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betilyerded
20 Nov 15 14:59
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Christmas must be coming cos the entries are out.

Only had chance to have a quick look through and no surprise to see Cogry in as fav but 10-1 - do me a favour! Id take that at the 5 day but not weeks away.

Bookies seem to have it priced right so the only antepost play for me just now is Masters Hill at 20-1 with Vicky C.

Think it still lightly raced enough to have improvement but experienced enough to cope with the race. Has a 3 mile course chase victory under his belt, beat last years subsequent Whitbread winner Just A Par at Exeter last season and thought there was plenty to like about his reappearance run giving 7lb to a decent sort at Carlisle earlier this month, running all the way to the line in heavy ground (would have a 11lb turnaround at Chepstow should Salubrious reoppose - but I dont think he will).
The race was mentioned as a possible target earlier in the season with the only issue being he may have a tilt at the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle which the Tizzards have farmed in recent seasons with Hey Big Spender.
Winning that race used to be a big tick in the box when it was run at Chepstow but since being moved North has had as much bearing on the Welsh National as the Wokingham.

That said, I like to have an early play and with the likes of Rocky Creek or Black Thunder likely to line up he shouldnt have too hefty a burden off his rating of 144 so he's my pick at this stage.

Anyone have anything at a decent price worth looking at?

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Replies: 124
By:
Fabulous
When: 20 Nov 15 15:06
Shortlist of a good few at this stage for me Betil, but I like the look of Benvolio at this early stage, but like a lot of them, Becher Chase entries add to the confusion, so probably no bet immediately for me......have to have a proper look.

GL
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 21 Nov 15 16:39
Think everything will be in favour of KNOCKANRAWLEY after his excellent run at Cheltenham last week. Bit further, heavier ground - looked like it was just what he needed and a 3lb hike shouldn't stop him

Also, RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE ran well for a long way at a meeting where Venetia Williams horses had a quiet time of it.
By:
betilyerded
When: 23 Nov 15 15:18
Looks like my concerns appear to be justified as Masters Hill is entered in the Rehearsal on Saturday having taken the 20's at VC. Should have waited!

Theres a Welsh national Pricewise on Thursday in the RP so should get a few pointers as to what is going to be aimed at it.
By:
GI MAC
When: 23 Nov 15 19:11
I've taken a wee punt on Folsom Blue turning up fit and well, this test in the mud is right up his street. 40/1 could not resist.
By:
knot in wood
When: 24 Nov 15 14:53
bit early and i burnt my fingers last year but could not resist having a little ew on alan kings MIDNIGHT PRAYER,just hope they can keep him sound?

entered at newbury on saturday,so hopefully a nice prep race then the welsh national.
By:
BarryM
When: 26 Nov 15 00:03
This race is perfect for RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE  imho, and he is absolutely thrown in if you look back at his Haydock win last year.
Obviously, he's run a few stinkers, but I thought he raced with a fair bit of enthusiasm at Cheltenham before getting out  paced, and possibly blowing up a bit. I also like that he kept on once passed and was beaten under 15l.

I cannot see how, looking at the calendar, you could aim him at any race other than this. A slog in a bog is what he needs, an Chepstow in Dec delivers that pretty much every year.
Emporers choice is only 4lb higher than when wining last year and won off his current mark LTO so he looks well in, yet he was destroyed by RDB 18 mths ago and is a stone worse off if the weights go up (at least 7lb whatever). RDB  is a bit of a risky proposition but if he turns up in the same mood as Haydock last year he could win like Carvills Hill did.
By:
betilyerded
When: 26 Nov 15 09:06
See where youre coming from Barry and he has undoubtedly become well handicapped so it would be no surprise to see him run well off a lightweight though I cant see him winning. He also went well in last years Midlands national before tiring like he did at Cheltenham.

Wouldnt surprise me to see it run in the 3 1/2 mile chase at haydock mid December (Tim Moloney?) which would be a drop in class at a venue he has gone well in the past.

Have gone and backed Cogry at 12-1 with Laddies as he definitely runs there next. So does Masters Hill after saturdays race according to Tizzard - hope he runs well without winning!

Weights could go up as much as 8lb as it doesnt sound like Nicholls intends running his topweights but has Black Thunder as an intended runner with and most of those below him, bar The Giant Bolster or The Druids Nephew, unlikely to run.
By:
Davy Jones
When: 27 Nov 15 09:29
I missed pricewise tip for this, I think emperors Choice is a decent bet at 14-1 having won on debut, bound to come on for the run as well.
By:
Fabulous
When: 27 Nov 15 09:39
Davy, pricewise went for Return Spring, and 1 other, I'm not 100% about, but think it was Theatrical Star
By:
GI MAC
When: 27 Nov 15 10:07
Pricewise selected Return Spring at 25/1 and Upswing at 14/1
By:
Fabulous
When: 27 Nov 15 10:12
Thanks Mac, had a feeling I was wrong about 2nd one.
By:
Davy Jones
When: 27 Nov 15 14:07
Upswing is interesting but I dont like Return Spring, is the Hobbs horse that beat Upswing at Cheltenham heading for the Welsh National?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 29 Nov 15 18:29
What i would love to know is what the feck has happened to Midnight Prayers price? It seems to have fallen through the invariable floor! Shocked
By:
roobuck
When: 29 Nov 15 20:57
Tipped up on ATR sts
By:
Fabulous
When: 29 Nov 15 22:16
I've finally went for Midnight Prayer @ 33's ew (on the antepost thread) and 32's to 34's on here. Also Rigadin De Beauchene @ 25'sew, and 28's to 34's on here, though after the run of Venetias Houblon Des Obeaux yesterday (I had a good few quid on him), I just wonder if he could emerge as a contender, and The Young Master could easily head here now as well.

I've taken a chance Benvolio heads to Aintree and bet him for The Becher, if he heads here, I'll have to bet him as well Cry
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 01 Dec 15 20:55
pricewise in todays rfo is back thunder ( and wyck hill )
By:
brendrew
When: 16 Dec 15 19:25
portrait king 40/1 e/w
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 19 Dec 15 13:31
All bar two companies have withdrawn my fancy KNOCKANRAWLEY from their markets.

I've not heard anything and last news was the Welsh National was the next target - anyone heard anything?
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 19 Dec 15 13:36
As you were

Just seen online it's out for the season as of last Monday CrySadDevil
By:
Facts
When: 20 Dec 15 09:43
Three shortlisted

Midnight Prayer
Sego Success
Emporers Choice


In that order
By:
KipperRSA
When: 20 Dec 15 11:05
Early days on this and having a closer look at Woodford County, Tour Des Champs, Saroque, Return Spring, Firebird Flyer, Perfect Candidate and Cogry.....plenty to be going with Grin
By:
GI MAC
When: 20 Dec 15 12:27
I'd be wary of backing Sego Success, trainer mentioned the Classic Chase at Warwick as his next race, doesn't think he will handle Chepstow Heavy ground
By:
1st time poster
When: 20 Dec 15 12:31
RIG DE BEAU drifted like a barge before his last run but looked like winning entering the straight,if he strips fitter could be a runner plus mountanious for moi
By:
CVByrne
When: 20 Dec 15 14:06
Backed Return Spring, Benvolio (same mark as when 2nd last year), Cogry and Midnight Prayer. Small bets to start and will reassess when I see the 5 day decs. Woodford County and Tour Des Champs also interesting at the moment.
By:
sageform
When: 20 Dec 15 15:28
Bertie Boru my big price bet so far with Midnight Prayer my other choice.
By:
Beryl
When: 20 Dec 15 19:31
Benvolio is 3 lb higher than last year. His rating has dropped 3 lb since the weights were published.

Last year he ran off 139, this year he will run off 142.

Still like his chance though
By:
CVByrne
When: 20 Dec 15 19:40
Oh I was wondering if they revise the weights based on the actual mark at the 5 day decs. I thought on;y the Grand National was set weighs that didn't change.
By:
Beryl
When: 20 Dec 15 19:46
Sorry, My mistake
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 21 Dec 15 10:45
I haven't really looked at the race yet... so backed initially on course form

Mountaineous 14/1
Shotgun Paddy 14/1


Speculative bets at the moment as some really interesting runners down the handicap, will see what unfolds during the week,
By:
PJay
When: 21 Dec 15 11:57

Dec 21, 2015 -- 5:45AM, IrisDeBalme wrote:


I haven't really looked at the race yet... so backed initially on course formMountaineous 14/1Shotgun Paddy 14/1Speculative bets at the moment as some really interesting runners down the handicap, will see what unfolds during the week,


Hope you don't mind me asking what is your main aim in all these big races Iris? Is it simply to find the winner or is it to make a long term profit?

By:
Facts
When: 21 Dec 15 14:28
Happy with Mountain Call @10/1
By:
Facts
When: 21 Dec 15 14:30
.? . Wtf !

Where did that come from !?


Midnight Prayer ( obviously ) Happy
By:
knot in wood
When: 21 Dec 15 14:38
facts-midnight prayer as legs of glass,was pulled out morning of the race last year.

might be worth waiting for final decs now,you should still get around 8/10s and possibly 5 places.

just saying like.
By:
paulo47
When: 21 Dec 15 15:31
Like Sageform am on Bertie Boru at 50s EW , hope the main man is onboard .
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 21 Dec 15 16:08
HI Pjay - as tough as it is I like to find the winner .. and I only bet with betting money...

tough game horse racing

What about yourself?
By:
PJay
When: 21 Dec 15 16:10
All about long term profit for me Iris
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 21 Dec 15 16:23
Actually I think both have a clear correlation... the frequency of winners determines your long term profit.
By:
PJay
When: 21 Dec 15 16:59
Value determines your long term profit. I only asked because (in my mind at least) it would be tough to find value in 3/4/5 selections per race. But each to their own. Best of luck with them. Still a fair bit to do myself.
By:
the bloob
When: 21 Dec 15 18:46
my 3 at the moment are Woodford County 33/1, Firebird County 25/1, and Tour des Champs 20/1
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