foundation racing post trophy

Looking at Johannes Vermeer or Shogun until declarations are available.Not a great renewal in my opinion.

Agree with the OP. Managed to get on at 5/4 earlier. Already odds on in places!! The Ballydoyle runners seem noticeably weak, and I would only really be concerned about Johannes Vermeer if he turned up. Pretty weak renewal and the fav looks a good thing.

Could be very few runners so I guess that is why his price has collapsed - though I wasn't exactly blown away by him at New'Mkt.

Also fair amount of rain forecast on Saturday which would make Mengis Khan interesting. Probably won't run but there has been a bit of market support today so I have had a small bet at 12/1 just in case.

^Mengli Khan

Why won't it run?

Yes I think this Mengli Khan might be the main danger. Not much confidence behind O'Briens, actually I would prefer Black Sea to Deauville but none of his seem particularly fancied.

watching a video of foundation's royal lodge win earlier, I must admit it didn't exactly blow me away either. Didn't think it would be odds on already, objectively speaking that's too short.

Now having a rethink

All in on Mengli Khan

agree not blown away with the fav worth taking on, think the punts more due to the second in cant reverse the form at the least hard to see.

had a few quid mengli khan 12/1 ew with the 3 places with hills earlier

Really liked him at nottingham looks a strong stayer, more rain the better his chance

The reason I had doubts about Mengli Khan turning up is that Hugo Palmer said he probably wouldn't run again this season after he won his maiden.
However the fact they left him at the 5 day stage suggest they want to at least look at the make up of the race and with it cutting up badly and the ground going in his favour they would be mad not to run imo - even 3rd place would be worth more than a Group 3.

Very wet today so with more rain forecast on Saturday I've gone in with a decent chunk e/w @ 12/1 3 places.

Weather forecast has changed and now it looks as if there might not be anymore rain from now to off time.

I doubt he needs soft though- surely he ran ok in his maiden when the ground was riding ok?

I'll be surprised if he doesn't run.

Surely we are only going to get a maximum of 7 runners here. AOB must withdraw 3/5 of to leave 2 in which would take us down to 7 runners, nothing looks likely to get supplemented. I could see it being even less

None of the AOB runners give me any confidence they are running so along similar lines to some on here I have backed Tony Curtis, could be a small field and liked the place make up of the race apart from Foundation. I am not really expecting him to win but with a small field could steal a few pounds e/w

Aidan O'Brien on his Racing Post Trophy plans: "It looks as if we will have three runners with Port Douglas, who won the Beresford Stakes, joining Deauville and Johannes Vermeer. We'll sort out jockey plans in the morning." 40 mins ago

Stronger line up than I anticipated and the going not as soft as I hoped so while I have 3 places instead of 2 I doubt the 12/1 on Mengli Khan is any better than will be available on the day.

Should be soft enough ground for horses that prefer it,won't dry out by saturdat this time of year,be amazed if mengli khan doesn't shorten I reckon its an even money shot segal or taylor will pick it as the little bit of value in the race..

interesting that O'brien is going for the rematch with Deauville.

I must admit that he did travel rather green in that Royal Lodge, despite it being his third run and he was closing at the line.

deighted to see rain forecast for saturday morning now

^Yep.

thegiggilo
thegiggilo 22 Oct 15 13:27 Joined: 04 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 6,385 | Blogger: thegiggilo's blog
Should be soft enough ground for horses that prefer it,won't dry out by saturdat this time of year,be amazed if mengli khan doesn't shorten I reckon its an even money shot segal or taylor will pick it as the little bit of value in the race..

you must have a crystal ball, as he has a positive mention for this one and Tony Curtis in his weekender column

really looking forward to this, Foundation deservedly the favourite, without a doubt he's earned that right but I'm starting to edge away from him and towards Deauville, not much to find on the formbook and already won on heavy ground so with rain forecast and a staying pedigree he might just grind the others into submission.

Gosden today expressed his concerns about too much rain blunting the favourites turn of foot. If too much runs tomorrow I feel he may pull the jolly out.

Not a race that interests me with just seven runners but I would not dismiss the chances of Marcel. Pete Chapple-Hyam does know a good horse when he gets one. 66/1 in places. Remember he sent Authorized for this race with very little form in the book to recommend it.

Johannes Vermeer each way for me.

Really hope Gosden doesn't pull Foundation out.

^ I hope Foundation and Deauville get pulled out - the less runners the better for my ante post bet.

Pricewise has picked Mengli Khan which is a worry.

Need the rain to hit soon for the above to happen

The antics of Gosden and O'Brien over the state of the ground have really blighted this flat season.

Strange betting last night mengli khan was 7/1 now pricewise has picked it drifting like a barge...

I've laid Foundation to be in the first three.
A bit of rain will make it a lottery.

thegiggilo
thegiggilo 24 Oct 15 12:29 Joined: 04 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 6,389 | Blogger: thegiggilo's blog
Strange betting last night mengli khan was 7/1 now pricewise has picked it drifting like a barge...
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Pricewise backers often get on early presumably the reason for it being clipped last night

Was only 8/1 yesterday afternoon,lookeed like shortening into 6s after seagull had picked it very odd,dooesn't make any sense why the drift on the day been backed all week..

I do hope that after this race we don't get the same nonsense as last year.When Elm Park waited in front and wound it up from the front off a slow pace,and pundits it the papers et al,described it as an "Impressive performance".
Impressive, is Sea Bird winning the Derby,Mill Reef walking around Tattenham corner,or hacking up in the Greenham.Or Minnehoma being taken on up front in the Sun Alliance,and when all others with him drop away exhausted,he gets headed by Bradbury Star and goes a length or two down.Yet has enough in the tank, to go back past again and win the race.
I sometimes wonder who are layers in some of the exchanges of view when i read, or hear, pundits on telly.A lot of it borders on incompetence.Like some commentators who tell you that they are going a fast pace in a race,when horses behind are all taking a pull!!.
We can only hope that things improve.

Hardly any rain - that's why Mengii has been weak and the faviurites strong.

I'd like to lay off my Mengli bet but the site is down.

The grounds desperate at Donny even the class 2 sprint was slow by 3.3 seconds,no horse would need anymore rain there.

Mengli Khan looks great in his coat- got a feeling now he might pull off an upset.

amazing call dunlaying

ghengis khan ran a stinker, deauville just wasn't very good

Fantastic call dunlaying.

Not Frankie's finest hour

Thank God the exchange came back in time for me to layoff - desperate effort from Mengli.

Real pleased  for PCH - hope the horse goes on next year.

Anybody know why RP is contested over the straight mile and not on the round course as Phil Bull intended when he sponsored it ?