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30 Sep 15
12:03
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02 Apr 03
Couldnt see a thread so thought we best get one going....
QATAR PRIX DE L’ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP
Gr1, 2ans et plus, 1.000m, 350.000 €
# - Cheval – Entraîneur
1 – MOVE IN TIME – D. O’Meara
2 – MUTHMIR – W. Haggas
3 – WATCHABLE – D. O’Meara
4 – SON CESIO – H. A. Pantall
5 – HUMIDOR – G. Baker
6 – INTIBAAH – G. Baker
7 – STEPPER POINT – W. Muir
8 – STEPS – R. Varian
9 – GOLDREAM – R. Cowell
10 – MAAREK – Mlle E. Mccutcheon
11 – CASPIAN PRINCE – D. Ivory
12 – MIRZA – R. Guest
13 – JUSTICE DAY – D. Elsworth
14 – TAKE COVER – D. Griffiths
15 – RANGALI – H. A. Pantall
16 – SOLE POWER – E. Lynam
17 – PEARL SECRET – T. Barron
18 – PROFITABLE – C. Cox
19 – MONSIEUR JOE – P. Midgley
20 – IFFRANESIA – R. Cowell
21 – MECCA’S ANGEL – M. Dods
22 – KATAWI – C. Wall
23 – LETTERS OF NOTE – M. O’Callaghan
24 – GUTAIFAN – R. Hannon
Doesn't look a vintage renewal to me. Would love to see Mecca's Angel win for connections, but think the likely good ground is going to make it hard for her. Think Move in Time will run another good race, but cant see much value in his price.
I've narrowed it down to 2. Firstly Sole Power. This race definitely owes the horse won imo... could easily have won 1 or 2 renewals by now, and clearly he is going to need a big slice of luck with the way the race is always run, together with his running style. But I get the feeling he could well be peaking at the right time this year, rather than peaking mid summer and trying to be kept going for this, as seems to have happened previously. Thought it was really good run in the Nunthorpe, which doesn't leave him with that much to find with the fav, and last times easier assignment should have put him spot on for this. The ground should also be absolutely perfect. Granted he isnt getting any younger, but looks a pretty solid ew bet to me.
My main fancy however is Goldream. Clearly a bit in and out... but has only had 4 runs this season, so will be fresher than most. Again, a good run in the Nunthorpe which doesn't give him too much to find with the fav (and puts him very close with Sole Power), yet a much, much bigger price at 20-1. Proved at Ascot he can handle a big field sprint and I really rate the trainer. I thought both couldn't quite pick up on the soft ground at York... but particularly Goldream, who showed bags of pace to be up there and travelled as well as anything the whole way. On the forecast better ground, hopefully he wil be able to finish his race a bit better. That will surely stand him in good stead for this.
Any thoughts chaps?
QATAR PRIX DE L’ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP
Gr1, 2ans et plus, 1.000m, 350.000 €
# - Cheval – Entraîneur
1 – MOVE IN TIME – D. O’Meara
2 – MUTHMIR – W. Haggas
3 – WATCHABLE – D. O’Meara
4 – SON CESIO – H. A. Pantall
5 – HUMIDOR – G. Baker
6 – INTIBAAH – G. Baker
7 – STEPPER POINT – W. Muir
8 – STEPS – R. Varian
9 – GOLDREAM – R. Cowell
10 – MAAREK – Mlle E. Mccutcheon
11 – CASPIAN PRINCE – D. Ivory
12 – MIRZA – R. Guest
13 – JUSTICE DAY – D. Elsworth
14 – TAKE COVER – D. Griffiths
15 – RANGALI – H. A. Pantall
16 – SOLE POWER – E. Lynam
17 – PEARL SECRET – T. Barron
18 – PROFITABLE – C. Cox
19 – MONSIEUR JOE – P. Midgley
20 – IFFRANESIA – R. Cowell
21 – MECCA’S ANGEL – M. Dods
22 – KATAWI – C. Wall
23 – LETTERS OF NOTE – M. O’Callaghan
24 – GUTAIFAN – R. Hannon
Doesn't look a vintage renewal to me. Would love to see Mecca's Angel win for connections, but think the likely good ground is going to make it hard for her. Think Move in Time will run another good race, but cant see much value in his price.
I've narrowed it down to 2. Firstly Sole Power. This race definitely owes the horse won imo... could easily have won 1 or 2 renewals by now, and clearly he is going to need a big slice of luck with the way the race is always run, together with his running style. But I get the feeling he could well be peaking at the right time this year, rather than peaking mid summer and trying to be kept going for this, as seems to have happened previously. Thought it was really good run in the Nunthorpe, which doesn't leave him with that much to find with the fav, and last times easier assignment should have put him spot on for this. The ground should also be absolutely perfect. Granted he isnt getting any younger, but looks a pretty solid ew bet to me.
My main fancy however is Goldream. Clearly a bit in and out... but has only had 4 runs this season, so will be fresher than most. Again, a good run in the Nunthorpe which doesn't give him too much to find with the fav (and puts him very close with Sole Power), yet a much, much bigger price at 20-1. Proved at Ascot he can handle a big field sprint and I really rate the trainer. I thought both couldn't quite pick up on the soft ground at York... but particularly Goldream, who showed bags of pace to be up there and travelled as well as anything the whole way. On the forecast better ground, hopefully he wil be able to finish his race a bit better. That will surely stand him in good stead for this.
Any thoughts chaps?
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I'm still not convinced that Mecca's Angel absolutely needs soft ground. She clocked 55.24 at this track back in May, at the very worst it couldn't have been slower than the fast side of good. Her Nunthorpe win was a career best and while it's possible that improvement came about with the softer ground I'm prepared to chance that it was just natural physical improvement and good ground should be fine. I hope so anyway because the rest are a right mediocre lot, apart from Sole Power who obviously isn't as good as he was. If Mecca's Angel doesn't perform then we're in for another 3rd rate winner, in keeping with the results of this race for the last 6 years.
Do Paddy Power know something?
They have pushed Meccas Angel right out to 10/3 and are noticeably shorter on most other runners now. Sole Power as low as 4/1 with them.
Certainly looks like they do.
They have pushed Meccas Angel right out to 10/3 and are noticeably shorter on most other runners now. Sole Power as low as 4/1 with them.
Certainly looks like they do.
Probably just a reaction to the news of the ground. It's possible they wouldn't run her if the ground was fast but I'd be surprised if they've made their decision already. As usual there is a massive overreaction to any news about the ground. Some rain and it's like we're going to have swamp conditions, news of drying ground and it's as though we're going to have summer good to firm going.
Maybe. But PP have a habit of getting it right when they make moves like this IMO. And of all the races on Sunday they probably have a decent insight into what's going on here.
There just seems to be a really noticeable disparity, more than just having some on side. 4/1 about Sole Power who is as big as 7/1 and 5/1 Muthmir who is 10's in places.
doesn't he always put sole power in shorter than other firms? for obvious reasons
Yes normally a point or so shorter.
Can obviously understand them not wanting to lay their horse, but it's the fact they are shortest on so many others that stands out.
Can obviously understand them not wanting to lay their horse, but it's the fact they are shortest on so many others that stands out.
ah i see what you mean...
i have this meccas a long way clear of these, although i like the way move in time has been trained for the race, he isn't any world beater though tbh and seems quite short for his actual form...tricky race as is normally the case with the abbaye
i have this meccas a long way clear of these, although i like the way move in time has been trained for the race, he isn't any world beater though tbh and seems quite short for his actual form...tricky race as is normally the case with the abbaye
They've either taken a view on the probable ground or they're just anticipating punters taking a view on it. Think it's understandable they're just trying to get MA in the book now because if the ground is 'good' a lot of people, rightly or wrongly, won't want to back her. Any faster than that and she could be withdrawn. Doesn't seem too suspicious.
The plan was to back Son Cesio EW after the draw but Ben Linfoot has put him up on the Sporting Life so I've had to back him earlier... managed to get on at 33-1 EW. I backed him in the Prix Maurice De Gheest EW but he didn't get home over 6.5F which was my main worry at the time, he still ran a cracker and finishing a couple of lengths behind Muhaarar and Esoterique is not bad form at all. Dropping back in trip will not be a problem and a strongly run 5F race will suit. SC's trainer Henri-Alex Pantall was in wretched form when SC raced in the Prix Maurice De Gheest but he's had a couple of winners this week so hopefully he will run a good race. I think CCM is spot on about Goldream and I will add him EW after the draw. He's a horse I've always liked, tough, honest and has good tactical speed which will help in this race. If he gets a low draw and Good ground I can see him running very well.
the trip and drying ground is definitely playing into Soul Power's hands, 5fg and quick ground the horse is an absolute monster, and I don't think the horse has lost anything as an 8y/o, despite a few runs that appeared below-par. You can ignore anything over 6fg and on softer ground, my only worry is that the ground won't be quite quick enough
My worry is as always getting to see the bloody race from the track,,a nightmare!!wrong angle,cant see line,half field out picture,always the same,small stakes only!bet muthmir and sole power on monday at double figures!!
I like justice day at a sporting 80s…ran well last time and better ground will suit…might like this sharp 5f..
I've had this debate on here most years... And think I am still on my own with the viewpoint! But I just dont think the draw is that crucial when you look at where previous winners have come from.
A low draw looks a slight advantage... and a really high draw appears a slight negative, but not a huge one. A higher draw clearly looks to be Ok on better ground anyway.
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-8-50
Horses drawn 6 to 10: 4-9-50
Horses drawn 11 to 15: 2-2-49
Horses drawn 16 or higher: 1-1-24
Since 2000:
The 7 winners on good or firmer were drawn in stall 9, 16, 13, 12, 3, 9 & 11
The 8 winners on ground softer than good were drawn 3, 7, 5, 8, 20, 1, 6 & 7.
It appears that a low draw (1 to 8) is favourable on softer ground while a middle to high draw (9 to 16) is more suitable on faster ground.
- See more at: http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/pri...
A low draw looks a slight advantage... and a really high draw appears a slight negative, but not a huge one. A higher draw clearly looks to be Ok on better ground anyway.
Horses drawn 1 to 5: 3-8-50
Horses drawn 6 to 10: 4-9-50
Horses drawn 11 to 15: 2-2-49
Horses drawn 16 or higher: 1-1-24
Since 2000:
The 7 winners on good or firmer were drawn in stall 9, 16, 13, 12, 3, 9 & 11
The 8 winners on ground softer than good were drawn 3, 7, 5, 8, 20, 1, 6 & 7.
It appears that a low draw (1 to 8) is favourable on softer ground while a middle to high draw (9 to 16) is more suitable on faster ground.
- See more at: http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/pri...
I cant find the full draw... could anyone post it please? Cheers
Can't Catch Me- Can't cut and paste but you can get it here-- http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx
Brill, thanks alot Madhu... never thought to look there!
IF the ground is genuine Good then I still think Muthmir is the one. Nice draw too! Takes good horses to win with penalties, both Muthmir, Sole Power and Mecca's have done that this season.
October 2 2015, 18:41
Mecca's Angel appears increasingly unlikely to take her chance in the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp unless there is rain in Paris.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10014951/michael-dods-dilemma-with-meccas-angel-ahead-of-prix-de-labbaye
Mecca's Angel appears increasingly unlikely to take her chance in the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp unless there is rain in Paris.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10014951/michael-dods-dilemma-with-meccas-angel-ahead-of-prix-de-labbaye
The 2yo Gutaifan is a big price here. I have Meccas Angel's Nunthorpe win putting her 8lbs ahead of this field and I have Gutaifan and Goldream joint next best. I don't know how he'll cope with the hurly burly of this race against older horses that might be more physically imposing, plus he's had a couple of hard races, but he certainly looks fast enough to be thereabouts on these terms. Anyway I'll be sticking with MA assuming she runs.
Looks like Paddy were one step ahead yet again....
Dods dilemma with Angel
Last Updated: October 2 2015, 18:41 BST
Mecca's Angel appears increasingly unlikely to take her chance in the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp unless there is rain in Paris.
Sky Bet
Longchamp. Click here to bet.
Mecca's Angel (pink cap): Might not turn up in Paris
Mecca's Angel (pink cap): Might not turn up in Paris
Related ContentFree £50 matched betLive horse racing resultsRacecards and formSign up free to My StableLatest video formHorse Racing oddsLike us on FacebookFollow us on Twitter£5 free bet every week with the Sky Bet Club
Trainer Michael Dods spent Friday afternoon analysing weather forecasts and deliberating over whether to send his brilliant Nunthorpe winner across the Channel, with conditions seemingly drying out by the hour.
Dods has been at pains to keep his flying grey away from fast ground after she suffered an odds-on defeat in the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh on her penultimate start and plans to walk the course himself on Saturday before making any decision on her participation.
"I spoke to somebody who is on the outskirts of Paris and it sounds like it's a beautiful, drying day and I just can't believe the ground isn't quicker than what they're saying," said the Darlington-based trainer.
"The problem is the sprint track is never watered as much as the round course.
"I think at this stage we'll probably let her travel over as she's already down south and the ferry is booked, so there's nothing to lose on that score really. The only thing I would have to do is tell the jockey not to travel if we decide not to run.
"I'm flying over myself on Saturday, so I'll walk the track on Saturday lunchtime and see for myself what it's like.
"The way it's looking at the moment, unless they get rain, I think it's probably unlikely she'll run.
"We saw in Ireland how much the ground affected her and we won't make that mistake again."
Mecca's Angel did also not fair well in the draw. If she does take her chance, she will break from the widest starting berth in stall 19.
"She was drawn in the middle at York which was better than being out wide, it's certainly not a brilliant draw. It's what I was concerned about but what can you do," said Dods.
Dods dilemma with Angel
Last Updated: October 2 2015, 18:41 BST
Mecca's Angel appears increasingly unlikely to take her chance in the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp unless there is rain in Paris.
Sky Bet
Longchamp. Click here to bet.
Mecca's Angel (pink cap): Might not turn up in Paris
Mecca's Angel (pink cap): Might not turn up in Paris
Related ContentFree £50 matched betLive horse racing resultsRacecards and formSign up free to My StableLatest video formHorse Racing oddsLike us on FacebookFollow us on Twitter£5 free bet every week with the Sky Bet Club
Trainer Michael Dods spent Friday afternoon analysing weather forecasts and deliberating over whether to send his brilliant Nunthorpe winner across the Channel, with conditions seemingly drying out by the hour.
Dods has been at pains to keep his flying grey away from fast ground after she suffered an odds-on defeat in the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh on her penultimate start and plans to walk the course himself on Saturday before making any decision on her participation.
"I spoke to somebody who is on the outskirts of Paris and it sounds like it's a beautiful, drying day and I just can't believe the ground isn't quicker than what they're saying," said the Darlington-based trainer.
"The problem is the sprint track is never watered as much as the round course.
"I think at this stage we'll probably let her travel over as she's already down south and the ferry is booked, so there's nothing to lose on that score really. The only thing I would have to do is tell the jockey not to travel if we decide not to run.
"I'm flying over myself on Saturday, so I'll walk the track on Saturday lunchtime and see for myself what it's like.
"The way it's looking at the moment, unless they get rain, I think it's probably unlikely she'll run.
"We saw in Ireland how much the ground affected her and we won't make that mistake again."
Mecca's Angel did also not fair well in the draw. If she does take her chance, she will break from the widest starting berth in stall 19.
"She was drawn in the middle at York which was better than being out wide, it's certainly not a brilliant draw. It's what I was concerned about but what can you do," said Dods.
They always said they'd withdraw her in future if the ground was the faster side of good so nothing has changed and given that proviso it was no surprise nobody wanted to back her. Will just have to see what the ground is really like when they race on it tomorrow. Whether the trainer uses the evidence of the times though is another matter.
Glad I backed Son Cesio antepost now with Mecca's Angel looking likely to be pulled out. Draw not too bad for Son Cesio (13), Move In Time won from 12 last year on Good ground and two others who finished in the first five last year were drawn high.
I have to admit I'm one who has been fixated by the draw too many times over the years in many races. It's my worst habit when betting and has cost me a few times, like changing my mind because I think a horse has a perceived bad draw and then they go and win! It can drive me crazy but we live and learn... well I don't but some do!
I will see if Goldream is a better price on the PMU before I back him, shortened up a bit after his good draw... there I go again, the bloody draw!
Good luck all.
I have to admit I'm one who has been fixated by the draw too many times over the years in many races. It's my worst habit when betting and has cost me a few times, like changing my mind because I think a horse has a perceived bad draw and then they go and win! It can drive me crazy but we live and learn... well I don't but some do!
I will see if Goldream is a better price on the PMU before I back him, shortened up a bit after his good draw... there I go again, the bloody draw!
Good luck all.
Nothing has changed figgis?
Of course there has always been the proviso with the ground, but five days ago Dods said it was still very soft there, even with a dryish forecast he felt they would be ok and if it was good or softer they would run.
Now he is saying it looks unlikely she will run.
I'd say that's quite a change myself.
Of course there has always been the proviso with the ground, but five days ago Dods said it was still very soft there, even with a dryish forecast he felt they would be ok and if it was good or softer they would run.
Now he is saying it looks unlikely she will run.
I'd say that's quite a change myself.
Looks the perfect draw for SC based on the results when the going has been good or better MrD.
Pretty surprised Goldream has shortened quite this much tbh, but obviously happy with the 20's now.
Pretty surprised Goldream has shortened quite this much tbh, but obviously happy with the 20's now.
That was five days ago, I meant nothing has changed since 2 days ago when PP lengthened her price due to faster ground being predicted and no cash for her, they hardly needed a crystal ball.
Unless they knew two days ago it was 'unlikely' the horse would be running....
Presumably, if it was as obvious as you say, every other firm would have done the same and the big prices on other fancied runners wouldn't have been available. PP were quite clearly ahead of the rest, that is indisputable.
Presumably, if it was as obvious as you say, every other firm would have done the same and the big prices on other fancied runners wouldn't have been available. PP were quite clearly ahead of the rest, that is indisputable.
They've either taken a view on the probable ground or they're just anticipating punters taking a view on it. Think it's understandable they're just trying to get MA in the book now because if the ground is 'good' a lot of people, rightly or wrongly, won't want to back her. Any faster than that and she could be withdrawn. Doesn't seem too suspicious.
That's what I posted 2 days ago. The ground is being predicted as faster than good, Dods has said if that's the case then it looks like she won't run, but he'll see. For me nothing has changed since then.
That's what I posted 2 days ago. The ground is being predicted as faster than good, Dods has said if that's the case then it looks like she won't run, but he'll see. For me nothing has changed since then.
But why wouldn't all other firms do the same then? We are not talking about an odd point here or there... They were virtually half the top price of the next four of five in the betting.
Anyway, don't want to argue about it. We obviously don't agree. Paddy Power have a history of stuff like this, at cheltenham it was very noticeable... and I make a point of watching what they do, as they are nearly always right.
Anyway, don't want to argue about it. We obviously don't agree. Paddy Power have a history of stuff like this, at cheltenham it was very noticeable... and I make a point of watching what they do, as they are nearly always right.
You did the right thing CCM backing Goldream early and spot on about the draw. 
I also didn't think he would shorten that much after the draw but that's the way it goes sometimes. I'm pretty sure some bookies have gone 4 places EW on the day of the race in the past, I will keep my powder dry until then and see what happens before I have another dabble.
I also didn't think he would shorten that much after the draw but that's the way it goes sometimes. I'm pretty sure some bookies have gone 4 places EW on the day of the race in the past, I will keep my powder dry until then and see what happens before I have another dabble.
True enough mate. Although the extra place wont matter when he hoses up
They've just taken a view on the ground being the faster side of good, given the ground and weather news already available. If they turned out to be right she probably wouldn't run and even if connections did run her on touch and go ground a lot of punters would be put off backing her so not much to lose as a layer really. I fancied her but I haven't backed her already because of the uncertainty around her and I doubt they've seen more than a few pennies for her in recent days. The other bookmakers were arguably slow to react but I don't see that PP did anything that wasn't foreseeable. If there is an unexpected shower, which does happen occasionally, it could turn out to be a move that backfires, although we all know they'd quickly cut the price again in those circumstances.
CCM, it was not that difficult to predict 3 days ago with the forecast of sunshine all day for several days. The bookmaker just took a view. That's what it's all about!
Meccas's Angel out, not a surprise.
B365 have gone 4 places for EW punters this morning.
B365 have gone 4 places for EW punters this morning.
Gutaifan for me at 14/1. Sole Power is as good as ever but the 2-y-o is value. Of the outsiders Steps has a good shout if it is not fast ground.
With Mecca`s Angel out will back Sole Power each way.
horrid draw but I like Gutaifan e/w , Goldream the one too beat.
Does anyone give Monsieur Joe a chance ,thought PP were too big at 50 and liked Muthmir at double digits but can't see him winning Tbh ,sole power could eat this lot for breakfast but just can't seem to catch it right and got me backs and lays badly wrong with this one before so happy to steaks to the min.Hard race and been a few big priced winners but hard luck stories are the order of the day here ,m-joey a place would be nice.
He's top draw on fast ground, superb and well done CCM.
well done CCM thought Rangali would do it still each way was ok
If you look at the last 5 posts with tips they gave 3 out of the first four at huge odds
very good shout catch me...
excellent work - horse was extremely game, which is what you want when the money is down...i'm a tad annoyed, as didn't think he was capable of running 55 secs and he wanted a stiffer 5...rangali would of saved my book but was in paris and enable to post
good work though enjoy
excellent work - horse was extremely game, which is what you want when the money is down...i'm a tad annoyed, as didn't think he was capable of running 55 secs and he wanted a stiffer 5...rangali would of saved my book but was in paris and enable to post
good work though enjoy
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