't get up, only really started closing in the last 50 yards
Report penzance January 9, 2016 1:58 PM GMT
wnrs
   WD
   GL
Report Facts January 9, 2016 3:10 PM GMT
Bloody hell Iris. !!!

Very well done . 3 tipped, = 1st three home !
Triicast. ? Happy
Report IrisDeBalme January 9, 2016 9:04 PM GMT
Yeah gave myself a quiet pat on the back !

but thanks Facts - No didn't do tricast - bit unusual to be that accurate especially in such heavy conditions...

My objective this season is to get all the winners of the Nationals this season (3 selections per race) ... so ticked off one.
Report Facts January 9, 2016 9:41 PM GMT
I like it when you've backed two or three in a race and the race is between them on the run in. You can just shout C'MON without the horse's name as a suffix !
Although I have to say when Rhyme 'n' Reason won the  1988 Grand National , I would have preferred  Durham Edition to win ( lots on at huge odds). He looked to be cruising approaching the last, and took it up from R n R and went 3 lengths clear, then started to tire and R n R got back up near the post. A lot of shouting was done that  afternoon Happy
Report nocturnal January 9, 2016 10:28 PM GMT
VWP IDB / Feltfair.....all winners.

Winner breaks the recent age bias towards the younger brigade,another lightly weighted winner,and nearest claimer 5th!Not quite same as the 27th,not helped by weather either,attritional race.
Report fife January 10, 2016 3:28 PM GMT
Facts I am not being awkward and often back 2 or 3 in a race but you have often posted stating you back a maximum of one horse a day and yet your post above suggests otherwise.
Report Facts January 10, 2016 4:04 PM GMT
Make an exception in the big handicaps like Grand National, if more than one horse making criteria, where I would normally prioritise to get the one bet.
Also, again if qualifiers, will bet in more than one race if both/more  are Class 1 races.
And will bet more than one Class 2 races at ' Festivals ' eg Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, Goodwood..
Report IrisDeBalme January 10, 2016 11:00 PM GMT
To be fair there are so many ponderables to consider when backing a horse in these types of races... especially ante post - you don't want to just have a single bet just in case you need to change strategy based on ground, jockey, or the horse is a non runner. So its a sensible exception really.
Report fife January 11, 2016 11:45 AM GMT
Fair enough Facts I sometimes back up to 6Blush horses in big handicaps especially when there is 5 places and you can get the advertised prices. I will probably end up on the aftertimers thread but my bets and prices on Saturday was Mountainous ew 10s and 11s Firebird Flyer 28s ew Woodford County ew 16s(bonus finishing 5th) Bob Ford 16s win only Emperors Choice 12s ew antepost from the Boxing Day race and Cogry win only at 10s purely to beat the price which is a habit I will have to break in the new year of backing purely to beat the price. Thanks again for explaining your position.
Report Facts January 11, 2016 1:54 PM GMT
No problem Fife.
You may also be interested to know that I don't bet ew.
Report fife January 11, 2016 2:41 PM GMT
I remember you saying that before though when it is a big televised handicap and if the extra places and prices are available I nearly always back ew .When I was younger I always backed win only though now hate watching a horse I might have got 12/1 on going off at say 7/1 and finishing placed and getting nothing back. I suppose it comes down to your betting mentality as win only will probably pay off in the long run if you have the patience to wait for the decent price winnerPlain.
Report Facts January 11, 2016 4:38 PM GMT
I've proved with my rules for selection , that in the long run, win only with a stake, makes more profit than ew.
Because if your stake is £100. You either back £100 win or £50ew.
If you bet ew, any wins, are on at ' half stake ' Yes, there will be places, so profit will be made, but not enough to compensate for the loss of stake on the ones that win.
Report fife January 11, 2016 5:03 PM GMT
I think it comes down to how you deal with losing runs as it took 30 years  for me to stop being a mug punter chasing losses etc and part of the mindset with me is having fewer losing runs even if in the long run it would be more profitable to bet win only.
Report Facts January 11, 2016 8:31 PM GMT
The rule is to set your stakes to a betting bank that will encompass a long losing run. Whatever your historic records ( a must ) highlight the longest losing run , then the Bank should be at least twice that. It's not just the literal number of consecutive losers that influences the bank. It's also the mental approach, a losing run can seriously affect judgement. But hopefully with a big enough 'cushion' losing runs shouldn't be.an issue. If your system of selecting bets has proven to be sound. The winners will come.
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