NOVEMBER HANDICAP - FIRST MOHICAN 33/1

Hi IDB, just started looking at this race as had a hefty bet on last years winner but nothing so obvious this time around at first glance and your two were ones I crossed off in my first wave of culling ! Think its going to be a tough one to crack....I was on the King pair in the Cesarewich but dismissed First Mohican here as a 7 year old as this typically goes to younger horses with no winner older than 6. Fahey's record in this put me off your other pick with his bet place being 8th from 13 tries. With all that in mind though I have no idea who I fancy !

Agree with OP. First Mohican is good value at 33s. Also backed him in Ces (luckily Grumeti too). Thought he travelled really well and not given a hard time. Obviously a prep for this. Ran well for a long way in Nov h'cp last year before seeming not to get home in very tiring heavy ground. Don't think the ground will be nearly as soft on Sat.

I also spotted First Mohican travel like a dream for 1m7f of the Cesarewitch before being allowed to come home in his own time. Was hoping nobody else would fancy him and I'd get 66/1-100/1 on here on the day of the November H'Cap.

Always good to have one last chance to lose some money on the flat before the jumps kicks in and i usually manage to achieve it.

Cant have First Mohican at all - a 7yo has never won the race and only 3 6 yo have won in almost 30 years and even Conduct (2013) had only had a handful of career starts so I think its safe to concentrate on 3-5 yo's. In addition, a horse rated higher than 99 has never won the race either.

At the other end of the scale you have to go back to 2003 for the last winner to be rated below 90, which is a shame as that does put me off your other fancy, for win purposes at least, in Latenightrequest. Thers no doubt in my mind that she has been laid out for the race and as you say, her win in the 12f handicap prior to the November handicap worked out well with both Open Eagle and Dashing Star finishing 1st and 3rd in the race. Noticed some of the 25's has been hoovered up this morning.

Another downside to her chances is that only horses who finished in the top 5 of previous November handicaps have returned and won the race (Open Eagle,Tropical Strait and Group Captain were 3rd 4th & 5th). Admittedly it was bad ground last year but its already soft and there is more rain forecast this week.Thats also detrimental to the chances of Esteaming and Manhattan Swing who both have chances of sorts but were beaten out of sight last year.

Seamour is fancied by some but Id rather concentrate on a horse thats been campaigned around 10-14f and not the 2 mile that he has been (no previous winner had even ran over that distance, never mind won at it).

What wins though? I was quite tempted by Mistiroc who has a similar profile to the stables Hillview Boy and has taken the same route but I dont think the ground will suit. Argus looks solid but Beckett voiced concerns about running the horse back quickly after its C&D win lto as the horse has had problems so it may be prudent to wait until the decs to see if he turns up. He was certainly well backed last time so a 3lb rise hardly seems punitive.

In the meantime, time to have another look!!

Looks like field sizes have been cut at yet another big meeting. 18 appears to be the max for all races on saturday which all but snookers Latenightrequests chances of getting a run as quite a lot of the field have already been jocked up.

Why are they doing this?

WONDER whats won the handicap at redcar today,

betilyerded...that is the field size limit (18) all safety factors on this day are 22, apart from the November on 23 and the Gillies Fillies on 18 (although I think that should be 19).  Those 18s will only come in to play if every race has 18 decs in it as that is the amount of stables Doncaster has.  (One horse, one box).

fwiw I like Only Orsenfoolsies, who earned the form book comment "Chased leaders, effort over 2f out, soon outpaced, kept on final furlong" last time behind the fav, Argus.  I don't think that tells anywhere near the whole story.  Far from being outpaced he was trapped and couldn't get out. He picked up well when he did see daylight to be beaten one and a quarter lengths by Argus, who now meets on 3lb worse terms.  It was a very eye-catching run from a very likeable, genuine horse.  This can be quite a test for a 12f H'cap and old Orsen (25/1 best) should love it.  He'll cope with any worsening of conditions too.

I should mention at this juncture that I always fancy Only Orsenfoolsies.  Cheers.

Litigant must have a strong chance despite top weight. Ascot race went entirely wrong for him - no pace, had to race wide... Also have to respect Luca's Penhill. Both will love the soft ground. Super Kid to complete my 4 e/w AP. Always respect Godolphin in these top staying handicaps.

Can't see past Argus at the moment. But as there are doubts about his participation, I'm holding off backing him.

The Headmaster. Thanks for explaining that. I can be a bit stupid at times - guess thats how you got your moniker!!

Think there were a few eyecatching runs in Argus' race lto. Probably down to the slow early pace and everyone trying to quicken at the same time. Still think the winner will come out on top again of those he beat.

Have to be honest not happy with Tom Queally being jocked on First Mohican ... that booking lacks ambition really... I would have probably gone for a claimer.. taking some vital pounds off his back... or Adam Beschizza

As for his age Bertyl, don't think that's a factor as much with this horse as he has not that highly tried... and has had max 5/6 runs a season... so not too concerned on that.

Zand was due to be my main bet here. Checked the price very early this morning and it was 25/1 most places and now has shortened to 16/1. Missed out on the price now! Anyone know what happened, was it tipped up somewhere?

Paul Keally - Weekender tipped him (Zand), along with Storm Force Ten

Johnston horses are tough to guess right especially with indifferent form like Zand... he could easily win a race like this or come last... depends on which horse turns up. This is a proper leap of faith horse.

Zand was an obvious bet for me. The horse has been with Johnston only for the last 4 or 5 months and since finishing near last at Goodwood in July I've said that I think this horse was being prepped for a big run at the end of the year when it will get its ground. Prior to being with Johnston the horse had some great form in France on soft ground. Reached a mark as high as 102 and would be running here in the low 90's.

It's still had a couple of decent runs under Johnston, a 5th and a 3rd so its not a horse that has completely gone despite some of its form maybe suggesting that. Last race 10 days ago it finished out back which I'm putting down as a typical Johnston prep run. Change up the feed and I'm expecting a big run from this horse on Saturday. Just another point of interest. The horse is owned by the same owner as Oriental Fox and given what happened in Cesarewitch they definitely owe the owner a big winner!

Thank you though for the info Iris.

Thanks Dibdob - you make a convincing argument.

I have now backed ZAND at 16s on the basis of your leap of faith...

I think Oriental Fox analogy is a very good one... that horse was primed, and money went in like an avalanche... I didn't see that coming at all - but people knew... shocked when he went to favouritism ... just touched off... that would have been the gamble of the season

With this handicap - Zand is his only runner... Fanning on board - yeah on softer ground could be another hit for the bookies.

I'm on at 16s. Not that soft though. Need rain. Weather forecast rain rain rain. Oi Oi.

it can't be any better than soft with the forecast, could easily be heavy by Saturday. The drainage at Doncaster is amazing but no way it can recover from what's coming

remember 80% field walking home in this last year, first mohican was unconscios turning in

ground looks to be similar

having a few quid on seamour ew will wait to sat morning thou

Think Handiwork is very well in here off 8-0 4th in the Scottich champion hurdle and a very tende 3rd last time out
will like the soft going a very interesting dark horse for this 25/1 currently

Blue Hussar should be considered. Hammond has given him plenty of time and the horse is , potentially , dropped in. Said by at least one journalist to be unreliable yet the only time this season that he has been seriously supported he won by four lengths. Should go on the ground , will get the trip , acts on the course and has a competent rider. Buonarroti is also a plausible selection. For the million to one shot Shrewd.

Dun - you might be on to something with Buonarroti.
Presume it is Hayley Turner's last ride aswell.

Going to be seriously heavy going just like last year so have gone off First Mohican because of that.

3 year olds have won lots of the Heritage type handicaps this season, and I expect another one to oblige in this, the last big flat handicap of the turf season.
The progressive ARGUS trained by an inform handler and ridden by top jockey off a very nice weight,  has to go very close on Saturday. Has won over the CD and twice on soft going.

Facts would also like Argus but Oisin is having a confidence crises currently his rides this week would bear that out.

Last 7 days, 31 rides = 8 wins and 7 seconds ( c50%). What crisis ?

just look at the ride he gave Azour Amore last night not for me currently

Wet and miserable and overcast but nothing significant certainly not bucket loads wet stuff. Oh and cold.

Cant see past Argus now TBH so will back him when they push him out to 7's on saturday morning.

Hoping for a bit of 16's about Mistiroc for an e/w punt. O'Mearas animal worries me but he's had lots of tries at 12f and failed so cant see why saturday should be any different.

Good luck everyone - gonna be a slog!!

really trick race riddled with if buts and maybe's...the two that head the betting are tricky and if i were a bookmaker i'd be keen to get them but it isn't easy with so many that don't inspire in regards wagering

pace may come from litigant and he can't be discounted after a rough trip last time, he stays further so if he is taken to the lead this could end up a war of attrition...storm force ten likes to be up there, buonaroti only win came when making it and he is a hard horse to judge with the handbrake in so frequent use, his is on a very winnable mark so maybe the fairy story isn't out of the question, although he does look the one pace to me and i didn't think he was finding much last time admittedly in a slowly run affair, some headgear may have inspired me...giantstepsahead looks the only other pace angle, with the rest likely to stalk or are deep closers

not wagered yet as it really is taking time to get through it all

Bit annoyed Latenightrequest didn't make the cut - got my money back...

Thought id be shrewd with the money - and backed SHREWD at 33s, underrated trainer I Jardine... who has already won a big race this season catches the eye.

Very open race this year but will side with Off Art running very well and has dropped down the weights on current weight has beating of awake my soul and Mistrioc with Allan on board he'll do for me 25/1 currently

Heart ruling head but Mistiroc for me...worry about the distance in the ground but on breeding he really should improve with a stamina test..hurdlers among his siblings..stable's Jack Dexter should have everything in his favour earlier.

Looking like Argus a non-runner. Been taken off lists and betting suspended on here.
Thank christ i didnt back him before decs.

Toss up between Mistiroc and Seamoor now as I think its going to be a war of attrition.

Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 3,828 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
really trick race riddled with if buts and maybe's...the two that head the betting are tricky and if i were a bookmaker i'd be keen to get them but it isn't easy with so many that don't inspire in regards wagering

pace may come from litigant and he can't be discounted after a rough trip last time, he stays further so if he is taken to the lead this could end up a war of attrition...storm force ten likes to be up there, buonaroti only win came when making it and he is a hard horse to judge with the handbrake in so frequent use, his is on a very winnable mark so maybe the fairy story isn't out of the question, although he does look the one pace to me and i didn't think he was finding much last time admittedly in a slowly run affair, some headgear may have inspired me...giantstepsahead looks the only other pace angle, with the rest likely to stalk or are deep closers

What about only orsenfoolsies Harry ?

Argus. .  Backed it yesterday afternoon.( after 48 hr decs)  NRNB ?

yep

really disappointing that.. thought he was unlikely given the ground ... but deduction is annoying... and prices shortened...

Disappointed too as the the price of my main selection Zand is no way near what I was hoping it would be about a few days ago. Hoped to get it somewhere in the 20's. Might have to half my stakes with another I fancy.

Only Orsenfoolsies (25/1 at corals right now) tracked Argus all the way last time at Doncaster and lost nothing in the finish, ending up a close forth. That piece of form alone makes it a good bet for me at the price. Hasn't gone up in weight either for that run and add a 7lb claimer on board tomorrow and the argument gets even more convincing.

Drawn in stall 14 which shouldn't be an issue and the soft ground and distance gives me even more confidence. When the horse has run on going with at least soft in the description and a minimum distance of 11 furlongs the form reads 41214. No concern either should the going be heavy as it has placed form on that type of ground as well as winning hurdles form.

It maybe more of an in running bet though, as it's 4 wins over flats have been when it has made all the running. Worth keeping an eye on as it looks a really good bet.

He doesn't need to front turn so don't let that put you off in-running.  I wouldn't want him too actually.  A handy sit 3rd, 4th or 5th, wide, will do very nicely.

'to'

20 odd runs over flats and its never won when it hasn't made all. I'd be much happier to see it up there

I see you backed it too. I think me seeing you mention it a few days ago made it stick in my head and have a closer look at it today. If it wins then I got you to thank. Good luck!

gutted the seamour price is gone, was hoping for 10/1 5 places sat morning, will do deffo go off fav

if he can travel early think he turn it in a pocession

Best of luck, dibdob.  Orsen must be one of the only horses in training who doesn't owe me.  Luv him.  For clarity, I won't him up there too....just not sure makign all is the way to go.

FORUM CALLING ORSEN....FORUM CALLING ORSEN....COME ON ORSEN!!!!

"won't" = "want"

agree dyno layer he could be up there...thx for contributing to the thread

quite like the balding horse here, seems to fit a lot of the trends.

Not keen on the race and will only back one horse,Cousin Khee each way. Will be mildy annoyed if Manhattan Swing or Barwick make the frame.

Interesting runner giantstepsahead right at bottom of weights got a good draw and a top lightweight jockey on board looking at form won on soft with 9st 13lb on back at newmarket although in lot lesser race only negative not run for some but worth a each way punt at 33-1

Whats interesting about this race more than any other handicap run on the flat this summer is that i think everyone that has contributed to this thread has put up a different horse with a reason to back it!

it does look a total minefield, I could back about 8 of them, has anyone mentioned Manhattan Swing yet? I give it a sneak at 33/1

yeah I think the ground makes it an imponderable with the added fact most of the horses have a bad run to their name but are very capable on the day...

Having said that, I think the 'real' market will unfold before the race and I'm sure something will get gambled on... and maybe bring some clear water to the proceedings?

I have the bloob on my thread

Seamour  will relish the going and has class to go with his stamina. Has the ability to take this.

GROUP runners don't normally win this race, and it's had quite a break

Yep. It's got no chance. Rumour has it Pricewise has tipped it up. Ffs

Woohoo - Litigant - gtfi. Biggest winner of Flat seaon for me, in the last big race of the season. Amazing price. Couldn't believe he was trading on BF over 20. You start to wonder if his leg has fallen off but had to go in again

Litigant wins
Only second Top weight to win since 1998 ( Yavanna's Pace)
Also the first 7yo to win since ?? my records go back 34 years

Well done Johnny. Saw the money coming in for Litigant, but didnt follow. Had no clue how it would handle the ground.

Callum Shepherd riding 3lbs overweight cost me some decent place money, not happy!

Very well done Johnny !  Litigant proved - that on his day, given the right conditions - he's a class act. And a shed load of money for him near the off too !

Thanks chaps. Been a tough old Flat season in the main but came good for me in the autumn having backed Grumeti in Ces, Energia Davos in Darley Stakes and Litigant today.

won with a bit in and group1 horse well done Johnny hard one to pick

yeah well done winners ... what a decent horse litigant is...

2nd and 3rd(ew) for me didnt cover my stakes though

Fantastic call on Litigant. Couldn't have backed it with borrowed money, just didn't fancy it at all.
Won a few quid with Mistiroc so not complaining and Withernsea did me a big favour. Feel quite sad the flat season is over
Roll on March

dreadful run from seamour, gather he was stuck in the mud there

usually not G. Lee's greatest fan but thought he rode a cracking race for a place

Well done winners, can't believe i didn't have even a shilling on him after backing (mistakenly admittedly) TWICE at 40s in the ebor closest my lot came to was 2nd 4th and 5th but cost me a small fortune.

I agree Iris, shame Latenightrequest didn't get in. The way it ran in the listed fillies race, where it 12lb worse off with the winner than it would have been in a handicap, it would surely have gone close over 2 furlongs further in the handicap. Like you, I got my money back

excellent performance by Litigant to win like that giving so much weight. Going to be an interesting runner in the 1m 4f to 2m Group races next season, especially when the ground comes up Soft