GOLDEN HORN 5/1 ARC

Treve is female.

Treve is a she....

I seem to do that in every thread... Think I have the record on calling fillies "he"...

Anyway ... she!

Thanks for the heads up.

The same was said about Taghrooda last year against Treve who had the worst possible preparation to the race.

Would you really want to be comparing Taghrooda with Golden Horn?

I've not compared the two, I'm simply saying going into the race it looked as though Taghrooda would put it to Treve and that didn't happen.

Yes but she was going into the Arc on the back of getting beaten in a p1ss poor Yorkshire Oaks at about 1/6.

Not that surprising she didn't best Treve. GH is going in a completely different proposition... just saying I don't understand the comparison tbh.

And Golden Horn is completely blemish free is he?

Good Luck Iris...but have to say unless you're a fishin about Treve i'm rolling on floor with laughter

You could say there were excuses for Taghrooda's loss to Tapestry. Just as I'm sure the ground was no doubt the excuse for Golden Horn's defeat at the hands of Arabian Queen. Who subsequently ran like a dog in France. Arguably, Free Eagle may well have won the Irish Champion Stakes had Golden Horn not cannoned into him. Fair enough he will appreciate the step back up to 1m4f and Free Eagle may even skip the Arc but for
me the horse capable of posing the biggest threat to Treve is Fabre's New Bay.

Golden Horn preparation the massive problem for me!!To the well too often i think/hope!
Treve/New bay so far the perfect classic preparation for the race!
Agree 100 percent with you Paterson,beat me to the post.

Well interesting last year there was little confidence in her

http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/30356773/treve-101-arc?post_id=541737109#541737109

this year she is all the rage... how racing can change in a year...

On my phone so that link isn't working for me at the moment unfortunately - I assume it's full of negativity towards Treve. Perhaps rightly so considering she was beaten at 3/10 at Longchamp, beaten at 8/13 at Ascot and was beaten at 4/5 when coming 4th of 4 in her final Arc prep in the Vermeille. She could have been backed at any price on the machine after that and was clear there were issues with the horse. I'm sure I'm not alone in saying I was surprised to see her come back to form and win the Arc like that last year, I certainly didn't expect it. This year she couldn't have been more impressive in her preparation. I haven't backed her, I'm still contemplating a bet on New Bay at this stage, but at this moment in time I think she is the most likely winner.

Iris

Have you seen the photo on main Arc thread  of the watering taking place at Longchamp. Not going to help GH surely as the ground is currently descibed as soft with the possibility of rain on Sat.?

Yeah saw that... for me its a case of them paying that fee and supplementing him, I don't see the ground as much as an issue for Golden Horn... with the way the weather is... Just want him to book his ticket... then worry about it on the day.

I think there is a bias in France towards Treve getting a third Arc, but they will be shooting themselves in the foot if class horses like GH didn't run... he is a English Derby horse... best we have at the distance... and will certainly be a full house and a more compelling race if he turns up...

If they want Treve to win an ordinary Arc they may as well flood the place... I personally think it will be more fitting for his toughest test to date in his quest for a third Arc to get GH to run.

Hi Paterson, this year she has not raced against the likes of the Fugue and Cirrus De Aigles, last year she had only 2 lengths to find and bearing in mind she didn't have these horses to beat .. this year her best opposition was Flintshire and last time out she was 2 seconds slower than Postponed...

so I don't think its as scintillating as it seems... but guess there are loads that will disagree with that assessment.

Free Eagle not over priced at 16/1 in a place? Yes it has to prove itself at the trip unlike the other main protagonists but sensed all year this was his main target so I think team Weld must be confident he will stay. On Irish Champion form on ground that would not have totally suited surely 16/1 is just to big.

this year she has not raced against the likes of the Fugue and Cirrus De Aigles
so I don't think its as scintillating as it seems

I actually agree with this. Last year's Arc form wasn't anything special in the history of the race. There was much made of her return to form on the day but by my reckoning she ran no faster than when beaten in the POW. That said, it's still far and away the best piece of form on offer, with the possible exception of Golden Horn's earlier season form, who on that form could run her close in receipt of 5lbs. Not much use having good form though without a good prep to go with it and I'd say it's odds against GH even runs to form.

I'll be very surprised if Golden Horn doesn't run.

I mean what else are they going to do with the horse, this is the best horse race in Europe they might as well go for it. You could save him for the boring Ascot champion stakes or the ridiculous breeders cup, or they could run him in a proper horse race against a proper rival.

He has already lost his unbeaten record they have nothing to lose. I doubt the ground will be that bad, and I think they could have run him in the King George and I think he would have gagged up. The reason they didn't was because they were saving him for the better ground, and that policy backfired as he got beat anyway.

He would have won the King George even in that ground and I can't see the going at Longchamp being that bad. It will probably be good to soft, soft in places at worse and he won't get beat because of the going.

He would have won the King George even in that ground

I agree, I had him 3lbs ahead of the winning performance by Postponed and that's not including the 12lbs allowance, so he'd have had to run over a stone below par, which is possible but not probable.

It will probably be good to soft, soft in places at worse and he won't get beat because of the going

I'm not too sure about that as this isn't the penalty kick the King George would've been. If Treve runs to form then Golden Horn is going to need to run to his absolute best, maybe even having to improve slightly. I'm not sure that would happen unless he gets his optimum ground conditions, or at least good going.

I'm not sure that would happen unless he gets his optimum ground conditions, or at least good going.


but he is going to get good ground figgis so where do we go from there?

Certainly I agree about the King George, obviously history will tell us but I think it has the possibility of being one of the worst G1's of all time and certainly the worst KG of the last 20 years. You might have been able to attached a cart to GH that day and he still would have been in the mix. Be really helpful if we could have a going report in the lead to up the richest race in Europe

but he is going to get good ground figgis so where do we go from there?

Don't think any of us can know that, harry, until Saturday afternoon at the earliest, whatever info we're given before then.

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/paris-16e-arrondissement/75016

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

well every weather report i read figgis seems to think the weather is set fair and if they aren't watering i'd say it will be good ground

In the weekender gallop reports Golden Horn was twice reported to have "burst clear" of it's galloping companion.

At least we can see it's still in good form.

lewisham i longer buy the weekender but was there a report on jack hobbs i just want to know if he is lame

I don't think so Harry, as far as I'm aware he's on course for the champion stakes.

In the weekender gallop reports Golden Horn was twice reported to have "burst clear" of it's galloping companion

Didn't Authorized do something similar before he bombed out in the Arc? I think Chapple-Hyam blamed himself afterwards saying he might've overcooked him.

Peter Chapple Hyam is no John Gosden mind you.

No, Chapple-Hyam has had an Arc neck 2nd though, let's see if Gosden can go one better

I might be remembering the wrong trainer with this but I think it was Vincent O'Brien who said something along the lines of when it gets near the end of the season and you watch a horse do an impressive piece of work on the gallops you never know if that's the last good performance you'll get from it.

Thats definitely the $64,000 question. If you looked at most horses who have tried it over the years, you'd have to be concerned that GH can still be at his peak.

But I really dont think Gosden would be supplementing if he wasnt sure the horse is still in peak condition... and if he is, I dont think Treve has faced a rival this good.

Whatever happens, I just hope they both get there and have no excuses and we see a race to remember.

Figgis 30 Sep 15 14:04 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 5,732 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
In the weekender gallop reports Golden Horn was twice reported to have "burst clear" of it's galloping companion

Didn't Authorized do something similar before he bombed out in the Arc? Wink I think Chapple-Hyam blamed himself afterwards saying he might've overcooked him.

Yes you might have a point there Figgis but as CCM said, Gosden seems to be the man these days when it comes to these big races.

I also get the feeling that they are being increasingly bullish, like with the owner saying he expects to beat Treve easily. I don't recall such a confident statement from him in the past. Also Golden horn for me was undercooked in the champion stakes, he raced lazily there, I expect him to come on for the run.

Whether that will be enough to beat the mare we'll just have to see.

Think JG has in years gone by overdone some of his 3yo,believe this is not the case with GH and expect a career best run ,whether that will be good enough is another matter , of course not being an "Arc type " must be a huge hurdle to overcome

GH last 6 RPR's are 112   124   128(Derby)  133(Eclipse)  119 (Int)  125.(IrishCh).

The Eclipse rating is too high for me. The time was nothing special and he was tiring at the end (on the clock.)For me, the Derby was his best run by far. The ground was fast, he finished well. the last 3 runs were all hard races. He hasn't had much of a breather, if at all.To have any chance of winning the Arc, he has to deliver the 128 again. Can he do it?

Camelot couldn't - he went 121 (2000G)  126(Derby)  119 (Irish Derby) 120 (St leger). The Irish Derby bottomed him and the St leger finished him off. Despite that he went off 2/1 for the Arc and ran to 107.

I don't know what GH will do, whether he can recapture his Derby form or whether after a hard season he will do a Camelot. We won't know until after the race.

Sandown, what did you make of the Irish Champion Stakes run? It was a pretty moderate final time performance for the race but Dettori slowed the pace midway. Do you think that was enough of an excuse for the ordinary time?

I rated it 116 on final time but the finishing splits were nothing special and so no upgrade from me. Nevertheless, an OK time (not exceptional) but visually it looked like he had a hard race as did FE. Maybe only Found didn't have as hard a race as she was nearest at the line and never challenged.

Going back to Authorized I have to say his disappointing run in the Arc wasn't that predictable, certainly not to me anyway. I thought he was the most likely winner and the only reason I didn't back him was I didn't like the price. He'd only had 4 runs that season, with the Eclipse a below par run, but was back to his best at York. So wasn't as likely a candidate to run below form as some other Derby winners. Actually that year I thought Dylan Thomas was more likely to throw in a poor one.

Figgis

Going back to Authorized I have to say his disappointing run in the Arc wasn't that predictable, certainly not to me anyway



Same here. His price was not attractive for the Arc.I had no special negatives for him other than I didn't like his prep.I didn't much like that for DT either but he put up a good overall time and finish at Leopardstown.I backed Zambezi Sun that year so I got  it badly wrong.

The Irish Champion may not have been a particularly exceptional time or last few fractions but the races that preceded it suggested it was fairly soft ground. None of the other races were run anywhere near to standard apart from the last two races.

Fallen Angel

The Irish Champion was run just 2.91 secs outside standard i.e +0.29 secs slow pf. I can't have that as SOFT ground. Top Speed rated the winner as just 97 so I'm being very generous in  giving him 116. If 97 is a better rating than mine then it was a poor time indeed for a G1.

i would argue it doesn't make any sense that all the other races were run at a dawdle. the 16 runner handicap over 1m 6f was run at 7 secs slower than standard, the mile race with 9 runners ran 6.49 seconds slower, only the 1m 4f race might have had an excuse that it was a small field. These wasn't some run of the mill races at Leopardstown where the quality of the field might dictate a poor time these were a G3 and a handicap worth £69k.

You'd also have to rate the 7yo handicapper as something special in the final race if you want to rate the Irish Champion as top class.

Not a great draw in 14

Not sure I see the draw as a huge negative as Golden Horn's best performance in my eyes was held up off a strong pace in the Derby. I think they have have been forced to make the running more often than they would have liked in the last couple of races. My wider concern would be the pace angle and whether we were going to see a true end to end gallop. That being said at least the rain is likely to stay away and this might well be the best ground the horse has encountered since the Eclipse.

well just gone through the field and really the pace in the race is only guaranteed from 2 horses and thats if they want to make the pace?

one is obviously the pace maker shahah drawn in stall 1 and the other is golden horn who like figgis alludes to, is supposed to be held up in this race...

so are we guaranteed a muddling pace like we saw in 2013 when leading light should of been taken to the lead but missed the kick, leading to a lot of hard luck stories which we also saw last year, with the pacemaker just being a moderate horse unable to make it a fast run affair leading to any number of runners bunching and having to come in the other county to make there challenge in the straight, with of course treve coming up the golden highway rail after a perfect trip

will gosden who should of at least given jack hobbs an entry for the draw, going to end up regretting his non sporting decision, we will see, one thing for sure is golden horn will have to do it the hard way imo or risk being a hostage to fortune if the pace in the race doesn't end up as connections may have wished...we will see

i'm not bitter about jack hobbs by the way, just sick

fallen angel says golden horns best performances come off a strong pace . which is the opposite of the arc , they race for position then hold it up and then sprint in the turn . it wont be a fair fight so to speak . there will be four  or five horses that get the run of the race . one of them will win it ,unless something has stones in hand  to usurp them . that his how the arc plays out

Very well done Iris. A class animal given an inspirational ride by Frankie.

No jockey could win that race unless you had vast experience of the track... and decades of experience went into that ride ... well done Frankie master class ... also not many horses are good enough to execute that finish.... it was great to watch

What was a more racing certainty (for me) was Treve would not win - couldn't believe how big the Treve bandwagon was... but the most bitter pill was Postponed not turning up I thought - he was a real Arc contender and he did perform better in the trials...

Hope his connections will reflect on that.

Thanks Facts!

Well done, Iris.

annoyed that I ended up covering all these non-stayers like New bay, when should have won a lot more on Golden Horn.

You deserve a big one Iris for always putting your neck on the line, so very well done. Your idea that Treve had no chance was something but after dick head Pricewise tipped the mare it was a certainty that she would lose, if only I was a layer. As a backer of Never Can Tell in the 2011 Cesarewitch ( I had 8 arrows that year- a 1/4 of the field amazingly ante-post, and posted on here!), I thought that was one of Frankie's best ever rides but today's ride on Golden Horn was exceptional. Well done again Iris. Kind regards.

Thanks Madhu - sometimes you have to avoid the loud noise you get when you hear about a horse certain to win a race ... and (try) not to let it put you off... its really hard sometimes...

but yeah Never Can tell was interesting winner... as Frankie went through a phase in his career when you couldn't back him in big fields... and that was a turning point (to a degree), but this season his has proved his doubters wrong on more than one occasion... and GH is the icing on the cake.

yes well done Iris...

but with the benefit of hindsight, isn't it becoming obvious now that a good derby winner is going to be very hard to beat in the arc?

I'm thinking this fellow, sea the stars and workforce in recent years... just different gravy to most of the slow middle distance horses that line up in the arc year after year.

Always great reading your selections Iris and the rest of you guys who make these threads. I did not have a bet in the race but GH has been underrated all season including by me. Great ride by Dettori.

Hi Lewisham Thanks ...you would think so but you have to go back in history, the Derby was renowned for taking it out of horses - quite a few could never bring their A game come October... It had to be a special horse to maintain the form - horses were specifically trained for the Arc and generally you favour those...  When you look at the stats in the last 10 years like you said...

Golden Horn, Workforce and Sea the stars... skew it to make it a misleading stat... as you have to consider the quality of the horse, not just the race it has run...

In my opinion Sea The Start and Golden Horn are the most outstanding winners of the Derby, Id put them there with the all time greats  ... For GH his last 2 runs were no near the level to win an Arc - but clearly it was the ground... that was the conundrum for punters.. and with such a strong favourite.. and New Bay (French Derby winner)... For me you are either in one of the 3 camps...

But I don't think its finished for GH...

Incidently, the rule I usually use to find an Arc winner is French horse first than everything else second... but some times an exceptional horse comes along and pulls that start apart.

Unless GH turns up next year ill be following the French horses for the Arc next year ...

Well done to all GH backers, well deserved. I also hope you chose to have another reback when he drifted out to 13/2 when the draw was made!

Am I correct in saying in Frankie's last 2 Arc wins, both have come from stall 15?

Yeah draw was a concern so often in this type of race ... But didn't put me off backing at 7s on the day ...I think ground was more the key it was riding fast which bodes confidence... If it was raining don't think I would have gone in again... As owner said he would beat Treve on fast ground... And was bullish about it... And he did.

Also it's more about Frankies knowledge of the track - he knew where to place his horse he went wide off line to avoid interference and went inside to get best position early and then set pace to the race... That's the way to play wide at longchamp...

Not many jockeys could get that right without understanding the track ...horse and French stewards bias...takes a lot of bottle to execute that in such a big race.

Sounds like they are strongly considering the Breeders Cup, hope its not too much but would love GH to go as a final run. He owe's them nothing now and not sure that the BC turf would enhance his reputation at all but it would be quite a haul if he managed to win Derby, Eclipse, Arc and BC.

Personally,would like them to swerve breeders cup.

As said nothing to gain beating up same horses in arc and weak usa turf horses.

Normally its good to see connections running top horses and not retiring them early.

However think horn has nothing left to prove,and decsion to retire end of season already made.

Dancing brave similar case and although it didn;t seem to dent his reputation,injury could occur after long european season.

@ribotman yeah I would tend to agree, although I would am tempted to say I would love a fully tuned up Golden Horn turning up and decimating whatever is put in front of him, knowing it will be lightening quick ground just to put an exclamation mark on at the end. I watched the Arc a couple more times today and the other horses come at him and he just extends again, its like he gives them an opening and then slams the door. Although it could just be the camera angle

Fallen angel,1st time i've placed money on gh,in arc due to ground.

Wasnt prepared for speed he showed last furlong and half,noticed on replay frankie hardly touched him last furlong-great horse.

WD Iris. Agree Frankie gave him a peach of a ride also.

I think when you have won the Derby and Arc... you have absolutely nothing to lose and go to the Breeders Cup...

As for too many hard races... some could argue it took its toll on him to win the Arc the way he did ... but when you look at the ease he won ... I think there is a battle left in him...

Dancing Brave went to the BC with more confidence than will GH. He still got turned over. Unfortunately, no-one will no whether he has a race left in him until they try.

Dancing Brave never won going right handed but Golden Horn has a few times. Maybe irrelevant.

Correction never won going left handed.

I have to be honest, with a lot of European horses heading the market - surely home team has nothing much to offer this season.. so will be a known quantity for connections in terms of what opposition they will get.

well he's going to spend the next 20 years of his life eating grass in a field and shagging mares, so why not go to the breeders cup with him. what have you got to lose

Only thing I'd add regarding Dancing Brave was that the Harwood stable blamed the heat on Dancing Brave's performance in the Breeders's Cup. From memory I think it was in California and they reported that the horse lost a lot of weight due to the weather. Kentucky is much cooler.

A good thread this - as an occasional visitor from the football threads, it's refreshing to hear differing opinions aired in a civilised and convivial environment.