Betfair Chase

At the head of the market I think Don Cossack (who will win) and silviniaco Conti will both be heading for this, going by last year conti improves massively for a run so I expect this will put him spot on for his King George defence.......... Not much point in lumping on the don at 5/2 though so looking further down if the ground remains good Holywell could go well at 16/1 I feel there is a big race still in him on good ground.
I suppose dynaste could  be aimed at this and if the hurdle race in France has blown the cobwebs away could be a decent each way poke at 20/1.
And lastly if it turns soft and the field cuts up maybe sam winner may head for this 33/1.
Think I will have to hold until I know a bit more about the ground

Barnesey, ground for the last 3 years at least has been soft and at Haydock doubt at the very least it will be better than g/s, so for that reason I would look away from Holywell.  However Dynaste has been placed in this for the last 2 years and the plan is the Charlie Hall and then this.  With doubts about many of the runners 20/1 EW I think is a great price.  Yes, it is hard to see him beating Silvianaco Conti if he is wound up for this but not impossible and also Don Cossack, but will he come?  Could easily end up less than 8 runners also and therefore an EW play now first 3 places for an intended runner seems worthwhile at 20/1.  I'm in.

Is he definitely going to Wetherby first?

Not sure where I read it Sint, but the Charlie Hall or the Down Royal race were said to be his next target followed by the Betfair, King George and ultimately the Ryanair. I thought they gave preferance to the Charlie Hall but may be wrong.  Entries are out on Monday.

Gordon Elliot on The Morning Line says Don Cossack goes for JNwine Chase at Down Royal then afterwards either the Lexus or more likely the King George.  So sounds like this race is off the Agenda.

Shame that Don Cossack doesn't look like going for the betfair he looks tailor made for it an I can remember mccoys interview after he won on him at the grand national meeting and he thought this would be a serious horse over 3 miles and that's saying a lot. Does also look like it will be a small field in the betfair so a very left field one at a price would be al ferof (25) on soft ground, now with Dan Skelton they could go for this instead of his usual introduction at ascot in the amlin considering that looks the likely starting point for some unknown horse called vautour....

silviniaco conti having a prep over hurdles at kempton monday.

surprised w mullins didn't make a single entry for the race, got all these top 3 mile chasers and not going to have any races for them to run in.

He is aiming to have the first 6 in the Gold Cup and doesn't want to over race them.

Race comes too early for WM. Not running many horses yet as ground has not been suitable.

If Boxing Day is too early, that only gives him 10 weeks to Cheltenham and about 15 to Punchestown which is effectively the end of the season for the Grade 1 horses.

soft ground already at haydock, heavy rain forecast every day, coc of course has said he expecting 40mils this week after last weeks 40

could see SC going off odds on just took some 13/8, cant have cue card on heavy, would have expected him to be hard to peg back on GS.

The don, and coneygree not turning up, dynaste and ballyganour, pipes horses just not finishing off

cant see a danger right now

I'm not keen on backing horses much less than 4/1 as there's not much return. But Conti on Soft or Heavy ground at a track he likes when you know Nicholls is aiming him at this and the King George this season. 7/4 has him as a 36% chance of winning when surely he's an odds on shot.

backed CUE CARD 4/1 and DYNASTE 10/1
Will make up my mind later in the week

Nicholls post race interview today after old guard's win was very bullish about Conti, he says he is back. Good enough for me

Rain due this week so Conti should get his soft ground. Agree with those above; he's surely an odds on chance.

The interesting one outside the big two is O'Faolain's Boy.

I'm not worried about the absence and both his form and his pedigree suggest he'll relish the ground - the drawback is the stable form, RTF at 25% and Vintage Vinnie and Audacious Plan ran shockers at the Open Meeting, Irish Cavalier did n't seem to finish out his race either after travelling into contention really well though you could arguably upgrade his effort and that of her bumper horse on the back of the lack of stable form.

Agree with the consensus on Conti (his prep run over hurdles was not too shabby either) - going was soft though (Going Stick = 5.2) when Cue Card won 2 years ago though I accept Conti was underdone for that and PFN adjusted his prep accordingly last year (can't find going stick readings for last year or now - even if you're sceptical about going stick data, it would help if it was consistently ready available for comparison purposes!). Also recall Tizzard claiming in the past that the softer ground blunts Cue Card's exuberant jumping but that was before the trapped epiglotis was discovered so thoughts on him depend on the extend to which you believe the breathing problem has been hampering him and whether he can maintain his progress from Wetherby.

So after all that, prices look about right to me unless I see evidence from Curtis stable before the weekend which persuades me to have a speculator on OFB.

^ also 2013 renewal was on flat course allegedly over 3m 1f though I seem to recall there were question makrs over whether they'd short measured the distance. Was it on flat course last year? 3m 24y this year so presumably back on chase course?

also reading quotes from RC earlier this month that OFB more likely to go to Ascot on Sat over 2m 5f - s'pose shorter trip and less gruelling conditions might make more sense after his absence - there was talk of Vautour going for the Ascot race at some point though.

Will stop rambling now and hold fire.

This could cut up to 4 or 5 runners.

Anything over Evens on Conti will be an absolute steal come Saturday afternoon.

Bet of the year so far!

Anything on Conti right now, that should read!

I expect it to be around 8/13 - 4/7 on Saturday!

Jump aboard the Conti train!! :)

Silviniaco Conti has to be a strong favourite now and all known form points to this fact.  Best price now 11/10 and that really looks pretty fair.

I still think I called it right though with my post above on 22/10 (above) and very happy to take my chance on Dynaste EW 3 places at 20/1.  Would be nice if Pipe had a few winners this week.

Cue Card had a wind op and is not going to enjoy the dour stamina test Conti will be forcing here in probably heavy ground. Pipe is in dire form and so neither of his can be considered. Holywell will hate the ground too and isn't at the same talent level as Conti anyway. Menorah is the only danger and he would prefer better ground too, but he did run Conti to 2l in bad ground last year. O'Faolains Boy will run at Ascot.

So back Conti and Menroah e/w with SJs 3 places.

CV I think Hobbs has said menorah won't run if it's heavy....... That's what they said on ATR earlier

Ah ok Cheers. I'm not betting in this as not a short priced backer re: Conti. But still trying to work through the race none the less.

Ground will be heavy though so Menorah won't be running. This is a penalty kick for Conti tbh

CV, not sure why you say Holywell is not at the level of conti?
Certainly did not look that way last March beating Conti by a fair way on unfavoured ground.he was one of only 3 horses that could get anywhere near Coneygree.
Doubt he will run on heavy ground Saturday anyway, but unfair on the horse to say he's not at that level imo.

Looking at the race it could end up a walkover!!...if it's on.

Yes be surprised if Holywell runs (considering he is a spring horse - they would prefer anything but heavy ) - wont have his conditions to suit, so you could cross him off your list...

Hopefully there will be at least 4 runners - both the Pipe horses, Conti and Cue Card - otherwise it looks a bit embarrassing for both the sponsors and the Jockey Club (as sponsors of the £1m bonus).

The more I think about it, the more I hope Rebecca Curtis opts for this instead of Ascot for OFB - I don't think it will happen because she's probably concerned about him having a hard race on bad ground after such a long absence but I really believe he'd have a better chance of winning this than beating Vautour.

His form on Heavy is 111P (scoped dirty after the P).

Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card, Holywell, Dynaste and Ballynagour the five confirmed for the Betfair Chase.

Backing Holywell each way.

surely cue card is the value here?

conti limitations exposed.

cue card brilliant there.

Greta to see Cue Card win - and I do like Paddt Brennan.

Fron a King George point of view Noel Fehily was on the radio this morning and was concerned that the prep run over hurdles might not have been enough to get Conti right on his 'A' game. He jumped as well as ever and back at Kempton with headgear on he looks value at 14/1 e/w.

My thoughts exactly Uncle. Thought Paul Nicholls was very worried on the morning line and was at pains to say he would have preferred another 2 weeks to get him spot.
Funnily enough Cue card beat Silvi in the same manner at haydock two years back but couldnt repeat it at Kempton. Silvi beat him last year AND at Kempton to make it 2-0 in the King George.
Theres also talk of blinkers going on for Kempton.

14-1 was insulting for a dual winner cos you know he will be there (bar accidents) and a knocking e/w bet in my humble opinion.

Is it possible that when Conti beat CC at Kempton it was owing to the now rectified breathing problem? CC looked set to win by half the track ,when it suddenly emptied. If that was the case then it is difficult to see  CC being beaten by Conti in any re-match.

Trying to tell me its took them 2 years to discover he had a breathing problem? It was fine the month before when he won impressively at Haydock.
Im not buying that but regardless, 12-1 about a dual winner of the race is too big.

Might have been fine before, but certainly wasn't right during or  after its King George second. Lacklustre since the op...now apparently rejuvenated.  Conti's price is value...agreed...but the race will hinge on whether the Irish arrive, and if they act on the track. Cue Card  will do for me.