Horse Antepost

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07 Oct 15 14:59
Date Joined: 16 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 87 | Blogger: Frankelampard's blog
Some cracking names in the antepost list, Saphir Du Rheu, Coneygree, Many Clouds, Djakadam, Don Cossack, Southfield Theatre, Holywell and the list goes on. Obviously they won't all turn up but it seems little doubt that we're due a quality field.

Of those lot I think SAPHIR DU RHEU would be my play. He is very highly thought of in the Nicholls yard and he won't be carrying top weight if Coneygree or Many Clouds run. He stays well enough and seems to have a little bit of class about him. The obvious worry is his jumping but he sailed around Aintree last time out and he is in the right hands. There's a bit of 13/2 available but I'd much rather take 5s on the day knowing I was guaranteed a run.
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Report Chad Collins number wan November 23, 2015 9:09 AM GMT
What are the plans for Don Poli does anyone know?  Can't believe he will start at 20-1 if declared, but presume must be aimed elsewhere...
Report shockster November 23, 2015 9:26 AM GMT
5 day decs out by lunchtime which should clear up some of the picture.
Report ACStafford November 23, 2015 9:51 AM GMT
From WM stable tour on Don Poli: "He has an entry in the Hennessy but it's doubtful he will go there without a run."
Report Chad Collins number wan November 23, 2015 10:48 AM GMT
Cheers! Looking forward to seeing the entries.
Report Fashion Fever November 23, 2015 1:02 PM GMT
no don poli or vvm

valseur lido left in, surley the interesting one
Report jollyswagman November 23, 2015 1:21 PM GMT
i'm a massive fan of valseur lido too, he won two grade 1s last year one over 3 miles. he was available at 70 on here yesterday so i thought this might not be the target as he is also entered in the john durkan. however, his price is down to 16 on here today so maybe this is the target afterall. if it is i will be gutted as i've missed the decent prices! that said i do think coneygree is a beast and if the going is suitable he will take a lot of beating.
Report shockster November 23, 2015 1:26 PM GMT
Strange that Mullins said last year that he should have got a run into Djakadam for a race as big as this, yet both Valseur Lido and Ballycasey would run here without a prep. VL is definitely of interest if you can ignore the lack of a run and I'd say short enough price now also.

FWIW I've had a few quid at 70's on here on First Lieutenant carries only 10-01. Decent comeback behind Gold Cup 3rd, Road to Riches over an inadequate 2 1/2 miles. 2nd to Bobs Worth in this race in 2012 off a 12lb higher mark and if ground stays g/s it will be fine.  Also on Bobs Worth 16/1 EW as also appears too well in.

That's my AP finished for this race.  Really hope Coneygree turns up and will back him on the day. If he runs I'll consider the ground soft enough or he wouldn't have run.
Report 1st time poster November 23, 2015 1:27 PM GMT
2 horses already at 7 to 2
Report deepingfox November 23, 2015 8:38 PM GMT
VALSUER LIDO for me, improved markedly for 3M LTO, and extra 2F should help, with Ruby onboard should give  good run at the price. He is a lively long-priced possible for the Gold Cup, 2nd season chaser, Grade 1 3M winner, whats not to like.
Report IrisDeBalme November 23, 2015 9:09 PM GMT
My main fancy for this is THE YOUNG MASTER (16/1 antepost) - Sam Waley Cohen on board (I think they bought the horse), ... has a bit of a weight pull with Saphir de Rheu lto (albeit a 7l beating), and with the weight allowance... think he is a type of horse that can do well in a race like this. Definitely one to watch this season.
Report shockster November 23, 2015 9:23 PM GMT
Last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Coneygree (Mark Bradstock) heads 21 contenders for the £200,000 Hennessy Gold Cup (3.00pm), the highlight of the three-day bet365 Festival at Newbury, on Saturday, November 28.

The eight-year-old, who is 7/2 joint-favourite with bet365, tops the weights on 11st 12lb and is attempting to follow in the footsteps of such luminaries as Mandarin, Mill House, Arkle, Bregawn, Burrough Hill Lad, Denman and Bobs Worth who all landed the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Coneygree is a dual Grade Two winner at Newbury and made a winning seasonal reappearance when sauntering to a 25-length victory at Sandown Park on November 8. He had an injury scare last week but is an intended runner on Saturday.

Saphir Du Rheu (Paul Nicholls, 11st 3lb) is bet365′s other 7/2 joint-favourite. The six-year-old won a Grade One novices’ chase at Aintree last season and also made a winning comeback when comfortably landing a Listed chase by seven lengths from The Young Master (Neil Mulholland, 10st 4lb, 12/1) at Carlisle on November 1. Trainer Neil Mulholland is also set to be represented by The Druids Nephew (10st 10lb, 10/1), seventh in last year’s renewal before going on to take a Grade Three handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Colin Tizzard expects the likely pace of the race to play into the hands of Theatre Guide (9st 7lb, 33/1). The eight-year-old, who runs in the same colours as recent Betfair Chase winner Cue Card, shaped well on his reappearance when third in a two and a half mile Listed handicap chase at Wetherby on October 30.

Theatre Guide was third to Triolo D’Alene in the 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup and is set to race from 7lb out of the handicap.

Tizzard said: “Theatre Guide will run in the Hennessy Gold Cup, all being well.

“He has done a lot of work since Wetherby. Of all the horses we have run this season, he definitely needed his first run the most. He has been working with Cue Card, although he has not been keeping up with him!

“He has been placed in the Hennessy before off a higher mark and I think he is a better horse now.
“Coneygree will go off like the clappers and the race will probably fall apart. We are looking forward to it.”

Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson, 10st 7lb, 7/1) landed the Henesssy Gold Cup in 2012 before annexing the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2013. He got back to winning ways when defeating stable companion Simonsig in a conditions hurdle at Aintree on November 7 and is racing from a 7lb lower mark than when winning in 2012.

Alan King’s stable has been in great form this season and he has two possible starters on Saturday in Smad Place (10st 9lb, 7/1) and Ned Stark (9st 8lb, 25/1, pictured right). Smad Place finished a staying-on fifth last year and won a graduation chase by eight lengths from Fingal Bay (Philip Hobbs, 9st 12lb, 25/1) at Kempton Park on November 2, while the lightly-raced Ned Stark was a Grade Two scorer at Wetherby last season.

Ned Stark
Other contenders include Houblon Des Obeaux (Venetia Williams, 10st 10lb, 16/1), who was runner-up to Many Clouds in 2014 and also chased home Coneygree in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury in February, while If In Doubt (Philip Hobbs, 10st 3lb, 12/1) disappointed on his final start of last season in the Irish Grand National but triumphed in the Listed Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.

Four Irish-trained contenders remain. The trio from Willie Mullins are dual Grade One winner Valseur Lido (10st 11lb, 10/1), Ballycasey (10st 2lb, 33/1) and Urano (9st 8lb, 33/1), while Mouse Morris has left in First Lieutenant (10st 1lb, 33/1) who finished third to Bobs Worth back in 2012.

First Lieutenant, a Grade One winner at Aintree in 2013, made his first appearance of the season at Clonmel in a Grade Two chase on November 12, when he finished fourth to Road To Riches.

Mouse Morris said today: “First Lieutenant will hopefully come over for the Hennessy.
“He is grand after his run in Clonmel and there is not a bother on him. We left the headgear off there because he was just starting back and I thought it was a very good run.
“He is showing me a bit of sparkle and I feel there is still a good bit of ability there if I can get him back.”
Report Vbear2 November 23, 2015 9:51 PM GMT
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX for me (16/1 each way generally) was placed second in the race last year off top weight of 11.12. Only having to carry 10.10 this year he has an eye catching bit of form with Coneygree when beaten by him 7 lengths over C/D but gets a 15 pound pull in the weights from that run. Only catch would be a no no for quick ground but if the ground turns up soft he looks a ridiculously good each way angle.
Report tim6 November 23, 2015 10:24 PM GMT
Like him myself but is he definitely lining up
Report lordnoise November 23, 2015 10:34 PM GMT
Valseur Lido - runner ? Great chance if so imo.
Report ACStafford November 23, 2015 11:23 PM GMT
Venetia Williams said that Houblon Des Obeaux was an intended runner about a week ago. I'd be surprised if he didn't run even on good ground. The drying ground is of course a concern for his chances though.

I agree with the above posters that Valseur Lido is definitely worth considering. With the firmer than usual ground in early Autumn however, Mullins admitted a while back that he couldn't get as much work into his horses as he would do usually, which has probably left a few needing their first run. Someone suggested Ruby would ride VL. Surely it would be Cooper.
Report barnesey November 24, 2015 10:03 AM GMT
Valseur lido being 19.5 on here surely raises doubt about his participation in this for me?
Report shockster November 24, 2015 10:31 AM GMT
Coneygree out of Hennessy. Sad
Report jollyswagman November 24, 2015 10:50 AM GMT
barnsey he was 70s on sunday so i thought vl wasnt hennessy bound but he was down to 18 on monday so i thought he would turn up. however, in today's racing post mullins said he's still not sure and the john durkan is a possibility. on the gold cup thread several people have pointed out that as gigginstown have so many good horses he may end up ryanair bound. if so then the john durkan would seem the place to start. i really think he's a stayer though so want to see him in the 3mile plus races.
Report ACStafford November 24, 2015 11:00 AM GMT
Shame about Coneygree. I layed out of most of my antepost bet thankfully, but I was looking forward to seeing him on Saturday. Time to look at the race from a different angle.
Report barnesey November 24, 2015 11:13 AM GMT
Definitely think valseur is a stayer and genuinely believe they ran him in the wrong race at Cheltenham, I think he would of gone very close in the RSA......... Gigginstown do seem to have 5 for the gold cup at the moment but I think one will be in the Ryanair and maybe one will be saved to be cherry ripe for one of the other Spring festivals
Report ACStafford November 24, 2015 11:22 AM GMT
Mullins has often stated that he believes VL to be an out-and-out stayer, so he will try to get him aimed towards the Gold Cup, but you may be right that Gigginstown will differ in their opinion with all the options they already have.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y November 24, 2015 11:55 AM GMT
Valseur Lido would not have a prayer of beating Don Poli over 3m 2 1/2f around Cheltenham so why would even willie want him aimed there if he already has Vautour as well
Report jasey November 24, 2015 12:36 PM GMT
Mullins has no say where VL runs and if giggis want 4 or 5 bulletts for the Gold Cup then thats what will happen.
I think Mullins rates Don Poli not in his top 3 of GC hopes.
I think VL is a underatted horse and hope he runs  at Newbury.
Report unclepuncle November 24, 2015 1:14 PM GMT
If he ran VL should be close to favourite imo - the fact he is 14/1+ makes me think he won't be coming over.
Report tim6 November 24, 2015 1:20 PM GMT
SDR now to be top weight how much will weights go up
Report shockster November 24, 2015 1:25 PM GMT
Weights to rise 9lb.
Report ACStafford November 24, 2015 3:18 PM GMT
Now that he's in the handicap, Theatre Guide looks well weighted. Last year's experiment of trying to turn him into a graded horse didn't work, but its helped in that he's slipped down the weights and he's 6lb lower in than he was when finishing third two years ago. Tizzard appears to be on good form too. Same owners as Cue Card. I wonder if they will jock up Brennan.
Report shockster November 24, 2015 3:27 PM GMT
I agree ACS and have had a little bet even though I said above I was finished with this market.  Coneygree has changed the complexion of the race without turning up.Laugh
Report Autocue November 24, 2015 3:39 PM GMT
Agree Coneygree connections have done Theatre Guide a favour putting him in the race on 10-2. Handicapper has also given him a chance. As well as that Hennessy form when a 6 year old, he's nearly a stone better off with Fox Appeal for their dead heat last year. Ground doesn't seem to be an issue and I'm hoping Paddy will be on board again.
Cautionary note: I thought my logic was good regarding Generous Ransom in the Paddy Power but he was dreadful. On a positive note I'd have more faith in Tizzard to get one ready than Gifford jnr.
Report Can't Catch Me November 24, 2015 4:56 PM GMT
I really fancy Smad Place for this.

Fancied him for my life last year and thought he ran a pretty solid race considering it was his seasonal bow. King said afterwards that he felt the lack of a run had cost him, so good to see he has had a better prep this year. Hard to know just how good Fingal Bay still is, but he couldnt have been more impressive imo. King also has his string in much better form than this time last year and he gets in off the same mark.  Fell short of being a genuine Grade 1 contender last year but still did OK in those top races and this looks more his level.

Good luck.
Report pipedreamer November 24, 2015 6:22 PM GMT
Best to stick to a speed horse who likes a galloping track.Horses that can only win in smallish  fields like Ascot and Cheltenham tend to flatten out in the straight.The surprise last year was that Many Clouds displayed, in the straight in his leg and stride action,signs of needing to dig deep [a hill finish],and not necessarily a galloping flat straight.Remarkable that he won at Cheltenham in December as well.
Anyway one on Saturday should have 5 good reasons for backing the winner.
Report sixtwosix November 24, 2015 8:44 PM GMT
Disappointing to see the field shrinking day by day ,will be lucky to have 12 runners for this historic race at this rate.
Report IrisDeBalme November 24, 2015 8:53 PM GMT
Not really surprised CONYGREE not running... updates on the horse have been inconsistent but very disappointing from a race perspective.

Bookies are absolutely clueless:

How Saphir De Rhue can be 3/1 in places is the biggest joke ever - with a 9lb rise??? He should be 3rd favourite behind Bobs Worth and Smad Place, weight puts him totally out of the picture... this horse is only a 6 year old considering last season he fell or unseated in two chases and then reverts to hurdles - does make him even more suspect in a strong paced race with the likes of Young Master in the field..

Anyone backing him at this stage (ante post) need their head testing...
Report Benjy November 24, 2015 9:19 PM GMT
SDR should be winning this even off his current mark if he's going to be competitive in the GC. Considering inexperience not a viable bet at this stage though.

If in Doubt the one who I think could be well handicapped and will likely be my bet on the day.
Report knot in wood November 24, 2015 9:30 PM GMT
hoping ned stark would run in the 2m 6f peter o'sullivan h'cap chase on the same card,but with conneygree coming out they could be tempted to run in the hennessy.

fancy there's a decent chase in him this season.
Report Steamship November 24, 2015 9:33 PM GMT
I think If In Doubt will go well on Saturday and I like him early for the GN.

I agree about Ned Stark
Report luckyme November 24, 2015 10:30 PM GMT
Ned Stark entered in two races plus the hennessy on saturday however with Coneycree out the place prize money in the hennessy is up for grabs.

Winner £113,900 2nd £42,740 3rd £21,400 4th £10,660 5th £5,360 6th £2,680

Peter O' Sullevan Chase
Winner £25,024 2nd £7,392 3rd £3,696 4th £1,848 5th £924 6th £464

Anything could grab 2nd or 3rd now the weights have gone up and possible soft/heavy ground.
Report duffy November 24, 2015 11:35 PM GMT
Reallly like SDR, not bothered about his weight just think that we just haven't seen all of what he can do just yet, it's funny to think that he was fav. to beat coneygree twice last year without completing the course and at Kempton coneygree couldn't go quick enough for carraig mor who led him before coming down......what SDR did to carraig mor at Aintree gives just a little insight into what he has in his locker, reckon he'll be a big GC player after Saturday.
Report Giddy November 25, 2015 12:07 AM GMT
Fancy Fingal Bay to run a big race. Finished legless behind Smad Place last time out and would expect him to strip a lot fitter and would assume this has always been his target
Also travelled well for a long way last year but dropped out tamely when he came under pressure for which burst blood vessels were to blame
Happy to take my chances e/w at the current odds
Report luckyme November 25, 2015 9:38 AM GMT
1959     Kerstin     9     11-10     Stan Hayhurst       Verly Bewicke
1963     Mill House     6     12-00     Willie Robinson      Fulke Walwyn
1964     Arkle             7     12-07     Pat Taaffe       Tom Dreaper
1965     Arkle             8     12-07     Pat Taaffe       Tom Dreaper
1981     Diamond Edge     10     11-10     Bill Smith       Fulke Walwyn
2005     Trabolgan       7     11-12     N J Henderson       M A Fitzgerald
2007     Denman (IRE)     7     11-12     P F Nicholls       S Thomas   
2009     Denman (IRE)     9     11-12     P F Nicholls       R Walsh

Only 6 horses have carried 11-10 since 1959. Arkle (twice, Denman (twice) and Mill house 6yr old 12st, I know its not a great field but is SDR up there with them and at 3/1 ?.
Report duffy November 25, 2015 2:19 PM GMT
I don't think it is a very deep race, BW and SP are 2nd and 3rd favs. in the betting, bob's is being priced up on a hurdles run that people are assuming means he's back to his chase best....I don't get that logic at all and SP?? well how many years have we been talking about him.

SDR, is that classy novice with bags of potential that you want for this race, I accept that you can argue that he's weighted as if he's already done it but as I say, the race is packed full of exposed horses for the most part that we know all about, that I think he can give the weight too...valseur lido would be the one to worry about most because he's also your typical classy novice with bags of improvement potential in him.
Report Can't Catch Me November 25, 2015 2:25 PM GMT
and SP?? well how many years have we been talking about him

Er, not many! Last season was his first out of novice company and he only had four runs. The Hennessy, The Cotswold Chase, The Gold Cup and the Betfred Bowl at Aintree. He wasnt disgraced in any of those imo so a bit early to be writing him off!
Report Can't Catch Me November 25, 2015 2:26 PM GMT
I'd agree its not a very deep renewal though, which is why I fancy SP Grin
Report duffy November 25, 2015 2:58 PM GMT
Jeez...hasn't he been around longer than that...he must have been hurdling for about 8 years, that's where I'm getting mixed upGrin, anyhow I think we know how good he is and that is in that group of admirable horses that run their race but are below top class, perhaps even a couple of levels below...I perhaps have SDR on too high of a pedastool but he's got to be able to give him 8lbs and a right old thumping if he's anywhere near as good as I hope he is.
Report Can't Catch Me November 25, 2015 3:14 PM GMT
Depends how high a pedastool even is... sounds a bit lower to me Mischief

Yeah point taken about his hurdling. I might be wrong, but I dont think we have seen the best of him yet and think this might be his season. But can see your point, if SDR is a genuine GC contender and a top class horse, 8lb isnt insurmountable. I just think he's a poor price. But best of luck
Report shockster November 25, 2015 3:44 PM GMT
The race does have a very exposed look to it compared to most years.  SDR is a 2nd season chaser but handicapped on hurdle rating. I'd be impressed if he carried this off under top weight.  Valseur Lido 2nd season chaser looks like missing the race looking at his Betfair price. Ned Stark 2nd season chaser but already ran in 4 handicap chases. The Young Master 2nd season chaser but already ran in 3 Hcp Chases. If In Doubt 2nd season chaser ran in 2 Hcps and Splash of Ginger 2nd season chaser and ran in 4 Hcp chases.

So only SDR has not run in a HCP. If you fancy him fair enough.  The rest you need a reason on why they'll improve? 

Going down the list.

Druids Nephew. Much higher in the weights and very big price on Betfair. Will he run

Houblon Des Obeaux ran a cracker last year and likes soft

Smad Place has course wins and on Heavy and had a prep this year.

Bobs Worth massively well in if anywhere near his best.

Fox Appeal is very consistent but handicapper has him.

The Young Master is only 6 but Hcpr may have him.

Splash Of Ginger is unexposed at the trip and won a Betfair hurdle here. Big price if you think he'll stay.

If In Doubt is one of the least exposed but needed first runs last year. Tough ask first run of the season

Ballycasey was always thought highly of, but not delivered. Betfair price suggests not coming.

First Lieutenant is another massively well in on old form but soft ground is a big negative. Mouse Morris does say he has seen the old sparkle.

Cloudy Too is totally exposed and had terrible prep run.

Fingal Bay is well in on hurdle form but doesn't look as good a chaser. Could surprise?

Benbens is on a career high mark after winning a veterans chase and now trys the Hennessy.

Al Co is still on a higher mark than when he won Scottish National. Plenty to do first time out.

Ned Stark is one of the least exposed and has had a prep. Maybe but not sure he's classy enough.

Urano is fully exposed and struggled to win over the summer.

Theatre Guide has a great weight and has been placed in the race previously. Chances.

There you have my thoughts.

I've backed Bobs 16/1 EW
FL at 70 but laid a bit off
Theatre Guide at 50 but laid a bit off
Fox Appeal at 350.

Good luck
Report shockster November 25, 2015 3:50 PM GMT

I missed off The Giant Bolster but he's too high in the weights and hates soft.
Report luckyme November 25, 2015 4:18 PM GMT
on his blog on paddipower site ruby says 2don't forget URANO AT 33s.
Report shockster November 25, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
Well Urano has run in 5 Hcps since May and won none of them.  He is on his highest ever mark so I'll be surprised big time if he can win a Hennessy.
Report shockster November 25, 2015 4:25 PM GMT
As expected Valseur Lido now a non runner.
Report The RealDeal November 25, 2015 8:43 PM GMT
Do we think it's going to be Soft on Saturday?

Good to Soft, Soft in places this afters.
Report the bloob November 25, 2015 8:50 PM GMT
I like Theatre Guide for this, glad I took some 33/1 yesterday as now in to 25/1. I can see there being a few more withdrawals so 4 places antepost is a decent e/w bet
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 25, 2015 9:16 PM GMT
Been moist all week with no wind at all, will be closer to soft than good to soft imo.
Report John.W.Henry. November 25, 2015 9:44 PM GMT
The stick readings are extremely low. 5 i think for the chase course and just 4 for the hurdle course which is historically very low ( much lower than last seasons slugfest )
Report John.W.Henry. November 25, 2015 9:46 PM GMT
You will need a slugger if those reading prove to be correct. I cannot see it improving maybe a slight deterioration. Soft heavy ground stayers to the fore. Possibly lighter weighted runners in the distance races. Proven form at the trip and further on soft or heavy ground will be a big advantage
Report ACStafford November 25, 2015 11:07 PM GMT
Excellent summary shockster. I agree with the vast majority of what you say there. As I've said earlier I consider Theatre Guide to be overpriced, even after being cut over the last 24 hours.

After seeing those going stick figures and with bits of rain forecast over the next few days, I accept it will probably be soft ground now. Houblon Des Obeaux will be my other bet off 1lb lower than last year. If In Doubt is interesting but short enough now, so I'd consider Smad Place the best value of the market leaders.
Report Can't Catch Me November 26, 2015 7:37 AM GMT
Agreed AC. Have added Houblon myself at 14/1. Race conditions look right up his street.
Report sageform November 26, 2015 9:00 AM GMT
I held off having a bet until the field looked more cedrtain and have now got just a small interest in Fingal Bay. I know that Philip Hobbs has always thought him a very good horse and I was lucky enough to have been told that he was aimed at the Pertemps final before he ran in the qualifier. I still have doubts about his jumping at this level over fences.
Report Autocue November 26, 2015 10:20 AM GMT
There's always a concern he'll jump over the rails instead of the fences.
Report unclepuncle November 26, 2015 7:47 PM GMT
Definitely looks like it will be horrendous going - rain Friday evening and possibly before/during the race on Saturday.

Happy with my Smad Place bet but have saved on Urano (33/1) and Ned Stark (14/1).
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 26, 2015 8:15 PM GMT
Coneygree would had sluiced in Cry

I was on the course today and i was surprised as it didnt walk really soft, it had give in it but with a solid feel underneath. The rain could change all that.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 26, 2015 8:52 PM GMT
How many of use backed the winner at 25/1?

Now 8s ;)
Report Autocue November 27, 2015 6:07 PM GMT
I retract my dismissive comment about Fingal Bay's jumping. Looking at video form it is much improved.
Report dunlaying November 27, 2015 6:28 PM GMT
One for the flutterers ( 50/1 in places) could be Splash Of Ginge. I do not think he is particularly well treated but a good claimer will help his cause and he might just be unexposed. Small stakes e/w and hope to hedge out. I don't think any of the "experts" have mentioned it which only be a good sign. Speculative.
Report tim6 November 27, 2015 8:04 PM GMT
like the young master but why oh why do they put SWC up hasn't he ruined enough top class horses
Report ghostlygunner November 27, 2015 8:20 PM GMT
why the drift on bobs worth please? is it the ground as thought stamina wasn't an issue having won a gold cup on soft ? still think its thrown in here Cool
Report Benjy November 27, 2015 10:24 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2015 -- 2:04PM, tim6 wrote:

like the young master but why oh why do they put SWC up hasn't he ruined enough top class horses

His old man is part/majority owner now isn't he?

Report Benjy November 27, 2015 10:26 PM GMT

Nov 27, 2015 -- 2:20PM, ghostlygunner wrote:

why the drift on bobs worth please? is it the ground as thought stamina wasn't an issue having won a gold cup on soft ? still think its thrown in here

Could be a(nother) big day for Nico de Boinvile. All 5 of his have chances imo.

Report CVByrne November 27, 2015 11:46 PM GMT
If in Doubt, First Lieutenant, Bobs Worth, Saphir Du Rheu, The Young Master, Splash of Ginge, Druids Nephew

Only horses who can win this race.

If in Doubt 25/1
Bobs Worth 10/1
First Lieutenant 70.0
Splash of Ginge 110.0

My lot. But do Fancy Saphir Du Rheu is more a 5/2 shot tbh. Tempted to take the 5/1 we'll get early tomorrow.

I'd really love If in Doubt to win, tipped him up quite a bit in recent weeks at 25/1

Best of luck all. Love this days racing and am headed off there to get soaked in rain tomorrow
Report nocturnal November 27, 2015 11:50 PM GMT
Evening All
Usual conundrum of a big handicap,with seasoned horses taking on the young pretenders.
Couple stats of interest going back to 2003....only 2/12 winners aged over 7(carruthers/Denman)
Only 3/12 have carried less than 11-0 stone
Only qualifier on just those two would be the likely fav Saphir Du Rheu,fine horse,can,t help feeling hes handicapped on his hurdles form,dangerous trainer,it would take some performance to win this off 11-12,in the forecast conditions.

Always difficult to find an angle,trying to second guess trainers thoughts and horses prep,however keep coming back to one horse,if there is one well ahead of his mark I think it could be NED STARK.
Trained by A king,lovely racing weight 10-03,very few miles on the clock,all of his wins have soft in the going,he strikes me as an out and out stayer in the making,very much the type this trainer excels with.
Sent off fav for the 3 miler at the festival day 1,he was first off the bridal 2nd circuit,yet still ran to the line,on ground too quick.His prep lto behind Pendra was also eyecatching,bang there turning in on good ground,not given a hard time.
Now hes tackled a couple decent sized fields,i,m hoping he has ideal conditions to run a big race tomorrow.

Dangers a plenty,his stablemate ran eyecatcher 2014,and Theatre Guide remains well handicapped on his best form.
Regardless, lets hope they all return safely and best luck to all.
Report dunlaying November 28, 2015 12:16 AM GMT
11:46 Splash Of Ginge 110?
40 at best
Report stevo1 November 28, 2015 12:31 AM GMT
He backed it while back Noc. Backed Fav at 5s,not confident in wide open race,real shame Coneygree not running.
Report nocturnal November 28, 2015 12:53 AM GMT
Dunlaying....CV bet was antepost before decs,(page 5 this thread),I did look at the AP market that evening and SOG was around 90/1 on here with some matched above that,his other dart was not declared,risky game me thinks,plenty sat with decent vouchers.

CVB...Did not see your post,burning the midnight oil?
Good luck tomorrow,does look good cardWink
Report stevo1 November 28, 2015 1:05 AM GMT
Sorry Noc meant Dun, need sleep good luck Saturday all.
Report Facts November 28, 2015 2:19 AM GMT
My two against the field :-

If In Doubt
The Young Master!
Report Rydal November 28, 2015 9:23 AM GMT
Does anyone know if any horses were balloted out or if all got in? (Theatre Guide had Godsmejudge and Algernon Pazham below him at the forfeit stage).
Report Autocue November 28, 2015 11:45 AM GMT
“We have left him in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is not at that level yet...”
Colin Tizzard speaking about Theatre Guide last season. Nobody would suggest he's anywhere near a Gold cup horse now but he doesn't have to be off 139. Clearly the trainer thinks he has ability and he can get one ready for a big handicap off a low weight. I just hope he can run to his best form and Paddy has been schooling him. They had a few crossed wires last time out.
Report metro john November 28, 2015 12:13 PM GMT
IF IN DOUBT is a sticky jumper, but with a clear round and conditions just perfect, will take all the beating, will be staying on strong!
Report FELTFAIR November 28, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
Backing Smad Place each way.
Report Steamship November 28, 2015 2:57 PM GMT
Going with Fingal Bay as he was fancied last year and Hobbs won this with Whats Up Boys who had also won a big Hcap Hdl at the festival.
If In Doubt to go well possibly 4th
Report unclepuncle November 28, 2015 3:10 PM GMT
Get the f**k in.Cool
Report knot in wood November 28, 2015 3:10 PM GMT
well done smad place backers-great win.
Report FELTFAIR November 28, 2015 3:10 PM GMT
Language Timothy.
Report jollyswagman November 28, 2015 3:10 PM GMT
what a performance, well done winners. i backed him ..... last year Cry
Report Can't Catch Me November 28, 2015 3:16 PM GMT
Boom. What a performance. So pleased for the horse.
Report Can't Catch Me November 28, 2015 3:17 PM GMT
Only horses who can win this

Reckon you forgot one CV Plain
Report Autocue November 28, 2015 3:18 PM GMT
Well done Smad Place backers. Brilliant run in those conditions. Theatre Guide struggled to jump out of the ground, hopefully won't go up much as will be of interest on better ground.
Report knot in wood November 28, 2015 3:20 PM GMT
good thread-that's what the forum should be about.
Report Giddy November 28, 2015 3:21 PM GMT
Wow! Superb performance! Well done backers
Report tim6 November 28, 2015 3:25 PM GMT
well done to all smad backers good to see horses came back safe
Report duffy November 28, 2015 3:25 PM GMT
Yep well done winnersCool
Report Facts November 28, 2015 3:39 PM GMT
Report JOCI Club November 28, 2015 4:06 PM GMT
Impressive. Ground had a big say.
Report tim6 November 28, 2015 5:00 PM GMT
also well done bloob for tipping theatre guide at 33\1 didn't even need the four places
Report sageform November 29, 2015 8:37 AM GMT
Sorry if this is interpreted as after timing but I notice that If in Doubt is by Herons Island whose progeny much prefer good ground. Fingal bay was my main choice and he ran well but I did have a saver on Smad as he had beaten FB last time.
Report betilyerded November 29, 2015 9:11 AM GMT
tim6 - you were right and i was wrong. SWC fell off The Young Master, I dont even think the horse made a mistake. All that anticipation for that to happen!

Very luckily I backed Smad Place e/w in the w/o fav market as i thought he couldnt be chiselled out of the first 4 and at 7's was a bet to nothing - didnt really expect him to win and in that manner. Very impressive and Alan King deserves a big pat on the back. Would love to see him in the King george but doesnt sound like he is going.
Report nocturnal November 29, 2015 1:37 PM GMT
Well done to winners,superb performance from the the king yard,honest enough to admit they undercooked him prior to last years renewal,tactics spot on yesterday,ridden like a good horse.
Theatre guide deserves credit,best of the closers, despite some sloppy jumping early on,should not go up too much.
Ned Stark was disappointing,not totally dismissed off his current mark,not given a hard time home straight.
The other one noted was Urano,travelled well for a long way,allowed to come home in his own time once chance gone,mark 140 looks workable and hes only 7,he may well be work in progress for later in the year.
Report unclepuncle November 29, 2015 1:56 PM GMT
Ned Stark and Urano were my two savers, and like you say both ran well enough for a long way before giving up once their chance had gone. Definitely keeping my eye on them in their next engagement or two.
Report sageform November 30, 2015 7:37 AM GMT
Urano looked to be a 2.5 mile horse on that evidence. The only mild surprise when I looked at the result was Bobs worth in sixth and not beaten that far. I hardly saw him at all when watching the race live and assumed he would pull up but I suppose he might win something like a Welsh National off 150. Not many of the runners got the trip on that ground and at the pace set by the winner. Theatre Guide looked totally outpaced on the first circuit but was the only one making ground on the winner in the last mile.
Report Autocue November 30, 2015 3:22 PM GMT
Theatre Guide was held up out the back and made a mess of the first fence which put him on the back foot for the rest of the race.
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