Betfair Chase

At the head of the market I think Don Cossack (who will win) and silviniaco Conti will both be heading for this, going by last year conti improves massively for a run so I expect this will put him spot on for his King George defence.......... Not much point in lumping on the don at 5/2 though so looking further down if the ground remains good Holywell could go well at 16/1 I feel there is a big race still in him on good ground.
I suppose dynaste could  be aimed at this and if the hurdle race in France has blown the cobwebs away could be a decent each way poke at 20/1.
And lastly if it turns soft and the field cuts up maybe sam winner may head for this 33/1.
Think I will have to hold until I know a bit more about the ground

Is he definitely going to Wetherby first?

Gordon Elliot on The Morning Line says Don Cossack goes for JNwine Chase at Down Royal then afterwards either the Lexus or more likely the King George.  So sounds like this race is off the Agenda.

silviniaco conti having a prep over hurdles at kempton monday.

He is aiming to have the first 6 in the Gold Cup and doesn't want to over race them.

If Boxing Day is too early, that only gives him 10 weeks to Cheltenham and about 15 to Punchestown which is effectively the end of the season for the Grade 1 horses.

I'm not keen on backing horses much less than 4/1 as there's not much return. But Conti on Soft or Heavy ground at a track he likes when you know Nicholls is aiming him at this and the King George this season. 7/4 has him as a 36% chance of winning when surely he's an odds on shot.

Nicholls post race interview today after old guard's win was very bullish about Conti, he says he is back. Good enough for me

The interesting one outside the big two is O'Faolain's Boy.

I'm not worried about the absence and both his form and his pedigree suggest he'll relish the ground - the drawback is the stable form, RTF at 25% and Vintage Vinnie and Audacious Plan ran shockers at the Open Meeting, Irish Cavalier did n't seem to finish out his race either after travelling into contention really well though you could arguably upgrade his effort and that of her bumper horse on the back of the lack of stable form.

Agree with the consensus on Conti (his prep run over hurdles was not too shabby either) - going was soft though (Going Stick = 5.2) when Cue Card won 2 years ago though I accept Conti was underdone for that and PFN adjusted his prep accordingly last year (can't find going stick readings for last year or now - even if you're sceptical about going stick data, it would help if it was consistently ready available for comparison purposes!). Also recall Tizzard claiming in the past that the softer ground blunts Cue Card's exuberant jumping but that was before the trapped epiglotis was discovered so thoughts on him depend on the extend to which you believe the breathing problem has been hampering him and whether he can maintain his progress from Wetherby.

So after all that, prices look about right to me unless I see evidence from Curtis stable before the weekend which persuades me to have a speculator on OFB.

also reading quotes from RC earlier this month that OFB more likely to go to Ascot on Sat over 2m 5f - s'pose shorter trip and less gruelling conditions might make more sense after his absence - there was talk of Vautour going for the Ascot race at some point though.

Will stop rambling now and hold fire.

Anything on Conti right now, that should read!

I expect it to be around 8/13 - 4/7 on Saturday!

Jump aboard the Conti train!! :)

Cue Card had a wind op and is not going to enjoy the dour stamina test Conti will be forcing here in probably heavy ground. Pipe is in dire form and so neither of his can be considered. Holywell will hate the ground too and isn't at the same talent level as Conti anyway. Menorah is the only danger and he would prefer better ground too, but he did run Conti to 2l in bad ground last year. O'Faolains Boy will run at Ascot.

So back Conti and Menroah e/w with SJs 3 places.

Ah ok Cheers. I'm not betting in this as not a short priced backer re: Conti. But still trying to work through the race none the less.

CV, not sure why you say Holywell is not at the level of conti?
Certainly did not look that way last March beating Conti by a fair way on unfavoured ground.he was one of only 3 horses that could get anywhere near Coneygree.
Doubt he will run on heavy ground Saturday anyway, but unfair on the horse to say he's not at that level imo.

Yes be surprised if Holywell runs (considering he is a spring horse - they would prefer anything but heavy ) - wont have his conditions to suit, so you could cross him off your list...

Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card, Holywell, Dynaste and Ballynagour the five confirmed for the Betfair Chase.

surely cue card is the value here?

Greta to see Cue Card win - and I do like Paddt Brennan.

Fron a King George point of view Noel Fehily was on the radio this morning and was concerned that the prep run over hurdles might not have been enough to get Conti right on his 'A' game. He jumped as well as ever and back at Kempton with headgear on he looks value at 14/1 e/w.

Is it possible that when Conti beat CC at Kempton it was owing to the now rectified breathing problem? CC looked set to win by half the track ,when it suddenly emptied. If that was the case then it is difficult to see  CC being beaten by Conti in any re-match.

Might have been fine before, but certainly wasn't right during or  after its King George second. Lacklustre since the op...now apparently rejuvenated.  Conti's price is value...agreed...but the race will hinge on whether the Irish arrive, and if they act on the track. Cue Card  will do for me.